17 Jun Saturday Broadcast 52
52 weeks’ worth of Saturday Broadcasts and we are STILL getting breadcrumbed about a recession that hasn’t “officially” started yet. Good grief.
✔️ ICYMI news, 6/12-6/16.
✔️I’m not sure what kind of pro-state kool-aid these neolibs are drinking these days, but wow. Just wow.
✔️More anti-remote work hit pieces / pro RTO fluff pieces.
✔️How are you planning to deal with people in your life who didn’t prepare for this economic downturn?
Links where I can be found: https://causeyconsultingllc.com/2023/01/30/updates-housekeeping/
Need more? Email me: https://causeyconsultingllc.com/contact-causey/
Transcription by Otter.ai. Please forgive any typos!
Welcome to the Causey Consulting Podcast. You can find us online anytime at CauseyConsultingLLC.com. And now, here’s your host Sara Causey.
Hello. Hello, and thanks for tuning in. Today it is Monday, June 12. on CNBC, we find s&p 500 heads for highest close in 13 months on optimism the Fed will skip a rate hike this week. So yay for the investors and the shareholders. So glad to hear this wonderful news for them. inflation outlook hits two year low in latest New York Fed survey. Hmm. I would still love to know where exactly this cooling inflation this abating inflation, this optimism about inflation is coming from because I’m not seeing it. I mean, even just this past weekend, when we went to the grocery store, still, you’re seeing price increases to where it’s more expensive than it was the week before. We’re standing at the shopping cart having to make those decisions of Well, I mean, do we need this? Is there a cheaper option? Could we get by without it? So I don’t really get where inflation is cooling off and how we’re supposed to feel optimistic about that just yet. Maybe you know, but I don’t DeSantis to attend fundraiser with Wall Street execs, former Soros for partner. And that right there should tell you everything that you need to know about the crony capitalist system that we live in, just right there crystallized in one headline snippet. And yet, I am sure that you will have his supporters are typically on the right wing side of things, twisting themselves into a pretzel, trying to figure out ways to defend that even though they would typically rail against anything that has to do with Soros. If you tell them DeSantis to attend fundraiser with Wall Street execs and former Soros firm partner, do you really think that he’s going to scratch your back? Or do you think he’s going to scratch the backs of the donors who are apparently Wall Street execs and a former Soros firm partner? They will still through this jingoistic party ism Fang, trying to figure out a way to make it so that DeSantis is oh, he’s, he’s, he’s going to be the next Trump. He’s going to really just look out for the little guy. He’s gonna make America great again. Yeah. Right. And don’t think I’m just out here picking on Neo cons. I’m not we can make the same arguments about the Neo lives as well. I just, yeah, right on the side of the little guy got to drain the swamp get to get rid of the swamp creatures. And then meanwhile, he’s going to attend a fundraiser with Wall Street executives and a former Soros for Porter. I mean, you can’t make this stuff up. If we were writing satire, we couldn’t make it up any better. We also find 62% of student loan borrowers live for today when it comes to spending. Hmm. Well, I suppose that is to sort of paper over the fact that they’re not going to get the student loan relief that they were promised. So now the narrative will become, well, apparently they didn’t really deserve it anyway, because 62% of student loan borrowers are irresponsible and feckless, and they live for today. Again, I mean, you can’t if we were trying to make this up, as an act of satire, we couldn’t do better coming up with fictional scenarios than what we’re getting in the mainstream media. GrubHub lays off 15% of corporate workforce or about 400 employees. But hey, remember, people are doing great 2.2 open jobs for everyone. unemployed person, everybody can just go get a job at Starbucks making coffee or Chipotle is a burrito maker and that will sustain the whole economy. Right? Of course. We also find JP Morgan prepared to pay $290 million in settlement with Jeffrey Epstein victims. Wow. At a time when most Americans are living paycheck to paycheck the quiet luxury trend takes over and the TLDR key points for this we find the quiet luxury trend has quickly caught on even though these days He’s most Americans are more likely to live paycheck to paycheck, marked by expensive materials in muted tones. Quiet luxury is also known as stealth wealth. As Americans, economic circumstances get increasingly divided. Consumers could benefit from the shift to low key basics overloud logos one financial expert says in quote, and then they show a picture, I suppose, is related in some way to this article of Gwyneth Paltrow going into a courtroom back in March wearing a very sort of plain understated looking outfit. Here’s the deal. We’re hearing about crime waves. I mean, that’s not uncommon. When when you’re talking about the heat of the summer, and you’re talking about economic hardships. Times when the economy is not good. People are struggling on top of that it’s hot as hell outside. Yes, you have a pressure cooker. And people sometimes react to that pressure cooker by turning to crime. I don’t really think that quiet luxury and stealth wealth is really any kind of fashion statement. I think it’s more about self preservation. The people that are able to go in a store and buy luxury items might be tuning in to the possibility that flashing their wealth round could maybe be a bad idea. And I’m going to tell you something else that may sound controversial, I may get hate mail for this, and that’s fine. I think that and as I always tell you, this is just my opinion, and I could be wrong. I don’t give you advice. I don’t tell you what to do. Just, you know, the two of us were sitting down having a pint at the pub talking about this topic. I would say, you know, in my mind, it would not be a bad idea to become a great man. If that offends you, if you think that sounds too wackadoodle that’s fine. You can always turn the broadcast off. I’m not talking about stealth wealth. I mean, I don’t I know that there are people on the beltway that listen to this podcast, but as far as like billionaires and Lord Elon and people like that, no, they’re not tuning in to listen to me opine for your entertainment only. I’m sure they’re out spending money and making money and exploiting people. Again, just my opinion could be wrong. I’m not talking about stealth wealth for people that have a billion dollars in a Swiss bank account somewhere. I’m talking about the average person. If you have managed to squirrel some money away in a savings account, if you have a pantry that’s well stocked, you’re prepared, maybe beyond let’s say, what if we were snowed in for two weeks in a blizzard? What if we had a grid down situation and we didn’t have electricity or running water for two weeks? Or what if the water supply became contaminated in some way, and we needed to rely on other means, temporarily. If you are in good shape, or in as good a shape as anybody can be that’s middle class or working class going into an economic shitstorm like this. I personally, in my opinion, don’t think it’s a bad idea to be a great man. What do I mean by that? Well, if you’re not familiar familiar with the term, the idea is to just blend in. When in Rome, do as the Romans do, don’t, don’t do anything. Don’t say anything, don’t dress or flash or behave in such a way that draws a lot of attention to you. Don’t be memorable. That’s like if you go out in a public place and you’re flashing money around, you’re carrying an expensive handbag, you’re dressed in heavily logoed clothing, you’re going to stand out and that might not mean that you’re standing out in a good way. You might stand out in a way that makes you a crime victim. You might make yourself more likely to be the victim of a mugging a purse, snatching a carjacking, etc. If you’re out there flashing cash and trying to dress in a very like look at me look at life got all this money kind of way. I mean, typically, I would say it’s people that are either nouveau riche or that want to project the image of having wealth that do that more so than the actual wealthy. I mean, this article I think sort of speaks to that point, quiet luxury, stealth wealth. I’ve got money and my clothes are very well made and very well tailored but I want to make sure I don’t have a logo. I think that’s about self preservation. I mean, we know that some some wealthy people like to really flaunt their decadence and some don’t. But I think people that are really on a mission to appear nouveau riche very often or not. And I think again, just in my, in my opinion, it’s to your benefit to gray man out.
