08 Jul Saturday Broadcast 55
✔️ ICYMI news, 7/3-7/7.
✔️Somehow, some way, the job market is still doin’ great and wages are goin’ up. 😆
✔️Early retirees are not all wealthy and retiring to live on a yacht? Really? Who’da thunk it. (Anyone with common sense.)
✔️Global power grabs and more “surprises” to come.
Links where I can be found: https://causeyconsultingllc.com/2023/01/30/updates-housekeeping/
Need more? Email me: https://causeyconsultingllc.com/contact-causey/
Transcription by Otter.ai. Please forgive any typos!
Welcome to the Causey Consulting Podcast. You can find us online anytime at CauseyConsultingLLC.com. And now, here’s your host Sara Causey.
Hello, Hello, thanks for tuning in. Today it is Monday, July 3. Since tomorrow is the July 4 holiday here in the US, I intend to be off, I intend to take a break to rest and to decompress. I think we may also have storms again. Not not my most favorite way to be spending a holiday but you never know about power outages. So on that note, I intend to be off unless something truly monumental, truly cataclysmic and bizarre happens to where I feel the need to record a Tuesday portion. I would just assume that the Saturday broadcast will skip Tuesday, July 4, because I need a day off. on Thursday’s broadcast. I will be talking about how can we keep a positive attitude? And how can we expect good things to come flying out of the unknown rather than bad things. When we’re in an economic downturn? This is not about toxic positivity, toxic optimism, toxic gratitude, but rather a quest to get on the middle path. So that I’m not feeling Pollyanna sunshine. Oh, everything’s great, huh? Even though really it’s not, but then also not being your Oh bother. Everything’s terrible. Everything’s bad, Bob, Bob. And that has been a sort of pet project of mine, because I have to be honest with you. Clients are feeling emboldened to treat people like dirt, whether that’s full time w two employees, contract labor, freelancers, et cetera. And after a while, that kind of treatment can really wear on you. And even though you know it’s not personal, this is about the economy. It’s a backlash to the great resignation, etc. It can be difficult to balance all of that out. If you’re feeling tired, and you’ve got stress like we all do right now. I’ve used the analogy before of a pressure cooker. You’re dealing with heat and power outages and bills and trying to keep food on the table. The last thing that you want is to have a boss or a client who treats you like complete and utter poop. That is not a good feeling. So on Thursday, I will be talking about that. On Tuesday. I will hopefully be talking about nothing. I will hopefully be resting and relaxing and enjoying the holiday. Over on Yahoo Finance Today we find stocks edge up ahead of holiday. Tesla and Evie stocks rally. US factory activity shrinks by most in three years. That cannot be good news. Americans struggle to pay rent as luxury home constructions rise. Not a surprise is it? the haves and the have nots the people that can afford luxury homes, designer handbags and designer clothing and jewelry. They’re not nearly as stressed out about the economy as those of us in the working class and the working poor. I remember reading stories more than once for you on the Saturday broadcasts about designer shops saying well, we’re really not hurting, we’re really not seeing a reduction in foot traffic in our stores. Our consumers are still buying. I also remember talking about an article that regarded stealth wealth, where people that were wealthy had started to dress down and to tone down the appearance to not go out with logo clothing or dripping in jewelry because of crime and concerns about crime. I feel like that tells you everything that you need to know about what people are thinking and how people in the 99% are struggling but people in the 1% are not It’s not any big deal to them if there’s inflation. We also find Gen Z are the most disgruntled workers. I don’t know about that. I’m an XOR. And I’m telling you some of the ill treatment and crappy unprofessional things that I have seen going on in the job market as well as the freelancing market. There have been some days let me tell you, we also find jobs report and July 4, what to know this week. In this article we read investors kick off a new week, month quarter and half of the year in the week ahead with the crucial June jobs report capping what will be an abbreviated and disjointed week of trading. Economists expect job growth slowed in June do your flank while the unemployment rate is forecast to decline again. What Friday’s report will serve as one of the only few crucial data points that fall between now and the Federal Reserve’s next policy announcement, which is set for July 26. And quote, okay, so economists economists expect that job growth slowed in June. But somehow the unemployment rate is forecast to decline, not to go up but to decline again. Hmm. Yeah, I wonder, you know, just just my