Saturday Broadcast 47

Welcome to the Causey Consulting Podcast. You can find us online anytime at CauseyConsultingLLC.com. And now, here’s your host Sara Causey. Hello, Hello, thanks for tuning in. Today it is Monday, May 1. Over on CNBC we find first republic deal comes at a crucial point for the markets and economy. FDIC sees merits of increasing backstop for business accounts. Then we also have this part of the crisis is over, says diamond after JP Morgan Chase buys First Republic. In the TLDR key points we find the crisis that led to the downfall of three regional US banks in recent weeks is largely over after the resolution of first republic. According to JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon. JP Morgan emerged as the winner of a weakened auction for First Republic after regulators decided that time had run out on a private sector solution. There are only so many banks that were offsides this way, diamond told analysts in a call shortly after the deal was announced. Wow. So yet again, we see Jamie Dimon and JP Morgan Chase coming out the winner in a financial crisis situation. Do you think this part of the crisis is over? Do you think that indeed the banking system is sound, nothing to see here, people move along, move along. Don’t even give it another thought. Only you can make that decision. JP Morgan takes over First Republic after biggest US bank failure since 2008. So there’s another reference to 2008 Charlie Munger says the US commercial property market is in trouble. Over on Yahoo Finance, it’s a similar scene. Jamie Dimon says this part of the crisis is over. So just the fact that this is being smeared everywhere in big broad strokes makes me suspicious. Again, you have to decide for yourself. Do you think that okay, we had some hiccups. We have a little blip in the banking system radar, but it’s all okay now. I myself would not be willing to bet my life on that. I hope that it is over. I hope that it is. I’m not willing to just completely throw caution to the wind and assume that it is though just because Jamie diamonds. So stocks edge up after jpm takes over first republic. FDIC proposes overhaul of deposit insurance rules. One of the things that I want to say about this is I really think Caveat emptor, the onus is on you to stay aware of whatever happens with FDIC insurance. These things can change seemingly at the blink of an eye. Ultimately, as Lynette Zeng has explained on her channel very well indeed, when you make a deposit at the bank, even though theoretically you think like that money exists somewhere in cash, and it goes into giant vault, but it doesn’t. Nowadays, it’s just digits on a screen. And then on top of that, from a legal perspective, you’re essentially loaning that money to the bank and you don’t always know what they’ve done with it. And you can’t always get it out quickly either. So these are things to just keep an eye on. I’m not telling you to get paranoid or panicked. Again, I don’t do Mad Max Thunderdome and all of that insanity. I think you would just do well to keep a general eye on what’s happening, because it could very well impact you. I hope that it doesn’t but it could. US economy is slowing down. We’ll know. Also, in the no duck category we find first Republic’s failure was totally predictable. This reminds me so much of Billy Madison, Billy likes to drink soda. Miss lipis Car is green. It’s very helpful. From a painful credit crunch to a meltdown in the commercial real estate market. Here’s what top economists are predicting bump up bumper. And in the byline we find a recession is a very big call because it’s a haircut to national income. David Rosenberg said it’s as if the whole country takes a pay cut. You know, kind of feels that way already. Because with the inflation It’s like you already have taken this giant haircut your dollar doesn’t go as far as it once did. Stagflation is the risk that eludes investors mispricing markets. Blackstone’s real estate trust limits withdrawals for six straight month. You I feel like that’s another area that’s poised to like pounce on the crisis. These hedge funds and real estate trusts and huge investors that can see the crisis situation and exploit it to their own advantage. I think again of Gordon Gekko money is not really made or lost. It’s simply transferred from one perception to another. I bought this painting for 60 grand, but now it’s worth 600 grand, the illusion has become real. And the more real it becomes, the more they want it. I just I think that these billionaires and the hedge funds and the real estate trust they’re going to swoop in on corporate real estate. I’ve warned you before that I just don’t think that these landlords and corporate real estate owners are going to bulldoze these buildings. Just say forget about it. We’re not going to do our to everybody can just work from home and we’ll do without these buildings. Maybe we’ll make a nature preserve. Maybe we’ll make a nice community garden or community park? I don’t think so. It’s a nice utopian dream, but a dream is all I think it is. Over on LinkedIn, we find a quarter of jobs set to change. Nearly one in four jobs are set to change over the next five years as a result of trends including artificial intelligence digitization, the green energy transition and supply chain reshoring. According to a new report from the World Economic Forum, the report which is based on a survey of over 800 Employers also said global job markets are set for a new era of turbulence as clerical work declines and employment growth shifts to areas such as big data analytics, management technologies and cybersecurity. Employers expect to create 69 million new jobs by 2027 and eliminate 83 million positions with a net loss of 14 million jobs. It’s up to 26 million jobs and record keeping and administrative positions will be eliminated as roughly 75% of surveyed companies said they expect to adopt AI technologies over the next five years, slower economic growth, supply shortages and inflation remain a bigger threat to jobs than AI for now, the report said You don’t say? Yeah, I mean, in the short run, clearly, inflation, stagflation recession, that’s going to be the most immediate hurdle. I don’t think that robots are going to take everyone’s jobs. I do think that it would be a wise move. Again, in the same way that I would tell you, I think it’s a good idea to have an RTO Survival Plan roughed out to have a job loss Survival Plan roughed out ahead of time. In the event that whatever your profession is, if the well went dry, and you were struggling to make ends meet, maybe not for forever, because downturns don’t last forever, but maybe for a little while. And you needed that plan B, C, D, to have income, what would you do? Have you thought about that? In terms of Wargaming, your strategy out further into the future? Have you considered what would happen? Let’s just put on our sci fi dystopia glasses for a moment and say, Well, what would happen if AI took my job? What else could I do? What other skills do I have? I don’t know for me personally, and that’s all this is just my personal opinion. I feel like there has never been a better or a more momentous time in our lifetime. To sharpen your knife, get your skills sharp, get your stuff together. You’ve heard these statistics about how much time the average person spends playing video games or how much time they spend binge watching content on Netflix. And it’s like, if you could just carve out some of that time to get a skill set to do something else that might help you. I think that that would be time well spent. And please don’t misunderstand me. I’m not saying don’t have leisure time. Don’t take a break. I’m also not saying that every minute of the day should be monetized. It’s not fair that we live in a crony capitalist hellscape where you’re supposed to work 10,000 jobs at one time and And no matter what kind of lifestyle you lead, it’s never enough. You’re supposed to always be upgrading, always be chasing always be wanting more. Again, I think about bud Fox and Gordon Gekko, how many yachts? Can you waterski? Behind? How many mansions Can you live in? And when is it enough? It’s that’s not the right way to live. That’s an unhealthy and potentially dangerous way to live, in my opinion, to always be chasing money and always be chasing a bigger, better house and we need a boat and we need another car. And we need and we need and we need and then meanwhile, it’s not really we need, it’s more we want, I want to keep up with the Joneses. I want to look a particular way to the friends and the family. So I’m not telling you, I think that you should monetize every moment of your time, should never just do something purely for fun for enjoyment. No, I really think that you have to build in some sanity breaks, read something for pleasure, something that’s just silly nonsense, watch a good movie or a good TV show. However, if you’re doing that all the time, if you’re spending hours upon hours, upon hours, just sedentary, and you’re not doing anything for your body, you’re not doing anything for your mind. You’re just putting garbage into it all the time junk foods, and then junk food programming. What is that? I think