18 Mar Saturday Broadcast 40
✔️ ICYMI news, 3/13 – 3/17.
✔️”FDIC official warned 4 years ago that uninsured regional bank deposits were an ‘underappreciated risk.’ No one listened and we’re now paying the price.” This is a theme we hear over and again. Nomi Prins warned about this in her 2004 book.
✔️Back in January, I warned you about the historical precedent of the state taking bailout $ from Corpo America. (It also confiscated gold.)
✔️The mother ship is coming, apparently.
✔️”Central bank digital currency is inevitable.”
Links where I can be found: https://causeyconsultingllc.com/2023/01/30/updates-housekeeping/
Need more? Email me: https://causeyconsultingllc.com/contact-causey/
Transcription by Otter.ai. Please forgive any typos!
Welcome to the Causey Consulting Podcast. You can find us online anytime at CauseyConsultingLLC.com. And now, here’s your host, Sara Causey. Hello, Hello, and thanks for tuning in today it is Monday, March 13. Obviously the major news still yet banking failures. Over on CNBC we find S&P 500 rises in volatile session following us rescue of SVB deposits. Why regulators see Signature Bank in third biggest bank failure in US history? So in short order, we had the second biggest and then the third biggest bank failure in US history. If that doesn’t trouble you even in the slightest, I’m not sure what to tell you. Again, it’s easy to think well, crypto, volatile market, crazy things going on, would never happen to me. But I would be careful with that line of thinking. Something broke, but the Fed is still expected to go through with rate hikes, mortgage rates tumble in the wake of bank failures. Hmm. You know, I think for me, I don’t ever tell you what to do or not to do. But I think for me, I’m going to continue to sit it out on the sidelines, like Orlando miner said, sit it out with purpose, wait and see, look for deals wait for things to be the best possible scenario for you. Here in the Midwest, the area that I’m looking in, still, the inventory sucks. And what is available is grossly overpriced. So even if there’s a rate drop, I am just not particularly interested in what’s available. Nor am I interested in making a big real estate move in the middle of chaos. I would rather wait and see exactly what’s about to happen, because it feels like it very easily, very easily could usher in the C B, B C’s awful lot of FDIC and federal regulators stepping in to bail people out. That’s odd to me. Because the whole point was to eliminate bank bailouts. And to put that risk on the borrowers on the depositors. So I’m like something about this thinks something about this feels suspicious to me. So no, I don’t want to get wrapped up in taking out a new mortgage in the middle of this. Now that’s just me. I don’t tell you what to do. But that’s not something that I want would want to have going on at this point in time. Charles Schwab shares dropped 11% But rally off lows as firm defends financial position. Crypto just lost both of its main banks. First Republic drops 50% leads decline in bank stocks despite government’s backstop of SVB two year Treasury yield post biggest three day decline since the aftermath of the 1987 stock crash. Over on Yahoo Finance it’s a similar scene. First Republic stock plunges as regional banks feel pressure from SVB fallout. In the byline we read first republic bank shares tanked more than 70% and were halted for volatility leading regional lenders lower could all of this turmoil the chaos the tumble becoming to a bank near you? I hope not. I hope not. We’re still seeing this word contagion like, oh, it starts somewhere and then it spreads the ripple effect just goes through the whole country. So I hope not. But I don’t want to rely on hopium as a strategy. Stocks seesaw bank shares and bond yields sync on SVB Fallout regulator sees Signature Bank in third largest US bank failure and Wall Street split on the Feds next move after bank failures. And then here we go. There’s that word again, regional bank contagion on West Coast. I just feel like this is not the time to get any kind of normalcy bias. Over on fortune we find Silicon Valley Banks UK arm sold for a grand total of one pound. As the banks collapse reverberates globally. The byline reads it’s not just us officials scrambling to understand the repercussions of Silicon Valley Banks collapse. Signature Bank takeover could leave crypto companies scrambling for financial services. FDIC official warned four years ago that uninsured regional bank deposits were an under appreciated risk. No one listened and now we’re paying the price. No shit. You know I published a book On this episode this morning titled No one really wanted to listen. And Nomi Prins was talking in other people’s money about that very thing. People were trying to ring the alarm bells in the.com boom and bust and all the shenanigans that happen late 90s, early aughts, and no one really wanted to listen. In fact, she talks about people arguing, someone could get up there with data and say we are headed for a crisis. This is a shitstorm we need to pay attention and people would argue this is a theme we see over and over again, no one listened and now we’re paying the price. There will be people who go back and listen to these podcast episodes. I’m thinking like in time capsule form. They’ll go back two or three years down the road and be like, Wow, black gal was right. I guess that she’s not an economist. I guess she’s not a financial adviser. I guess that she’s not a political but she sure had some common sense. Yeah. Hello. The collapse of crypto banks signature and Silvergate could mean a liquidity crisis for stable coins. Yeah, after Silicon Valley Bank failure, there’s going to be more morons. Former FDIC chair William Isaac, Silicon Valley Bank sudden shut down sparks panic, but some saw red flags months ago. You don’t say, wow. Yeah. There’s a blog post I’ll publish this week. I’m still deciding on when I want to do that and compiling all of the evidence that I want to put forward but it talks about that FDIC SRJC meeting I’ve quoted from before, we’ve talked about Gary Cohn or Gary Cohn, I’m not sure how he pronounces it saying like the people who want to understand this will, the important people, the people that have lawyers and accountants, the people that want to understand this will understand it. There’s another speaker at that same conference who talks about information being divulged on a Friday, ideally a Friday night, don’t give anybody the opportunity to panic. Don’t give anybody the opportunity to start a bank run, just release information on a Friday night when you really can’t do anything about it, except sit there and take the weekend to cry in your coffee. The information is out there. It’s findable. The thing is the power brokers and the fat cats know that most people are not going to take the time and the opportunity to look, people are busy. They have jobs, they’re working for a living at this point, somebody might be over employed, they might be working two or three jobs or they might have a main job and two or three side hustles trying to make ends meet. There are plenty of people that