opinion, just my theory, it could be wrong. But I wonder if this has anything to do with the Fed planning to hike interest rates again, and using this supposedly resilient job market, robust job market as one of the reasons to do it. I do not think that we have any 3.7% unemployment rate and whatever they decide it is this time around. If it goes down again, I can already preemptively telling you I don’t believe that either. Over on the side panel for LinkedIn today, we find inflation won’t dampen July 4, Americans will be spending an average of $93.34 per person. Holy cannolis. On food items for Fourth of July cookouts, barbecues and picnics this year, says Axio, citing a National Retail Federation survey, that’s a roughly 10% increase from last year where consumers spend an average of $84.12. Yet high prices aren’t stopping any celebrations. Around 87% of Americans say there’ll be celebrating the Fourth of July this year, with 65% of those planning a barbecue or cookout. The most popular items on the July 4 Barbecue list include hamburgers, hot, hot dogs, pork or beef brought chicken and vegetables. Uh huh. Okay. Yeah. So something else that I intend to talk about on that Thursday episode is being in the present moment. But that that being in the present moment should not be used as an excuse to be the grasshopper who’s saying all summer, like when you are involved in agriculture, when you have animals, whatever season you’re in, you’re always looking ahead to the next season. So in winter, we’re already thinking about spring and summer. In summer, I’m already having to think about the fall in winter mean, we’re getting into the time of year where hay is getting cut and baled. Farmers and ranchers are selling what they have extra to offer. This is the time where you have to start planning ahead for how you’re going to take care of your animals in the winter. If you have animals that need to be sold, maybe you have some cattle that need to go off to another herd for genetics or for whatever reason you need to be thinking about doing that. In my mind, and I’m not trying to sound like a stick in the mud or somebody that’s anti patriotic. It’s not that $93.34 per person on food items. So we’re not even talking about people that think it’s some big hairy deal to go out and pop off expensive fireworks. Almost $100 per person just on the cookout. That’s crazy. To me, it is absolutely absurd. If you want to have a staycation if you want to have a cookout and you want to go up to the fireworks warehouse and drop $1,000 To have an hour of fun you do you I’m not gonna tell you not to do that. It’s your business, and it’s your money. All I can do is speak for myself. And we’re not doing anything of the sort. I just think that’s crazy. And then you have here, here’s one of the things that I think drives everyone nuts when you have that relative or that friend who spends money on frivolous nonsense. And then they show up at your door asking for a handout and it’s like, well, maybe you shouldn’t have gone and spent $1,000 at the fireworks warehouse. Maybe you shouldn’t have had a $600 cookout for one freaking day out of the year. That’s That’s crazy. And I think we all know those people. One of the decisions that you will have to make, in my opinion, is whether you’re going to make your provisions and adequately prepare for this economic downturn, or whether you’re going to be the grasshopper who sang all summer. And if you are the grasshopper who sang all summer and you act irresponsible. Do you have somebody that’s going to give you a bailout? Do you have somebody in your life that’s going to help you get through that? It’s a point to ponder. On fortune.com We find the 10 best cities to work remotely while you still can. Interesting choice of language there while you still can. I published a blog post earlier today about the latest work from home research and how it’s pointing to a real decrease in surprised even me to be honest with you a real decrease in the num have people who are reporting that they are still 100% Fully remote, versus people that are back 100% But unseen in the cube farm and or having a hybrid arrangement? It, it was astounding. So I do think that that language is telling here are the places where you can work remotely while you still can. Hint hint, wink wink, nudge nudge. Also unfortunate.com we find two thirds of the US is at risk of power outages this summer. But it’s not stopping Americans from electrifying everything in their homes. Well, of course, it’s not Nobrow project COVID for MediCal. Why, why would you plan ahead? Why would you think ahead? Why would you consider the ramifications of not being prepared, just electrify everything and then ignore the fact that you’re at risk for a power outage. It was very telling for us it was very educational when we had to go through the power outage in the heat in the swelter after that tornado. I thought okay, it’s it’s time to make some different choices to make some different