back to a conversation that Gary Stobhill and I had years ago, where he was talking about space dust. And he was talking about it in a business context, ie if you work in contingency based staffing, and the stuff that you’re working on, just goes up and smoke blows away like space dust, then that becomes your life. And I would extend his thesis out further, if you’re eating junk food. You’re being sedentary. And you’re just consuming mindless BS on the TV all the time, or playing video games to the point where you’ve got seat sores. Like, surely there’s got to be some amount of time that you can spend sharpening your skill set, what is something that you can do for pleasure that maybe you could monetize, if you chose to, if you ever wanted to, what’s a skill set that you could fall back on if you ever chose to, if you ever needed to. There are plenty of entrepreneurs out there that fall into that category. They may have some kind of business that they’re running, but then they also are a whatever by trade, a lawyer, an accountant, a software engineer, et cetera. I had been thinking for a while, I need to get back into conversation practices on a regular basis. I need to sharpen my knife with my language skills. Because the thing is with foreign language, if you don’t use it, you lose it. And then you’re in the situation of like, Oh, I know, I know that word. I know, I know this phrase. You know. So I have made the commitment to shave off some of my leisure time to devote to sharpening that part of my skill set. Because you never know, that could come in handy, not only as something that I enjoy doing for fun for culture for mental stimulation and enrichment, but it could also be monetized if I ever needed for it to be monetized. In my opinion, it’s smart to think in that direction. It just is. I plan on recording an episode soon that will be like a Redux to my episode of hacking yourself. Are you in good condition physically, mentally, spiritually, financially? Yes, in a recession or 1970s era stagflation the easiest finger to point is financial. Are you cleaning up personal debt? Are you living beneath your means? Have you decided to stop keeping up with the Joneses? That’s easy. But it can be a really not good situation to neglect your physical health, your spiritual health, your mental health and to live in a state of oblivion. Oh, well, that might happen to somebody else over there. But it would never happen to me. Like the old cliche, it’s a recession when the guy down the street loses his job, but it’s a depression when I lose my job. There was a show that I watched and I’ll try to dig around and see if I can find the link to it. But it was like this. This guy this doctor was going through a hospital and I think it was in Iowa or Indiana maybe. And he was just talking to patients that were willing to appear on camera to discuss their problems. And in particular, he was focused on Western world diseases related to obesity, she was talking to diabetics and people that had heart attacks, people that had high cholesterol, high blood pressure, etc. And there was a woman. And I can honestly say, I’ve not ever seen anything like it. She had, like, virtually uncontrolled type two diabetes. And this, this wound had opened up on her leg, and it just would not heal. And they were about to exhaust all of the treatment options. And she had reached this critical place in her life of we’ve only got just a few more things that we can try. And if those things don’t work, it’s amputation. And I thought, God, that’s horrible. I feel awful for that woman. There was a man that they interviewed, who had, he had had heart attacks, plural. And the doctor was like, well, has anybody ever counseled you on diet and exercise? Have you? Have you ever been told, like the proper things to do to take care of your body after these heart attacks have happened? And this is what I want to hone in on? He said, Yes, of course, they have, of course, I’ve been told to make changes to my diet, of course of untold the exercise, I’ve been told all of that I’m not an idiot. I just didn’t want to do those things. I felt like deep down, some of those things were just scare tactics, and they would never happen to me until they did. I don’t want that person to be you. I don’t want that person to be me. The time to plan ahead and to think about, here’s what I would do if is when you’re not in the crisis, when you can think clearly. And you can move the chess pieces around on the board. Maybe I try this and it didn’t work. I mean, with foreign language, for example, there may be a language that you start to study and you’re like, I just cannot get into this. This is not my bag. This is not where I belong. There may be a musical instrument that you try to play and you’re like, This is not for me, I don’t enjoy this. If there’s not enough passion that I have to continue trying this. Maybe you decide there’s some it or technical related skill that you want to develop and you get started doing it. You’re like, No, God, no, I even if I could monetize this in an emergency, I wouldn’t want to. I feel like it’s better to do those dry runs and that ABX testing when you’re not free falling off the side of a cliff hoping that the parachute will open. Today it is Tuesday, May 2, before I get into the headlines of the day, which quite frankly are not very good. We’re not getting the sunshine and roses today. Speaking of not very good. The WEF is having its meeting today and tomorrow called the growth summit jobs and opportunity for all. I’ll drop a link so you can see that for yourself. I will also drop a link to their the future of jobs report 2023 where they make their predictions on which fields will grow which ones will shrink, which will remain relatively unchanged because the amount of growth will be about to keep pace with the reductions. Interesting times indeed. Over on CNBC, we find downfalls 400 points as banking concerns linger Fed decision looms. PacWest falls more than 20%. As regional bank stocks slide to new lows. Chegg shares dropped more than 40% After education company says chat GPT is killing its business. Does that seem surprising? To me? It does not. It’s almost like what what did you think was gonna happen? When you open that Pandora’s box? What did you think was going to happen? Speaking of what did you think was going to happen? Job Openings fell more than expected in March to lowest level in nearly two years. Not a shocker. Definitely not. If you’ve been with me for a while now and you’re not a Johnny come lately. If you are welcome. Ville COMM And V tie that broke resolve it glad that you’re here. Glad that you’re waking up. But if you’ve been with me for a while this is not a surprise to you. In the TLDR key points we find job vacancies totaled 9.5 9 million for the month down from 9.9 7 million in February and below the fact set estimate for 9.6 4 million layoffs and discharges jumped by 248,000. Taking the rate as a share of the workforce up to 1.2% from 1%. Orders for manufactured goods increased point 9% In March less than the 1.3% estimate. I guess the only thing I would say that shocking about that is I’m not really convinced that there were more than nine and a half million job vacancies at least not legit jobs. have warned you before. I about fake jobs posted for optics and nothing more. Employment openings pulled back further in March hitting a nearly two year low in a sign that the ultra tight us job market is loosening and possibly putting less pressure on inflation. The Labor Department reported Tuesday. I say it and say it and say it. I’m gonna say it again one more time for the people in the cheap seats. If you wait to be officially told, in my opinion, you’re waiting too late. They’re just kind of humping you along into this thing. pushing you in little tiny increments, not allowing you to see the full picture just yet. If it if it happens this way, I don’t know. But by the time some talking head in the mainstream media comes out and says oh, we really don’t have a 3.5% unemployment rate. Oh, a bunch of companies are having layoffs and things are looking really bad and there’s no tight labor market and great resignation anymore. By the time that happens, if you are not already aware that it’s happening, if you have not already wore gamed out your strategy for how you intend to handle it. In my opinion, you’re screwed. You have waited too late. Over on Yahoo Finance, we find stocks plummet as banks sync Fed meeting gets underway. Banking concerns lingered after the fall of first republic investors were also tuned in to the start of the Feds two day policy meeting. So it is rather interesting that the Fed is having a two day policy meeting but then so is the WEF to talk specifically about the job market. Is that coincidence? I kind of doubt it. But I also think it’s amusing that yesterday I talked about the headline that Jamie Dimon said it’s okay. The banking crisis is over with the worst is over. Everything’s fine now and the thing to see here, people move along, move along. Apparently the market doesn’t think that that’s correct. Pack West Western alliance crash as bank fears continue. Check stock collapses after CEO says