16 Oct Yet again: you heard it here first
Image made by me using Canva
Something else I want to talk about before I sign off for this part of the broadcast: I was so tired today. I’ve been working, I’ve been doing what I got to do to try to get ahead of this thing, or at least keep my arms around it in some way. I was so tired. I did not feel like cooking, dirtying up a bunch of dishes. So I said, “Let’s just pick a place that’s affordable and eat out. I’m worn out. I don’t have it in me, not today. Not today.” The restaurant that we went to was fully staffed. The there was plenty of waitstaff out on the floor. There was plenty of kitchen staff in the back. There was a lady who appeared to be maybe a manager or an assistant manager walking around asking everybody did their food come out in a timely fashion, does it taste good, did they need anything. It was like 2019. I mean, you would not have noticed any labor shortage in there whatsoever. And it wasn’t like “Okay, but Sara, there were only maybe three or four other people in the restaurant.” No, there was a good number of people there the same time that we were. I noticed no labor shortage in there at all. On the way back, I stopped off at the grocery store to go in and get a few things. I saw no labor shortage in there either. None.
-Saturday Broadcast 37, published on February 25, 2023 https://www.buzzsprout.com/1125110/12280439
But is the labor market still tight? Again, not in my opinion and not in my experience. If we’re talking about highly specialized niche roles and/or cleared personnel at the highest levels, then yes, they have options that other job seekers do not. This is reality. If I can find 200 mechanical engineers with Solidworks experience versus only five qualified candidates for a military role that calls for a FS Poly clearance, you do the math. When we’re talking about the broader labor market, no, I do not believe the job market is still tight and all these employers are struggling to find people. When I go in the bank and the grocery store these days, they are fully staffed. We needed to buy food on Labor Day weekend and the grocery store was fully staffed and there was a newly hired young person at the butcher’s counter who was getting apprenticed. But hey: labor shortage, no one wants to work, there’s no staff anywhere. 😒
-“Job Market Breadcrumbing” published on September 11, 2023 https://thejobmarketjournal.com/f/job-market-breadcrumbing
Even though we heard “Labor shortage! Ca-caw, ca-caw! 🦜” getting parroted in the MSM ad nauseam: I told ya!
Restaurants are fully staffed again
Despite predictions the dining industry would never recover from pandemic lockdowns, by at least one metric it has: Restaurant employment has surpassed February 2020 levels. But this hardly means the impact of the pandemic has been undone. Had the restaurant industry maintained the heightened pace of its pre-2020 growth, restaurants would employ about 1 million more people than they do now, Axios notes. There’s also no question the sector has changed — lunchtime in many downtowns is slower, fast-casual eateries are booming and employment at full-service restaurants declined by 212,000 between February 2020 and August.
–https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/restaurants-are-fully-staffed-again-6464410/ published on October 11, 2023
*lunchtime is slower for now. As more mayors and CEOs demand RTO, things could change unless everyone going back decides to brown bag it – or does so out of sheer economic necessity.
Aneurin Canham-Clyne, listed as Reporter, Restaurant Dive on LinkedIn, writes:
“The recovery of restaurant employment to pre-pandemic highs and the simultaneous slowing of wage growth and turnover indicates a clear, if slight, loosening of the national restaurant labor market. This likely means that workers are losing some power to demand high wages and exercise discretion in job choices, a sign of a shift in market power towards employers.”
What this tells me is: if even the higher turnover segments of the labor market are now employer driven, what do you think is happening in segments that are NOT high turnover?
A few observations in freeform:
+ I don’t believe we have a labor shortage and didn’t believe it when the MSM was spewing it at you every 10 seconds.
+ I don’t believe no one wants to work, all of ____ (insert a younger generation) is lazy and can’t hold down a job, etc.
+ I don’t believe all men between 25 and 55 are unemployed, smoking dope, and living on a girlfriend’s couch or in Gran’s basement.
+ I don’t believe all Baby Boomers are swimming in money and will completely retire with a golden parachute.
+ I knew The Great Resignation was dead long before you heard anything on the MSM. I also knew it was not a permanent change that would last forever. Corpo America was not gonna allow the serfs to job hop across the market for more and more money in perpetuity.
If you wait to hear something on a major news outlet, IMO, you are waiting too late. Way too late.