24 Jun Saturday Broadcast 53
✔️ ICYMI news, 6/19-6/23.
✔️If you live in an area prone to natural disasters, do you have an emergency preparedness plan in place?
✔️”IMF working on global central bank digital currency platform” BuT thAt’S a CoNSpirAcY ThEorY! 😒
✔️Jobless claims at a high but job market still doin’ great. Just a churnin’ and burnin’. Right. OK. Sure.
Links where I can be found: https://causeyconsultingllc.com/2023/01/30/updates-housekeeping/
Need more? Email me: https://causeyconsultingllc.com/contact-causey/
Transcription by Otter.ai. Please forgive any typos!
Welcome to the Causey Consulting Podcast. You can find us online anytime at CauseyConsultingLLC.com. And now, here’s your host, Sara Causey.
Hello, Hello, and thanks for tuning in. Today it is Monday, June 19. Before I get into the headlines of the day, I want to offer up a point to ponder, as I so often say, if you wait to be officially told you’re waiting too late, if you wait until an event is announced, or an event is happening, by the very nature of the predicament, you’ve waited too late to prepare ahead of that event hitting in the late hours of Saturday Night Slash the very early hours of Sunday morning, about five miles northwest of the farm, a tornado blew up. And that was not a fun experience. We were jolted out of the bed by the combination of the power going out, and the insane wind and the noise. I don’t know if you’ve ever experienced a tornado before. But the noise that it makes is so loud. It’s a lot like a freight train. And it’s like you’re standing right next to the freight train. As it’s barreling through. It’s loud. I never did hear the tornado sirens in my community, they may have blown them. And we just didn’t hear them over that freight train noise. I’m not sure. But that’s not a pleasant way to wake up. You know, when you’ve been asleep for two or three hours, you’re in a REM cycle, you don’t even hardly know where you’re at or what’s happening. And you immediately have to spring into action and get to a safe room or get down in the basement. It’s it’s a jarring experience for sure. The good news is we’re fine. The damage that we had is minimal. And all the animals are safe. Everyone’s accounted for no issues there. Honestly, the part of it that was the worst was the subsequent power outage in heat, and humidity. I know plenty of old timers who say that central air made people soft. And I guess that’s true. I’m not going to argue the point on that because we felt it and we felt it fast. It does not take long in the summertime if your AC conks out, or if the power is out. And there’s just no option even to find a window unit or to run fans if everything is just dead. And you don’t have a backup generator, or a battery box or something, some kind of something. It gets so incredibly hot and stuffy and stagnant in the house. That absolutely sucked. And then going into a day where we had heat advisories out. I mean, it’s just it’s difficult to go about your normal routine, the things that you would normally do because you would get hot. And then the only option Well, there were two options that we found. One is either going and sitting in the car and running the air conditioner the vehicle or coming back in and taking a shower with the water as cold as you can possibly get it. That did help. Because the animals still have to be fed, they still have to be watered, there are things that you’re going to have to do on a working farm and ranch period. It doesn’t matter how you feel it doesn’t matter what the circumstances are, there are certain chores that have to be done. There were things that I had planned to do on Sunday that needed to get done, but that had to be delayed because I didn’t want to overexert myself as someone who has had heatstroke before, no, thank you. I don’t want to go through that mess again, ever. It’s horrible. And then, you know, when you have a heart arrhythmia getting overstressed and overheated can trigger the arrhythmia and then that sets off a whole other chain of events. So yeah, my point is, we don’t know when a natural disaster can strike. And it seems to me that in the Midwest, there are plenty of times when the meteorologists will hype up a storm. And then nothing happens and people feel like the little boy that cried wolf. So then when there is a spin up, that turns into a tornado, and the sirens don’t blow and you feel like maybe the weather people were behind the eight ball on it, it’s particularly irritating, like Okay, so when it’s nothing you act like it’s the big one. And then when it is the big one, you are If like it’s nothing great, that’s super helpful. I don’t know why. But it seems to be in vogue right now amongst the Neo libs. And who knows, maybe they’re paid shills, I don’t know. But it seems to be in vogue to act like if somebody believes any kind of conspiracy theory, even if it’s the type of conspiracy theory where we’re told it’s false. And then a year later, we’re told it’s true. They’re comparing that with believing the most absurd things like the moon is made out of cheese, for example. And it’s like, I don’t know what that line of thinking is going to do for you. I guess some people are so entrenched in a particular mindset, that anything that challenges that mindset, anything that tells them you may not be living in a perfect world. It may not be that the state has your back, it may not be that corporate America has your back, it may not be that Wall Street has your back, it may very well be that you and your family need to look out for each other and have a game plan. I don’t, to me, I don’t understand why that’s so difficult for some people to understand. To me, it feels clear as day. And going through a tornado just brings all of that right back and focus for me. I don’t expect the state to help me out. I don’t expect that corporate America or Wall Street is going to give a damn like I expect that myself and my family are going to have to be the ones to rally together and try to get through this. And there have been those stories of neighbors coming together, families coming together and really doing things at a grassroots level. Something else interesting, okay, speaking of collusion between corporate America and the government, in the downtown district, where the businesses are, oh, they had power hast pronto. They had power quick. The rest of us living in residential or rural areas had to wait and sweat and wait and sweat and wait and sweat. But the businesses were taken care of quick. Is that a coincidence? I don’t