chat GPT hurt growth. Uber stock pops as bookings jump way up because people are getting back out again. On top of that, you know, I wrote a blog post about the Lyft CEO saying come on back. It’s time for people to get out, mix and mingle, get into society again, start taking ride share services get out of the house. That’s the time in which we live. Half of America’s banks are potentially insolvent. This is how a credit crunch begins. In this article, we read the twin crashes in US commercial real estate in the US bond market have collided with $9 trillion uninsured deposits in the American banking system. Such deposits can vanish in an afternoon in the cyber age. Oh, wow. This reporter is telling us to Ruth. Such deposits can vanish in an afternoon in the cyber age. And you better know it. The second and third biggest bank failures in US history have followed in quick succession. The US Treasury and Federal Reserve would like us to believe that they are idiosyncratic. This is a dangerous evasion. Yes, yes. Almost half of America’s 4800 banks are already burning through their capital buffers. They may not have to mark all losses to market under US accounting rules, but that does not make them solvent. Somebody will take those losses in quote. If you’re not aware of bank bail ins, if you’re not aware of laws that have been repealed Glass Steagall, Dodd Frank, if you don’t really understand what it means for the bank to say, You are the creditor, you as the depositor are also the creditor and if this goes belly up, you’re on the hook. If you don’t understand those concepts, please get educated. I don’t like to be hyperbolic. I don’t like to be Mad Max and Chicken Little and the Thunderdome and all that nonsense. So I’m not going to get on here and tell you Armageddon is happening tomorrow. What I will tell you is that if you are dependent on the money that you have in that bank, please understand the regulations and the ramifications. When you take your money and you put it in the bank. Legally speaking, you are giving that money to the bank. And if they want to put that money into a bad unscrupulous loan, they get to do that. If you’re not aware of these things, please, please educate yourself. Over on LinkedIn, we find Morgan Stanley eyes another 3000 cuts. Morgan Stanley is looking to cut another 3000 jobs globally by the end of this quarter outlets including Bloomberg Reuters, and C NBC reports citing anonymous sources, the banking giant which employs 82,000 people is reportedly cracking down on expenses as recession fears continue to restrain dealmaking. Morgan Stanley recently cut 2% of its staff and CEO James Gorman said that he doesn’t expect a rebound before the second half of this year or next year. The Bank had also reported a drop in first quarter profit from a year earlier dragged down by the slowdown in mergers and acquisitions and quote, yeah, I feel like this is another example of people want to LARP that even on Wall Street, even in banking, and finance, all of these people will have their walk out there protest against Artio. And I’m telling you as a major voice of dissent, no, they won’t. No, they won’t. Morgan Stanley eyes another 3000 cuts. By the time some talking head if they ever do, comes out on the television, or in some social media outlet and says, Yeah, so the job market is in the shit. It’s in terrible condition. You don’t have very many options. So you need to like RTO, because that’s what you’re told to do. You need to like, get in lockstep and toe the line, because that’s what you’re being told to do. And you need a job. They’re not going to be that blunt about it. They’ll use a lot of flowery, NLP programming type language, but that will be the gist of it. By the time that happens, it is too late. Please. I don’t give you advice on I don’t tell you what to do. If we were sitting at the pub, having a pint just talking this over and we were friends, I would say I would be so careful listening to people that want to LARP they want to have a laugh, they want to goof off. It amazes me how many people are still in denial. Really. They’re not sharpening their knife they’re listening to do falls in my opinion goofballs who think all of Gen Z will rebel against RTO and just sit it out at home. They think all men are lazy and not working all men, all individuals of the male gender are at home. They’re in grandma’s basement. They’re couchsurfing. They’re on dope, and they’re just all refusing to work. Let’s go ahead and throw the younger millennials and the Gen Z ers under the bus to none of them want to work either. They’re all couchsurfing. That is absurd. Yet it amazes me how many people even though they can go and look with their own eyes and see that that’s false, they still listen to that crap, and they will still believe it. And it’s getting to the point where I’m like, it’s not just to me, some of y’all not gonna make it. Some of y’all are gonna get wiped out. And if you’re in a situation of willful ignorance, Do you have anybody else to blame but yourself. I’m reminded of this weird show, and it’s deeply problematic. I am going to get into this on another episode because I intend at some point soon to record a Redux episode to hacking yourself. I’m happy to say that after a lot of studying and cramming and studying and cramming, I passed my exam to become a certified personal trainer. This is something that I have wanted to do for a long time. I’ve toyed with the idea for like 20 years of doing this. And it was one of those things where life would always get in the way I’d have something else that I felt like it was more of a priority, or I needed to put the Family First I needed to do other things. And I finally made the decision like because health and wellness have become huge for me after my experience with the long haul. And the cardiac issues and feeling like I was going to die. I’m like this is the time that I gave myself the Jed Hill speech. This is the present. This is the here and now. And I did not do that to work with clients. I’m newly minted. There’s a lot of experience I don’t have yet. But like I did this because I want to hack on myself. This is part of my own biohacking journey to be able to understand anatomy and physiology, better muscle groups proper nutrition, even though the accrediting organizations will all tell you like personal trainers or not nutritionists or dietitians. They can give you very basic, simplistic guidelines about good eating habits and they can refer you to the handy dandy food pyramid that our government fixes great. But beyond that, no you’re not supposed to really do or say anything as it relates to proper nutrition. I mean, you could tell a client for example, you know, Sally, I don’t think having a Big Mac is maybe the most nutritious choice or you know, Bob, I think binge eating candy every night in front of the television, probably not the best choice. You can say Those types of things, but you really have to be careful not to get into giving nutritional or dietary advice. And I probably will take things a bit further and get into something like a sports nutrition certification, again, for my own benefit and to hack myself. However, as I said, the other day, as I was recording, you need to have things that you can fall back on. In the event that I did ever want to monetize this, at least I would have the option to do it because of the proper certification and education behind me to do it. This is another tool that I can put in my own tool belt. Plus, it’s helping me to biohack myself. And that right now for me is the primary goal. But there’s this, like, deeply problematic, weird show that almost has like a cult status now because it’s on YouTube, and it’s called Secret eaters. And I think it was in like, I know, it was in the UK, but I think it’s probably 10 or 12 years old. And I say it’s deeply problematic, because I mean, some of the things that go on in that show are body shaming, fat shaming, food shaming, and they’re pretty cringe. I know it probably sound like, you know, not a Gen X or right now. But wow, they’re pretty cringe. Some of the comments that the host of the show makes to people and about people are are tacky. It’s a it’s a lot to take in. But there is a level of denial in that show. That is astounding. There’s one episode where this lady is I’m not kidding. You can go and see this for yourself if you choose to. She is sitting in front of a pizza box. And she says we don’t go out for fast food. We don’t get takeaway. We don’t eat pizza. And behind her shoulder, there’s a pizza box. That people will get on there. And it’s like if you’ve seen one episode, you’ve seen them all. They’ll all say we don’t eat candies and cookies. We don’t go for takeaway. We don’t go to McDonald’s, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. And then exactly the things that they said they don’t do. They do. And they do a lot. One of the things that that just blows my mind about that show is the amount of candy that gets eaten. I don’t. It’s hard for me to fathom adults doing that, because it reminds me a lot of kids on Halloween night. Like I remember, back in the 80s there was there was like, like Satanic Panic and all this stuff