decisions and to really, to really get real. It is so uncomfortable. I know. I know. I know, the old timers that feel like central AC ruined, everybody made everybody soft. I’m not a freakin pioneer out on the Oregon Trail. I’m not I have a heart arrhythmia. On top of that, I have my limitations of what I can deal with. I also in the past have had a heat stroke. And I think that that makes you more susceptible and more sensitive to heat. After that’s happened to you. I have to work with what I’ve got people. I’m not as hardened and as tough as somebody that was out on the Great Plains 200 years ago just making it do what it do. I’m not and it it revealed to us like okay, would we really be able to sit in the house for weeks or months with no electricity and no air conditioning and no heat in the winter? Like are we built for that? I think some people are gonna find out if they haven’t already. Also unfortunate.com The global economy is due for a reality check warns the central bank’s bank? I think so too. But the crazy thing is you can publish stories like that you can link to mainstream media news sources fortune.com is where you can find this article. And yet you will still have idiots saying what must just be a conspiracy theory queue up the angry neoliberal man here. That’s just a conspiracy theory. So nevermind that this appeared on a major mainstream not far right not far left publication. The global economy is due for a reality check warns the central bank’s bank and compare with the theory. Okay. All I can say to people that are of that mentality is good luck because I think you’re probably going to need it. Today it is Wednesday, July 5. It was nice to have a day off yesterday. It’s always a little bit random when it falls in the middle of the week instead of on a Monday or a Friday where you can fold it in and make it part of a long weekend. But I’ll take what I can get. It was nice. Nevertheless, over on CNBC Today we find Fed sees more rate hikes ahead but at slower pace meeting minutes show Dow slides 100 points as traders assess latest fed comments. 10 year Treasury yield jumps as traders absorb Fed meeting minutes. Biden administration gives student loan borrowers some leeway when payments restart. These are the 10 highest paid CEOs in the US Oh boy. So when we click on that and we look at their chart, I’ll drop a link to this you check it out for yourself. When we take a look. We find Stephen Schwarzman of Blackstone, Sundar Pichai of alphabet. Steven sure of hertz, very McCarthy of peloton, Michael Rapinoe or rapido I’m not sure Live Nation, Safra Catz of hertz, Douglas Ingram of ser reputa therapeutics. I think that’s how you say it, I’m not sure. Bill ready of Pinterest, kiwi Kamara of CES disco and Tim Cook of Apple. Wow. You know, you’re talking about some serious money when Tim Cook of Apple is actually at the bottom of the chart. 99 million. Then you have Stephen Schwarzman at $253 million. And just yeah, that yeah, you will still have people that act like oh well CEOs of these powerful companies like they don’t really have any power outside their own company and it’s like, do you see how many millions of dollars they’re pulling in? Money is power. Over on Yahoo Finance, we find some Fed members wanted to hike rates in June but agreed to pause. In the byline. We read minutes from a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee show some Fed officials wanted to hike rates last month despite agreeing to hold them steady. Stocks fall amid China data and Fed minutes. It’s not just tech, all kinds of stocks are hitting highs. Wow. Well, let’s just check it out. In this we read. It’s not just mega cap tech leading the markets higher this year. Look around and you’ll notice a variety of big name stocks starting to join the 52 week high club. In some cases, they’re reaching record peaks. Walmart closed at an all time high of $158.20 on Monday. During the same session, Chipotle Mexican Grill hit an intraday record following its record close of $2,139 last Friday, fast food chain McDonald’s also recorded its best closing price ever last week at $298.41. Until now, analysts had noted that this year a massive market rally had been fueled by a handful of tech stocks. I’m gonna button for a second and say no, you find it interesting. Not saying there’s any causation here. Just saying Don’t you find it interesting that we’ve seen tech layoffs. But then now we’re also seeing a quote massive market rally fueled by tech stocks, things that make you go hmm. Apple recently became the first US publicly traded company to close with a $3 trillion valuation. Other notable names that have recently hit 52 week highs include GE and home improvement retailer Lowe’s. Generally speaking for me, it’s just further and further evidence of breath expansion. JC parrots, president and founder of all star charts.com recently said in a note to investors, this is the sort of thing that happens in bull markets. He added yet another strategist