freaking think so. As I’ve said before, it’s just my opinion, I could be wrong, but I feel like there’s a true difference between emergency preparedness versus doomsday preparedness, people that are on social media telling you that all of Western society will collapse on the same day, you will have nothing. I remember, some of those people were the same ones hyping folks up about food shortages and acting like the day was coming where you would go in the grocery store, and you would find nothing where you would go in the grocery store, and we’d be like Ceausescu’s Romania. And the prices would be changing and going up so fast that what you paid at the register would be different from what the price was when you first walked in, just over the course of a 20 minute shopping trip. That has not happened. At least not where I am. I don’t walk in the grocery store and find nothing. And I don’t walk in and find a chalkboard like you would have found in Romania during Ceausescu era. I hope to God that doesn’t happen. Who knows, maybe I’m wrong, but I think that we have to balance these perspectives out. No, I don’t think we’re going into World War Z, zombies eating your brains, the Thunderdome, all of society collapses on the same day, you wake up and you’re in the stone age, and there’s no technology, I don’t think that that’s likely to happen. I could be wrong, but I just really don’t get into the doomsday apocalypse. Armageddon is going to happen tomorrow. And unless you’re in an underground bunker, you’re all going to die. That’s just not the direction that I tend to go in. I don’t think it makes you a conspiracy theorist or a tinfoil hat person to just simply want to have an emergency preparedness plan. If you live in an area that’s prone to earthquakes, do you have a plan for that? If you live in an area that’s prone to tornadoes? Do you have a plan are to flooding or to hurricanes? To me that just feels like common sense. I know that there are people in the preparedness community who will say like, it’s not a bad idea to just willingly go without power for a 24 hour period and find the gaps in your preps. I always thought that sounded a little silly to be honest with you. I thought, well, who’s going to do that we’re all spoiled to convenience and we’re all spoiled to our creature comforts. But after going through a tornado and power outage during a heatwave. I’m like, Okay, there’s some validity to that. I need to humble up a little bit here and realize that those folks have a good point. Because we figured out gaps in our preps. Let me tell you and we were in here sweating and I thought Like I was ready to just jump off the roof. It gets so frustrating to be hot. It really does. I, I’ve talked before about the pressure cooker scenario, you’re talking about being in a down economy, people struggling to find a job, don’t have enough money don’t have their basic needs cared for. And then you add in terrible, insufferably hot weather you get a pressure cooker you do.
For us, it was like, okay, there was this emergency, we had to just run and we’re scared. And there was, I mean, after you have that adrenaline burst, trying to get back to sleep is a fool’s errand, you’re not gonna be able to do it. So getting very little sleep, having all the emergency and then having to wait. Also, it was there was thunder and lightning even after the tornado had passed, wasn’t safe to go outside. After the storm passed, it was still dark, and we were trying as best as possible with flashlights to see what was damaged and what wasn’t. And to try to, you know, the ranchers will know what I’m talking about when I say count eyeballs, you splash your flashlight out to the pasture and try to count the sets of eyeballs that you see reflected back. Crazy. So it wasn’t even until morning that we could get outside and figure out okay, what happened here? What kind of cleanup are we looking at? Are all the animals safe and accounted for is anybody injured? And that was a really big concern. I do not put emergency preparedness in the same bucket as doomsday Armageddon, Mad Max Thunderdome, et cetera. And I find it unfortunate that sometimes people cross pollinate between those two lines of thinking, and it. I feel like it poisons the well for everybody else, because people go oh, you must be a conspiracy theorist who thinks the moon is made of cheese? I’m not gonna listen to anything that you say. And it’s like, but wait a minute, it is a valid point to to ask how would you handle a grid down situation, because when a tornado comes through, and it wipes out powerlines and it knocks trees down into things. I mean, there was a guy further west of us who died in his home because this ginormous tree fell on the house, and it killed him. You always hope and pray that that is not a scenario that will happen. But when you live in the Midwest, and now the deep south to really is becoming Tornado Alley, when you live in a place where that can happen. A thunderstorm can blow up into a tornado, you have to be aware. And for me, the big takeaway was, we do need to have better preparedness in terms of a power outage, particularly a power outage during some sort of extreme weather, whether that’s extreme cold, or whether that’s extreme heat. I just I do not post heatstroke, I do not respond well to heat, and then post. With the heart arrhythmia, I really don’t respond well to heat. When I get overheated. I just feel like complete and utter crap. It was not a fun time. I know the old timers be like, Oh, you’re just soft. You need to get used to sweat and you need to get used to be in hot as hell in the house. But man, I’m telling you, it it, it was awful. Zero out of five stars do not recommend. If you have not roughed out an emergency preparedness plan, if you do live in an area that is prone to certain types of natural disasters, please take the extra time to get a game plan together in those grid down situations. And by the way, there were certain places to in this area where cell towers were affected. So there were people that were trapped in their house by debris. And then they had little or no cell phone functionality. I get it believe me, I know there are plenty of people who will say well, these preppers that want to talk about not having cell phones not having electricity, they’re just full of it. They’re just conspiracy theorists. You say that until it happens to you. And then when it happens to you, it’s too late to do anything to prepare. You’re just stuck. That person does not have to be you. Here’s