about razor blades in the candy and like weird urban legends and stuff. So you’d have to take your trigger treat bag and dump it out and the adults would have to check it over. Make sure that you’re not ingesting drugs or razor blades or whatever. And it was fun to take a look at what you received and pick out some favorite candies that you wanted to eat that night. Well these adult grown ass adults behave that way on a daily basis. I’m going to sit down with a plate of sweets and mindlessly eat the sweets while I’m in front of the television or the computer. And it’s like, Why? Why? When you really taste that stuff, and hey, this is just my opinion. And I could be wrong. Maybe it’s just my taste buds are weird, I don’t know. But when you really taste that like super processed candy, I mean really taste it, you put it in your mouth and you don’t chew it up and swallow it quickly, which people tend to do. By the way, when they’re having a candy binge. You really taste it. It tastes awful. It’s not like going to a French bakery or getting something from a professional chocolate tear that tastes like the nectar of the gods. This pre processed Ultra processed prepackaged convenience food candy tastes awful. I remember going to call him the name of the candy bar. But I remember when I did this exercise. I just I took a bite of the candy bar and I just tasted it I really like like warbled it around and to get the mouthfeel and to get all of the different taste sensations and I was like, actually, this tastes gross. I thought it tasted good when I was eating it quickly. But now that I’m really stopping and tasting the flavors of it, it’s not good. And that put me off. Now there are other candies especially like if I am eating them quickly. I’m not really paying that much attention. I’m just eating and eating and eating that I could left to my own devices. I probably could have a secret eaters slash kids on Halloween night candy bender. I will put my hand up in the air and say for me York, Peppermint Patties are freaking addictive. I don’t keep them in the house. At the supermarket, I don’t buy them. They’re just I pretend they don’t exist because for me, I don’t know what it is about York Peppermint Patties, but I could sit and eat. I don’t know five or six in one setting if I was left to my own devices to do it. So I’m not going to be holier than now and say, I just can’t imagine that somebody would ever do that or ever feel compelled to do that. I think for me, it’s more like every night, you want to do that every night. And then most of that stuff when you really taste it, and you take it slowly, and you get the mouthfeel, and everything is just doesn’t taste very good. Then you have the layers and layers and layers of denial, I’m healthy, I go to the gym. Other people have the same diet as me. And they’re the size of a matchstick. And I don’t understand why I can’t eat this way, and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, Excuse Excuse Excuse. And I do feel badly because I feel like a lot of these people have been exploited by the system. And they they think that the food is healthy. And they don’t understand exactly how bad and how junky the junk food really is. I’ll get into that more in like a Redux episode about hacking yourself. Big Food, Big Pharma, big ag, there’s some real scary chicanery that goes on in those areas, in my opinion. And I think if you listen to somebody like Callie means blowing the whistle, on purposely making these foods and beverages addictive and putting just junk in them and marketing them to kids, it’s very scary indeed. Now I bring all of this up in the context of the job market and the economy to say, don’t live in denial. Don’t be like the people and secret eaters who say, we never go to the fish and chips shop. We never get takeaway. We never go to a McDonald’s. We never eat candy. And then they’re busted on camera doing exactly that. If you get into this extreme denial, well, I’m not going to lose my job. My job would never be outsourced and put overseas. My job would never be lost to AI. That might happen to somebody else, but it won’t happen to me. Well, my boss says we’ll be able to work from home forever. So I’m sure he’s telling the truth. Really, really be careful about living in denial. I told the story yesterday about my friend who was involved in print journalism, saw what was coming and refused to do anything about it until it was too late. That does not have to be you. What skills do you have that you can sharpen up on? Not to say that you need to monetize every hour of every day. Do you have a plan B? Do you have some other skill set to fall back on in case of emergency. Today it is Wednesday, May 3 Obviously the main focus of today’s news is the Fed over on fortune.com. We find fed faces bank collapse and debt ceiling fears as it prepares to raise interest rates for the 10th time. In the byline, we find the wide range of potential outcomes could provoke divisions among Fed officials, even as they’re expected on Wednesday to raise their benchmark rate to 5.1%, the highest level in 16 years COVID era graduates are getting trained on how to actually work in the same room with other people. Right, because before COVID, they didn’t already have the experience of being in a classroom with other people or being in a college setting with other people maybe even living in a dorm with other people. Like this is the first time they have been subterranean mold people who have never been in the same room with other humans before. And therefore they need to be trained on how to actually work in the same room with other people. This is the type of headline where if you just barely scratched the surface, you see how asinine it truly is. The way that we should rephrase it, in my opinion is COVID era graduates who have been working from home and are now being herded back to the office whether they like it or they don’t need to learn how to conform to the corporate boot on the back of their neck. Because if they want to succeed and get ahead at the office, they have to go along to get along and be liked. That’s what it really says one of Wall Street’s top investors says banks forgot finance 101 and made the same investing mistake that has caused crises for decades. So this is just more of the same old same old mom, Bob, oh, these people are ignorant. They’re stupid. They’re making mistakes. Now they mean well, but they’re just making horrific decisions completely on accident because what you’re not allowed to get out in the mainstream media and say is this is being orchestrated on purpose? No. Instead you have to say, oops, a daisy. It was an accident. It was poor planning. It was bad thinking but it all had good intentions behind it. Wink. A rare me to lawsuit in finance was set to expose Wall Street’s sexist culture. It just settled out of court. Much of the surprise of no one Amazon’s cloud business is clamping down on managers freedom to hire and latest cost control says leaked memo. Apple co founder Steve Wozniak isn’t scared of AI but he believes it will be used by horrible people to do evil things. Hmm, I’m not scared of it, but it’s totally going to be used for the purposes of evil. Okay. Wow. Over on LinkedIn, we find Uber wants you to share rides again. A couple of years after the pandemic forced the company to place the initiative on standby. Uber is pushing forward once again with ride sharing. The San Francisco based company says more butts in seats of fewer cars will help achieve our goal of zero emissions reports Axios. It plans to expand its revamped share shared rides offering Uber X share to five additional US cities on Wednesday to make ride hailing more affordable and environmentally friendly. On Tuesday, Uber reported better than expected quarterly results as bookings jumped 40% from a year ago in the US and Canada boosted by lower fares and quote, I would also say probably boosted by RTO initiatives boosted by people being told we’re tired of playing. The pandemic is over. It’s time to go on back. Get out of the house, go socialize, go shopping, go eat at restaurants get back in the cube farm. I don’t think that these things are coincidental. I do think it’s funny the use of the term more butts in seats. Because corporate America has that same initiative Do they not get back to the cube farm get a butt in the seat where we can see you. Over in on CNBC we find Jenny Craig tells employees it will shut its doors. Jenny Craig will close its doors after four decades in the weight loss and nutrition business. According to internal communications to employees reviewed by NBC News. I’m going to scoot down a little bit because they mentioned several weight loss drugs. The company has faced increased competition recently after a handful of drugs that can help people lose weight such as wood govi, rebel osis and ozempic hit the market promising to help consumers shed pounds. The core of Jenny Craig’s client facing operations happened mostly at its physical centers, according to employees, but consumers generally have been pivoting more toward online services in recent years and quote, yes, I’m sure that’s true. Why go to an in person meeting when you could probably