If you are seeing signs of the recession in your neighborhood, for example, people are going for longer periods of time without mowing the lawn. Homes are starting to fall into disrepair. There’s that general malaise and a sense of To hell with it. Is it really to your benefit to go park and expensive sports car in the driveway? Is it to your benefit to have Lowe’s and Home Depot trucks coming to the house every other day with gadgets and doodads and deliveries? I don’t tell you what to do. There are things that you’ve got to decide for yourself. And maybe you feel like it’s worth it to do that, in my opinion, that makes you a target, because the other people are going to look around and be like, Well, what’s going on over there, that this person has a sports car in the driveway, what’s going on that these delivery trucks are showing up all the time with expensive appliances, or expensive home furnishings? Like somebody’s got some money over there. Culturally, there are plenty of people in America that feel like they need to keep up with the Joneses. They get into that FOMO and Yolo mentality. If it were me, I would want to really be careful about that. Because the last thing you need is to paint a bull’s eye on your back and become a target for crime in this economy. I just don’t feel like we’re even in the thick of it yet. I feel like we’re an act one. But what what’s going to happen and act two and three and the day new wall of all this I have no idea. But we’re not in the thick of it yet things are not as bad as they’re going to get. I hope I am wrong. I pray that I am wrong about that. I just going on my observations, my logic and my reason as well as what I’m feeling at a spiritual gut level. I just do not think this is the time to go out dripping with jewelry and logo clothes and handbags and designer shoes and a fancy sports car. Get your wallet out and it’s full of cash. I mean, you you do what you feel is best I just if it were me. No, not only no but hell no, no, no, no, no. I mean, there are entire videos about this. I remember seeing a guy on YouTube that was living in Silicon Valley talking about this very thing and saying when I go out, I wear an old ratty pair of jeans or an old ratty pair of athletic shorts and a T shirt that’s got stains on it. And it doesn’t have any kind of logo. I don’t give anybody the impression that I’m a big to do in Silicon Valley. I dress like I might have slept under a bridge last night. It’s sad that we have to think in these terms. But man, that guy might have been on to something and with the way the economy is right now anyway, going to a thrift store a Salvation Army a place like that and picking up some clothes that are nothing fancy. Nothing special. That’s not a bad idea. In my opinion. It’s really not I mean, Who who is it that you’re wanting to impress? Seriously? Who is it that you feel like you need to look like you just raked in a billion dollars last year for you’re going out with Jeff Bezos or something like who? Who is it that you feel like needs to know that needs to think that needs to believe that? You know, I I would much rather be safe than sorry. Also, as far as the weather goes, we’re not even into the dog days of summer yet. I have no idea what July and August will bring. Last year it was a flipping Inferno. It felt like Death Valley in the Midwest. It was so hot and so dry. And the drought was so bad. Oh god and the electric bills were terrible too, because of having to try to run the air conditioner to keep up with everything and fans and trying to keep the animals cooled off so that none of them died. One of my weathers got sick with heat sickness. And that was a nightmare. I mean, the last thing I want to do when we’ve got all these other bills to pay and I’ve got my animals to think about I don’t want to go out somewhere and get robbed. I don’t want to go out somewhere and have somebody think I’ve got something that they Want to steal and try to mug me or follow me home? That’s No, just hell no. So my point here is, might not be a bad idea to take a lesson here from what the haves are doing. If the haves are like, Hey look, it’s time to go quiet. It’s time to do stealth wealth, it’s time to not advertise anything, it’s time to not flash the cache when you’re going out. Probably worth paying attention to. Over on Yahoo Finance, we find multimillionaire Swedish pop star ribbed for classes to McDonald’s comment, no one is lesser than you for working a fast food job. Well, speaking of the haves, let’s think about here, sort of what the what the wealthy folks think about the little guys. The Swedish pop star Zara Larsson is making headlines, but not for the reasons she’d probably hope. Instead of her emerging acting career taking center stage, it’s our classes comment about working for McDonald’s that is raising eyebrows. I don’t even know if this person has never even heard of her. The Swedish singer turned actress with a reported net worth of $10 million. Which I mean, let’s face it, if we’re if we’re talking about the haves, and we’re talking about the hyper elites, 10 million is nothing to them. I mean, it’s not it’s not but apparently that’s enough for her to feel like she’s way the hell better than anybody else. Whereas, you know, to people that are worth billions of dollars with a bee I’m sure this lady has nothing to them, which just makes the whole thing even the more ironic I guess. The Swedish singer turned actress is making her Netflix debut in the film a part of you later this year and was responding to a fans negative reaction to a recent interview. Well, I don’t have Netflix. We used it for a little while when Tiger King was on and we wanted to see that but no wonder I haven’t heard of this person. A Twitter user described Larson’s decision to discuss dipping her toes into acting with the social media first pop culture news site pop Cray as the lowest someone can fall. Okay, but here you are seeing it so I guess it worked. Larsen said in defense of the move while adding that the title has always been supportive of her career. She signed off with the tweet. I heard McDonald’s wanted to interview you for new shifts. While some of Larson’s loyal fans praise the stars sick clap back. Many condemn the comments for making fun of the working class and suggesting that working at a fast food chain is something to be ashamed of. No one is lesser than you for working a fast food job my love one fan wrote with another adding see I was with you until you use working at McDonald’s as a put down as if you’re better than a McDonald’s worker. One fan described the job as completely unnecessary. Why do you have to drag into the working class though? And quote? Yeah, well, I mean, look, that’s how people people get some money like this. They get into the Hollywood lifestyle and they don’t give a shit about working class people. Neither do the politicians or the people on Wall Street are these fat cat CEOs in corporate America highway don’t care. Don’t care. They don’t care. And the thing of it is, does this person think that she’s better than working class people better than a McDonald’s worker? I mean, duh. I’m sure. I’m totally sure. And that’s fine by me, because I’ve never even heard of this person won’t be watching her stuff. Anyway. We also find on Yahoo Finance, Paul Graham says remote work does work initially, which is why it fooled leaders who have changed their mind. Oh my god, oh my god. I’m not even gonna play it right now. But just suffice it to say I told you, I warn you. These these people, they’re not freaking backpedaling on RTO. They want you back. They want you back. Nobody has been shy about this. Remember the mayors of the city saying you need to go back downtown and cross pollinate. It’s time to stop being scared and afraid of that. Get your butt back in the queue and get back downtown. We need those tax dollars. We need you down there shopping and CO mingling and eating in restaurants and conducting your business paying the landlord and paying the taxes. So get your asses back. Well, the debate over remote work and return to Office mandates rages on one venture capitalist has identified what he sees is part of the problem. In 2005 Paul Graham co founded Y Combinator, a Silicon Valley startup that invested early in Airbnb stripe and other successful ventures on Saturday, Graham used on why some company leaders have soured on remote work after embracing it, I’m going to butt in before I ever even read his crap. I’m going to butt in and say,they bought into it, they embraced it, because that’s what we were all told to do. In March of 2020, if you had a white collar office work job, you were handed a laptop and told to go home. And depending upon where you lived, and how strict the lockdown procedures were, I mean, there were places where the National Guard was out. Roadblocks were set up and you were told, if you leave your house, we are going to have a problem. Hello, that people forgotten that. It was embraced because it was like you’re done a work. We don’t care if the kids are home from school, and they’re stressed out and freaked out and they don’t understand what’s happening. If there’s someone that no longer has access to elder care, or to like a visiting angel or home health care worker, we don’t care. We don’t care what’s going on in your personal life. We don’t care how you deal with this, you’re going to take that MF ng laptop and you’re going to go home and you’re going to be productive, or it’s your job. That’s why they embraced it. This is not arcane and mysterious people it’s not. I’ve talked to multiple founders recently who have changed their minds about remote work and are trying to get people back to the office. He tweeted, I doubt things will go all the way back to the way they were before COVID. But it looks like they will go most of the way back into quote. Yeah. Yeah, I think so. I would agree with that, to be honest with you. I would agree with that. No, I don’t agree with the sentiment behind it. I agree with the ratio. I don’t think things will go all the way back. Because I do think you’ll have people in the situation that I’m in, you’ll have some people that will simply say, the life that I’ve built, the things that I have going on are not conducive to me being s&c in the cube farm, I do not want to go back. If I have to take a pay cut whatever we need to do to make ends meet, we will figure it out some way, you’ll have some people not a lot to be clear, because so many people are living paycheck to paycheck and they’re drowning in debt, they do not have the ability to take that pay cut. You’ll have some that are able to do that a lot that are not. So I frankly I agree with his ratio. I don’t think things will go all the way back. But I think that things will go most of the way back. And I think the LARPers who are trying to convince you that everybody in the country will sit it out and have a protest over RTO that’s all they’re doing. They’re LARPing they’re having a laugh. In April lifts CEO issued a return to Office mandate one day after laying off more than 1000 employees despite the company boasting a year earlier about letting staff choose where to work, highway don’t care. A similar thing happened at the insurance company farmers group