the segue speaking of conspiracy theories that really aren’t conspiracy theories. Over on Yahoo Finance, by way of Reuters, we find IMF working on global central bank digital currency platform. But remember, not that long ago if you even mentioned the CBBC you are a tinfoil hat wing nut you are a cuckoo bird cash is not going away. They’re not going to do that that the right wing conspiracy theory. Right. And then here we go. Meanwhile, I’m not even a right winger. That’s one other thing that pisses me off about all of this. I am not a NEO lib or neocon either one. And to me it’s like if someone’s like Well hey, look, it was in Reuters. That’s it right wing conspiracy theory. Well, you’re probably not gonna make it. You’re probably not can’t make it. In this article we read. The International Monetary Fund or IMF is working on a platform for central bank digital currencies or CBDCs. To enable transactions between countries IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Monday CBDCs should not be fragmented national propositions to have more efficiency and fairer transactions. We need systems that connect countries we need interoperability, Georgieva told the conference attended by African central banks in Rabat, Morocco. But see, if you were to say they want to have a global level of control, it’s not good enough to have a national cbdc. There needs to be global CBDCs that can be tracked and traced and monitored. Well, then you’re a conspiracy theorist. There was a writer over on medium, I’ll go back and try to see if I can find that link to it. They had written this article about how the level of surveillance and the capability of surveillance in the US is like something that would put the Stasi to shame. And I read that and I’m like, I’m glad I wrote a comment thanking him for writing this article. And how I felt that it was amazing that you could tell people quite clearly what the state is up to and how it’s usually not good news for John and Jane Q Public, they’ll plug their ears about it. I’ll go back to surfing the very apps that are helping to betray their privacy. Oh, here came the mansplainers: I don’t think the US has anything like the Stasi. That’s a conspiracy theory. I’m like, you probably not don’t make it. You probably you probably not, don’t make it. In my opinion, you’re probably not gonna make it. If all you want to do is look at somebody else’s writing and try to poke holes and play semantics with it. And say that everything literally everything. Now that gets said as a conspiracy theory, you’re probably not going to make it through this downturn. For this reason, at the IMF, we are working on the concept of a global cbdc platform. She said me Alright, there it is right there. The managing director of the IMF has said, we are working on the concept of a global cbdc platform and yet, mark my words, he will still have assholes that say that is just a conspiracy theory. Okay. Well, you have fun. Over on the side panel for LinkedIn, we find SBBs overseas clients on the hook. So that doesn’t sound good. non US customers of Silicon Valley Bank lost their deposits in that lenders collapse, but many are still on the hook for credit lines and loans that were later sold to First Citizens Bank reported the Wall Street Journal, the FDIC, which arranged the sale of SBB guarantees only US deposits. The failed lenders branch in the Cayman Islands held funds of Asian clients including private equity and venture capital firms. Based in the British Overseas Territory. Some of those firms have been offered more time to repay their debt. SVB Financial Group is selling investment banking unit SVB securities to a group led by SVB security CEO Jeffrey leerink and hedge fund bow post group San Francisco’s downtown struggles. What was once a bustling downtown San Francisco for commercial real estate is now mostly empty insider reports. Between some retail stores closing some crime fears tech companies laying off employees and putting more emphasis on working remotely flip traffic has gone down almost 60% compared to what it was in 2019. According to location analytics company, place or.ai It’s also resulted in 18 million square feet of vacant office space. While there is a glimmer of hope and approximately 22% of generative AI startups calling San Francisco home. It’s not currently enough to make up for what’s lost. Interesting. So we have to blame remote work. We have to say it’s their fault. We sort of gloss over retail stores closing crime fears and tech layoffs. People are working remotely. If those Jack wagons would just get back but insane to the office. all would be well. Nikola lays off 270 employees electric truck company Nikola has laid off 270 people in an attempt to reduce costs and focus on the North American market. Only 900 employees will remain as 150 workers were cut from its European programs and another 120 in Phoenix and Coolidge, Arizona were also impacted. The staff reduction will save the company $50 million annually, with the overall effort reducing spin by almost $400 million by 2024. The cuts come in a challenging time for nickel up because leadership shakeups and overall cash issues currently affecting several Eevee startups. Wow. That people are doing great 3.7% unemployment rate all these open jobs. Nothing to see here. People move along, move along. Today it is Tuesday, June 20. on CNBC, we have headlines such as stocks fall to start the week as market rally stalls. And the picture that goes along with the article is a trader, with his head in his hands looking distraught. It’s how we all feel right now, buddy. It’s how we all feel Hunter Biden to plead guilty on federal tax crimes take deal on gun charge. It’s official, student loan payments will restart in October. Education Department says the photo that goes along with that is of a woman looking at a bill with frustration. That’s also how we all feel. But if you were counting on student loan debt relief, or at least having student loan payments pushed back a while longer, while all of this got sorted out. I hope that you’re ready to resume your payments again. And I also hope that you didn’t believe some hot air promise from a politician because so often they turn out to be false. on Yahoo Finance, by way of Bloomberg, we read, more Americans are getting auto loans that exceed the worth of their cars. Folks, that cannot be good. That is not a good sign. More Americans are entering into auto loans that exceed the worth of their cars after vehicle values declined in the wake of dramatic