legitimately don’t have much time. Then you have other people that are in bread and circus mode. One of the people in that exact meeting that FDIC SRA C meeting talks about we live in an age where people get their news from tweets and they kind of laugh about the impertinence and the impatience of people doing that. So there’s this attitude of the unwashed masses could take the time to understand it if they want it to, but they’re not going to so we put it out for public consumption. Now we try not to panic them, but we put it out for public consumption. And then I mean, if they don’t pay attention to the red flags, then you know, it’s kind of like their fault. be naïve at your own risk. Today, it is Tuesday, March 14, a crazy and strange day. Over on CNBC we have headlines such as meta to layoff 10,000 more workers after initial cuts in November, Apple reportedly delaying some employee bonuses as the company cuts costs. Tyson Foods to close to chicken plants, layoff 1700 workers, but hey, people are doing great. We still somehow have a 3.6% unemployment rate. That labor market is still red hot, why we couldn’t have a recession with the job market this hot. We have 1.9 open jobs for every one unemployed person. Now where the hell are they? I don’t know. These imaginary jobs exist somewhere. Apparently, people are doing great. Ignore all of the evidence and common sense that tells you otherwise people are doing great red hot labor market. Moody’s cuts outlook on US banking system to negative citing rapidly deteriorating operating environment. I’ll publish a blog post probably in the morning about that because let me tell you prediction alert warning. Warning warning. I would issue the same kind of outlook about the job market rapidly deteriorating operating environment. Yes. No, I don’t believe 3.6% unemployment rate and one 1.9 open jobs legitimate open jobs for every one unemployed person. No, hell no. No Net nine. No rapidly deteriorating operating environment. If you have not already roughed out a job loss survival plan, it might be too late. If you have not already roughed out an RTO survival plan, it might be too late. I hope I am wrong on that. I really sincerely do. I’m just giving you my opinion, which could be wrong. And in my opinion, if you have not already wargame out some strategies to help yourself, you might be too late. I’m sorry to say that, but it could be the case. Charles Schwab CEO says firm is seeing significant inflows and that he bought stock Tuesday. Well, good for him. As VBS new CEO urges clients to help us rebuild our deposit base. Who is going to show up and do that I wonder? Russian jet downs us Reaper drone over Black Sea. AMC plunges as investors approve reverse stock split. Morgan Stanley is testing an open AI powered chat bot for its 16,000 financial advisors. Open AI announces GPT four claims it can beat 90% of humans on the LSAT. I’m not really sure that’s anything super special to brag about, because I’ve always sort of had a negative opinion of standardized tests. It doesn’t surprise me that they would be designed for a robot mind. Anybody with a creative mind people that have some neurodiversity? I mean, I just sort of feel like those of us who operate on a different operating system and our brains those dumbass standardized tests are just not meant for us. That hurts your feelings. I’m sorry, but I’m just I’m giving you the world as I see it. Over on Yahoo Finance by way of fortune, we find Ken Griffin says SVB depositor should not have been bailed out. It would have been a great lesson in moral hazard. There was also a headline earlier where he was saying something about capitalism is breaking down and I thought well, crony capitalism. Yeah, this is not a free market and a free market. There’s no such thing as too big to fail. If enough people walk away from your item or your company, you don’t get to show up with your hat in your hand and ask for taxpayer money. In this, we find Ken Griffin, founder and CEO of Citadel isn’t a fan of the extraordinary measures taken by the US Federal Reserve to protect depositors at Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank on Sunday. There’s been a loss of financial discipline with the government bailing out depositors and fool Griffin said in an interview with The Financial Times on Monday, Griffin added that the measure was a betrayal of the US as capitalist economy, which he said was breaking down before our eyes. Hmm wonder why that would be. On Sunday, the US Federal Reserve said it would ensure that depositors at Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank the ladder which failed over the weekend were protected info even beyond the $250,000 normally covered under federal deposit insurance, the Fed said it would launch a new lending program as well where banks could pledge certain securities valued at par instead of market value as collateral. Instead, Griffin suggested that given the strength of the economy, the US government could have let SPBs depositors lose their money. It would have been a great lesson and moral hazard said Griffin predicting that losses would have been immaterial, it would have driven home the point that risk management is essential. He said in quote. I guess that depends on who’s less of it is, you know, I used to work with a guy named Bill who became a great friend. And I always remember his quote, a hard lesson is a good lesson. Yeah, that’s true. When you get burned by something, you’re not likely to forget it. But I think this just depends on whose lesson and moral hazard it is, and whose losses would be immaterial. If you’re counting on somebody from that bank to issue you your paycheck, it’s going to matter to you. I was reading something the other day about sellers on Etsy are concerned that they’re going to get paid, that their payments for the products they’ve sold will be dispersed or not. If you’re relying on that money to feed your kids, to keep clothes on your back to keep a roof over your head, it’s going to matter a hell of a lot to you. It’s easy for somebody else to sit there and wag a finger and say, well, it would have taught you a good lesson, wouldn’t it? Meanwhile, somebody that just goes into the bank makes a deposit. They don’t understand. They don’t know what they don’t know. They don’t know what they don’t know. They don’t realize that they are loaning that money to the bank and that the bank is going to do God only knows what with it. So it’s like what lesson and moral hazard is going to happen. We live in crony capitalism. We live in an era where these bankers and these fat cats will always look out for themselves. I go back yet again to my blog post of Gordon Gecko tried to tell y’all He sure did. He tried to tell you in 87, and he tried to tell you again in the sequel in about 2010. This is how the system works. Money isn’t made, it’s just transferred. It’s like it happens by magic, the value of something is whatever we say that it is, oh, I bought this painting for 60,000. But now it’s worth 600,000 As if by magic. So I’m sort of like skeptical that the FDIC not bailing these people out would do anything to show the fat