28 Apr “the worst of both worlds”
So here’s another “no duh” moment.
“The U.S. economy has been surprisingly resilient in the face of aggressive interest rate hikes and stubborn inflation over the past year, but it started to show signs of wear and tear in the first quarter.” -Yahoo Finance, Ibid.
Really? Resilient? Tell that to the many people who’ve been laid off. At this point, LinkedIn isn’t even featuring a running tally of layoffs anymore. I suppose it’s just too contradictory to the “everyone’s doin’ great, 3.5% unemployment rate” bullsh*t narrative. 🤷🏻♀️
“‘This morning’s data was the worst of both worlds, with growth down and inflation up,’ said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer of Independent Advisor Alliance.” -Yahoo Finance, Ibid.
This seems to be a theme we’re dealing with. I think back to the labeling of hybrid work as “the hell of half measures.” Which – let’s be honest – it is.
In the same way that overpriced houses aren’t flying off the market as they had been, I’m already seeing the same thing in the job market.
I know, I know. This is NOT what anyone wants to hear, but I’m trying to be honest.
Sure, I could be a social media panderer and tell you, “Nothing to see here. Move along, move along” or “Even in a recession or 70s era stagflation, who cares. Keep job hoppin’ and spending money and YOLO.”
–https://causeyconsultingllc.com/2022/06/28/aint-nothing-flying-rn/ published on June 28, 2022
My hope is that you saw this coming ahead of time and you’ve prepared. Here’s another example of why I say that:
“Although the unemployment rate remained near a record low at 3.5% in March, giving some economists faith that the economy can avoid a recession or stagflation, Campbell warned that it’s a lagging measure: ‘I expect that we will see more people unemployed as we get deeper into this calendar year.'” -Yahoo Finance, Ibid. emphasis mine
*facepalm. Just facepalm.*
In my opinion:
- NO. We do not have a 3.5% unemployment rate.
- NO. Layoffs are not relegated to Big Tech and Silicon Valley.
- NO. There are not 2 legit open jobs for every 1 unemployed person.
- NO. The job market will not save the broader economy.
‘Think about it.
There are currently 11.4 million open jobs in the US.
Unemployment is less than 4%.’
Yeeeaaaahhhh… I dunno about that. There’s often a lag between what’s happening in real-time versus what’s being reported to us. I personally do not think real unemployment is less than 4% right now. I also don’t think it will be long before we finally find out “officially” that unemployment is trending upward. Some of these open jobs are not really open jobs that will get filled. Some I am sure are up just for show, some are evergreen requisitions that stay posted all the time, and some are probably legit. What is the exact ratio there? I’m not sure, but I don’t believe 11.4 million jobs are truly open in America right now. I also believe that people who aren’t involved in HR / staffing work will look at statistics like that and get a false sense of security. “Oh, OK. Sounds like there’s still a labor shortage. Sounds like all is still well.” No. Nyet. Nein.
–https://causeyconsultingllc.com/2022/06/17/toxic-positivity-your-li-feed/ published on June 17, 2022
“Some factors masked the underlying strength of the economy in the BEA’s latest data release, however, including a decrease in inventory growth. In 2022, U.S. companies boosted GDP growth as they aggressively rebuilt their inventories after years of crippled supply chains, but now that trend is over.” -Yahoo Finance, Ibid.
Ah, OK. Certain factors “masked” the economy. LOL. Urrkay.
“And Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. economist Ellen Zentner said Thursday that after a ‘modest step down’ in economic growth in the first quarter, she is ‘tracking’ second-quarter GDP growth at negative 0.4%. ‘We expect to see significant slowing into 2Q23 as the cumulative effect of tighter monetary policy as well as banking pressures push growth into negative territory,’ she wrote in a note to clients.” -Yahoo Finance, Ibid.
If they are actually admitting that a slowdown is coming – like this elusive recession that’s on the horizon somewhere, ha ha – buckle up.
I’ll say it again for the umpteenth time: IMO, if you are waiting to be “officially” told there’s an economic poop storm by the MSM, you are waiting way, way too late.