increases during the pandemic a report has found I want to button and say for one thing statement of the obvious that’s how you get upside down on a loan. Second thing is do you not think that the same thing could happen probably will happen maybe already is happening in the housing market. If somebody got into a house, and they grossly overpaid and they’ve taken out a mortgage for way more than the house was really ever going to be worth you know, they’re going to be upside down. That’s that’s coming I don’t see any way around that. Also, today on the Guardian, we find mortgage ticking time bomb I warned up has exploded, says Martin Lewis. The byline reads Commons comm as data shows average two year fixed rate rises to 6.07% and five year to 5.72%. The consumer champion Martin Lewis has said that mortgage ticking time bomb he warned the UK Government about last year has exploded. Lewis said on Tuesday that if interest rates were going to be high over three or four years, people were going to have to readjust their finances. The money saving expert.com founder said that in December, he told a mortgage Summit held by the Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, attended by the bosses of the UK biggest banks that they needed to prepare for a scenario where interest rates soared. I’m going to butt in and say do you think they didn’t already know that? Do you think they needed to be told at a summit? waiting for it to happen would be too late? He said yet now the time bomb has exploded and we’re scrambling about what to do. I can’t see this government bringing in a mortgage rescue package even if it wanted to do so and quote, yep. I said it so many times. I know that I’m a broken record here. If you wait to be officially told you’re waiting too late. I don’t think that any of these cronies, whether you’re talking about in the US you’re talking about overseas, it doesn’t matter. None of this is catching them off guard. None of this is a surprise to them. So the onus is on you as an ordinary average everyday citizen just trying to raise your family and earn a living and have a life. The onus is on you to caveat and tour and to stay aware of what’s going on in these markets. Today it is Wednesday, June 21. It is the summer solstice today the longest day of the year. As you can probably guess I am the most excited about that because it means drumroll please. From this point forward, we go into the dark half of the year. Slowly but surely imperceptibly at first. The days get a little shorter from here and I’m ready. Even though today kicks off seasonal summer. It’s been meteorological summer since the beginning of June. And we have definitely felt it. It is so hot and muggy today. It feels tropical out there. When I was outside. Oh, I don’t know. Somewhere around the seven o’clock hour this morning. It already felt like an inferno. And I’m like how bad is it going to be by two or three o’clock this afternoon? I’m over it. I’m done. I’m ready for the autumn. Like let’s just go ahead and get this over with several headlines today. One that comes to us from Adam is us foreclosure activity see spike in May 2023. Yet it was only this morning that some jackwagon on LinkedIn was pulling a Dave Ramsey telling everybody it is still a good time to buy a house here. If you’re a real estate investor, if you’re a private buyer, it is still a good time to get involved in this market and there is not a housing crash coming. I don’t know what planet he’s on. Maybe he’s looking at the housing market on Mars, I’m not sure. But I will say it again. Anybody that has a vested interest in parting you from your money. Caveat I’m torn. In this article from Adam, we find Adam a leading curator of land, property and real estate data today released its May 2023. US foreclosure market report, which shows there were a total of 35,196 us properties with foreclosure filings, default notices scheduled auctions or bank repossessions up 7% from a month ago, and up 14% from a year ago, if we just held that in suspended animation, and imagine that it wouldn’t get any worse than it is right now. Imagine that it goes up another 14% By May of 2024. Even that would have a bad ripple effect. I honestly do. I think it’s gonna be worse than that. I understand that probably sounds gloom and doom.
I just I feel like I’ve lived through this movie before. 07 08 09 Been there done that. Oh, we’re on CNBC. We have Powell expects more Fed rate hikes ahead as inflation fight as a long way to go. The FTC sues Amazon over deceptive prime sign up and cancellation process. Weekly mortgage demand was flat even as interest rates dropped for the third straight week. Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito takes heat for trip on hedge fund billionaires private jet. Hmm. Does that really seem like that much of a surprise because it doesn’t do me why the Supreme Court still hasn’t decided on Biden’s student loan forgiveness. I’ll say it one more time. If you were planning on that. You need that to become a reality. Any event that it doesn’t, how are you planning to handle it? Robert F. Kennedy Jr’s presidential run gets support from Wall Street veteran Oh meet Malik. Again, like it was ever does. I’ve said before I feel like if that particular politician ever gets anywhere near the Oval Office, it will be in my opinion only it will be because he is friendly with the powers that be anybody that really tries to get in there and become a maverick pretty quickly figures out that that’s not going to fly. That is not going to be the way the situation gets handled. So let’s just look at these two headlines again, but I will say them side by side. Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito takes heat for trip on hedge fund billionaires private jet. Robert F. Kennedy Jr’s presidential run gets support from Wall Street veteran Omi Billy hmm, you know, I’m sure this isn’t the case. But it’s almost like we have crony capitalism. It’s almost like we have pretty clear collusion between Capitol Hill Wall Street and corporate America huh? Imagine that. Also on CNBC today we have How to Tell Your company has layoffs plant some signs will send shivers down your spine career expert says oh boy. Also, in my opinion, only I kind of put this in the category of Ms. lippies. Car is green. Billy likes to drink soda. What are we really going to get out of a mainstream media news article what is going to send shivers down our spine and really be helpful here. I’ll read the start of the year was plagued by waves of layoffs through the end of May companies announced plans to cut 417,500 jobs up 315% from the same period last year, according to challenger gray and Christmas, I will button to say so we have the rate of foreclosure filings going up from this time last year. We also have on surprisingly layoffs going up from the same period last year. We’re at least getting an A mainstream media article The admission that according to these statistics, it’s up 315% That’s a whopping number. If we assume that that data is correct, and we’re getting the full scoop which as I’m sure you know I’m highly dubious that we are that’s pretty freakin bad. Just that number in and of itself. We could stop right there. That’s bad. That is bad. Big names like Disney, Google lift and meta were among those announcing cuts. Figuring out if your company might be next isn’t easy, but there are some clues to watch for experts say There are signs that will send shivers down your spine says Suzy Welch, a career advisor and CNBC contributor. The tech industry has led layoff headlines with more than 206,000 workers losing their jobs so far in 2023. According to layoffs dot FYI, a survey that keeps score of tech roles in the industry. But every industry except for for education, government, industrial manufacturing and utilities has seen an increase in layoffs this year, according to Challenger, Gray and Christmas data, all but and again, remember, we were told by these so called economists, that we were not going to see mass layoffs period. I am so happy that I published that blog post a tragic science, because there’s no accountability. If some economist trots out and says, Here’s what I believe. And it fools people into a false sense of security or it causes people to make investments that are risky as hell, they don’t suffer any consequences for that. They don’t. So don’t forget that before the shitstorm was apparent. To John and Jane Q Public wish we could make the argument it’s still not apparent to some people but roll with me here before it was readily apparent that we had mass layoffs. We were told we would not have mass layoffs. And then when we did have mass layoffs, we were told it would only be Silicon Valley, and big tech. They over hired they hoarded labor. They flew too close to the sun like Icarus, but it won’t be anything else. Now, all this time later. We’re being told in a mainstream media news source, every industry except for for has seen an increase in layoffs this year. You gotta get your mind right people. Retailers laid off 45,168 workers through May while financial firms announced 36,937 cuts the firm found the media industry slashed 17,436 its highest year to date tally on record. Overall layoffs declined to 1.6 million in April from 1.8 million in March, according to the latest figures from the jolts report, a measure that also serves as a recession indicator. I’m gonna butt in and say I don’t believe that doesn’t reflect what I’m seeing in real time in the market. Sorry, I don’t. When the involuntary rate goes up, we are looking at more recessionary times said economist Jose Fernandez and associate professor at University of Louisville. But if the voluntary rate is going up, it’s saying that workers have more demand. So they’re out there trying to get a better opportunity for themselves. Well, I’m no economist as we well know. I’m a staffing and recruiting subject matter expert. I’m in the job market every single day and good luck. If that’s your goal right now, is to get a better opportunity for yourself. You’re just out there shopping. It’s going to take you some time. Now there are I know I can already feel the man spoilers getting primed and ready. They’re sitting there with their fingers hovering a bore above their keyboard and they’re getting ready to send me a message will enjoy Yeah, I can feel the energy. Yes, okay. Well, actually, if you’re talking about incredibly niched positions, certain areas of technology, the healthcare industry, certain industries of government hiring, we’re talking about cleared professionals, people that have higher highest levels of clearances. Yes, those people still have opportunities right now, I’m not gonna sit here and tell you that they can hippity hop across the market and get more and more money each time. I’m telling you that they’re going to have more opportunities than probably anybody else in the economy right now. But I don’t think that it’s really worth our time to get into the minutiae of Well, there are these small little pockets of people that always have more opportunities than the general unwashed masses, I think we need to focus on the broader job market. So if you’re sitting there waiting to type me out, that will actually just save your breath because I’m going to delete it. Amazon Dropbox and Lyft had the biggest layoffs in the tech industry for April. Google and Facebook parent meta platforms are responsible for the most tech layoffs since the pandemic according to layoffs dot FYI, so called War notices can help workers figure out if layoffs are coming. Vivian to a former trader turned influencer, who goes by your rich BFF said in a march Instagram video, war notices get their name from the Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification Act of 1988 a labor protection law that requires companies with 100 or more employees Ways to provide a 60 calendar day notice of planned closings and layoffs. Fair enough. What if your company doesn’t fit into that category? What if you’re working in a small mom and pop shop that doesn’t fall into those parameters? This is food for thought because a lot of people are in that situation. In her video to suggest searching for war notices in your state and others where your company does business to find the state government website that lists companies letting go of employees. However, sometimes companies can avoid releasing these notices by spreading out the layoffs said Susan Hausmann, director of research for the W E Upjohn Institute for Employment Research. So maybe you’re going to lay off 75 Say you lay off 49 One month and 26 Then the next to avoid the war. Notice she said corporate America knows what the loopholes are. They know how to game the system because they are the system. I’m not going to say that it would be completely worthless to look for a war notice. Obviously that doesn’t take that much time out of your day to take a look. What I am saying is that just because you don’t see your company filing a war notice it doesn’t mean that the company will not have a layoff.