cats and important lesson, they just figure out some other way to game the system. The other thing is why I think we have to take a look at why these bailouts are occurring. Because the whole idea of Dodd Frank and doing away with federal bank bailouts was that there would be bail ins, that the unsecured creditors, aka the depositors at the bank, aka me, and you would be the ones bailing these banks out if they failed. So it’s like, okay, if we were going to do away with federal bank bailouts, then why are we suddenly doing these very public, federal bank bailouts? The theories abound? Could this be a way to crash the economy? Could this be a way to completely obliterate banking as we know it right now? Could this be a way to usher in a great r e. S, E T? Could it be a way to bring in C, B, D, C’s to do away with cash money, and to just say, You know what, the system has become untenable. It’s unruly, it’s crazy. You’re not safe in it. You know, how people operate on fear. Look at the panic and the pandemonium around. You know, nobody can come at me any type of way. I felt like I was gonna freakin die. I started out with viral food poisoning, and then that spiraled into the plus strep throat, I became a long hauler, wound up with a heart arrhythmia. If that wasn’t bad enough, then on top of it to add insult to injury, I wound up with the toes. Look like one of my toes had leprosy. The joints swelled up. It was crazy. It was painful to walk and a chunk of my flesh came off that still hasn’t completely healed if I’m being honest with you. So nobody can say, Well, you never had the so you don’t understand. Yeah, the hell I do. I thought that I was dying. Man, that was some scary myths. So I’m not sitting here telling you that I don’t think exists or that I can’t understand why somebody would be afraid of it. What I’m talking about is more. So mass panic, and fomenting that mass panic on purpose. See, that seems to be the thing, panic when we tell you to panic, be afraid of what we tell you to be afraid of. Be calm when we tell you to be calm. Don’t worry about things that we tell you not to worry about. So if you feel like bank failures and a job market collapse, or a more imminent threat to you, then then maybe you’re not supposed to feel that way. Maybe you’re supposed to be more scared of the than you are of the job market collapsing of mass layoffs of high unemployment of a Great Depression 2.0. I don’t have the answers to these questions. But I definitely think we should all be pondering this point of why are we doing federal bank bailouts? What is this a precursor to what what road? Is this leading us down? Because the I don’t think that things happen on accident. I think if something is happening in politics, if it’s happening at a high governmental level, probably was maneuvered that way. If we go to the latest layoff roster on LinkedIn, we find the announcement about meta. The one about Tyson union and non union employees were reportedly affected by layoffs at I heart podcast. And then we go back into Lockheed Martin saying that it will let go of 176 employees and a heavy lift helicopter division. But yet 3.6% unemployment rate. Sure. Speaking of the RTO survival plan, I’m not going to be falsely modest. I am not doing it. I have told you so I’ve told you and told you and told you. While the talking heads were giving you hot air and hopium I was trying to spit the truth to you as I saw it. Now this article pops up food giant plans $5 million daycare. Spam maker Hormel is building a daycare center for its employees kids in an attempt to attract and retain and working parents. The company says it will start construction on its $5 million childcare center in Hormel Hormel is hometown of Austin, Minnesota. By late April, the facility will have room for 130 children according to Axios. In addition to some spots to non employee residence, the childcare crisis has kept 1000s of parents from working. And though employers are increasingly offering childcare as a benefit, it’s still difficult to find affordable care and quote, and of course, things that are promoted here on the LI are everyone’s co clapping about how great this is about how more companies should do it. Here’s the deal. They’re doing that because you’re going back. They’re not going to accept I have to to work from home to be able to take care of the kids. It’s going to be a little bring the kids here we’ve got this $5 million childcare facility, brand spanking new and ready to go because you’re coming back. I don’t think it’s anything to seal clap about. I’m sorry, I don’t like send me hate mail. If that’s what gets you off. Go ahead. I’ll just delete it. But it’s like, yeah, the system itself is broken. You know, I mean, man, I was thinking earlier about that Don Henley song The End of the Innocence because the video came on MTV Classic this morning, and I remember when it first came out in 89 I think it was my mom went nuts for that video. She would you play? Oh, look, it’s a ticker tape parade. Look, it’s the Sunday picnic after church. Look, it’s this, look it’s that. Oh, look he’s thumbing a ride and you could do that. I remember when you could hitchhike and you wouldn’t get murdered. She as a child of the 50s and 60s really flipped out over that video. And it was triggered some real emotional nostalgia for her. And I just as I was watching it again this morning, I thought you know, I think the the innocence ended a long time before the late 80s. I think we could make the argument that it ended, you know, quite some time back. There used to be appointed time, you know, I’m thinking much more so of my grandparents generation and not my parents generation. But for the grandparents. One person worked outside the home, the other person stayed home. Send me hate mail if you want to. I’m not trying to be a sexist, I’m just telling you how it used to be. Typically the man in the household worked outside the home. The woman was a stay at home wife. And then when the kids came along was a stay at home mother. You have told the story before of my grandpa’s older sister, lecturing my grandma and this would have been like, I don’t know, 49 50 51 Maybe somewhere in there when they first got married, about how she should be ironing my grandpa’s underwear that like in order to be a good stay at home wife and really take care of your husband, you should be ironing the underwear and my grandma was kind of up but nobody’s gonna see it. I would iron his drawers. It was a different world. But there just wasn’t this necessity of both individuals working outside the home just to make ends meet. So to me, this is systemic. Why the hell is childcare so difficult to find and so unaffordable to the point where you have to say the corporate masters will build a daycare so that your kids can sit in here while you do the same job here that you could have done at home anyway. Maybe it’s just me, maybe I’m the odd person out but I just find that dystopian and weird. Today it is Wednesday, March 15. Over on CNBC, a particular headline caught my attention. Michael Burry compares government’s bank rescue to JP Morgan’s stand that reverse the