just do something online, whether that’s meeting with people over some kind of teleconferencing or getting your instructions. I mean, weightwatchers, for example, will let you do everything online. Back in the day, you had to physically drive to a meeting and have a public weigh in. But you don’t have to do that anymore. If you’re just using the internet. To me that part is not necessarily surprising. What I find the most disturbing about all of this is the idea that we go V rebels this and it was Olympic, which to my understanding are diabetes drugs are helping people lose weight so it’s like screw it. Why would we go to a Gini Cray when we could just take drugs from big pharma instead? Such as the American mindset. And for the record, I don’t know anything about the Jenny Craig program. That’s one of the few diets out there that during my yo yo dieting years, I never tried I never went to a Jenny Craig. I saw their commercials on TV. But I never went to any of the facility. So I don’t really know what kind of dietary plan or eating and exercise habits they wanted people to form so I cannot speak to what their experience is like or what’s the long term success rate? Do people go in and lose weight and then they gain it back when they’re off the diet? I don’t know what the success rate is or what their model look like. Yes, it makes sense that a brick and mortar store where you have to go and publicly do all of these things with loose favor, instead of just being able to do it online. I’m just super super disturbed by the idea of Quick Fix culture will eat a whole bunch of junk food and then we’ll take it off with with govi rebels this or ozempic this like totally for me as a dobro pathologist for medical moment like this. This is western world thinking. Also on CNBC, we find deposition of JP Morgan CEO diamond and Jeffrey Epstein lawsuit set for late May soar says in the TLDR key points we read JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon will be deposed in late May over two days for a lawsuit accusing the giant bank of benefiting from sex trafficking by the late money manager Jeffrey Epstein. A source told CNBC Amon Java’s hopefully I’m saying that right. The government of the US Virgin Islands and one of Epstein’s accusers are suing JP Morgan which has denied any wrongdoing. Epstein who killed himself in jail WINC in 2019, while awaiting trial for child Sex trafficking previously was a friend of two former presidents Trump and Clinton and Britain’s Prince Andrew and quote and what will happen there? Will anybody be brought to justice will anything like really revealing ever see the light of day? Probably not. If the facts come out about all of this, I just don’t think it will be within our lifetimes it will be after everybody involved is dead and gone. I mean, like long dead and gone. I hate to sound so pessimistic, but I just know how these cronies cover for each other. Are you looking for more? Don’t forget, you can find Sara on her blogs at CauseyConsultingLLC.com and at SaraCausey.com. You can also read her content on medium and substack. On with the show. Today it is Thursday, May 4, you know I got to do it. May the Fourth be with you. That may be about the only happy news we get today. Over on CNBC. We find regional bank stocks continue to slide on Thursday, with PacWest leading the way down 54%. As of this recording, I think it was sitting at about $3.26 A share which just seems a bit unbelievable. Dow drops 200 points turns negative for the year as bank fears grow. You don’t say hmm, I hope that you didn’t listen to people out there. Jamie Dimon. Who said the worst is over and everything sunshine and roses. Is it. peloton shares plunged after company reports wider than expected loss over on Yahoo Finance it’s a similar scene pack West Western alliance plunge testing predictions that worst of crisis is over pack list and other regional banks plunged overnight on a wave of new pessimism about the industry gosh you know it’s almost like the stock market and the rest of the banking sector didn’t get Jamie diamonds memo it’s almost like they did not listen to his edict that the worst was over and things were gonna be okay. Thinking of like Larry David. Pretty good. Today. They are good except it’s not. It’s pretty freakin bad. Stocks slump as regional banks tank and pack West collapses. AI is an inevitability. Mortgage rates slide But challenges remain for buyers. Everyone in the banking space is a little too happy. US banking crisis close to 190 banks could collapse according to study. Let’s click on that. Let’s just rip the band aid off. With the failure of three regional banks since March and another one teetering on the brink will America soon see a cascade of bank failures. Bloomberg reported Wednesday that San Francisco based pack West Bank Corp is mulling a sale last week first republic bank became the third bank to collapse the second largest bank failure in US history after Washington Mutual which collapsed in 2008. Amid the financial crisis. Yeah, I remember that. And I just see so many shadows of what we experienced in oh eight and oh nine. So anytime I hear somebody, particularly if it’s um, arrogant realtor or mortgage broker who’s living in an alternate reality. Anytime I hear somebody say we would just never, we could never have that happen again. Everything is so sound everything is so safe. It’s like what a joke. Because we were given all of the same reassurances going into 2008 Don’t take my word for it. Go and do the research for yourself. If you weren’t alive and well as an adult with a job and adult responsibilities, paying attention to what was going on in the economy go look it up for yourself. The same old same old, same old, the same cogs in the machine of Washington and Wall Street and corporate America told us the same bullshit then nothing to see here. People move along, move along the Fed is in control. Don’t even worry about it. And then when the poop hit the fan. Wow, was it a mess? I’m thinking back to that documentary I talked about in a previous episode age of easy money. And how commentators in that documentary said the whole system collapsed and oh eight, the whole thing went kaput. And it’s really just been on life support ever since. At the risk of sounding very pessimistic. At some point you have to pay the dues. You can’t just keep moving the due date for the bill into the future at some point you have to pay the bill. After the demise of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in March, a study on the fragility of the US banking system found that 186 more banks are at risk of failure, even if only half of their uninsured depositors uninsured depositors stand to lose a part of their deposit. If the bank fails, potentially giving them incentives to run we find in parentheses decide to withdraw their funds, uninsured deposits or customer deposits greater than the $250,000 FDIC deposit insurance limit. Regional Banks are failing because the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes to tamp down inflation have eroded the value of bank assets, such as government bonds and mortgage backed securities. Most bonds pay a fixed rate that becomes attractive when interest rates fall driving up demand and the price of the bond. On the other hand, if interest rates rise, investors will no longer prefer the lower fixed interest rate paid by a bond thus driving down its price. In thinking about those mortgage backed securities, I just I have to laugh again, at the brokers who told me the loans now are so solid, they’re so safe. We learned a lot from hap, from what happened in oh eight and oh nine and there’s just no way that people are getting approved if they’re not legit. First of all, I call BS on that. I’ve heard way too many stories of people being approved, even though they were swimming in debt and their deep DTI debt to income ratio sucked. Then you look at the job market, what happens if somebody was legitimately approved for a loan? And then they lose their job? What if all of the working adults in the household who are needed to be working in order to make the mortgage payment are laid off at about the same time? Then what? I hope that that doesn’t happen to anybody think we just have to be very, very careful about putting on rose colored glasses and assuming what would just never happen when we had the 2008 2009 yet happened then but it would never happen again. I mean, it could because this to me, screams 2008. I hope I’m wrong. I hope that maybe by some miracle, it turns out that Jamie Dimon is right, and the worst is over and everything is just healed, as if by magic as if by a miracle. I’m not willing to bet on that, however. I mean, he I’m sure it feels like a rose right now because JPMorgan Chase is profiteering off of this like nobody’s freaking business. Are they going to step in and buy one of these banks that’s in trouble now? Will it be one of the other major players on Wall Street? You know, there are conspiracy theories, wink wink, nudge nudge that tell us that eventually, there’s going to be just a small handful of huge global conglomerate banks that control everything. And you won’t really have a choice, it’ll just be the