recently with some employees getting angry because they made life changes like moving to a new city after being told they’d be remote workers. Highway don’t care. Don’t you believe the line if you did that you believed a lot and I am sorry that you did. But now you’re gonna have to be the one that pays the piper for that. Because corporate America is not going to don’t give a shit. Graham suggested on Saturday that the effectiveness of remote work fades over time. Oh, I see. Okay. So when we all had to go do it in March of 2020. And we were told two weeks wink wink to flatten the curve. That was okay. But apparently, it has a three year shelf life. It has three years of being effective. And then it all goes to hell, I guess that could help explain why some company leaders have grown slowly less enamored with it. Why were all these smart people fooled? He wrote? Partly I think because remote work does work initially, if you start with a system already healthy from in person work, and partly because it seemed to solve recruiting, which is always a bottleneck. He isn’t the only prominent VC to question remote work. Keith Raboy is or rob wall. I don’t know. A general partner at a venture capital firm Founders Fund told the Logan Bartlett show last month that younger workers learn by osmosis, which requires in person interaction. So this is more of the same shit that we’ve heard before. Won’t somebody think of the children? We all have to go back and sit in offices because that’s what Gen Z needs. Dammit. They are out in the streets clamoring for RTO they want that in person Osmose us right. And supervisors discover hidden talent by watching them no supervisor surveil you. They don’t want to catch you doing something right. They want to catch you doing something wrong and you To harass. Neither he nor his firm he added would invest in a startup centered around remote work. Okay, so here’s something else we need to think about. I’ve warned you before about all the cronies working together, okay if Wall Street and corporate America want you back but unseen in the cube farm, they can have their cronies on Capitol Hill, legislate it if they want to if they want to take it their trust and believe they can’t. If the cronies in politics want Wall Street and corporate America to lean on workers to come all back because they want that cross pollination and those tax dollars, guess what, they will do that. Now you have another threat to add to the mix, which is we won’t invest. We won’t become shareholders, we won’t become investors. We won’t sit on a board of directors. If your company is centered around remote work. That is something to think about. Open AI CEO Sam Altman who led Y Combinator after Graham’s tenure recently described remote work as a mistake. I think definitely one of the tech industry’s Worst Mistakes in a long time was that everybody could go full remote forever. And startups didn’t mean to be together in person and you know, there was going to be no loss of creativity. He said at a stripe event in San Francisco. I would say that the experiment on that is over. Told you I have warned you and warned you and more do. Meanwhile, companies are getting stricter about enforcing return to Office mandates. Google told employees this week that office attendance would be an element of their performance review if they didn’t comply with the three day minimum for in office work. A union slammed the move saying professionalism has been disregarded in favor of ambiguous attendance tracking practices tied to our performance evaluations. At Amazon employees staged a walkout this month over the company’s return to Office mandate, which requires employees be in the office at least three days a week. The company seemed unfazed by the protest and is sticking with the mandate. Told you I told you a petition is not going to stop what’s coming. An angry Slack channel people bitching to the media posting a bunch of stuff with angry emojis and now even a walk out. Highway don’t occur. They don’t care. Ah. I mean, shit. i Yeah, look, man, I have told you told you told you told you and I have been vindicated. I wish that were not the case. I would much rather hire my voiceover guy to make some kind of little ditty about me eating crow. It would be funny. That would be funny. eating crow. Don’t you know? That? I don’t know. Okay. That would be funny. I would rather than I am on, you’re gone. Well, I was wrong. And I’m gonna humble up. I’m gonna cowgirl up and I’m going to admit that to you. I was wrong. I’m not. Highway don’t care. There’s more energy, collaboration and connections happening, a spokesperson told fortune. And we’ve heard this from lots of employees bootlickers excuse me, oh, my gosh, what a frog in my throat. We’ve heard this from lots of employees and the businesses that surround our offices. Graham acknowledge that there will definitely continue to be remote first companies. There were before COVID. He noted it works for some businesses. And there will be types of jobs like customer service that will commonly be done remotely. But remote first won’t be the default. I agree. I agree. I think that companies that were remote before COVID will continue to be jobs that were largely remote before COVID will continue to be freelancers, such as myself, that have the leverage to say, I don’t travel, I don’t go to an office. If you want access to me, it happens on my terms, which is remote, only periodic tup. That will be the case for some people. It’s not going to be the default setting. And it’s not going to be the reality for most people. So I’m going to ask you one more time. Do you have an RTO Survival Plan roughed out? Do you have a job loss Survival Plan roughed out? If you freelancer you own and operate your own company? Do you have a plan B C, D in case plan a poops the bed and it’s no longer viable in an economic downturn? I would rather that people think about these things in advance. Before the full brunt of this economic crisis becomes known to John and Jane Q Public in the same way that you have the haves saying it’s time to go in stealth mode. and I hope to god you’re planning and you’re making your strategies now, and not later.
Today it is Tuesday, June 13. The main headlines of the day are about inflation and the orange MAN pleading not guilty to whatever charges have been leveled against him this time, I don’t even know what they are. And to be honest with you, I don’t care. The other day on either NBC or CBS News, they had a commentator on who was talking about how the Orange Man is entitled to Secret Service protection for the rest of his life. And the odds of that being outsourced to the Bureau of Prisons pretty much zero. I mean, I think, really, anybody with common sense, knows that this is gonna go freakin nowhere. And I was surprised to be honest with you that on a mainstream outlet like NBC or CBS, a commentator would be allowed to make a statement of the obvious like that. I don’t really know what the endgame is here for this pantomime. But it feels quite clear to me that this is pantomime. This is theater, we’re going to keep leveling these charges against him. They’re not ever going to stick. He’s not ever going to have any jail time. And I think deep down, everybody kind of knows that. That’s the reality. But we keep the theater going. And then it gives him the opportunity to go out and raise funds and to say they’re doing everything they can to keep me out of the White House, they really want to get it you but they’re getting me instead. And so I’m this protector that stands between them. I’m using them in air quotes. And you also in air quotes, like, I don’t know, it feels very messianic. To me. I don’t know if anybody else is reading it that way. But it’s like, I’m gonna be the sacrificial lamb to stand between the bad guys and you. I’m the Messiah. I’m the one that’s taking on all of this, I didn’t have to I was a bazillionaire, I had a great life. But I’m doing this because of how much I love you. That That freaks me out. I don’t trust any politician ipso facto, the minute that somebody goes into politics, I’m like, you have automatically, in my mind become not completely trustworthy, because I just don’t think most good decent people anymore. Choose to go into that line of work. And I don’t think that the hyper elites would allow somebody to really get into power and gain any kind of traction, especially if we’re talking about the highest office in the land. I don’t think the hyperlinks would allow somebody who wanted to go rogue in that position to actually do it. And I think history is pretty clear that if somebody did get into that office and thought they were going to actually run something from that office, it did not turn out well for them. I can’t say much more than that. But there’s been a track record of that being the case. So I, what are the charges? I don’t know. And I don’t care. I’m not even going to talk about it. on CNBC, we find here’s the inflation breakdown for May 2023. In one chart, in the TLDR key points, we find the consumer price index rose at a 4% annual pace in May, the lowest reading in over two years, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics said in its latest inflation report, so it’s still going up. But you’re supposed to think this is good news, because it’s going up but it’s at the lowest reading that we’ve seen in a while. And it’s so foolish. So called core CPI, which strips out volatile energy and food prices has remained stubbornly high. However, that’s a concern for economists. Core CPI, but it strips out volatile energy and food prices. So the two things that you’re going to need the most the ability to drive your vehicle to heat and cool your house and to eat. We’re just going to set those to the side like are relevant categories such as shelter, motor vehicle insurance, recreation, household furnishings and operations, and new vehicles are among those with notable annual increases the bureau set some categories such as airline fares Car and Truck rentals, citrus fruits, fresh whole milk and used cars and trucks deflated over the past year. Now when we go down to the chart where they actually have all this in like more bar graph format, we find the top things are motor vehicle repair motor vehicle insurance food from vending machines or mobile vendors, pet food, frozen fruits and vegetables, household paper products, fats and oils, medical equipment and supplies, outdoor equipment and supplies, baby food and formula rent of primary residents. Food away from home ice cream, food in general daycare and preschool electricity, food at home. All Items less food plus energy and New vehicles and just all items in general. So again, you know, the stuff that matters, we can make the argument that maybe ice cream. It’s not not necessarily a necessity. I know for me, I can tell you post, there are still things that are not completely right in my system. I can eat cheese and Greek yogurt again. But if I sat down and drank a glass of milk or ate a bowl of ice cream, I would projectile vomit for hours. So yeah, we can in this household, we can definitely do without the inflated price of ice cream and be just fine. But if your car needs to be repaired, needs to be insured so that you can drive