caution against getting too bullish too soon. Under the surface, the picture has modestly broadened over the last few weeks. However, it’s still unusual that we’re approximately nine months off of the October lows, and the rally is not broader. Chris Varone, Managing Director at strategist and Ross Mayfield investment strategy analysts at Baird, private wealth management recently wrote in a note to investors in quote, this is another situation where you have to make your own decisions. Whether you invest in the stock market or not is almost irrelevant to the point. Obviously, you’re going to be paying attention to the markets if you’re invested in them. But even if you’re not, you have to decide for yourself because even in this article, we have some people going oh, look, this is the sort of thing that happens in bull markets, but then we have other strategists telling us, wait a minute. Superficially, it may look like everything’s okay. That doesn’t mean it really is you. You have to call me out and talk. You have to make your own decisions. Look at the preponderance of evidence and decide for yourself. Also, before I sign off for this portion of the broadcast on Yahoo Finance, we find the virus could still surprise us says former White House COVID czar. Yeah. Huh, about that. I find it interesting. Now, before I ever even read this before I ever even mentioned anything else. Allow me to just go ahead straightaway and play the angry neoliberal man shouting at us. That’s just a conspiracy theory. Might as well just get that right out of the way. I find it interesting that we have this headline on Yahoo Finance, the virus could still surprise us. And then also published yesterday on the Federalist. The UN is planning to seize global emergency powers with Biden’s support. The byline reads the proposal might be the biggest attempted power grab in the history of the United Nations if approved the United States as we know it could cease to exist. Is that true? I don’t know. As as you know, if you tune in on regular basis if you read my blog post on a regular basis, I don’t get into zombies eating your brains Mad Max, the Thunderdome. Armageddon is upon us. Go to your bunker and just pray because there’s no possible way that any of us is going to survive the next few days. I don’t get into all that. To me, it’s similar to the clickbait that you find on YouTube. You’ve got three more days you’ve got two more months. If you don’t stock up your pantry with salt, sugar and fat you’re gonna die. That’s not for me. If you want to do that, it’s your choice. You have to make the bed This decision for you and your family just like I have to make the best decision for me and my family. Maybe you feel like that’s what you need to do. Maybe you feel like you need to head for the hills and store a bunch of canned goods in a cave somewhere and hope nobody else finds it either. I don’t know. So I don’t get into the scenario of the United States as we know it could just simply cease to exist. I’m not sure about that. However, I do think you need to be paying attention to this idea of a power grab. I’ll read just a little bit from the Federalist for you now, in September 2024, less than two months before the next US presidential election, the United Nations will host a landmark summit of the future where member nations will adopt a pact for the future. The agreement will solidify numerous policy reforms offered by the UN over the past two years as part of it sweeping our common agenda platform. That right there. Just the fact that there’s going to be a meeting talking about a pact for the future and a common agenda. That’s enough for me to be like, Nope, don’t trust it. I would be skeptical. I’ll read a bit more. Although there are numerous radical proposals included in the agenda, perhaps none are more important than the un plan for a new emergency platform, a stunning proposal to give the UN significant powers in the event of future global shocks such as another worldwide pandemic, and quote, There you go. So let’s juxtapose them together on Yahoo Finance, we find the virus could still surprise us, according to the former White House COVID czar. And then we also find this information future global shocks, such as another worldwide pandemic, the UN wants to have a plan and to have significant powers in place in the event of future global shocks. Do you not think that it’s possible, not saying this is fact? I don’t know. It’s only my opinion, and it could be wrong. Do you not think that it’s possible, it exists somewhere within the realm of possibility that they’re planning on future global shocks? There, they’re really gearing up for the possibility that there could be another that hits everybody and they want to be ready to roll quickly. It’s food for thought.
Are you looking for more? Don’t forget, you can find Sara on her blogs at CauseyConsultingLLC.com. And at SaraCausey.com. You can also read her content on Medium and Substack. On with the show.