illusion of choice. And I feel that we already I mean, look at the system, this system is what it is. If you want to really not sleep so well at night, go read Childhoods End. And look at what happens in that sci fi novella. And then compare it to what’s going on now. And you’re like, Holy shit, that was pretty appreciate. It’s a conspiracy theory, though. I mean, I’m just never happened, I’m sure. I feel like we already don’t have much choice as it is now. But if you concentrate all of that wealth and power into the hands of five or six megabanks, and it’s like, these are your options, take it or leave it, you can get thrown out onto the ice of Gotham. Or you can play ball the way that we want you to people are so conditioned for that already. Do this or else people, people are just very numb. tuned out. I’m thinking again of Whitney Webb talking about Americans being slaves to convenience. And that’s so true. As I’ve been on this health and wellness journey, as well as getting my personal trainer certification. I’m thinking next that I might go for a sports nutrition certification. And I’m just learning I’m cramming and I’m studying. I’m learning as much as I can, at this point to biohack myself. And it’s like, I’ve been watching these documentaries. I’ve been reading these materials, some of which are quite frankly dry textbook materials that will just about make your eyes cross after a little while. But one of the things that I hear in these documentaries, these food and fast food related documentaries is it’s just more convenient. It’s just too easy to go to the drive thru on the way home it’s too easy to call an order a pizza or to get DoorDash or GrubHub. Like I don’t, I don’t want to cook. There was one lady and one of the documentaries I watched that was like, it makes too much of a mess. Nobody will help me do the dishes. Nobody will help me clean the kitchen. So it’s like I’m stuck cooking the food and then cleaning everything up afterwards. And after I’ve worked from eight to five, I don’t want to come home and do that every night. It’s too much to ask. I also watched a pretty depressing and horrifying Documentary about people that just feed their babies and toddlers fast food. Like all the time, like the babies and toddlers don’t get any baby food or home cooked meals. They’re just eating like, hamburgers, cheeseburgers, french fries, milkshakes, there was one kid on the documentary who I think they said he has six or seven cans worth of full sugar cola every day. And he freaks out and gets mad, and we’ll throw a tantrum, if he doesn’t get that. That is crazy. And you know, even if you don’t think about anything else, and that boy’s health, imagine his dental situation, his teeth are gonna rot. I just, it’s hard for me to it’s, it’s hard for me to process that. But the boy’s mother was like, it’s about convenience, I don’t want to deal with him having a temper tantrum, I don’t want to cook all day, I don’t want to listen to him yell and scream, it’s just too easy to hand him a hamburger, and to put soda pop in his sippy cup and just say here, go sit in front of the TV and eat this. I feel like in part, we’re paying for the sins of this commitment to convenience, instead of being committed to health and wellness, instead of being committed to saying I will get up and spend the extra time to do X, Y and Z. It’s like, Screw it, I’d rather just sit on the couch. I’d rather binge watch NetFlix and eat pizza. And just let that be that. You know, this is something that still yet I’ve been able to renew some of my language lessons and conversation practices, because I’m not having to cram for that PT test anymore. But like, this comes up frequently in language exchanges and conversation practices that you’d have with people, particularly in Europe, but in other parts of the world as well. It’s difficult for them to wrap their minds around this American concept of I go to work, and I’m very sedentary at work. But then I also want to come home and be sedentary. I don’t have any hobbies. I don’t have any athletic pursuits or outside interests, I come home and we all sit in front of the TV or in front of a device where we’re streaming something and we eat junk food, and then we then we go to bed. And that’s it. That is our life. When you talk to people in other countries, and you’re doing your language exchanges, you’re talking about hobbies, and introducing one another and all of that. You will hear things like I love to play the sport or I love to exercise I love to read I like to go to the movies, we like to get together on such and so night of the week and do whatever. But it’s like they’re getting out of the house. And they’re doing something active, even if it’s not like coordinated sports per se. It could just be Well, we really like to go and take a walk around the park and we like to take the dogs to the dog park and we like to go mountain biking every single weekend. I mean, you you hear these things very commonly. And then in America, it’s just like, well, we sit and watch Netflix and eat pizza and drink burger. And I feel like that commitment to convenience is leading us right down a very dark, depressing hole. Because people are not going to do anything. If all of these banks snaffle each other up. And then you’re left with five or six mega banks controlling the freaking world, nobody’s going to do a damn thing about it. People will just say, well, it’s more convenient anyway. I mean, I guess I like this better, because now I can do all of these cool AI technological things that my local bank didn’t have before. So I guess it’s fine. Or even if they get mad, and they have a bit of a kerfuffle about it at first, ultimately, nothing’s going to change. It’s like if you hand people and of junk food and soda pops and streaming content to watch. Oh, this is super conspiracy theory. Let me let me really think about how I want to say this just a second because I’ve done on like my full scale tin foil suit. Okay, if you give people enough fast food and soda pop and streaming and technology, it becomes very easy. Not difficult, but very easy to do the Harare method of you’re part of the useless class now. So you need to put on your virtual reality goggles and sit in your hovel, and eat whatever crap that we serve to you. And you should just be happy with that. Because the VR existence is better than your pathetic puny life anyway, you’re already addicted to technology. You already just sit on the couch like an inner lump without much to do. So why don’t you just go ahead and do what we’re telling you get in your hovel. You will on nursing and TV be happy getting your Hubble and put on these goggles. And don’t worry, because your overlords are in charge. And they’re taking care of everything for you. I hope not, I pray not. But Wow, just wow. Today it is Friday, May 5, and wow. I’m pretty tired, pretty wiped out. It’s been a long and busy week. And to cap it off, we get just an absolute utter bullshit jobs report. All I can do at this point is laugh. It’s so silly. It’s so absurd. And as I’ve been on this health and wellness quest and doing my studying and looking into nutrition and all of that. It’s like, okay, if somebody hasn’t figured out yet that doing things like drinking multiple two liters of soda pop, and eating pizza, and cheeseburgers and french fries and cupcakes, if they haven’t figured out that that’s not health food. That’s not let’s say, the most healthful way of eating, what can you really do? I don’t feel like the information is that hidden? I don’t feel like it should be a particular surprise to anybody that if you were to say, you know, John Doe, I think that binge eating pizza and drinking a lot of full sugar soda pop all day long. Not the best, most nutritious, most healthful choice in life, I’m gonna go out on a limb and just kind of think in that direction. What else is there left to do? And I feel that way, also about the stupid jobs reports. If somebody is just not getting it, if they still haven’t figured out that, in my opinion, this is all a bunch of hot air and bullshit. It’s just bogus, fake manipulated numbers. If they haven’t figured that out yet. I just don’t think they’re ever going to get it. Somebody must be really far gone. To not understand it. I was watching a documentary earlier this week or last weekend. I’m so tired. It all blends together at some point. I guess in the past seven days, I watched this documentary. And it was actually about European unemployment from several years ago. And there was this program in Italy that was designed theoretically, I guess, to reduce unemployment amongst young people. So they would do an apprenticeship, and they would get paid for that. And then supposedly, hopefully, they would be hired on as a full time employee after they finished school slash the apprenticeship. And then they were talking about how in reality, that didn’t happen. Theoretically, It all sounded good. But in actual practice, it was promises unfulfilled. And there was a social worker who was talking about the failure of the program. And one of the things that she said is the government doctors, its employment numbers. I plan to actually record an entire episode