it especially for talking about driving it to get to work. That’s a necessity I on Yahoo Finance, we find an analogous story inflation report points to fed pause at June meeting economists say the Fed is getting what it wants. Oh, I’m sure. Consumer prices and may rose at the slowest pace since April 2021. According to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Tuesday morning. That’s leading Wall Street economists to generally agree the outcome of the Feds meeting this week will be a pause in interest rate hikes. The question is what the central bank will do in July? Are they getting what they want? I’m sure. I’m totally sure they always do. It’s not about what you and I want or what’s best for John and Jane Q Public working class working poor people screw them. It’s about doing what’s best for the hyper elites. What will happen in July? I have no idea. I’m sort of wondering, what’s the point here? Is is the point to continue making this argument that inflation is sticky. Is it the the job market is supposedly still so good? We need to crash it the economy is still so resilient, we need to crash it? Are they giving their cronies on Wall Street some opportunity to make it big in the stock market before that crashes? I don’t know. All I’m doing is putting out theories here. I have no idea what the goal is. My point to you is you can bet there is a goal. And you can bet that they know exactly what it is and how they intend to accomplish it. This idea that they’re all just a bunch of morons and they’re haphazardly doing things and golly gosh, gee bang whiz, we had no idea. You need to get out of that naive way of thinking it will do you no good. Over on CNN, we find the story middle income buyers faced the most severe housing shortage, which I think anybody that’s been even casually looking over the past couple of years could tell you that middle income homebuyers in the United States are finding little on the market to buy even if they can qualify and afford a mortgage. These would be buyers facing the most severe housing shortage of any other income bracket. According to a new analysis from the National Association of Realtors, and realtor.com. That found the market is short more than 300,000 affordable homes for these buyers. The report defined the middle income homebuyer as someone in a household earning up to 75k a year, the median household income in the US given that income these buyers can purchase homes valued up to $256,000 without being overburdened with housing costs. And there are a lot fewer homes in this category than a few years ago and quote, and a lot of what’s out there sucks. I can’t speak to what’s going on in other parts of the country. But here in the Midwest, where I continue to just keep a finger on the pulse of the listings. The inventory is awful. And there’s just not much to choose from in the areas that we would be interested in. The other day, somebody listed a very nothing special. I’m trying to think of the right way that I would describe it to you verbally. Not a McMansion by any means and not a shot down shack, just sort of a middle of the road average ordinary suburban type house that was on I think 25 or 26 acres. And they are starting off asking $860,000 Spoiler alert in this part of the Midwest, no, no, no, no, no, no, like a 1700 square foot, middle of the road. Nothing fancy but also not dilapidated house on 25 or 26 acres would not objectively be worth $860,000. I don’t know if their realtor is on crack cocaine. I don’t know if the homeowners are on crack cocaine. But it’s like you missed the opportunity for that 2021 It was the time when you could overprice your crap spectacularly. And the odds were good, you would find somebody to pay that absurd amount of money. It didn’t happen for everyone, not everyone out here won the jackpot on that, but a lot of people did. It’s crazy. And then you think about what will happen to the people that got into those houses. Because even though they probably did so in a low interest rate, which they would have that going for them, if they lose their job, or jobs, plural, they’re going to be screwed. And they’re going to be upside down on that house. Because the prices were so asinine, that nobody’s going to come along, and be willing to pay that kind of a price again, outside of an artificially manipulated market slash bubble conditions. The inventory in general is just not there. If you’re looking for a house with some acreage, I mean, we’ve we’ve just been really disgusted by the lack of choices, and then the continued crack smoking of people and the prices that they set on what is available. I mean, I hate to sound like we’ve just given up hope. We’re really more in like the hunker down and wait and see what happens. Wait and see how bad the price freefall becomes wait and see how bad the economy tanks. And when people are out of jobs, what’s going to happen with the housing market, we’re having to play this as the long game, not the short game, it would have been nice truth be told, I’m human, like everybody else, it would have been nice to have been able to have sold this property for an absurd amount of money. And just been very, like, huh, about it nearly as is you either want it or you don’t, we’re gonna have to open houses and collect offers. And if you don’t show up with roses and a steak dinner, then eff off. Sure, it’s nice when you have the ability to be in that position. But there was just nothing. Nothing that looked appealing. That was affordable. That made sense. I mean, just due to poor women houses, places that were falling apart, and the delusions of grandeur that the sellers and their Realtors had. And as I’ve told you before, there were realtors who told me we would just never have another 2008 We’re not in a bubble, it was going to last forever. And I knew the only person they’re fooling is themselves. Some of those people who told me that crap, they’re not even in real estate anymore, they’ve washed out. Now they’re finding something else that they can go sell or they’re sitting on unemployment. And at the risk of sounding very cold hearted, I’m going to tell you, I don’t feel sorry for them. I feel like willful ignorance, living in denial deluding yourself. At some point, you’re going to have to pull up your britches and take responsibility. Quit listening to the hotter and hopium crowd quit listening to so called influencers and so called economists and bullshit artists. It’s a waste of time, in my opinion. There was a really good article published earlier on Naked Capitalism by Yves Smith and I plan on writing a blog post about this later, my might publish it this week or the next. But it really asks this question of our economists doing more harm than good. And then when they do harm, what is the consequence for that? Nothing. They make a bad prediction, or they use flawed data. And then it’s like, well, oops, a daisy. Oh, sorry. And then there’s no consequence. The same thing is true for realtors and mortgage brokers. If you sat there and listened to somebody telling you that the FOMO and Yolo was gonna last forever. It was the last chance expressed to buy a house. Prices would never fall blah, blah, blah. I’m sorry if you did that. With age comes wisdom if you do it right. And I have lived through this movie before I know how it goes. And I know that the odds of it being the last chance express to buy a grossly overpriced shithouse probably not an accurate statement. Probably that is sales talk that is designed to take advantage of somebody. There has never been a better time to caveat emptor let the buyer beware do some fact checking and use good judgment and good common sense you you do not want to get steamrolled by what’s coming. Today is Wednesday, June 14. Obviously the big headline of the day across platforms is the fed on CNBC we find a Fed holds off on rate hike but says two more are coming later this year. The Fed forecast two more hikes in 2023 Taking rates as high as 5.6% Dow drops 200 points as fed pauses rate hikes but says more coming. Why economists say it’s a near certainty that housing inflation will soon fall. I don’t think that you have to be an economist to think that at least it’s probably a good possibility that housing prices will have to come down because people are not buying into the FOMO and the Yolo the way that they did in 2021. Yes, I am still seeing doo doo poop houses coming on the market in the Midwest that are grossly overpriced. You wonder what on earth the realtor and or the homeowners are thinking to price the way that they do and those places are sitting there. If people want to actually sell their place, or if they’re in a situation where they have to sell their place, I don’t see any way around bringing a price somewhere into the framework of reality. Also on CNBC today, we find Sonos lays off 7% Or about 130 employees. But hey, people are doing great. The labor market is still robust. Over on Yahoo Finance, we find fed skips a rate hike but forecast more to come. Stocks slip as fed suggests more hikes are coming fed dot plot shows rates now peaking at 5.6%. Over unfortunate.com We find commercial real estate troubles are so pronounced that Goldman Sachs CEO says even a soft landing won’t prevent pain. I would say a similar message is accurate for the job market. Now I think we’re already in recession. And we have been, I think by the time that some talking head or politician trots out and says we’re officially in a recession. Now. How bad will it actually be? I don’t know what the end game is here. I don’t I don’t know what all of the puzzle pieces are. I just know that something is going on. The Fed decided to put a pause on interest rate hikes the stock market had been going up. Now it’s cooling off a little bit based on the fact that Jerome Powell is talking about further hikes coming later this year. There seems to be this humping people along goading them along we’re not in a recession yet. Things are still good. We still have a 3.7% unemployment rate. Maybe we’ll have a soft landing. Who knows? Maybe we won’t have a recession at all. Maybe we should all just be feeling bullish about all of these markets. Why are they doing that? I don’t know for sure. I suspect that some of it has to do with not fomenting panic. Because as I’ve said before, in my opinion, they want you to panic when they want you to panic when you’re told to panic. When you’re told to sit down, shut up, get in the cube farm and hush your mouth and go to work, then that’s what you’re supposed to do. When you go home with a laptop and you’re spraying the outside of your grocery bags with Lysol, then you’re supposed to do that. When you’re told that that is over with you shouldn’t even be thinking about it any more than that’s what you’re supposed to be doing. So I feel like this humping along and this just we’re waiting waiting for the recession. We’re waiting to see what the markets will do to see what the Fed will do. Well, commercial real estate is in such bad shape that even a soft landing won’t prevent pain. There’s some kind of reason I don’t completely pretend to know what it is. I don’t but trust me, I really think there’s some reason why the situation is being orchestrated this way why we’re being kept in a holding pattern.