Under the heading more ways to scope out layoffs, we find war notices are not the only red flags that can signal pending layoffs. Welch offers three more ways to investigate. Number one, pretend you are an investor and follow news on your company are sure to pay attention to your company’s financial health. Also, no shut three watch your boss for clues. Well, maybe maybe not. If you have a good relationship with your boss, you might be able to suss out some information from them. But not always. I was in a situation years ago, I’m gonna have to be necessarily vague. It is what it is. I accepted a counteroffer. Oh, yes, I did the thing that recruiters always tell you not to do. I did it. I committed the cardinal sin. And I took a counteroffer. And one of the conditions of said counter offer was keeping my freaking mouth shut. I could not tell anybody in the company, what had happened. I was sworn to secrecy. And I was outright told again, for anonymity purposes. I have to be vague here. But I was outright told by somebody. In executive leadership. If you squeal at any point in time, not only will we terminate you, but I will personally box your stuff up and perp walk you out the door. So in order for you to stay here and to take this counteroffer, Mum’s the word, people are not always going to blab to you about hey, I’m really not supposed to tell you that this is going on. But I’m hearing that we’re probably going to have a layoff in the next month might not be a bad idea for you to start looking if you know what I mean. Some people will do that for you and some people won’t. I dare say that, because of how transactional relationships are because of how transactional the economy has become watching your boss for clues or trying to ferret information out of them, that’s probably not going to be the greatest resource. I’m not telling you that it’s impossible. I’m just telling you, it’s highly unlikely, because if they’ve been placed under a gag order, if they’ve been told, if you want your severance package, you shut the EFF up and you say nothing to nobody. They’re going to shut up. Hello, hi, how are you? Anything that signals resource cuts that are not people companies generally will try to cut projects, programs and events before they start cutting staff, you can be concerned that they are coming for people next Welch set in quote. Well, as I predicted, I don’t feel like we get much more out of that than just Billy likes to drink soda and Miss lippies cars green. I mean, but that that that is the kind of tactical practical advice and I’m using air quotes here tactical practical advice that you’ll get from a mainstream media news article. Really, and truly the onus is on you to come up with an RTO survival plan and to come up with a job loss survival plan, because if you don’t, my fear is that you are going to be so screwed going into this downturn. Just like the people that think any anything that falls out of the mainstream purview is a conspiracy theory. And it’s like, well, I mean, good luck. Good luck. If you think that licking the boots of Wall Street, corporate America or Capitol Hill, either one any and any and all of the above is going to be helpful for you then good luck. Over on Yahoo Finance by way of Ben Zynga we find recession will likely be necessary. JP Morgan just issued a strong warning about stocks says the impact of spiking rates is yet to be felt. So, again, we sort of ask ourselves the question, well, which is it slow session, no recession, soft landing. Yeah, there’ll be a recession, then it’ll be shallow and it might be sometime next year. Again, I just I feel like we’re getting breadcrumbed into this mess. So in this we read, while the economy’s recent resilience may delay the onset of a recession. We believe that most of the lagged effects of the past year’s monetary tightening have yet to be felt, and ultimately a recession will likely be necessary to return inflation to target. JP Morgan strategist, led by Marco colonic wrote in a recent note to investors. So this is something that’s going out to investors, ie people who matter. It’s not going out to John and Jane Q Public, those of us in the unwashed masses who aren’t shareholders and who are not considered to be worth a damn in the in the grand course of things. I’ll say it again. One more time. We’re, in my opinion, we’re in a recession already. We have been this mythical idea that a recession is going to rise from the mislike Brigadoon, I can’t get there. I can’t make that make sense in my mind. So I asked you the question as I have done for months now, by the time you’re officially told, forget that the recession has officially started. How bad will it actually be?
Are you looking for more? Don’t forget you can find Sara on her blogs at CauseyConsultingLLC.com. And at SaraCausey.com. You can also read her content on Medium and Substack. On with the show.
Today is Thursday, June 22. I will dive right in I will cut right to the chase. Over on the side panel today for LinkedIn. We find jobless claims that 20 month high new jobless claims came in at the highest level since October 2021. For a second consecutive week in a sign of loosening in the labor market. Wink let’s call it loosening. The first time filings for unemployment benefits reached a higher than expected 264,000. Last week the Labor Department reported Thursday, the four week moving average of the volatile indicator also rose to 255,750. The most since November 2021. The increase increase comes amid layoffs in banking and tech as well as slowing demand for temporary workers. According to Bloomberg, continuing claims, though declined to 1.7 6 million in the week through June 10. Indicating workers have been able to find new work and quote there’s just so much there. Hopefully a number ones right off the bat. I hope none of this is catching you by surprise. I hope none of this is catching you off guard. I hope that you are sitting back saying I already knew this was coming. I’ve been tuning into this lady’s broadcasts I’ve been reading her blogs, this is not a surprise to me, I hope loosening in the labor market isn’t that a very like passive aggressive, touchy feely, I go back to putting on the pastel sweater. And speaking in a very gentle voice very matter of fact, use NLP programming techniques, I’m going to speak to you in a way like you’re a little baby, and I’m wearing a soft, fuzzy Pink Pastel sweater. So I must be very gentle I must be very non violent loosening in the labor market. Right? They’re not going to come out, at least not right now. Apparently, they’re not going to come out and say the labor market is in the 12. A, you need to be preparing accordingly. Unless you are in some niche field. Let’s pay our difference here to the will Joy mansplain or crowd. If you are an emergency room doctor, if you are a highly cleared government professional