about that documentary and about the economic situation and the unemployment situation that those countries face. But that’s it. Six of one half a dozen of the other. It doesn’t really seem to matter. The continent, the country, the leadership, the party, this happens, and it happens. And it happens. The government doctors, its employment numbers, and I thought, Well, yeah. Doesn’t that sound familiar? So on CNBC, we find job growth totals 253,000 In April, beating expectations, even as the US economy slows. Does that even make any sense? I mean, just if you saw nothing but that headline, does that even make any sense? Now, for those of you who are involved in the job market on a regular basis, whether you’re doing staffing, recruiting HR work, you’re a hiring manager, you’re a business owner that does your own hiring, you’re a job seeker, maybe you’re at a job that sucks, and you’d really like to move, but you’re looking at what’s out there, and the slowness involved and you’re thinking, maybe not, maybe I’m gonna have to stay here and just ride the storm out. Do you feel like we have low unemployment and all these supposedly legit open jobs? It’s absurd. And the key points we find non farm payrolls increased 253,000 For April beating Wall Street estimates for growth of only 180,000, which I wouldn’t have believed on either. The unemployment rate was 3.4%. Wow. Holy crow. So now we’ve come down from 3.5%, which I also thought was bullshit. So now we get an even bullshitty or bullshit statistic. In my opinion, the unemployment rate was 3.4% against an estimate for 3.6% and tied for the lowest level since 1969. average hourly earnings rose point 5% for the month and increased 4.4% from a year ago, both higher than expected. Well, let me just set the microphone aside. So I can have a big round of applause. Wow. Wow. weaselly how excitable? How wonderful. Yeah, I think that we’re getting another glimpse of what’s going on here. Because as I’ve made the argument before, okay, just my opinion, and I could be wrong. My theory, my idea. I feel like these, in my opinion, artificially manipulated, bullshit numbers are being used as justification in air quotes for the Fed to crash the job market, which they have been itching to do. They’ve not been shy and saying, so I’ve dropped links. I’ve provided evidence many, many times on my blog, and on this podcast. Here’s another facet, another shaft of light, if you will, in the prism, Biden says, Say goodbye to job growth and low unemployment if the debt ceiling isn’t lifted. Hmm, the plot thickens, doesn’t it. So now, we also have the justification for the debt ceiling to be lifted this supposedly robust and hot labor market with a low unemployment rate. Now, even though all of that is complete and utter nonsense, in my opinion, you’re supposed to think that it exists because we need to lift the debt ceiling in order to protect it. So even though it’s all fake, we still need to protect that which is fake so that we can do what we really want to do anyway, which is lift the debt ceiling and turn on the printing press and go back to QE. Which is going to make inflation worse, like it’s not bad enough already. In the TLDR key points for this piece of crap. We find President Joe Biden used the strong April jobs report to warn that a failure to raise the debt ceiling would result in sweeping job losses. Like we haven’t already had sweeping job losses. We have, we have we’ve had some painful layoffs. But that’s the tip of the iceberg really mean when you look at the big tech layoffs. And then you also look at the amount of HR staffing and recruiting individuals that were let go. One of the things that that tells you is people are not planning on hiring. They’re not worried about employee retention. They’re not worried about talent acquisition, they’re like, I think we’re good, I think bringing Viharn and more people on anyway, there already have been sweeping job losses. But sadly, it’s I don’t think it’s as bad as it could get. I don’t want to be super pessimistic, pessimistic and say as bad as it’s gonna get. But I’m worried I am worried. The economy added 253,000 jobs last month far outpacing Wall Street estimates of 180,000 Rank lifting the debt ceiling is necessary for the government to cover existing spending commitments already approved by Congress and the president. Yeah. What a mess What an absolute dumpster fire train wreck of a mess. Oh, speaking of which, when we scoot over to fortune.com we find American worker productivity is declining at the fastest rate in 75 years. And it could see CEOs go to war against work from home. Oh. The byline we find Gregory dayco reveals what’s going on with the American workers worst slump of the post world war two era. It’s not all about remote work. He says open AI CEO Sam Altman says the remote work experiment was a mistake. And it’s over. I see. I see. You know on that note, I also saw a news alert on my phone today that the national emergency National pandemic whatever the hell this has been for the past three years is set to expire and they’re not planning to renew it. And I’m like, do you think that this is coincidence until you have these mayors of the large cities talking about how they want people to go back and cross pollinate. It’s time to eat, it’s time to go shopping, you need to be back working downtown and doing your money spending in these here parts. Then you also have the CEO saying it’s time to come on back to the office. pandemic is over. We’re tired of playing. It’s time for you to come on back. And then hmm, the declaration of emergency and calling it a pandemic. All of that’s getting ready to expire. It’s not going to be renewed. Hmm. I wonder if that’s a complete and total coincidence, because I don’t freaking think so. Yeah. I’m not unrelated note. You know, I always talk about being strategic about who you listen to. and for what reason, if they make predictions, do their predictions come true. If they report on news, is it accurate? If they are telling you about what I call whispers on the wind? Do those turn out to be accurate or do they turn out to be false? Because I feel like God, I’ve got to really think about this. There’s a video that I saw, it popped up on my feed and it just before I ever even watched the video, it literally made me laugh out loud. Just looking at the title. I’ll drop a link to it if I can find it again. But the title of the video was called off grid Grifters. And I laughed and laughed at that. To be clear, do I think everyone who’s on social media claiming to live an off grid homesteading lifestyle is a liar or a grifter? No, I don’t think that. Do I think that everyone on social media claiming to live off grid and to be a homesteader is telling the truth? No. I think you have a mix. I think you have some people that are being honest, and they’re legit. And they’re just trying to monetize a social media or a YouTube channel any way that they can, because they need that money. And then you have other people that are just straight up lying. And they’re full of it. They say that they do all of these things on their own. They live this very primitive Luddite lifestyle, yet they’re filming everything, putting it on YouTube, it’s like, I don’t know about that. I think we might have differing versions of what it means to be technophobic and Luddite in your approach. But I saw that video and I just I laughed before I ever even watched it just the title alone. I was like, Thank you for recording this because it needed to be said, I cleaned up my feed of a lot of just junk. People who I don’t I don’t even really care whether or not they’re Grifters. I don’t care if they’re lying. I don’t I don’t care if it’s all staged. And it’s hokey, whatever. For me, it’s like if you make a prediction, and it doesn’t come true, then I count that as a strike against you. And then if you make a prediction, it doesn’t come true. And you just gloss past it. That’s what really makes me mad. You know, I’ve taken a bold stance on saying these companies are not going to roll up the sidewalks on their corporate real estate. If corporate America says you’re going back, you’re going back. If it turns out that I am wrong on that, I will come on the air and I will eat crow, I will have a massive slice of humble pie. And instead of having my heart man say I was right yet again, I will have him say Sarah was wrong, she lifted this one did not knock this one out of the ballpark. Because I think that level of integrity matters. And it pisses me off when these people will throw out BS and gossip and hot air. And then they’re never accountable for it. They just keep on keeping on. It’s like they never even made a false prediction. They never even fanned the flames of discontent and then walked away. It’s like some of them just want to stir up mess, like throwing gasoline on an open flame and then walking away from it. I don’t like that. And I’m so glad that I have gotten away from that crap. So for me, I’ve really been reevaluating the predictions, the whispers on the wind, etc. I mean, food shortages, I think are a great case in point. Now, to be clear, to be fair, I’m not saying that those things couldn’t happen. Maybe they haven’t