07 Nov No more hippity hoppity
And let me tell you: when your stomach’s growling and you don’t hardly have any money in the bank, you’re gonna do whatever you have to do in order to survive. I’m not telling you that it’s going to be sunshine and roses – I’m not a LinkedIn panderer. If you’re coming here for that, then you can leave. I’m trying to be as real with you as I possibly can, that we may be in for one hell of an economic pinch. And some of the people who have really come of age and gone out into the workforce during the Great Resignation where they could just hippity-hop-hop hippity-hop-hop all over the market and get more and more money each time, and the first time that their boss kind of looked at him funny, they said, “Eff off, I’m out of here” . . . the times they are a changing!
-“Bonus Episode: Housing Market ➡ Job Market” published July 4, 2022 https://www.buzzsprout.com/1125110/10898050
Well, I mean, look, it was that way in the job market, too. People could hippity hop all across the market and demand exactly what they wanted. It’s not quite the same climate now. It’s really not. Things are changing. I cannot give you advice, I cannot tell you what to do. All I can do is really say that in my opinion, naivete is coming at too high a price. Burying your head in the sand is coming at too high of a price.
-“⚠️ Emergency Message: It’s Happening! ⚠️” published September 21, 2022 https://www.buzzsprout.com/1125110/11354166
I was warning you that the strategy of imagining The Great Resignation would last forever and pretending you could hippity hop across the job market for more and more money ad infinitum was a pipe dream.
Job hoppers’ pay raises dry up
The pandemic-era labor market saw workers job-hopping with fervor, hoping to snag higher pay and more flexibility. Many did — but workers who are changing jobs now aren’t seeing the same wage gains, according to the latest data from ADP. Job hoppers can now expect to see a mere 2.9% bump in salary, compared to a 10% jump in 2022. The shift could mean more workers hunkering down in their current roles and speaks to a job market where employers are once again in the driver’s seat.
WELL NO DUH.
I don’t do the false modesty routine. If you wanna be 6 to 18 months ahead of the curve, you’re in the right place.
“The ‘Big Stay’ isn’t going away as the labor market stops rewarding job hoppers, according to ADP payroll data”
“Ultimately I think the next phase is ‘loud staying,’” said Sara Causey, owner of Causey Consulting, LLC. “I was alive and well during the Great Recession and whatever you needed to do to keep your job, you did it. If that involved staying late or working on projects you loathed, you did it. At that time, I was working for a company where people called and walked in on a daily basis looking for work but there was nothing to offer them. If we see unemployment tick up — which I believe we will — people will not only settle in at work but will become overt about wanting to stay.”
The final death knell of the Great Resignation has rung. The latest data available from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that workers are now quitting their jobs at the same rate as in the six months that preceded the pandemic.
We are witnessing another shift in the post-pandemic labor market. For a while, workers were changing their jobs at rates well above historic levels. Now, they’re hunkering down and sticking with the same employer.
A deep inspection of ADP payroll data could provide an explanation for the Big Stay’s staying power: Workers who change jobs are no longer being rewarded with pay gains.
The final death knell, LOL. Yeah, I dunno about that. I think the corpse has already been buried in the ground for a while.
What is happening overall in the job market these days?
That’s the question du jour. I wish I had a neat and tidy answer, but I don’t. The gist of it is: fluctuation and transition. I think we still have job seekers who imagine we’re in 2021 and that the job market is hot and candidates are holding all the cards. But CEOs and business owners know that’s not the case. People who experience layoffs are reporting that it’s taking longer than they expected to find another job and I suspect that’s because they listen to mainstream media sources and the Pollyanna Sunshine types on social media who try to keep the narrative going that the Great Resignation will last forever, and that people can hop across the market in perpetuity. I hate to be the bearer of bad news here, but no, that’s not reality.
In your opinion, the Great Resignation is finished?
Oh yes, and it has been for quite some time now for white-collar workers. Quite frankly, Corporate America has not been shy in saying that it wants to hold the balance of power again. When you have collusion between Corporate America, central bankers, and Capitol Hill, who do you think is going to ultimately prevail? John and Jane Q. Public or the rich and powerful?
–https://washington-mail.com/a-great-backlash/ published June 6, 2023
Money was a key driving force behind the Great Resignation. Pay gains from switching jobs began to accelerate dramatically in the spring of 2021. By June 2022, the median year-over-year increase for job changers had hit a record 16.4 % as abundant job opportunities and labor shortages combined to deliver big pay bumps to workers who quit one job to take another.
Those gains now are slowing almost as rapidly as they accelerated.
Did you think Corpo America was gonna allow that to go on in perpetuity? If so, where was your head at?
A BANK OF AMERICA executive stated that “we hope” working Americans will lose leverage in the labor market in a recent private memo obtained by The Intercept. Making predictions for clients about the U.S. economy over the next several years, the memo also noted that changes in the percentage of Americans seeking jobs “should help push up the unemployment rate.”
The memo, a “Mid-year review” from June 17, was written by Ethan Harris, the head of global economics research for the corporation’s investment banking arm, Bank of America Securities. Its specific aspiration: “By the end of next year, we hope the ratio of job openings to unemployed is down to the more normal highs of the last business cycle.” . . . Instead, the memo is focused on the enticing prospect of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, slowing the economy, and bludgeoning workers back into line.
That was published on July 29, 2022 and I’ve linked to it umpteen hundred times. This BoA executive wanted to see conditions more favorable to Corpo America by the end of 2023.
And looky looky what’s happening.
You can either expect crony capitalism to do what’s best for John & Jane Q. Public (LOL) or you can wake up and get real.