I think if you understand the markets, then you’ll know things are not in great shape. My Bellwether is the job market. And no, not for a second do I think we have a 3.7% unemployment rate. People are doing great, the great resignation is still going strong people could hippity hop across the market and get more and more money. And it’s just sunshine and roses out there to legit open jobs for everyone unemployed person. If a company is posting job requisitions on their website, they must be legit. They’re actually trying No, no, no, no. And by the time that you hear other people talking about these things, it’s usually too late for you to do anything meaningful about it. So I’m not shy. I’m not going to get on here with false modesty and pretend something other than the truth. I have been on the leading edge of telling you what is going on in the job market and what is yet to come. That is that is the truth of the matter. I stand by my track record. You’ll know the tree by the fruit it bears. So I will say it again if you have been listening to the hot air and hopium crowd bullshit artists on Social media telling you that everything is fine probably going to have a soft landing not even in a recession right now people are doing great. I would be very, very careful about doing that. Those people are not going to come and save you. If everything goes to hell in a handbasket. I also don’t think we’re going into Mad Max, the Thunderdome, World War Z zombies eating your brains. I do think that you would better get your shit together. I don’t give you advice and I don’t tell you what to do. I sit here and I opine for your entertainment only. If you and I were sitting together at the pub, having a pint talking about the economy talking about the job market. That’s what I would say. I hope that you’ve got your shit tight and right. Because by the time you’re officially told, Oh, things are not looking good. In my opinion, it’s too late then, to get ahead. It’s too late. Then to make a game plan. You’re just going to have to roll with the punches at that point. And do the best you can with what you’ve got.
Are you looking for more? Don’t forget you can find Sara on her blogs at CauseyConsultingLLC.com. And at SaraCausey.com. You can also read her content on Medium and Substack. On with the show.
Today it is Thursday, June 15. Over on CNBC we have you do have a bit of a bubble developing with artificial intelligence financial expert warns in the TLDR key points we read artificial intelligence may be overhyped at the moment. But Satori fund founder Dan Niles believes is actually not getting enough attention given its long term potential, much like the internet AI is real and going to change the way we live. He said, Well, there’s another bubble. There’s another something else that people can invest in it can be artificially manipulated and hyped up and then at some point, it can pop. We’ve seen this over and over again. This for me definitely is shadows of the.com boom and bust. Over on Yahoo Finance, we find stocks rally, as Wall Street shakes off hawkish fed, the US economy keeps showing more signs of strength. Wow. In that we read investors digested a rush of economic data on Thursday, which showed the economy continues to perform better than feared, particularly when it comes to consumer spending. Thursday’s rush of news comes just a day after the Federal Reserve paused its aggressive rate hikes, but signal to more increases would be needed this year. The weekly report on initial jobless claims showed some softening. Oh some soften showed some softening in the labor market. While retail sales beat expectations and manufacturing activity showed signs of resilience. Wait a minute. We’ve been told about the retail slump and retail stocks being down. But yet, now we’re supposed to believe everything’s fine. We’ve been told about people doing Buy now pay later for groceries. But we’re supposed to believe that consumer resilience is coming back. Consumer spending is coming back. Really. On the labor market side jobless claims climbed higher than expected last week, a sign of a softening labor market. Right? Well, it’s only unexpected if you don’t know what the hell you’re doing. For those of us who are in the job market day in and day out, really with a finger on the pulse of what’s happening. No, no, but I look at tripe like this. And it’s like, no wonder people are confused, okay, because if you just don’t know any better, I can understand how this would be confusing. Because we’re given conflicting, bullshit information. On the one hand, retail stores are suffering, they’re not hitting their revenue projections. People are tightening down on spending, they’re having to use credit cards and finance out groceries. But then on the other hand, magically, like a week later, everything’s good again. We’re still getting the crap about red hot labor market. Oh, there’s some softening, right? It’s absurd. Also on Yahoo Finance. Today, we find bosses are fed up with remote work for four main reasons. Some of them are undeniable. Oh, I will be writing a blog post about this. It’s sort of obligatory this is something that I talk about quite often. Here’s the deal. If you are just now, hearing these stories about RTO if you’re just now putting the puzzle pieces together, if you’re only just now seeing an article like that and thinking oh, shit, I guess it’s I guess the remote work revolution is over. How far behind the eight ball are you in comparison to people who have been tuning in here? Yes, I will toot my own horn. I will do it in comparison to people who have been reading my blogs and tuning into these podcasts on a regular basis. I’ve been recording special Saturday broadcasts for like what a year now. I think this is going to be week 51 Or week 52 Hello, hi. So I don’t give a whole lot of credence to some no offense I’m okay. I mean no offense I mean no disrespect to the person they quote in this article but it’s like I give no kudos to some Johnny Come Lately who’s just like, oh, I guess the remote work revolution and go hang up and y’all know duck. No dump. So the four reasons that we get in this article there, same ol same ol okay. It’s the stuff we’ve already been told remote work is bad for new hires and junior employees. Workers admit that remote work sometimes causes more problems than in person work. remote workers put in three and a half hours less per week compared to in person workers. And number four, productivity plummets on days with everyone is working remotely. Anecdotally. There’s no point in me even sitting here talking about all of those things. I’ve I have already debunked all of that crap. No reason for me to to waste airtime getting into all of that now. Really, the point that I want to drive home to you is, yes, the hope of some big remote work revolution sticking around forever. No. Net nine, not going to happen. And if you read that today, and this was your first real slap upside the head, you would be so far behind the eight ball in comparison to somebody that already has more gamed out there strategies. They have that RTO survival plan. They have a job loss survival plan, and they’re not living in la la land or some alternate reality. Now I’m gonna go to that alternate reality here in just a minute. Because if there’s some Neo libs in your life, maybe you need to check in on them and see if they’re okay. I don’t know what kind of damn Kool Aid these Neo lives are drinking right now. I try to be fair and picking on both sides. I talk about Neo cons licking the boots of corporate America thinking corporate America gives a damn about them, which clearly is not true. They think Orange Man is going to save the day. It’s it’s orange MAN versus everyone else. Orange Man is the Savior. He’s going to drain the swamp. Now he didn’t do it last time. But if we somehow get him back in there, it’s going to all be different the second time around. Yeah, I mean, that’s so Laughably absurd. So I tried to pick on everybody as equally as possible. I’m going to have to go down the Neo lube road for a few minutes today because it just seems like there’s some real KoolAid that these Neo lives are on right now. And I don’t understand what flavor it is. Before I get there, though. Another another momentary diversion here on the New York Post we find AT and T has returned to Office mandate forces 9000 to relocate or resign, lay off Wolf and are to sheep’s clothing. Wow. at&t ordered 60,000 managers to report to one of just nine offices nationwide, drastically consolidating its footprint and leaving 9000 workers with the choice to relocate or resign. The US telecom giant which currently has 350 offices across 50 states reportedly is calling workers who have been remote since the onset of the pandemic to a handful of outposts to save money and inspire collaboration work. According to Bloomberg, one manager who asked to remain anonymous for fear of retribution called the move a layoff Wolf and returned to Office sheep’s clothing. Out AT and T CEO John stanky. Oh, what’s in a name? 88 ATTC Oh, John stanky announced the on location assignments will take effect in July in Dallas and Atlanta and will be implemented everywhere else by September. Yep, you’re going back. You can LARP you can play pretend or you can get your effing mind right. And have a war game put together if you don’t already. I don’t know what to tell you. You are so far behind people who have been preparing for this. You are flat out. That’s just my opinion. And I could be wrong, but in my opinion, you are F I will sit here like Gordon Gekko in that second Wall Street. You’re the ninja generation, no income, no jobs, no assets. You’re all pretty much f you don’t know it yet. But you’re if you haven’t gotten your mind right and gotten your strategies put together. God