happened yet. And I hope to God that they don’t happen. But there were people saying, Oh, you’re gonna go in the grocery store and there’s not going to be food there or there will be food, but there’s not going to be very much of it and it will be a lot more expensive. And I remember reporting on that and saying like, this is part of what’s going on in the emergency preparedness community. Is this something that we should be paying attention to? And I have been paying attention to it and I am here to tell you at least in the Midwest, I’m not seeing it. Inflation, god, yes. I, if the Fed wants to tell you that inflation is abating, I am sure as hell not saying that. But that’s the thing. It’s like, it doesn’t even matter if it’s junk food, or it’s healthy food, it’s all across the board more expensive right now, doesn’t matter if you want to get potato chips and a candy bar, if you’re going in to get fruits and vegetables, everything in that freaking grocery store is too expensive. But in terms of shortages, just walking into the grocery store, and and only being maybe 50% of what it used to be, I’m not seeing it. I’m not seeing it. I hope we don’t see it. And maybe in other parts of the country, with supply chain issues, maybe in in areas that are considered to be a food desert anyway, those problems may very well be happening right now in real time, and it’s just in a different area that I am not seeing. So I feel like for me, and again, I don’t give you advice, I don’t tell you what to do or what not to do. I feel like for me, there are certain people that I kept an open mind what they were saying, I gave them what I would consider to be a fair shake. And the stuff that they’ve said the stuff that they’ve predicted flat out has not happened. Now, maybe it hasn’t happened yet. And I’m sure that if we were to sit down in a room with those people and say like, Hey, you made these predictions, and they sure shit didn’t happen. What’s up with that? That’s what they would say, well, just because it hasn’t happened right now, doesn’t mean it won’t happen at some point in the future. I hope not. I hope not. I feel like there gets to be a certain point where whatever you can do, you’ve done it, and there’s nothing else left to do. Like the finances are not there. The time and energy are not there. And I also think back to something else I’ve warned you about on previous broadcasts, hearing and seeing people within the emergency preparedness community talking about standard American western world diseases, high blood pressure, high cholesterol, heart disease, diabetes. And it’s like, well, I mean, if you’re hoarding food that’s part of the standard American western world diet. Is it completely a surprise? I mean, some of the stuff that these people will put on their holes. Oh, look at what all I got. Isn’t this amazing? And then you’re looking at it’s junk. It’s just junk food. And it’s like, I don’t know that. It’s the best choice to be hoarding that type of food. If you want to send me hate mail, if that opinion offends you, I am sorry. It’s better to eat that than starve. Of course, listen. You. Unless this is the very first time you’re listening to me, you already know. I’ve eaten the microwave burritos, the Spaghettios the generic brand cereals with skim milk. I’ve done it God. Yeah. God. Yeah, I remember. Let’s like people that Oh, I would never eat spam. I would never eat hot dogs. Yeah, you would, if you got hungry enough, you damn sure would. So I understand from that perspective, somebody saying I’m going to hoard this food and just put it in my basement or put it in a spare bedroom and say, I’ve got it in case we ever need it. I get that line of thinking. For me, I’m like, Man, wouldn’t it be better to spend that time and money ensuring that you don’t need it? That’s just, that’s just where my mind is going. I’m really, we’ve sat down and had some of those difficult conversations about lifestyle changes and investments. Like, I would always think about passive income is one of those things like that was a pipe dream, because there’s so many Ponzi schemes and pyramid schemes and MLMs and just straight up fraudsters in that arena. And I’m trying to really put more time and research into that I haven’t done anything. I’m just in that researching phase. That’s like for me renewing my interest in my foreign language pursuits, sharpening the knife, they’re finally getting my certification to be a personal trainer and then looking further into like a sports nutrition cert. I don’t want to monetize that right now. I’m still wet behind the ears. I’m still learning I’m still experimenting and trying and biohacking myself. But the point is, if I ever needed to monetize my foreign language, abilities, my PT abilities I could it exists. And I’m like, for me, it just made the better decision to spend time and energy there. sharpening the knife as opposed to hoarding like you crappy, standard American diet foods that I really should not be putting in my body unless it becomes an absolute emergency. I heard a woman that was being interviewed the other day about food banks. And she was talking about how she and her husband had not ever had to use a food bank before, but she lost her job. And her husband still has his job however, he’s been like, kind of sort of furloughed, I guess, like his hours have been cut. So some days, some days he’s able to work some days not. And so they’re having to rely on a food bank. And she was talking about the food that they get is stuff like spam and hot dogs and rice and pasta. And she was like, I I know enough about health and wellness that I know this is not exactly health food, but we’re having to eat it to to not starve. It’s just calories we’re putting in our body just have calories to put in our body. And it is a sad state of affairs that we’re looking at this type of situation in so called First World America. I’m not, I’m not telling you it’s right. I’m not telling you it’s good or that it’s fair. I’m just juxtaposing all of these different images in my mind of like, okay, it seems to me that perhaps, you know, maybe in my opinion, in my opinion, only not telling you what to do, but in my opinion, only 14 Things like ramen noodles and Spaghettios and cans of spam. Is that the best thing to be doing? Maybe, maybe you’re thinking if if Uncle so and so that refuses to work a job comes around to Panhandle for food, I can at least put some things in a grocery bag and send him on his way. And I’m giving him calories that he can eat just to have calories. Maybe that’s the situation you’re in. I don’t know. I’m just thinking like for myself and my family, we really made the decision like some of these people, very well may be off grid Grifters. And the fact that they’re getting on social media telling people this is the type of food to go hoard because it’s cheap, easy and available. That’s perhaps not the best choice for us. Again, not to tell you what to do or what not to do, and maybe the only choice that you have right now. And you we may be like the grasshopper that single summer. Maybe for us at some point we’ll be like, Damn, we shouldn’t afford it that spam when the zombies are out eating your brains and we’re in the Thunderdome Wink, wink. Maybe at that point, we will regret not buying the spam and the cans of Spaghettios and rice and whatever. Maybe we will regret that I hope not that it’s possible. It’s a bet it’s just a giant bet you’re playing the odds. And for me, I’m like I don’t I don’t think that that’s the best choice. I don’t think it’s the best choice financially, I don’t think it’s the best choice nutritionally. And I feel like they’re the time and energy that I would be spending trying to go on these food holes, like they do on social media and then find a place to put all this stuff. It’s like, I feel like that time and energy for me personally is just better spent in other arenas. I think I would rather figure out ways to make money or have my money work for me in an investment strategy, then to pinch pennies too much. And then hoard food that’s going to eventually give me diabetes, high blood pressure, high cholesterol. Oh, and then I’m dependent on Big Pharma and I’m in the system. For me, I just that’s a big, big No thanks. So the most I will say is be judicious. Be smart about who you’re listening to. and for what reason? If they make these big, sweeping predictions about Armageddon, the Thunderdome. All the banks are going to collapse overnight. All of society will collapse overnight, we will be in primitive times all over again, everything is just going to be wiped clean overnight. You will go to bed and everything’s normal, you will wake up and you will be back in the stone age. You should hoard food that’s full of fat, sugar and salt that’s probably going to ruin your arteries as soon as you eat it. If they’re telling you things like that you have to really decide for yourself. Is that somebody that I want to be listening to stay safe, stay sane, stay healthy. And I will see you in the next episode. Thanks for tuning in. If you enjoyed this episode, please take a quick second to subscribe to this podcast and share it with your friends. We’ll see you next time.