panic of 1907. It immediately gave me a flashback to an episode I recorded in the middle of January titled What is really going on here. And in that episode, I talked about for one thing, how we’ve had these boom, bust cycles over and over again. So even though you have people that seem to act like well, we just can’t believe this is happening again. We just can’t believe that we might have another Great Depression. We just can’t believe we might have another great recession. I mean, jeepers guys, how come this keeps happening? Well, they happen and they happen and they happen. But in that episode, I talk about JP Morgan, bailing out the US government. I’ll drop a link yet again to the article from history daily.org which is titled during the panic of 1893 JP Morgan used $60 million in bonds to bail out the United States government. Just simmer on this. I’ll also drop a link to an article that was on fortune.com earlier today about the people who won after the Silicon Valley Bank buyout slash bust Who do you think it was? Well, they call out Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase, and Citi Group. There is a historical precedent for not only the incestuous relationship that we see between Wall Street, the government, and corporate America, but having a robber baron fat cat bailout the government, this is not unheard of. And I understand that I don’t have the pedigree of somebody that’s an economist, somebody who has predicted all of these crises before and has been at a very high level within these finance firms, I get that. But I do feel like I’m gonna pat myself on the back for a moment and just say, I have been out here busting my butt, to connect these dots and to bring this information to you. These things are not without precedent. And I still think it’s entirely possible that this could be used to get rid of your local and regional banks, to eventually just say, we’re gonna have five or maybe 10, banking conglomerates that are too big to fail, you can feel safe. We’re also going to do the C, B, D C’s, so that currency moves much faster, we’re going to do away with paper money and coins and all that crap. It’ll just be digits on the screen. And it will be handled by these huge banking conglomerates because they’re bigger, they have more cybersecurity, they have more infrastructure, they’re too big to fail. It could even come down to if you want to do banking at some other institution, take your chances because we just won’t offer FDIC insurance for them. You can go stick your money in their vault if that’s what you think you want to do, but it’s probably not very safe. So many different possibilities exist here and in my opinion, none of them really seem to be very good. Over on Yahoo Finance, we find stocks plummet amid Credit Suisse turmoil, US stocks were sharply lower Wednesday as fresh turmoil at Credit Suisse resumed investor jitters over the banking sector. Credit Suisse plunges to record low as bank jitters spread, and see that’ll be part of the narrative too. People got jittery and made the market jittery. Everyone was operating on emotions and Good grief. You guys crashed this market. We’ve seen the same thing about recession, blaming it on everything from people asking for a raise at work to cope with inflation to remote work. Somehow it will be the fault of John and Jane Q Public. US regulator taps Piper Sandler in new bid to sell SVB think mourns higher rates exposed cracks in the financial system. Yeah, I kind of think that those financial cracks have been there for a while. Credit Suisse stock drops to new low worries spread throughout the banking sector. SVB collapse leads to big paydays for short sellers. Black Rocks Larry Fink warns of slow rolling crisis as Feds inflation fight drags on for years. BlackRock Inc, co founder and CEO Larry Fink warned his firm’s investors that the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rates hike. Were the first domino to fall. Lovely now, also speaking of Michael Burry, over on Yahoo Finance by way of MarketWatch. I’m not seeing true danger here. Michael Burry says US banking crisis to be resolved very quickly. Okay, I mean, I’m not saying that somebody got to him, but I’m kind of not not saying that either. I don’t know where his optimism is coming from. I mean, I hope it’s well founded. I guess I could say that net worth of median household is basically nothing says Carl Icahn. We have some major problems in our economy. Um, yeah, I would say so. You know, learning that the GDP is like 70% consumption. That’s scary. Like what do we produce? What do we make? What do we contribute? Instead, it’s just consumption and consumption and consumption. Over on the side panel for LinkedIn, we find concerns mount over Credit Suisse. Latest layoffs. Apple slows bonuses and hiring meta to layoff another 10,000 workers. Southwest aims for meltdown proof, we’ll see. Fed moles new banking rules. Well, let’s just go there first. The Federal Reserve is considering changing the rules and imposes on mid sized banks as a result of the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. According to The Wall Street Journal. Officials are looking into tougher capital and liquidity requirements for lenders with around 100 billion to 250 billion in assets. bringing them closer to targets for the biggest banks as well as revised annual stress tests. As VBS recent crisis has highlighted risks to the system and reignited debate about rebuilding restrictions for regional banks that were rolled back in 2018. The Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission have opened investigations into the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, the Wall Street Journal reports citing anonymous sources and quote, I mean, shrug shoulders and kind of looks thoughtfully in the microphone like Hello, I’m inclined to give some credence to the conspiracy theories that coming to a theater near you. We’re only going to have banks that are huge and considered to be too big to fail. Local and regional banks could go away. Or we could be told well, I mean, if you want to bank there, you’re totally on your own mean, good luck to you, we’re not going to insure them. Or they could just make it too difficult. Make it to the point where nobody even wants to have a local or regional bank anymore. It’s just not worth it. You know, I warn you about this in regards to work from home and RTO if it becomes too difficult and too litigious. To have some people remote, some people hybrid, some people on site, more companies will just simply say forget it. It’s not worth it to be remote. Let’s just come on back to the office and be but in seat yet again. Same thing here. If it becomes too difficult and too litigious, and not profitable to have a local or regional bank, those banks will go away. I hope that that’s not what happens. I hope that those theories are wrong, but I don’t know. I’d rather be prepared than suddenly surprised. I go back again, you know, I’m gonna be dropping an episode tomorrow. Things happen slowly until they happen fast. And by the time the snowball rolls down the hill and becomes a full tilt avalanche, you have