Today it is Thursday July 6, one of the main topics of news for the day is how robust how resilient the labor market still is. Over on CNBC we find Dow falls more than 300 points as jobs data raises fears of future rate hikes. Two year Treasury yield hit 16 year high after ADP jobs data shatters expectations. My god it is so robust, it has shattered expectations. Mortgage rates soars to 7.22% after strong economic data. private sector companies added 497,000 jobs in June more than double expectations ADP says. In the TLDR key points we find private sector jobs surged by 497,000 in June well ahead of the 267,000 gain in May, and much better than the 220,000 estimate. Leisure and Hospitality lead with 232,000 new hires, followed by construction with 97,000 and trade transportation and utilities at 90,000. The unexpected jump in payrolls comes despite more than a year’s worth of Federal Reserve interest rate increases. And there’s the rub. In the article we read the unexpected jump and payrolls comes despite more than a year’s worth of Federal Reserve interest rate increases aimed in large part to cool a jobs market in which there is still nearly two open positions for every available worker. I mean, to me, this is all just clear as day it just it is. This is further in my opinion, this is further justification for the Fed, to not only raise interest rates but to crash the job market. This is part of the Hush little baby, take your medicine. We’re gonna have to go through some tough times because of all of these red hot markets, but it has to be done also funny enough on CNBC, we find job openings fall by half a million. Okay, so the private sector companies added article was published Thursday, July 6 at 8:15am. Eastern time. And then job openings fall by half a million was published Thursday, July 6 at 10:41am. Eastern time. You just can’t make it up. In the TLDR key points for this one, we find the job openings and labor turnover survey showed that listings in May fell to 9.8 2 million down 496,000 From April and below the 9.9 million estimate, quits often an indication of a tight labor market where workers feel confident they can leave their current jobs for better opportunities increased by 250,000. The ITSM services index for June posted an unexpected increase to 53.9. Yeah, I don’t know about that. I am. Yeah, I mean, just even trying to make sense of this is really a fool’s errand in so many ways. Do I think that job openings are down legitimately? Yes, I did. I was on the leading edge of warning knew about jobs that were not even real. Jobs getting posted for optics, only companies going out of business. And yet still having all of these open requisitions on their damn website the same day they go under? Yeah, I think job openings are down. I don’t I would be skeptical of the idea that voluntary quitting is still going up. Are there still people that are quiet quitting phoning it in doing the bare minimum? Yeah, I’m sure that there are. I’m sure that there are. And I would imagine that the types of people who are doing that I’m gonna get hate mail for this. And that’s fine. I know how to use the Delete button. I would have to imagine that the people who are still doing that are people who just aren’t aware of the reality of the economy. They probably do think that we have this 3.7% unemployment rate. And still, we have to legit open jobs for every one unemployed person. In my opinion, if you are doing that you are doing it at your own risk. Who is going to come and save you? If you decided to listen to the hot air and hopium crowd, you read mainstream media news articles were literally in the same day, you can find private sector companies added almost half a million new jobs in June. And then a couple hours later job openings fall by half a million. That’s the world you’re living in. And so I think if you choose to listen to economies churning and burning people are doing great inflation is a fading the job market is red hot. That is on you. Plain and simple that is on you. Over on Yahoo Finance, we find mortgage rates hit highest point of the year. US job market shows fresh strength with ADP and layoff data. In this one, we find the US labor market showed fresh signs of resilience. Have you noticed? Have you noticed the language the verbiage that all of these different outlets tend to share? It’s resilient, it’s robust, it’s red hot. The US labor market showed fresh signs of resilience on Thursday as private hiring surge, layoffs slowed and filings for unemployment benefits stayed relatively low. US companies added almost half a million jobs last month, the most in over a year. According to data from ADP Research Institute in collaboration with Stanford digital economy lab, a separate report from challenger gray and Christmas. That’s also a company that we see all the time, Challenger gray and Christmas showed announced job cuts by US employers fell in June to an eight month low. While the ADP data often differ from the government’s employment report, which is due Friday. The figures are consistent with a broader trend of a labor market that’s barely cooling in quote. Yeah. Okay, I’m gonna be the broken record again, do you have an RTO survival plan in the event that you are working for someone else and you’re in that I don’t hold it so therefore I don’t own it and I don’t make the true decision situation. Are you prepared if they call you back to be but in seat if they bought into a hybrid model for now. And they’re allowing you to work two or three days at home as your puppy treat. Are you prepared for the, in my opinion, inevitability for most people that you’re going to be going back Monday through Friday? Are you ready for that? Do you have childcare, eldercare, pet care? Do you know how you’re gonna handle that? Do you have a job loss survival plan? Or are you planning to just throw your hands up in the air and say, well, I’ll, I’ll deal with it. If it happens. I don’t even want to think about a layoff. I don’t want to think about who I’d call or what I would do. Things are probably going to be okay, so I’m just gonna wait till it happens, and I’ll deal with it, then. In my opinion, if you do that you are doing it at your own risk.
