28 Jun A magical Hail Mary Pass
In the byline, we read: “Last year tech companies laid off a total of 154,336 employees, according to Layoffs.fyi.”
So apparently, when I asked the question, “Things are better or nah?” the realistic answer is nah. Quelle surprise.
“More than 202,000 global technology-sector employees have been laid off since the start of 2023, according to data compiled by the website Layoffs.fyi. That number has gone up almost eightfold since mid-January, the website noted.” -MarketWatch, Ibid. emphasis mine
Wowza. So not only are things not better, it appears that the layoff machine is accelerating this year. And supposedly the recession hasn’t even started yet! You and I know better than that, of course, but according to the MSM and the Wall Street fat cats and the White House, we’re not even in the recession yet. My question is simply this: how bad will things actually be by the time some talking head trots out and says, “OK, gang. We are officially in a recession now.” ? I’m remembering Pete Clemenza in The Godfather when Michael asks him how bad things will get after he takes out Sollozzo and McCluskey and Clemenza honestly replies, “Pretty g*dd*mn bad.” Same energy here.
“The World Bank projected global growth will slow in 2023 to its lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis due to higher interest rates, inflation and more restrictive credit conditions.
‘The world economy is in a precarious position,’ said Indermit Gill, the World Bank Group’s Chief Economist and Senior Vice President.” –https://finance.yahoo.com/news/global-economy-to-slow-to-lowest-level-since-the-2008-financial-crisis-world-bank-133416227.html
Any comparison to 2008 is typically not good news.
“The World Bank warns global growth could be even be weaker than anticipated if banking stress worsens or inflation is persistent enough to prompt higher-than-expected interest rates.
‘Rising borrowing costs in advanced economies could lead to financial dislocations in the more vulnerable emerging market and developing economies,’ according to the report.” -Yahoo Finance, Ibid.
What seems likely to you? That we somehow dodge a major bullet here and a magical Hail Mary Pass from the central bankers saves the day or that we see continued banking stress and inflation? Imma have to bet on the latter not the former.
On that note: “The Federal Reserve thinks catastrophe is coming for US businesses,” which was published just this morning: https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-reserve-catastrophe-markets-finance-economists-business-money-housing-mortgage-2023-6
“The share of nonfinancial firms in financial distress has reached a level that is higher than during most previous tightening episodes since the 1970s,” Ander Perez-Orive and Yannick Timmer wrote.
The Fed’s 10 consecutive interest rates — intended to quell historically high prices — threaten to hammer business investment, employment, and economic activity.
Now, the economists said, it’s possible that debt-ridden companies will avoid spending money on new developments or facilities, hiring, or production.
-Business Insider, Ibid.
BINGO. There’s not gonna be money for fat pay raises, people hopping across the job market, and hiring in general. You can listen to the hot air & hopium crowd if you want to, but I’m not gonna!