waited too late. I’m so sorry. If that upsets you. I’m just trying to give you the truth as I see it. When we click on concerns mount over Credit Suisse, we find Credit Suisse shares fell more than 20%. Wednesday after its top shareholder Saudi national bank told Bloomberg that it would not invest further in the bank. In the wake of Silicon Valley Banks collapse. The scandal ridden Swiss banks latest guidance Tuesday didn’t inspire confidence among investors and customers. Its 2022 annual report identified material weaknesses in internal controls of its financial reporting. The report had been delayed following concerns expressed by the Securities and Exchange Commission over its previous financial statements. Credit Suisse recently reported its biggest loss dating back to the 2008 financial crisis. Yet another flashback to oh eight, its executive board will not receive a bonus for the first time in more than 15 years. CEO Oelrich Kirner nonetheless, maintains the bank’s complex restructuring efforts will help put it back on the road to profitability in quote. Okay, so we get another flashback 208. We’re also seeing that there were signs of trouble that we’re only just now allowed to know about out in the public, which makes me wonder how many other issues how many other banks are in trouble that we don’t yet know about? Just long pause there. So you can think about that. In the blog post that I published earlier today about danger, in the same way that the outlook for banking stability is not so good. I would say the outlook for the job market is likewise not so good right now. And I hope to God that you’ve prepared for that. There was a tweet that went out from a politician talking about being on a Zoom meeting. And someone else a senator, I think asked if there was any way that social media could engage in censorship to damp down any possibilities of bank runs and financial panic amongst the public. See, that’s what they want. You panic when you’re supposed to panic and you remain calm and you’re supposed to remain calm. If they feel like it’s okay for you to act like Lord of the Flies over toilet paper and hand sanitizer, then that’s fine. But if they don’t want you to go pull your money out of the bank, or to at least try to make some kind of provision about knowing how you would survive if your bank was insolvent. If you went to bed on Monday evening, and things were fine, you woke up on Tuesday morning and it had all gone to hell. At least you have some idea of what you might do. You’re not supposed to think about any of that until they tell you to think about it. The blog post that I wrote about the FDIC saying it is going to happen on a Friday night. Ideally on a Friday night is when you tell people so they can’t do anything to help themselves. They’ll just have to sit and cry in their coffee over the weekend. That blog post has been suppressed. I don’t think that that’s a coincidence. I don’t I just I hope that you’re paying attention. I really, really do. When we go to the latest layoff roster, Krispy Kreme is closing its factory in Concord, North Carolina and letting go of more than 100 workers. The facility made Krispy Kreme snack aisle products a business that the company is exiting. Have another statement about meta about Tyson. Y Combinator, a startup accelerator, an early stage investment firm has let go of 17 employees associated with a short lived foray into late stage investing. Shopping Rewards App fetch is cutting 10% of its workforce are about 100 people. LinkedIn members are posting about layoffs at online warehouse club boxed, Camping World will shutter active sports and the house a longtime outdoor retailer in Minnesota and its associated e commerce site resulting in the loss of at least 90 retail and warehouse jobs. Wow. But yet 3.6% unemployment rate 1.9 legit open jobs for every one unemployed person and people are doing great. Sure. Today it is Thursday, March 16. Before I get into the headlines of the day, a couple of side notes. Over on the New York Post published yesterday. Not kidding. Pentagon officials suggest alien mothership in our solar system could send many probes to Earth. Pentagon officials said in a draft document last week that aliens could be visiting our solar system and releasing smaller probes, like missions conducted by NASA when studying other planets. A draft research report authored by Sean Kirkpatrick, the director of the Pentagon’s all domain anomaly resolution office, and Abraham Loeb chairman of Harvard University’s astronomy department, was released on March 7, and focuses on the physical constraints of unidentified aerial phenomena. An artificial interstellar object could potentially be a parent craft, that releases many small probes during its close passage to Earth and operational construct not too dissimilar from NASA missions. The report read, these dandelion seeds could be separated from the parent craft by the title gravitational force of the sun, or by eight maneuvering capability. The AARO was established in July 2022, and is responsible for tracking objects in the sky underwater and in space, or possibly an object that has the ability to move from one domain to the next. And just add that to your file of what the hell is going on. What next, you know, what insanity should we be prepared for next? Oh, speaking of which, I received one of those slide aisles this morning from somebody, I guess I must still be on their list. And this is heavily redacted because I don’t want to expose the person who did this. I’m not trying to be smart to them in any way. For me, it’s really about what this just another like the mothership is coming. And they’re sending little tentacles of probes down to the earth like that’s another what kind of moment like don’t pay attention to the fact that the banking system is hanging on by a thread. Don’t pay attention that we could be in another great recession or Great Depression to point out, don’t pay attention to that. Just be aware that there might be aliens coming to earth. Because in this slide dial that the person left for me, they say the real estate market is heating up. And I sat there listening to that, like What planet are you on? Have you come from the mothership that’s left tentacles down here on this planet? Because what you know we love having lots of fun and connecting with you and this spring is no different. That’s right, the real estate market is warming up just like the weather outside. Yeah, that market it’s, it’s really heating up. Hmm. Can you imagine a realtor doing or saying anything like that back in 2021 when it was a seller’s market, and there was all of that FOMO and YOLO. And if you don’t show up and do exactly what you’re told, then you can just beat it. Can you imagine? Yeah, oops eaten up. I’m sure it is. From the Motley Fool Today we find Suze Orman warns of a financial tsunami. Here’s why. The byline reads that’s a pretty answer. settling thought TLDR key points. Although the economy and labor market might seem strong, Orman thinks things could take a turn for the worse. High borrowing costs and living expenses could push people to a point where they