Today, it is Friday, July 7, the main headline for the day is regarding the jobs report, as you could probably imagine, so yesterday, we got a fair dose of what I would call, in my opinion, continued job market hopium. I published an article about that earlier today on the job market journal. I’ll drop a link in case you want to check it out. But essentially, yesterday, it was all about a DPS report telling us that private sector jobs surged almost by half a million. Well, we Sally, what great news. Okay, well, today, we get the government based jobs report. So on CNBC, we find here’s where the jobs are for June 2023. In one chart. The June jobs report showed signs that the US labor market may be losing steam, after surprisingly strong growth earlier this year. But some categories still saw big jumps in employment last month, the biggest area for growth was healthcare and social assistance with 65,200 jobs added. According to data from the Labor Department, that category expanded by more than 70,000 new positions when education is included, as some economists do. So when we look at their little handy dandy chart, we see that health care plus social assistance is at the top, then government then construction, then leisure and hospitality, then professional and business services, financial activities and manufacturing. Information is just simply listed at zero. mining and logging is minus 1000. wholesale trade is minus 3.6 1000. Transportation and warehousing is minus 6.9 1000. And retail trade is minus 11.2 1000. I’ve said before and will apparently have to say again, there are some segments of the economy that seem to always say that they’re in a labor shortage. I don’t think I have ever heard of a year where there was a surplus of doctors and nurses. I don’t think I’ve ever heard that think all I’ve ever heard the whole time I’ve been alive is that there’s a nursing shortage. So do I believe that there are still people getting hired in healthcare? Yeah, I’m sure there are. Same thing for social assistance. There are plenty of people who need social assistance right now because they’re struggling. Same thing with government related jobs, the government’s aren’t going anywhere. Do I believe that somehow, in the face of all of this, we’ve managed to go from a 3.7 down to a 3.6% unemployment rate? No, I do not buy that. I do not believe it. You can believe whatever you choose to look at the preponderance of evidence for yourself. That’s all that I can do as well. And I’m involved in the job market every day, as I have been for over a decade now. I am not hearing these tales of glory. Oh, I’ve got five offers in hand right now. And each one is successively worth more money. I’m just spoiled for choice. That’s not the average thing that I’m hearing. Now during the Great resignation. It was different. But now, no, I’m not hearing those types of stories. Also on CNBC, we find payrolls rose by 209,000. To June less than expected as jobs growth wobbles. Hmm. Interesting. In the TLDR key points, we find non farm payrolls increased 209,000. In June, below the consensus estimate for 240,000. The unemployment rate was 3.6%. Down point one percentage point, however, a more encompassing, jobless level rose to 6.9%. Oh, interesting. Alarm alarm Alert, alert. I’ve told you before I don’t even know how many umpteen 1000 times in my opinion, if you wait to be officially told something, you are waiting too damn late. ipso facto by the very nature of the problem. If you are trying to get out ahead of something, and you wait until the something has already happened. It’s too late. Just by the very nature of your conundrum. You’ve waited too late. If I were to say we need To prepare because we could have another tornado this summer. For whatever reason, it has turned out to be a stormy, humid tropical type of summer. So last summer we had the drought. Remember I talked about how my corn literally burned it desiccated. I’ve never seen anything like that before it burned in the sun. And it was so dry, the ground was cracking open, it’s difficult to get hay, because of the drought, what you could get often was not super great quality, and it was super expensive on top of that. Now, we’re on the opposite side of the spectrum where it rains almost every day. And it’s not just rain or little, you know, garden variety showers, it’s thunderstorms, where they’re putting out watches and warnings. And they’re talking about hail damage and high winds and possible power outages all over again, it’s been something of a nightmare this summer. Because we’re on these extremes. It’s either drought, and you’re not getting anywhere near enough rain or you’re getting too much rain, or these dangerous thunderstorms. If I were to say I want to get out ahead and be prepared for a tornado, but I wait until a tornado was already hit. It’s too late. It’s too late. However, a more encompassing jobless level rose to 6.9%. I’m going to ask the question, you know I am if they’re willing to tell you 6.9% How bad is it? Really? I don’t personally think that 6.9% is an accurate number either. I sure as hell don’t think 3.6% is accurate. But I also don’t really think that 6.9% is accurate. either. It’s taking people too long of a period of time to rebound from a layoff or from getting fired during the Great resignation. I mean, think about it. If somebody came on the job market, they could find something quickly, and in fact, have multiple offers in hand. I’m just simply not seeing that right now. I’m not. If we go over to John Williams site shadow stats. His estimate is that right now, true unemployment is somewhere around 25%. And then it shot up. I think, looking at the chart here that’s either 2020 or 2021 shot up more like 35% I would find that to be a 25% unemployment rate. Even though that sounds high, maybe even high to the point of ridiculous. I would find that more believable based on what I’m actually seeing than 6.9%. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle, in my opinion. But I think it’s more than 6.9%. Also in the LDR keypoints we read government hiring led the job gains followed by healthcare, social assistance and construction wages rose 4.4% from a year ago, slightly higher than expectations. Oh, I see. Okay. So we were told, according to a DPS research, the annual pay had risen at a 6.4% and private sector jobs had surged by almost half a million. But then now we’re finally being told officially I’m using mega big time air quotes here officially, that jobs growth is wobbling. A more encompassing job was level might be like 6.9%. This may be the only warning you get it seriously and maybe I know that that’s Debbie Downer. I’m just trying to keep it real with you. on yahoo finance their analogous story June jobs report US economy added 209,000 jobs in June as labor market cools. In that we read economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected that 225,000 nonfarm payroll jobs were added in June. Friday’s report marks the first time and 15 months that non farm payrolls have come in lower than Wall Street expected. updated data revealed 306,000 jobs were created in May about 33,000. Less than previously reported. The June unemployment rate was 3.6% down from 3.7%. In May, economists had expected 3.6% Oh well. All right. Like Karl Childers in Slingblade All right, man. Sure. Now in a dose of you know, perhaps more accurate reality, if you will. Also on Yahoo Finance. Today we find workers are still rating their retirement savings at record rates. Now that I believe in this we read, The share of workers robbing their future selves remains at an all time high. 37% of workers have taken a loan early withdrawal and or hardship withdrawal from their 401k or similar plan or IRA according to a survey released Thursday by the nonprofit trans America Center for Retirement studies or T C. R s in collaboration with the trans American Institute. To that matches 2020 twos level, which is also the highest level in the history of the survey that people are doing great. Nothing to see here, Move along, move along. Right? Sure, of course they are. Yeah, that’s why they’re raiding their retirement accounts. So those withdrawals underscore why many workers have a pessimistic outlook for their retirement as they grapple with a lack of emergency funds and stretched household budgets that have forced them to tap their nest eggs. The practice could become even more prevalent as new rules make it easier to do so. And quote We of course, they’re going to make it easier to do it. You vill own nozing und you vill be happy. Oh, but wait, wait a minute, Sarah, even though that’s an actual real quote. Let’s queue up the angry whiny neoliberalman: that’s just a conspiracy theory. Yeah, right, that retirement account spend that savings, YOLO and FOMO. You’re not going to own anything anyway, you’re not going to rent all of your possessions. You can live in your little tiny house or your little tiny hovel, and eat your crooked burgers and go into your virtual reality because you know, that’s better than your meaningless, pathetic little life anyway, according to the fat cats and the hyper elites. Of course, they’re going to make it easier. To me, this rings all kinds of alarm bells, it really does people having to sacrifice the idea of retirement, I feel sorry for people who thought that was coming. And then they got the rug pulled out from underneath them. I’ve talked before about Rocco Pindell has articles on medium, and how he has this view of like, Hey, you don’t need to think about full retirement, you need to be thinking about what are you going to do for the rest of your life. And on one of his articles, I commented, it became clear to me as someone on the young side of Gen X, that was just not going to be a possibility for us. It just wasn’t. I remember watching the Enron scandal play out in real time and just thinking, that’s awful. But apparently, we live in the world now where that’s a real possibility. You might think that your pension is safe, you might think that your retirement account is solid, and that you’ve got this golden parachute that’s coming only to find out Ah, JK not really, you’re gonna have to go back to work. In my mind, I would rather be fully prepared to just work. And you know, maybe at some point semi retire or be able to step down to part time employment, I mean, something, I would rather have that expectation than to expect I can fully retire and sit and watch the birds chirp all day or whatever. And then have that dream taken for me. This is the world we live in. They want you to squeeze blood from a stone for as many years as you possibly can. Also not unrelated on fortune.com. Today, we find half of boomers and late Gen Xers who took early retirement during the first COVID Wave have fallen into poverty. Hmm, yeah. See, that’s another headline that I believe that matches with what I’m seeing. I don’t understand this narrative. And it seems to me to be pushed by Neil libs a bit more than Neo cons. But there seems to be this narrative that all baby boomers are rich. They’re all they all have a massive amount of money in savings. They all live in a nice house in a nice neighborhood that’s fully bought and paid for their cars are paid off. They have no personal debt, they have no student loans that they’re still whittling away