if you’re in a highly technical niche of it. Sure. Maybe you’re not experiencing a loosening in the labor market for everyone else. Gestures broadly. Yeah, there’s a hell of a lot more going on right now than just simply a loosening of the labor market. A higher than expected number really. If you have expertise in the job market and you’re not a bullshit artist, it’s not higher than you expect. Volatile indicator. In my opinion, this is setting the stage for oops a Daisy who could have seen this coming. The market. It’s chaotic. It’s volatile. We can’t read the tea leaves and neither can you. We couldn’t have predicted it unprecedented times. It’s their excuse to be able to say we didn’t see this coming. We didn’t warn you. It’s like The blog post that I published about a tragic science, economists can trot out and save whatever they want. And if they’re wrong, there’s no consequence. If they influence a bad political policy or a bad economic policy, and it all goes pear shaped, then they can make the excuse. Well, it wasn’t implemented correctly. It’s not that my data was faulty. It’s not that my analysis sucked and was way off the mark. My solutions just simply weren’t implemented correctly. Same thing here, in my opinion, with volatile indicator, oh, it’s a roller coaster, we can’t trust it. Nothing to see here, people. It’s a volatile indicator, right? Okay. Sure, of course it is. It’s a volatile indicator, when that’s what’s convenient for the mainstream media. It’s a stable good indicator, when that’s what they tell you to look at. Again, panic when you’re supposed to panic, calm the hell down and shut up, when we want you to calm down and shut up and get back into cube in terms of slowing demand for temporary workers, that matches with what I’m seeing the amount of contract gigs, temp work, freelance gigs, has gone down. It is a different world from 2020 and 2021. In a lot of ways, if you were freelancing at that point in time, you were good at what you were doing, you treated your clients, well, you could really make a very good living as a freelancer. Now, I mean, it’s the wild west out there, the opportunities are lesser. And unfortunately, that sort of brings out a caliber of clientele. That’s not always great. I will slide in in the midst of this sort of PSA. Beyond the lookout, caveat and tour, I had an experience not long ago with a company I’d never worked with them before. And apparently, they pulled a hot air and hopium stunt on me, I was given a lot of false promises about what was going to happen that didn’t happen about stability, et cetera. And they just absolutely pulled the rug out from under those of us who were working freelance on their project. And I mean, it was just like that, one minute, you’re working and everything is fine. And you think that you’re helping to advance the football down the football field, and then all of your access to the cloud is cut off, and you’re just gone. I understand unfortunately, I don’t agree with that. I’m just telling you, I understand that there are some companies that treat their freelancers and their contract laborers like shit. And it doesn’t matter to them. Whether you are an independent contractor, your 1099 representing yourself or whether you are temping through a staffing agency, it makes no difference to them. It’s like they think that you are a second or third class citizen and they can just treat you any type of way. You are as disposable as a Kleenex, they just blew their nose into pitched in the waistband. Here’s my PSA a number one be on the lookout for people like that. If you get any kind of vibe, that they don’t respect you and they don’t respect the gig, you have to factor that into your decision making. I don’t tell you what to do or what not to do, you may be hurting for money, you may have to take on an aihole client. We’ve all done it at one point or another. Just be aware that at any point in time, if that’s how they feel about contract labor, they can pull that rug out from underneath you and they will feel zero remorse about treating you that way. The second thing I want to say about this is they also typically IT companies like that treat their W two full time employees like dog crap as well. They sort of see the full time employees as only being one rung of the ladder for contract labor. So if they treat contractors and timps, like dirt, they’re not going to treat their full time employees very much better. If you are evaluating a place and you’re trying to decide about company culture, and the organizational structure, if you see that kind of behavior going on. Be aware. Use it as information for your decision making. The last little bullet point their continuing claims, though, have declined. Okay. So they’ve declined, but they’re at 1.7 6 million. That’s a lot of people filing for unemployment. That’s a lot of people struggling and hurting. Even though it seems like they’re trying to end an unhappy story on some some sort of journalistic high note. That’s still a lot of people. This is worth paying attention to in my opinion. Over on on Yahoo Finance, we find stocks mixed tech rebounds as hawkish central banks take back focus. Powell reiterates more rate hikes are coming in 2023 Dow Jones Falls after jobless claims. Powell speech now and Tesla stock downgraded Well, yeah, I’m sure that the Dow Jones did fall after jobless claims be because it’s not good notes. Hi, hello, how are you? Over unfortunate we find a record number of CEOs are heading for the exits as companies face a murky future. Yeah, about that. Why is this important? The fat cats have a much greater finger on the pulse of what’s happening than working class people. They just do they have better access to information, better access to the powerbrokers than you and I do. Oh, I know. I know. I know. I’m just an idiot who thinks that the moon is made out of cheese, because I believe in some conspiracy theories. Hmm, yeah, like the one that we live in crony capitalism and all these eight holes collude together. In my opinion, I feel like the CEOs know that there is a shitstorm brewing. Just like I’m sure that they had some heads up that there was a shitstorm that would be happening in the year 2020. Now you can say that’s a conspiracy theory that that sounds like right wing cuckoo bird nut ball stuff, that’s fine. Pay attention to what they do. There was an exodus of CEOs in 2019 and 2020 turned out to be one shitstain of a year did it not. So now we’re hearing it again. record number of CEOs are heading for the exits as companies face a murky future. What do you think that says about 2024? Doesn’t make me feel optimistic if I’m being honest with you. Also unfortunate we can’t wait. We have to wrap up with yet another hit piece right? Your terrible boss might have a point. A recent study shows that working in an office could have some major upsides.