help you because this downturn is coming. It is I don’t give a shit if somebody tells you soft landing slow session, a non recession recession or any of these other obfuscating, buzzwords Are these Bo Ron’s out in the mainstream media are using Oh, it’s a common. She’s coming around the mountain when she comes. And I think we’re already in a recession, I think we have been for quite some time. Now, by the time that you’re told, Oh, it’s looking bad out there, which I don’t know, we may be gaslighted to a point where nobody ever tells you that, or somebody in the next administration tells you that, and the current administration will be blamed by the next one, and then the next one will get blamed for it. It’ll just be a whole bunch of passing the buck, it will. Twas ever Thus, I don’t know, I don’t know when that official proclamation is coming, if ever it is coming. But if it were me, I would want to have my shit tie. I would want to be organized, prepared and ready. I would not want to get blindsided by what’s coming. Because as I’ve said before, I think we’re in Act One. How bad will it get an act two and act three, I don’t know, I pray to God that we don’t have another great recession. I pray to God that we don’t have another Great Depression. But I don’t know. I feel like when you look at the statistics and information about things like income inequality, that’s a very real freaking possibility, how unaffordable it is just to live just to try to have a middle class existence now. I published a podcast earlier today about a documentary that I watched regarding essential versus non essential workers during the pandemic, the decline in unionization and how we’re seeing income inequality that’s on par with what we saw in the Gilded Age, which turned into the Great Depression. I feel like people, they hear those statistics and it just it doesn’t even mean anything to them. They think Well, that would just never happen again. The people in the government are just so smart. They would never let that happen again. That’s why I’m like y’all need to call these Neo libs in your life. If you love them, you care about them. And they’re drinking that state sponsored Kool Aid, call calling and find out if they all right, because I don’t know what’s going on. Had a NEO live mansplain earlier trying to tell me that the job market won’t crash the labor market will ultimately be okay, because enough baby boomers will retire and to work die. And those jobs will be vacant. And so that’ll be enough to help people of younger generations to stay employed. And I’m like, rah. Sure, sure. Okay. I wouldn’t bet the farm on that. That sounds like wishful thinking to me, which is awfully morbid when people are counting on an entire generation to die off so they can take their stuff. morbid, but then at the same time you think about how screwed the young generations are, they’re going to have to try to glom on to some sort of generational wealth, just to have anything. It’s just a depressing situation all the way around. But do I think, having some expertise in the job market that all of these baby boomers are going to retire and or die off? And that’s going to be enough? No, I’m telling you flat out? No, I don’t think so. Prediction alert? No. We’re talking about people who have unretired not just because they got bored. And they decided that sitting and watching the boob tube all day wasn’t the greatest of plans. Some people have unretired because they had to for financial reasons to cope with inflation to cope with the economy. Some people are doing multi generational housing not because that’s what they want to do. It’s not like, well, this is a cultural thing we all like to be together. They’re shacking up with one another out of financial necessity, because there’s no other choice but to have maybe two or three nuclear family units in one household. This is happening, but yet you expect me to believe these baby boomers are going to all retire and everything will be fine. So I think this also plays into the narrative and I see this more so from Neo lives and from Neo cons to be honest with you. This plays into the narrative that all of the baby boomer generation is rich, all of them. Every single baby boomer is ridiculously wealthy. They’re all like Bill Gates. I don’t know where that idea comes from. I know plenty of baby boomers that most certainly do not fit into the wealthy category. Some of them are not even middle class, they’re working well. They’re working poor or they’re living on a fixed income in government housing. That’s reality. Where do we get this idea that everybody in that entire generation is filthy rich, I don’t get that. That’s that Well, I do get it actually. Because again, if the haves can divide the have nots. Then they can stay at the top of the pyramid and we all in fight with each other. I think that’s a big part of it. Oh, boy. And then today, here’s here’s another example of like, are the Neil lips. Alright, what are they on? Ted Bauer, whose writings I like, I’m not trying to pick on him. I’m just picking on this one particular article. So you dropped an article today on medium titled, could the government truly cover up a conspiracy theory for years? Well, yeah, hell effing. Yeah, they could. Where? Where’s your head at? Okay, so in this essentially, if we scroll down, because he does mention the JFK, pop pop. And then he says, let’s say that was a conspiracy and people in the government and then he puts LBJ exclamation point new. Okay, that was November 1963. You really think that with all the need for relevance and fame, and I broke the story of what really happened and deathbed confessions and broader stupidity, that this thing could be covered up since 1963. The government is powerful, yes, that powerful, and that unaligned with how human behavior and psychology tend to work, that’s a stretch. And he goes on to talk about aliens in outer space, life, whatever. And then he the final paragraph here is where I was really like, Oh, really? But I do believe they can truly be maintained for decades by humans desperate for relevance. And but okay, wait a minute. I think that’s supposed to be but do I believe, because he’s asking question, they’re caught a typo. But do I believe they can truly be maintained for decades by humans desperate for relevance and attention and awash in politics and silos know someone would choke and talk. That is the narrative that we get over and over and over again. Even though oftentimes, nowadays, something that’s labeled a conspiracy theory and demonized by the Neo libs, you give it a year or two, and then it comes out in mainstream media. That’s the clown world we live in. I mean, I would really invite TED to go check out Michael Aquino’s book mind war. You want to have a mind F go read that. They know how the mind works. They know how psychology works, don’t I mean, I just I read something like this, oh, I just I sit here and I rub my temples like Gordon Ramsay in a bad restaurant, it’s like, but that’s that’s part of the the narrative that we get in the media is somebody would talk, you couldn’t have a conspiracy, that big, couldn’t cover up something that big, somebody would eventually talk. And the thing of it is, if somebody does talk, and I’m going to have speaking codes here, I do apologize, I don’t want to get D platformed. If somebody does talk, they’re either discredited. They’re turned into oh, this person is a tinfoil hat conspiracy theorists, they’re a lone nut. They’re cuckoo bird, they get discredited, or they get done away with. Yeah, people talk. They get discredited, or they get done away with. But this idea that it’s just completely impossible for a conspiracy theory to be true, particularly if we want to talk about the JFK Pop Pop situation. It’s impossible for that to be true, because somebody some fame seeking show whore would would want to talk and right now, it couldn’t possibly be true because of that. That’s why I say some of y’all not gonna make it. There are people who are going to be so high on their own supply, there’ll be so high on HANA and hopium going into this economic downturn, that they’re not going to make it. And then when they get smacked upside the head by this economic steamroller by agenda 2030 and the great r e s, ET, which, you know, that makes me a conspiracy theorist. Somebody would talk Sarah sombody wouldn’t spill the beans. They’re going to get steamrolled. And then they’re going to look at everybody else like, Well, how did this happen? How could this have happened? How could the state have allowed this? How could the Fed have failed us again, I just don’t understand. You know what, I don’t have any sympathy for that. If someone is just putting one foot in front of the other, they’re working poor. They’re doing what they’re trying to do every day to just keep food on the table and that person gets steamrolled. I feel sorry for them. If somebody is a NEO lib, smug and hopium and they’re just refusing to believe that, oh, the state might actually not have their best interest at heart. No sympathy. No, I’m done with willful ignorance. I’m done with the neocon and the Neo lib bullshit. I’m done with it. You either prepare yourself and get your mind right. Or you get steamrolled. I feel like it boils down to that. That’s just my opinion, and I could be wrong, but I feel Eli, we are rapidly approaching a period of time where that window is closing. I’m thinking of like that scene and the mummy where Hymenoptera starts to collapse and they’ve got like a window of time to get out or they’re trapped in there forever. That is your window of time to get prepared for this particular economic downturn will be closing. You either go into it prepared and ready to roll or you get or you get steamrolled, you get rolled, but the choice is yours.