can’t afford their lifestyles. A lack of emergency savings could turn a near term layoff into a catastrophic event in quote, yeah. And I hope that you have planned ahead. I know that we can’t see around every dark corner, I know that we can’t overcome every curveball that life throws at us. But I hope that you have prepared to the best of your ability. I don’t give you advice, and I don’t tell you what to do. If it were me, I would hopefully be living beneath my means. And I would have some kind of a game plan. If I was a full time w two employee, do I have an RTO survival plan? If I’ve been working hybrid or working remotely? Am I fully prepared to be on site Monday through Friday? Do I know what I would do in terms of child care, pet care, elder care, anything like that that was relevant in my life? Do I know what I would do in the event of a layoff? Or if the company I worked for completely closed down? Do I have some kind of game plan roughed out ahead of time? Over on Reuters We find us banking system sound but not all deposits are guaranteed. Yellen says the US banking system remain sound and Americans can feel confident that their deposits are safe Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Thursday, but she denied that emergency actions after two large bank failures mean that a blanket government guarantee now exists for all deposits and quote, yeah, I mean, you can feel confident. I mean, you could like if you chose to feel confident, if you chose to assume that everything was gonna magically be alright. I mean, like totally could do that if you wanted to. on CNBC we find Dow rises 300 points with banks and talks to bolster first republic deposits. A group of banks will deposit $30 billion in first republic to stabilize the regional bank. Google raises price of YouTube TV to $73 a month blaming content costs. That feels like a lot of money for YouTube TV. bank shares rebound off lows as big banks consider coming to the aid of first republic, Silicon Valley Bank ex CEO backed big tech lobbying group that targeted Dodd Frank. Wow, really? What a coincidence. I just can’t imagine that. Wow. French President Macron overrides parliament to pass retirement age bill. I would also say like could that be coming to a theater near you could government’s just say if you want to get your government provided benefits you’re gonna have to wait extra years because recession because banks failing because economic crisis. That’s something else that I would say I hope you are prepared for just in case it happens to you. Not saying it will happen to you. But just in case. European Central Bank hikes rate despite market mayhem pledges support if needed. This really really feels like a giant mess to me, like we’re careening into a hornet’s nest. I don’t know how bad the Hornet’s Nest is going to be or how long lasting but I’m worried. Just to be honest with you. Today it is Friday, March 17. Happy St. Patrick’s Day, I hope that you are celebrating in a way that is safe and sound. And not facedown somewhere after having imbibed a little too much green beer. I know that is a temptation. In times such as these. Over on CNBC we find Dow drops nearly 400 points as first republics slide rattles Wall Street, Wall Street rescue 11 banks pledged first republic $30 billion in deposits, Google nixes paying out remainder of maternity and medical leave for laid off employees. General Motors China Business is hurting and not just because of COVID Credit Suisse sheds another 9% as traders digest emergency liquidity UK backs Rolls Royce project to build a nuclear reactor on the moon. Because in the middle of all of this stuff happening, you know, here on Earth, that sounds like a really great priority. Also on CNBC, 90% of homeowners didn’t realize how expensive it would be. You know, I always say I don’t tell you what to do. I’m not an economist. I’m not a realtor. Just as someone who’s been a homeowner for years and years now If you don’t feel that you’re adequately prepared for the expense of owning a home, that’s maybe not something that you want to take lightly. I’m just kind of shrugging my shoulders here. Like, I mean, hey, I’m not saying you will not sing and you have to be happy that you should just rent forever. What I am saying is that, in my opinion, it’s better to be prepared, it’s better to have some idea of what you’re up against. What if the house needs a new roof? What if the water heater fails? What if your HVAC system goes out? I had the lovely experience of having to over a barrel tried to replace the HVAC system, because it died in the middle of summer when it was like 120 degrees outside it felt like Death Valley. And we were in here about to roast to death. These things happen. And there’s no landlord that you can call and say make this right. Or else it’s on you. If you’re not prepared for those kinds of things, and worse yet, if you have overpaid for a poopoo house, that’s going to give you one problem after another after another. Is that the position that you want to be in. So even though we have Realtors calling and saying the market is hot, it’s eaten up? I mean, I don’t know about that. I’m not convinced that that’s the case. Because typically, if a market is hot, people are not having to do sly dials and beg for business. Hashtag just saying. We also find 41% of adults are preparing for a recession, it’s time to stress test your income advisors say? Well, yes, I agree with the second part of that. Honestly, I would say if you haven’t already stress tested your finances. In my opinion, you’re probably behind the eight ball on that. I know Debbie Downer. You’re not supposed to say that. I’m supposed to get on here and tell you everything’s gonna be okay. And there’s still time. Maybe there is I don’t know. I don’t know. Again, I’m just giving you my opinion. If you haven’t already stress tested your income, it might be too late. But as the saying goes, the best time to plant a tree is 20 years ago, the second best time is today. Maybe you take the time over the weekend to get your mind right about that. If you haven’t already. The scary part of that is 41% of adults. Only that not even a majority of adults would say they’re preparing for a recession. That is crazy. To me, that number needs to be 100% of adults. Now I know you’ll you’ll never get there because you’re gonna have some people that they’re too busy worrying about celebrity gossip and silly nonsense, or they’re listening to the hot air and hopium crowd, they want somebody to tell them everything’s going to be okay. Big Daddy government or Big Daddy Wall Street, Big Daddy, corporate America is going to come and clean this mess up and everything’s going to be okay. So you don’t need to worry about it. Some people want to believe that so badly, that they will listen to that information and say, I don’t need to stress test my finances. I don’t need to plan ahead. I don’t need to put some extra items on the shelf in the pantry just in case. Everything’s going to be okay. Because see, the news told me that I have a friend who was really struggling with some social media addiction at this point in time. And I told him