at. They’re just all sitting pretty. It seems to be part of this generational clickbait that we get millennials and Gen Z are all suffering. None of them have any money at all. But then on the other side of the spectrum, all baby boomers are wealthy. And I’m like, I don’t understand where that bullshit is coming from. I know plenty of baby boomers and plenty of people in on the older side of Gen X that are paycheck to paycheck. Still, this idea that oh, all of the baby boomers have this massive about well, they’re all just doing so good and leaving so little for the rest of us. I don’t know where the hell that’s coming from. Now with the fortune article, I hit a paywall. I don’t want to mess with that. So we can find an analogous article from The Guardian older UK workers who retired early in the pandemic were forced into poverty. In this we read half of older adults who left the UK workforce amid mass redundancies in the first year of the COVID pandemic ended up falling into relative poverty. According to the Institute for Fiscal Studies, or AI F S. Britain’s foremost economics Think Tank said job losses during the early stages of the crisis coupled with the additional health risks faced by older workers were likely to have forced many people into early retirement. Look at the verbiage there forced job losses combined with health risks forced people into early retirement contradicting the assumption that rising numbers taking early retirement were being driven by wealthier individuals who no longer needed to work. It said that as many as 48% of 50 to 70 year olds, who left their jobs in 2020 to 2021 had since experienced relative poverty and quote, thank you. Thanks to somebody for stepping up and telling something that appears to be truthful. Hallelujah. Angels might might be strumming their little hearts and batting their angel wings now. But we have we’ve heard that narrative well, all these people that retired, they were able to they’re just these wealthy baby boomers, everything was already paid off. They didn’t have to work anymore. So they’re out of the job market by their own choice. We shouldn’t count them and unemployment numbers because they left of their own volition. Right, right. Sure. Yep. I know, I get it. I’m gonna sound like a broken record here. But like some of these people that trust the mainstream media, they want to get high on hopium they want to listen to these idiots on social media that go along with the Nothing to see here. People move along, move along narrative. You’re gonna follow those morons right off a cliff just like the Pied Piper of Hamlin. I know I get it. That sounds bleak. And here I am. Just yesterday, I published the episode about how to walk the middle path, even during an economic downturn. I’m going to excuse myself after I’ve done the publication for this podcast, and have a fun, relaxing evening. I’m not going to think about the economy. I’m not going to think about the job market. I’m going to go off and do something else to unwind and to decompress. I feel like none of this absolves me. I then wish all I can do is speak for myself and my family. I can’t speak for you. I don’t give you advice on I don’t tell you what to do. I sit here and I opine for your entertainment only. I feel like none of this absolves me from adequately prepping getting my mind right, figuring out what the hell is going on. There are some people down the road from us that I would hate to know how much money they spent on fireworks because they kept that shit going until, I don’t know like one in the morning. On on the morning of July 5, they popped fireworks from like 9pm to 1am. Solid, it was crazy. So other than us talking about, you know, wish they would quit that crap. So we can go to bed. It’s loud. And it’s annoying. Other than being annoyed by it. We were sitting here like, how, how are they affording that? Where’s that money coming from? Did they just have a credit card blowout. And then here we are like debt is so much more expensive to service right now because of the interest rate hikes which we’re supposed to get more of. It’s like the Neo cons tell us that nothing is ever by chance. Nobody is ever a victim of circumstance. Every single thing that happens to you good, bad or indifferent is your own fault. But then the Neo lives tell you that nothing is ever your fault. You should never exercise good judgment, you should never worry about personal responsibility and Caveat emptor, you’re always a victim all the time. To me, this is about the middle path, you should have enough common damn sense to understand that if you don’t have $1,000 to spend at the firework shack, maybe you ought not to do that. It’s one night. It’s one night of popping those damn things off and annoying everybody else around you. And then what you’ve got nothing you have literally burnt that money up. At some point, man, at some point, there has to be enough personal accountability and common sense for people to say I think it might be wiser to take that $1,000 and put it in a HYSA, or I think it would at least be smart to not run up $1,000 credit card debt buying firecrackers to have fun for one night. Now that’s just my opinion. And I could be wrong. Maybe I am Who knows. I just feel like being in the present moment. Living for the day, appreciating the present moment is good. It just doesn’t absolve you from realizing that you might be alive tomorrow. You might need to plan ahead for tomorrow and next week and next month and not get too far into the FOMO into YOLO. And get yourself in a real bind. Stay safe, stay sane, and I will see you in the next episode.
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