Today it is Friday, June 16. Over on CNBC, we have s&p 500. Futures inch higher as benchmark heads for best weeks since March, two year Treasury yield climbs as investors assess interest rate outlook, retailers are preparing for a discount heavy down holiday season, According to CNBC survey. So wait a minute, we were told that retail was not doing good retailer stocks were in the toilet, people were just pulling back on spending doing what they needed to do to survive. Then we were told just the other day, that retail was somehow magically doing well again, and retail sales were up. But then today, we’re being told that retailers are preparing for a discount heavy down holiday season. Sometimes all you can do is laugh, you’re gonna have to either laugh or cry and I would rather laugh in the TLDR key points for this. We read even as inflation drops sharply year over year, oh my god. The majority of respondents to the CNBC supply chain survey are concerned the consumer will cut back on holiday spending. I’m gonna butt in and tell you that in my household, we have already been having that conversation. I know it’s only June. The Solstice hasn’t even happened yet. That’s next week. And I’m so excited because that means we are headed into the dark half of the year. That is my time. I am just not a diabolical heat bugs everywhere. muggy, tropical type person, it’s just not for me. I am ready for the dark half of the year. Bring it on. I want some good a terminal weather. But we’ve already been having that conversation about what is the holiday budget going to look like. And it’s going to have to be pared down. So I’m an agreement with the majority of respondents who are like young consumers are going to cut back debt. Two thirds of respondents expect consumers to be looking for discounts during peak retail season. middle price point items such as jackets are dominating early holiday order activity less than 20% are high end items. Because who can afford that? This is also something we’ve been talking about. Let’s look at clearance racks. Let’s look at sales in just a little at a time so that we don’t have to take a big hit on anything. Starting with the holiday shopping and deciding who’s gonna get what and who isn’t. This is the reality we live in. More than half of orders will be promotional products, including free gifts with purchase. Oh, great, go buy something get something free. But yeah, just the other day you were expected to believe that retail was doing good again. This these types of contradictions. I mean, it’s like we’re expected to not even pay attention to the BS over on Yahoo Finance. Speaking of which, how’d you like that segue? Over on Yahoo Finance, we find a factory boom is finally happening. The construction of new US factories is hitting unprecedented levels. Really. President Obama tried to revitalize American manufacturing with little to show for it. President Trump tried to was similarly unimpressive results under President by however, manufacturing boom, finally seems to be getting started. Since the beginning of 2022. construction spending on new factories is more than double from an annualized rate of $91 billion in January of 22 to $189 billion and April 23. The latest data available, that’s the biggest jump by far in data going back to 2002. In April, factory construction accounted for 9.9% of all construction, the highest portion in census bureau records going back to 1993. From 2010 through 2022. Factory construction average is 5.7% of the total. Private sector firms are building more US factories to cash in on an unprecedented spate of legislation. I’m sorry. I mean, it’s so obvious. Corporate America doesn’t surprise the state. The state doesn’t surprise corporate America. Neither does Wall Street. Hello. Hi, how are you? Just this morning on the job market journal I published an article saying more fake numbers won’t help. If there really is a manufacturing and factory booth, which I’m skeptical of. Okay, I treat this with a healthy sense of skepticism. But let’s assume For argument’s sake, that there is a factory boom, you can bet your bottom dollar, no pun intended that there’s some kind of incentive, there’s some kind of tax break. There’s some kind of back scratching that’s going on to get it all started again, private sector firms are building more US factories to cash in on an unprecedented spate of legislation. Biden has signed providing federal funding, hello, taxpayer dollars, federal funding and incentives for infrastructure development, a massive green energy build out and a revitalized semiconductor industry. Three separate bills passed by the Democratic Congress in 2021. And 2022, and signed by Biden will provide well over $1 trillion in federal spending, tax breaks and other incentives meant to build more important products in the United States and reduce reliance on importers, mostly China. Yep, so your taxpayer dollars yet again, going to scratch the backs of corporate America and incentivize them a couple of things that I’m thinking about here, the Fed and their printing press, how much money they’re going to have to fork out. How much will we pay in the form of our tax dollars? And then how much will come from the magical printing press that the Fed has provided? Well over $1 trillion in federal spending and tax breaks Well, oh, and other incentives that’s nebulous, isn’t it? Yeah. I’m also I’m in the process of reading that Arlie Hochschild book, strangers in their own land. And one of the topics that she talks about pretty frequently in the book is the environmental impact of industry in Louisiana, and how there are different values and places that you really just can’t go to because of the pollution. People will not eat the fish people like the turtles and the frogs, the the normal part of the flora and fauna of these buyers are just simply not healthier. They’re simply not there anymore. But yet at the same time, there’s this this conflicting juxtaposition of like we want these jobs here but then at the same time we know that they’re polluting it’s very frustrating to me to think about corporate America getting its back scratched with taxpayer dollars I also in the last podcast episode that I recorded where I referenced that documentary essential you have these corporations paying people not a living wage and no benefits so then they turned to public assistance to be able to overcome what they’re not getting in their job. And you and I assuming you’re in the US you this is a global broadcast so if you’re not you get you still get what I’m saying it’s the American taxpayer that’s footing the bill for that but yeah, I’m gonna get into this in just a second I’ve got one more thing I want to highlight before I go into my little closing it up rant for this time. You still have people that think there’s going to be some magical Hail Mary pass whether it’s from corporate America Wall Street or the government they think there’s going to be some magical Hail Mary pass that these fat cats these cronies they really somehow care about John and Jane Q Public. If you believe anything else, you’re just a conspiracy theorist. You’re so stupid. You think the moon is made out of cheese? That was a cartoon I saw earlier and I was just like, I I’ve got no sympathy anymore. I don’t care it doesn’t make a good hot damn to me whether you’re a neocon or a NEO lib. If you have your head that far up your own asshole. I don’t feel sorry for you. I don’t. The time for willful ignorance is over. It is. Alright, quick segue. All right, but before I get into my rant, and I close it up for this week. I also wanted to highlight this dystopian highlight headline for you. Charlie Munger said healthcare providers artificially prolonged death to make more money compares patients to African carcass.