like, well, the only person who can do a digital detox for you is you. Nobody else can show up and do that for you. I know that there are therapists and counselors who actually you know, the digital modern age specialize in that they specialize in helping people do a digital detox, sort of reclaim real life out of the metaverse or wherever it is they’re hanging out on. But it’s like you’ll talk about I know that it’s making me depressed. And I know that it’s also fomenting anxiety. I know that watching six hours of Tik Tok in a day is not good for me, but it’s like I can’t stop. And he will simultaneously condemn social media and then praise it in the same breath. And I’m like, um, well, gestures broadly, I sort of feel like that’s a big problem. In modern times, people who can’t step back from meaningless BS on the internet, and I’m not saying everything on the internet is meaningless BS. You know, I was reading earlier about when FDR put the kibosh on gold. And I’m like, you don’t want some of these people. I am definitely going to get hate mail for this. But I don’t care. I told you 2023 is going to be the year of honesty, raw authenticity, I’m taking the gloves off. Play time is over. I’m not sugarcoating anything for anybody. So I sort of feel like the people who have a vested interest in you Investing in Precious Metals. I mean, what are they gonna do if the government just says that’s illegal? We’re dunzo no more. Whatever you have over a certain limit is getting confiscated or it’s your ass But then, because see that has happened before? Are they gonna hide it all in a bunker? I mean, I don’t know what they’re planning to do with it. And again, I don’t tell you what to do, I’m not going to tell you that you should or should not invest in precious metals, because I don’t know enough about it to speak any kind of word, not a financial advisor, that is not my bag. And as much as I like Lynette Zeng, you know, she does run a company that deals in gold. So I’m sort of like, okay, but what happens if we’re back in, in an FDR situation, where the government just says, we’re out of money, we need you to step up and turn in your precious metals, then what? I mean, people are going to comply. I don’t see any way around that. So I’m just sort of like, Hmm, I don’t really know that for me personally sinking a bunch of money into precious metals is the best strategy at this point in time, not saying isn’t just kind of like, what are we going to do? If the government comes in and says, We want your precious metals or you go to the Gulag, and that’s that. I know, oh, that would just never happen in America. It was never Oh, sure. Of course it wouldn’t. So there are things that you can read on the internet that have merit. You can read about history, you can read about philosophy, you can read literature, not everything on the internet is just a complete waste of time. In my friend’s situation, if he knows that it’s fomenting anxiety, and panic and depression in his life, yet he’s still refusing to seek treatment and do anything about it. I feel like that’s scary. And I feel so lucky that I got to grow up and come of age at a point in time when that crap wasn’t around. You know, like I’ve talked about before, you carried some change with you for the payphone. And you went to the bowling alley, or the roller rink or you snuck over to a friend’s house and you just had that freedom. And you have that privacy without your parents knowing every flipping thing that you were doing all the time. And you also weren’t reporting it as a play by play on social media to incriminate yourself later. I’m glad that I’m glad that I didn’t have to deal with that. When we go and check the latest layoff roster, now they have jumbled these up over on LinkedIn, so I’m going to try to avoid any repeats. Layoffs continue to make their way through Boston based software companies with Clavijo. Cutting 140 rolls about 10% of the company According to TechCrunch and app queues losing 15% of its staff. Course Hero a unicorn status ed tech company conducted its first round of layoffs in 17 years letting go of 42 employees or 15% of the company According to TechCrunch cannabis company Leafly has cut 40 employees or roughly 21% of its total staffers. turmoil in the cryptocurrency sector continues to claim jobs with anchorage digital the US is first federally chartered crypto bank, laying off 75 people or 20% of its staff. There have also been reports of quiet layoffs at the crypto firm copper Fintech startup Kaleidoscope is reducing its workforce by 30%. devise solutions America is a US subsidiary of Samsung that makes semiconductor chips has laid off about 3% of its employees. Avid bots, which makes cleaning robots is letting go of 50 employees or 14% of its global workforce. Neo Lukin therapeutics let go of 70% of its employees, as it explores potential next steps as a company. Camping World will shutter longtime Minnesota retailer active sports the house, resulting in a loss of at least 90 retail and warehouse jobs. But wait a minute, I thought retail was safe. I thought retail still had all these open jobs and the great resignation was still going strong there. Well, not in a recession. Who’s got money to spend? That’s the thing. When it’s food on the table and keeping the light bill paid or going to buy camping equipment or other things that would be considered a non necessity item. What are people going to do? You know, I kind of like eating like having electricity, who I have in the house cool and tolerable in the summer and warm and tolerable in the winter. I just I feel like we’re at a point where we need to be prepared for any scenario. I know that’s probably not particularly helpful. But there’s so many different things that could happen. On that note before I sign off for those of you that are still trapped in law, law land somewhere, I will be talking I’m going to release a bonus episode on Monday about people in the media that just promote whatever they’re told to promote. Whatever their corporate puppet masters tell them to say is what they say. And so even though they are telling you there’s nothing to see hear people move along, move along. Everything’s fine. This is just a bump in the road, but it’s no big deal. If you listen to anything about the C, B, B, C’s That’s crazy. That’s conspiracy theory talk. Okay, well, Mike and I draw your attention to an article that was released on the web. I will drop a link, go there. Look at this for yourself. I am not making it up. This article came out on March 15. So two days ago, as digital currencies become more popular, could we be seeing the end of cash and their TLDR key points we find Sweden, Brazil and China are among a handful of countries seeing an increasingly cashless society with the digitalization of money. analysis suggests a general correlation between high interest rates and less cash in circulation. Central Bank digital currency is inevitable, with 90% of central banks developing one and the percentage of countries developing or piloting a seat be DC, having doubled in one year. And this was written by Marian Laborde director slash micro strategist