Ah, yeah, on that note, piece. Today it is Friday, June 23. Over on the side panel for LinkedIn we find fun inflation to call his hangover. Call it fun inflation, the extra spending by Americans on ephemeral items such as concert tickets and eating out even in the face of stubborn inflation, with prices still rising at an annual pace of 4%. Consumers would normally have pulled back on buying all but the necessary durable goods like washing machines. What in expectation of prices rising further. But a post pandemic urge to splurge on more including travel and nights out will likely lead to a hangover by fall as the Federal Reserve responds with one or two more interest rate hikes to deflate the economy. We need to restore 2% inflation in this country on a sustained basis. Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified to members of the Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday. The fun inflation trend is being emphasized by fans of blockbuster acts like Taylor Swift and Beyonce, who are paying eye popping prices for concert tickets and are willing to splurge on pricey airfares and hotel rooms if they are unable to secure tickets in their own towns and quote, wow, a lot going on there. So on one hand, we’re still being told that retail is in the dumper. People are in fact only buying the necessity items. But then here we’re being told that everybody’s in FOMO and Yolo going to see Taylor Swift and Beyonce. I’m inclined to believe that most working class and working poor individuals are in fact cutting out non necessity items, and they’re focused on necessity items. I also wouldn’t immediately put washing machines in category of unnecessary item. I mean, yes, having a washer and a dryer is a very nice thing to have. It’s not necessary, however, for your basic survival. When I think about survival items, I think food, water, shelter and clothing and shoes of some type. But I don’t immediately imagine washer and dryer. It’s a pain in the butt to have to haul your laundry up to a laundry mat and sit there and read a book or serve your phone. While things are washing and drying. I get that I’m not going to tell you it’s a pleasant experience. But you can survive without a washer and you can survive without a dryer. Especially if you have a clothesline. I’m not I’m not really sure how washing machines fits into this but okay. You will have people that hey, screw it. Let’s throw it on a credit card. I promised the kids we go to Disney or I’m obsessed with Taylor Swift for some reason, and we’ve decided that if we’ve got to spend four grand on airline tickets and hotel and and the tickets and all of that, then we’re just going some people will do that. For me personally, I don’t get it. There’s no musician or stand up comic or anybody that I would be willing to spend that kind of money to go see. Nobody I mean if somebody said hey, you get to see this amazing person And but it’s going to cost you like four or five grand to get there. I’d be like not in this economy, are you nuts? I’d be like Sorry, I’m just going to have to miss out. So yes, there are going to be some people that are just going to throw their summertime plans on a credit card and hope they can pay it off later. Then when the poop hits the fan for them, if they have a job loss, if the credit card interest rate gets to a point where it’s crippling, they’re going to be in a world of hurt. We already know that there are people natured like the grasshopper who’s saying all summer, they make fun of those of us who like to prepare that like to read the news and have some leg up on what’s coming. There’s really not much that you can do about that. I will say that, I feel like these types of articles are still being put forth as a justification. I’m using that in air quotes here a justification for the Fed to crash the market. Everything is still so strong, the job market is still so resilient. The economy is still so resilient, you still have people going out doing fun inflation, even though we would think they would be hurting so bad, they wouldn’t have the money to go see people like Taylor Swift and Beyonce. By God, they’re doing it, they’re getting the money from somewhere. So that tells us that everything is still so robust that we need to crash it. I hope that I’m wrong on that. But I mean, to me, it’s like connect the dots here. Over on CNBC, we get a scary headline. Neural link competitor, precision neuroscience conducts its first clinical study to map human brain signals. What could possibly go wrong? Over on Yahoo Finance by way of the telegraph, we get mortgage crisis to wipe out savings of 1.2 million households as repayments set to surge. In that we find the mortgage crisis will wipe out the savings of 1.2 million families this year and push many into insolvency. Economists have warned, well, that might be one that the economist get right for a change. Households having to re mortgage face their bills rising by nearly 50%. According to the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, this will push the total number of families with no savings to 7.8 million equivalent to 28% of all households. This warning comes after the Bank of England on Thursday took analysts by surprise when it raised its base rate by point five percentage points to 5%. Yeah, but see, here’s the deal. If I remind you of an actual real quote, you vote on nothing to do to be happy, then I’m a conspiracy theorist. I’m so stupid. I think the moon is made out of cheese. This is a sad situation that shaping up it really is. And for those of us in America or if you live in some other country, well that’s England. This is going on in the UK. I feel bad for them, but it would just never happen here. Right? You let me know how that kind of denial works out for you. Also on Yahoo Finance disturbing trend for real estate investors home sold at a loss numbers not seen since 2016. The glory days of real estate investors buying and flipping homes for quick profits seems to have hit a roadblock. You don’t say it appears that investors are now losing on approximately one out of every seven homes they sell. I’m stunned that it’s not more than that. In actuality, I’d be willing to bet it probably is more than that. In certain US cities sky high house prices and elevated mortgage rates have diminished homebuyer demand, forcing investors to sell homes at a loss. A recent report by Redfin reveals that in March, investors lost money on roughly 13 and a half percent of the homes they sold, while only 4.8% of all US homes sold at a loss and quote, yeah, as I said, the other day, I saw somebody on LinkedIn peddling a bunch of Oh, it’s a great time to buy a house great time to be an investor a great time to be in the market. And I’m like, yeah. It’s hard for me to understand the hot air the hopium what people are thinking, especially if you are old enough to have lived through this movie before. If you are alive and well, if you are an adult with adult responsibilities, I’m not talking about something that was in elementary school, their parents were covering all their bills, they don’t really remember what’s going on. If you are a full grown adult with adult responsibilities during the Great Recession, and you’re listening to some crap like that. Where’s your head at? What are you thinking? I don’t get it. I don’t get it. Stay safe, stay sane. And I will see you in the next episode.
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