Billionaire investor Charlie Munger has been vocal in expressing his concerns about US healthcare stating that it is a shot that it is shot through with rampant waste and has become immoral. I’ll agree that it’s become a moral because I know what my experience has been like firsthand. I know the way that I’ve been treated I know the way that these fat cats profiteer, you know $25 Because I looked at your chart $279 Because we manufacture the equipment that you had to wear F off this this is crazy. Has it become immoral? Yes, but I suspect that I have different reasons for thinking it’s immoral than Charlie Munger does. Munger says there are substantial problems that need to be addressed including the presence of unnecessary costs and inefficiencies that plagued the medical field. Drawing a vivid analogy at the Daily Journal Annual Meeting monger compared the experience of a dying old person in many American hospitals to that of a carcass on the plains of Africa. He painted a bleak picture describing how vultures, jackals, hyenas, and other scavengers swarm around the helpless creature in an attempt to address these issues. Berkshire Hathaway Amazon and JP Morgan Chase. Oh my God, you cannot make this shit up. You can’t make it. Oh my god, I’m a headache. Oh, are there vultures out there? Yeah. And they’re the freaking cronies. Hell, yeah. There’s vultures out there. The Hyper elites that want to pick your bones clean? Absolutely. But see, here we go. Oh, they’re gonna solve the problem of the immorality and health care. Oh, my God help us all. In an attempt to address these issues, Berkshire Hathaway amazon.com and JP Morgan Chase join forces to establish Haven healthcare, a venture that despite their combined efforts failed to achieve its objectives. Oh God. Some startups have been successful where they have failed I remedy for example, as a startup using artificial intelligence technology that offers a solution to the Healthcare System’s challenges through its large procurement marketplace. Its platform streamlines the supply chain enabling faster and more affordable access to life saving supplies for doctors, hospitals and health care providers. Munger vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway criticize the high costs and inefficiencies in medical care as both expensive and wrong. In a CNBC interview, he went on to claim that some medical providers artificially prolong death to increase their profits. But yet, here’s the deal. If I were to say, okay, is this meant to usher in some sort of Soylent Green AI? That will tell you we don’t want to prolong death. We don’t want to milk you for more money. So maybe it’s time for you to just go for the Woodbine twine if if I say that then I’m a conspiracy theory idiot who thinks the moon is made out of cheese? Meanwhile, I mean, read the article for yourself. That is dystopian to me. I do not I personally do not want AI deciding how long I should live. Call me crazy. But I mean, I think that I, as the owner of this body, have some right in deciding that. Good grief. So this is Saturday broadcast 52. I have had a full year full 52 weeks worth of Saturday broadcasts getting on here and warning you and I will continue to do so. I’m still waiting for the magical announcement that the recession has risen up from the mist like Brigadoon and it’s finally here. I don’t know if we will ever get that announcement. I have no idea. I went back and I looked at the very first Saturday broadcast, which was titled special Saturday broadcast a storm is coming and it was published on June 4 of last year. The write up is at this point the power brokers are warning you that a storm is coming. Ignore that information at your own risk key topics. This is about preparation, not panic. Be careful of normalcy bias, which tells you that everything is fine and will continue to be exactly the same. Well, not necessarily. If you were out in the workforce during the Great Recession, you know better. Don’t play 24/7 gloom and doom news but do pay attention to the markets and what’s happening in the world. When in doubt talk to a professional financial planner or advisor who can assess your personal financial profile and goals and help you with your decisions. As I’ve said I think we’re in Act One of this crap storm. I do not think we’ve yet made it to act two or act three in the day new mall. I wouldn’t be surprised if there aren’t documentaries and movies made about this mess. At some point down the road, the AMI bubbles and Oh, everything was just so hot after go and I mean, look at the housing market and look at the job market. I mean great resignation and I and everybody again, all of these academics will be getting high on their own supply and talking about how nobody could have seen it coming when I think anybody with a decent IQ and some common sense could see it coming from 10 miles down the road. I assume if you’re here, you’re smarter than the average bear, and you’re Attuned to Reality. Whether you’re just joining me recently, or you’ve been with me this whole time, first of all, thank you for tuning in. And second of all, thank yourself for having common sense and for caring enough to say, I’m not just going to spend my time binge watching content on Netflix or tick tock, I’m going to take some amount of time out of my day to get a handle on what’s going on in the economy in the job market in the housing market. I don’t want to get steamrolled by what’s coming. There’s a columnist I recently discovered over on medium, I’m gonna try to say the name correctly, hopefully I do get it right, Rocco pin Dola. And he talks about the same concept of getting your crap together. And I commented on one of his posts, like, yes, this people do need to be getting their crap together, they need to have that escape plan, they need to have that plan B. And he talks a lot about a physical escape plan, whether that’s relocating to another country and other state, he seems to have a focus a lot on the housing crisis and housing and affordability. I would say the same thing about the job market? Do you have that RTO Survival Plan roughed out? Do you have that job loss Survival Plan roughed out? Are you living beneath your means? Are you the type that $1 burns a hole in your pocket? And you have to offload it as soon as you get it? Are you swimming in debt? I mean, what can you do to get yourself in as good a shape as possible going into this downturn? As I said yesterday, I feel like the window of opportunity to do that is closing. Because by the time that we have some kind of something, whether that’s a stock market crash, job market crash, something in the housing market that’s very reminiscent of, Oh, 809, all of the above, who knows, by the time that that event happens, it will ipso facto be too late to prepare. If you’re trying to get ahead of an event like that, when it happens, you’re too late. You’re too late. I don’t give you advice. I don’t tell you what to do or what not to do. I just sit here and I opine for your entertainment only. If it were me, just sitting here by myself, which I am right now. Just my laptop and my microphone. Thinking out loud. I would say you know, so you’re already aware that there are going to be some people who don’t make it. Some people are hard hits. And a hard head is going to make a soft behind in this economic crisis. It will. People who are living in denial and it doesn’t matter whether we’re talking about they lick the boots of corporate America and Wall Street, or they lick the boots of the state doesn’t matter six of one half a dozen or the other because all of these little cronies eat slop out of the same hog trough and look out for each other. If somebody is just completely unwilling to get out of their own, but they think that they know everything already. They think that they’re so much smarter than everybody else. There’s just no possible way that the state could pull one over on us. There’s just no possible way that corporate America could be colluding with the state. There’s just no possible way we live in a free society. We live in a free market capitalist society. Orange Man is going to save us senile old man is going to save us if we clean out Congress and put new buttholes in there instead of the buttholes we have right now. That’s gonna make a difference by God. If somebody is in that frame of mind, there is not a damn thing I can do for them. Neat Yuval. Nothing zippity doo da. And I’m not going to try. long pause there. Again, if it were just me by myself thinking out loud, I would say it is smarter in my mind at this point to think about a gameplan for how to deal with those people. Because those people that get their ass handed back to them in this crisis because they thought they were so much smarter than everybody else. The rest of us are out here thinking that the moon is made out of cheese. You know meanwhile, you had Carl Bernstein who is not some far right Q and on Blogger exposing the connection between the media and the Charlie India alpha and how they used journalist assets to do their bidding. But right Oh, right. We’re just idiots who think the moon is made up cheese. Okay, I guess that includes Carl Bernstein too. got somebody like that. Probably not going to make it. And I don’t give a damn that they don’t. I told you that this was going to be the year of raw authenticity. And I’m telling you, if somebody has ears to hear they’re they’re intelligent enough to comprehend what’s being told to them. And they just cover their eyes, and they stick their fingers in their ears and say, lalalalala, I don’t want to hear you. I think you’re a conspiracy theorist, I think you’re a nutball I think the state’s gonna save us, I think corporate America is gonna save us. I have no sympathy for you. None. There’s nothing I can do for you. There’s nothing I will do for you, you’re going to have to live with the consequences of your own actions. And I think at this point, the smarter move instead of trying to wake somebody up, who’s just their head is firmly up their own butt, and it’s not coming out. I think the smarter move is to think about how you are going to deal with those people in your life. I’ve told this story before about a friend of mine from school, who I had not seen in years, contacted me during the Great Recession, and wanted to know if he and his girlfriend, the girlfriend, I never met never laid eyes on this woman ever in my whole life. wanted to know if they could move into my back bedroom rent free for an undetermined length of time. And I’m like, No, not only No, but hell no, it’s taking everything that I’ve got for me to live. I can’t allow other people to move into my house and just live there for some undetermined length of time and eat what little food I’ve gotten in the house. No way. I’ve got to take care of myself. You may very well have people like that, who show up in your life during the downturn. If they feel like you prepared you saw this coming, you got your mind right and your shit, right? They they may very well call you up or show up on your doorstep and want to know what you’re gonna do for them. And it’s like, okay, well, do we hand them a loaf of bread jar peanut butter and say this is all we can do for you? Do we hand them a few cans of canned goods and a jug of water? I mean, I, I don’t know. I cannot give you an answer. Your situation is going to be different. And the reality is, it is a different. It’s a different level of emotionality. A for a buddy that you had in school you haven’t seen in years wanting to drag up and be a freeloader. It’s fairly easy to say no. But what if it’s your sister, your brother, your parent, your son, your daughter, your best friend and their family? That’s just a different level of emotional commitment. I think instead of trying to wake up people that they just they’ve got their head up their butthole. They think they’re so much smarter than everybody else. I think the smarter move at this point, I mean, here I am a years worth of Saturday broadcast warning people week after week. I think the smarter move is how are you going to deal with people who didn’t prepare the people that call you up or show up on your doorstep and want you to bail them out of a bad situation? Because see, the government does not bail out john and jane Q Public the way that it bails out Wall Street. You and I are expected to have moral hazard. We’re expected to think ahead and to caveat and tour and to not screw ourselves over Wall Street. Oh, no. They’re too big to fail. They’re too important. So I’m just really asking myself, How are we prepared to handle those people that didn’t prepare the people who had ears did not hear the people who had eyes and didn’t say how are we prepared to handle the people in our life who are like that? Stay safe, stay sane. Use your brain. And I will see you in the next episode.
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