thematic research at Deutsche Bank. I’m going to scroll down because there’s kind of a weird intro talking about the song Money money money by Abba. Sort of like okay, well, moving right along. Under the heading will higher interest rates lead to the end of cash we find high interest rates as we are seeing today incentivize consumers to deposit and save money. At Deutsche Bank, we analyze the history of interest rate hiking cycles in the United States and the United Kingdom between 1960 and 1983. Finding a strong negative association between the level of central bank interest rates and cash in circulation. Proving a causal relationship between cash in circulation and interest rates still requires more work. Still, historically, high central bank interest rates certainly play a role in decreasing the amount of cash in circulation. In turn, a decline in cash is already starting to occur in some economies. For example, currency in circulation fell from 10.4% of the GDP in the US in 2021 to 8.6% in 2022. For the Euro zone, it fell from 10.1% of GDP in 2021 to 9.8% in 2022. It is likely that inflation will remain sticky, and that interest rates will remain elevated over the next year as central bank’s attempt to bring inflation back to target. Therefore, high interest rates will likely contribute to a significant reduction in the amount of cash in circulation in the future and will likely feel the transition to digital payments. In fact, central banks are already developing alternatives to physical cash towards a cashless society. The question is no longer if digital cash will arrive, but when and how. Today 90% of central banks are developing a central bank digital currency and 62% are experimenting at the proof of concept stage. The share of countries developing a CB DC or running a pilot doubled from 14% to 26% between 2020 and 2021. Interestingly, 76% of nations working on a retail cbdc are exploring interoperability with existing payment systems. This move would encourage the coexistence of Central and commercial bank money and speed up the widespread adoption of CBD C’s Is it the end of cash. Despite the trend towards a cashless society and the CBDCs progression, the end of cash is still far in sight, and will still be used as a store of value and a means of payment for some time. Hmm. Let’s see. Cash is also still popular among consumers. According to our Deutsche Bank proprietary survey of 3600 individuals across the UK, the United States, China, Germany, France and Italy in December of 2022 21% of Americans and 28% of Europeans ranked cash as their favorite payment method. Moreover, over half of those living in developed countries believe that cash will always be around a consistent viewpoint before and after the COVID 19 pandemic, in indicating cash for now will be around for some time in quote. Yeah, I don’t know about that. I’m hearing whispers on the wind. I can’t prove this. I haven’t been able to verify any independent data. So for now, I will just tell you, it’s a rumor. It’s a whisper on the wind. But I am hearing whispers on the wind that people are getting panicky about the small scale banks and they’re thinking, well, if we’re about to go through too big to fail, banks are going to need bailouts. I don’t want to be on the hook for Billy Bob’s bank in the middle of nowhere. I don’t want to just get left out and have my money taken from me. And then they’re taking that money out of the smaller banks and moving it into the larger big box. some immediate name recognition banks. Again, I don’t know if that’s true. It’s just a rumor that I’ve heard what I do think in reading this article that is on the web website written by a person at Deutsche Bank. Yeah, are CBDCs inevitable? Probably. So I think yet again to jet Hills speech in the movie malice, this is the here and the now. Welcome to the land of you don’t have a choice. So even though we’re using some kind of flowery language here, hey, cash is still popular among consumers. People believe that cash will always be around for now. Everything’s okay. Cash is still part of the landscape for the time being still far insight is it? All it’s gonna take is one big hairy mess. That’s about the same, if not worse, than what we experienced in Oh, 809. Or if we really want to get super bad, what happened in the 30s, we have a Great Depression 2.0. That’s all it’s gonna take. That’s all it’s gonna take. People are not just gonna go, oh, well, we’re self reliant. That’s the thing. You have told the story before about Professor cows, grandpa, and his hired hand, who left for a year, could not find work anywhere, and said, I will live in the barn. If you will feed me and buy me a new pair of blue jeans, I will stay here and work for you otherwise free of charge. Until we get through the Depression. In a situation like that people are not as self reliant as they were back in the 30s. You know, have people in rural areas being able to grow their own food and do the canning and the preserving and the sewing and the knitting. I mean, we just don’t live in that world anymore. Hang on just a minute, I have a needy dog sit down for a minute, but let me finish what I’m doing. People are people are not self sufficient like that anymore. They’re just not they don’t have that kind of grit and know how and basic domesticity. They don’t if that hurts your feelings. I’m sorry. We’re just living in a different era. You know, we’re almost 100 years out from that period of time. And I think a great depression 2.0 in the modern age would look a lot different. And I think people would just clamor for whatever the solution was. Okay, if we have to turn in cash and I’ll go to digital currency and that solves the problem. We’ll do it. Okay, if we need to all RTO and there’s no more work from home if you’re a W two employee for someone else. Okay. We’ll do it. If we need to flock to a 15 minute city. Okay, we’ll do it. I mean, it I think it all depends on how bad this downturn gets. Is this dress rehearsal for another downturn? That will be worse? I don’t know. Is this the big kaboom? I don’t know. As I said earlier, I think we just have to be prepared for any contingency, any possibility. Keep your head on a swivel. Stay alert. Stay aware. This is like my friend. Okay. This is really not the time in my opinion to watch silly videos on Tik Tok. If you want to do a little bit of bread and circus to blow off steam Be my guest. But you better stay aware of financial regulations. The post that I wrote the blog post that I wrote about the FDIC flat out saying it will happen on a Friday night. That post got suppressed. I’m going to drop a link to it and the write up for this episode. If you haven’t read that information. If you don’t know what I’m talking about when I say it will happen on a Friday night when you can do eff all to help yourself. Please go read that post and then share it with a friend. Be prepared for come what may. Stay safe, stay sane, and I will see you in the next episode. Thanks for tuning in. If you enjoyed this episode, please take a quick second to subscribe to this podcast and share it with your friends. We’ll see you next time.