05 Sep The GOAT job market? Really?

Image by Clker-Free-Vector-Images from Pixabay

 

Jim Brown, The Greatest of All Time

Since 84% percent of those reading this article are too young to have seen Jim Brown play – and I saw him for his whole career – there’s no interfering with my privilege of calling him the greatest of all time. Very possibly, he’s in consideration for the greatest athlete of all time, but that’s a bit off topic. Brown’s recent passing in May brings him to mind as an apt analogy to discuss the performance over the last three years of the greatest job market of all time: our current one.

–https://www.forbes.com/sites/eliamdur/2023/09/04/the-american-job-market-is-playing-like-a-hall-of-fame-running-back/?sh=3ec3af341937  emphasis mine

Excuse me, but what?

WHAT?!?!

A while back, a neolib accused me of being “a recession fearmongerer.” Not a fearmonger, mind you, but a fearmongerer. When I clicked on his profile, it was a sea of memes and propaganda images of how fantastic Obama and Biden were and still are. In his mind, Biden is actually controlling the economy and doing a bang-up job with it. 😆 If someone still thinks the US President controls the US economy and that the donkey is better than the elephant or the elephant is better than the donkey, there’s not a damn thing I can do for them. Other than say, “Wow. Bless your heart,” and move on.

So it is here. Are we in the midst of the GOAT job market? I think you already know my response to that.

While pumping out huge monthly job gains for the past two and a half years – just what it should have done – our job market is now cementing those gains. But to see it, we must look at it the right way. Brown used his brute power to run right over you when he needed to, and his flexible, almost dainty dance steps to run past you. In the end, he is still the only player to run for 100+ yards per game for an entire career.

-Forbes, Ibid.

Mmmm. You sure about that? Pumping out huge gains, huh. Considering I never believed that and the government is now quietly revising its numbers around those supposedly massive gains, Imma say, “No, thank you. I disagree with this analysis.”

Also – we have to “look at it the right way.” Really? Seems to me that if we actually did have a robust labor market, that wouldn’t be necessary. Things would be clear and observable.

August job gains came in at 187,000 – a far cry from the gaudy numbers of 2021, 2022, and the first half of this year – and the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.8%. Put those two together and it’s easy to see why critics are tripping all over themselves to declare that the job market is weak.

It is not weak at all. It’s just doing what we need it to do now. Meteoric growth like what we’ve seen is not sustainable and dangerous, as it would, sooner or later, require strong and frequent action from the Fed. The less of that, the better (although welcome when necessary). But what we needed then was job growth – and we got it. Plenty of it. Power.

-Forbes, Ibid.

Gaudy. I see. The numbers before were just flat out ostentatious they were so good. So, I mean, like, naturally they were gonna come down. 😣 This is a narrative we’re seeing throughout the MSM these days. The job market is cooling but is still supposedly robust in spite of increased unemployment claims. *Yawn* Sure. Right. Of course.

This also gives “justification” to The Fed because, as the author asserts, the market was simply too hot. The Fed had to come in with strong action to cool it down. It simply has to be done. *Yawns again*

Remember how many times I dropped this to warn y’all:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/fed-interest-rate-hikes-unemployment-increase-layoffs-inflation/

Ultimately, these central bankers and their cronies will do whatever the hell they want. They don’t actually need a justification, but they float one out there for theater’s sake. And here we go. What a narrative: labor market just too hot – like Icarus, it flew too close to the sun – so now The Fed simply MUST cool it off. It’s like taking an icky medicine but you know you must, little baby. So sit down, shut up, and let the elites handle it all. *Goes from yawning to gagging*

So how’s the job market remaining strong while job creation is at a slower pace?

-Forbes, Ibid.

It isn’t. IMO, it isn’t. Full stop.

For instance, when is an uptick in the ranks of the unemployed not a bad thing? When the civilian labor force, the total of those who are working plus those who are looking for work, adds 736,000 while the ranks of the employed grew by 222,000. That difference of 514,0000 is extreme, and shows up from time to time, but is clearly attributable to strong confidence. Many of those people will find work soon. For the moment, though, they’re unemployed but optimistic.

-Forbes, Ibid.

Oh, will they? When time to hire is going up and folks are talking of 9+ interviews for jobs, forgive me if I don’t share this optimism. And I suspect most unemployed people who are struggling do not share it either.

There are still 8.8 million open jobs.

-Forbes, Ibid.

Looks around like John Travolta in Pulp Fiction.

There are? Where? At Chipotle and Starbucks or are these jobs that pay a living wage and full benefits?

Here’s another thing. Wages are still rising, although at a slower rate than in the last comore people are working, making more money at their jobs, and there is still an abundance of jobs for those who are still looking.

-Forbes, Ibid.

Are your wages rising in parity with inflation? Or are you continuing to feel the pinch? I’m betting it’s the latter, not the former.

Do I think we have a robust, resilient, greatest of all time job market these days?

HELL NO. 

I’ve been involved in the job market every day for more than a decade and as I’m speaking to both clients and candidates alike, no one is on the phone telling me, “Jeepers. This is the GOAT of job markets. It is so amazing, guys!” 😣