We’re now waist deep in bull 💩

25 Jan We’re now waist deep in bull 💩

–https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dont-settle-workers-market-newest-110000824.html

–https://www.marketwatch.com/story/it-is-an-employers-market-tech-layoffs-may-have-turned-the-great-resignation-into-the-great-recommitment-11674511211

I see. So on January 15th, you were expected to believe it was high time to march in the boss’ office and demand a raise because: workers’ market. Then on January 23rd, you were told to walk that back because it’s an employers’ market.

YOU. CAN’T. MAKE. THIS. 💩. UP.

This is merely one of the reasons why I constantly say: IMO, if you wait to be “officially” told something, you are waiting too late.

The media can’t even agree on which narrative to push, for Chrissakes.

A few thoughts in freeform:

+ No. The Great Resignation is NOT still going strong for most white collar workers. I’ve told you this for months now. I can’t pinpoint an exact date, but I think somewhere in Q2 of last year, a lot of white collar knowledge workers said, “I think Imma stay put and cool down on hopping for a little while.”

+ No. It is not crazy-easy to go find another job right now that pays a living wage. Employers are also not moving quickly either. (This is true for contracts, gigs, and freelance work as well.)

“‘It’s a worker’s market,’ says Andrew Flowers, labor economist at job advertisement firm Appcast. ‘And this bargaining power, it means that, with high inflation, this is the time to either ask for a raise or to potentially find a better offer elsewhere.'” –https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dont-settle-workers-market-newest-110000824.html

WTF, dude. I’m not seeing this playing out in real-time in the job market. I don’t know where this data is coming from. I’m certainly not seeing it and I daresay the people posting on social media about being unemployed for months are not seeing it either.

“‘Employers know that quit rates are high. They know that job openings are plentiful. And so they know their employees can be choosier,’ Flowers says.” – Yahoo Finance, Ibid.

Again: WHAT?!?! This on the heels of “gentlemen’s layoffs” and quiet firing? Lordy. As Scrooge says, “I’ll retire to Bedlam.” Good grief.

+ For some reason, January 23rd was the day the peons were finally allowed to know, “Ruh-roh. Uh, um, that job market maybe ain’t so great anymore.” I’ll be talking about this on Thursday’s podcast episode, but suffice it to say: I hope you have not been buying into hot air and hopium all this time.

“The flood of Big tech layoffs has again upended the dynamic between employers and employees, workers and executives say, leading to prolonged job searches and widespread fear and anxiety among many in the industry.

‘It is an employer’s market after years of employees having the benefit of working from home [and] more jobs with higher pay and perks,’ said Angela Bateman, who is looking for work after being let go by educational-tech company Osmo in November. ‘Employers are reasserting their dominance — Disney, Google, Meta, Apple, and Snap [are] asking workers to be on site three or four days a week.’

On Friday, Alphabet Inc.’s Google was the latest tech giant to add to the uncertainty, announcing the elimination of 12,000 jobs just two days after Microsoft Corp. announced it was cutting 10,000 positions. The two join a long list of companies that have announced layoffs in recent months, including Salesforce Inc., Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc., Amazon.com Inc., Cisco Systems Inc., Intel Corp., HP Inc., Coinbase Global Inc., Spotify Technology Inc., and Snap Inc.

As laid-off workers struggle to land new jobs, many executives believe that could make people more willing to stick with their current companies. Former Cisco Chief Executive John Chambers sees it this way: The Great Resignation, in which tech workers jumped from one high-paying job to another, has turned into the Great Recommitment.

‘A career used to be two years at a company. That was the case for more than a decade,’ Chambers, who is now a venture capitalist, told MarketWatch. ‘Now, the last hired is the first fired. There has been a shift to employees re-evaluating their commitment to companies, with an emphasis on culture. There is dramatically lower turnover.'” –https://www.marketwatch.com/story/it-is-an-employers-market-tech-layoffs-may-have-turned-the-great-resignation-into-the-great-recommitment-11674511211  emphasis mine

The person out in the trenches looking for a job is telling you the truth, mon ami. Employers ARE reasserting their dominance and I have predicted this since last April. I knew the pendulum would swing even as others were assuring you that the FOMO and the YOLO in the job market would go on and on ad infinitum. Ya know, just like in the also artificially manipulated housing market. 😒

You’ve been vocal in saying you think the US is already in a recession. How does that impact the job market?

I always say: I am not an economist. But I have been involved in the job market every day for over a decade and I’ve weathered the ups and downs of more than one boom/bust cycle in more than one industry. You can start to see certain patterns that are always present. I believe the US went into a recession in 2022 – if not earlier – and the “technical definition” was changed in order to paper over reality. This idea that we’re waiting for a recession to happen sometime soon is nonsense to me. What we tend to see in a recession is this: as companies have less money, they look for ways to cut costs.

The investors and shareholders still expect a profit, so it’s usually the employees who bear the brunt of a bad economy. Some companies follow a tenure protocol, i.e., last one hired, first one fired. Others will use the first and second round of layoffs to purge the dissidents, i.e., people who aren’t well-liked by management or who speak their minds rather than “going along to get along.” I don’t agree with these practices, to be clear. I’m trying to warn people so they understand how Corporate America truly operates. To sum it up: as the economy goes down, unemployment goes up. It becomes harder to find a job if you need one and the competition for what’s available becomes intense.
-my interview with Featured Magazine, 1/1/23 https://featured-magazine.com/will-you-survive-a-job-market-crash/

“‘There is anxiety in competing with Big Tech folks, because I think that their profile is a ‘safe’ bet for scared companies, who may be less willing to take chances on people not coming from established brands,’ said Alex Gammelgard, a San Francisco-based marketing executive who previously worked at TrustedHealth. In her months-long search for a job, Gammelgard told MarketWatch, she has ‘found that pretty much everything shut down’ since Thanksgiving.

‘I am seeing on LinkedIn that a role will have 100 to 500 applicants within a week, which is way more than normal, so that shows the impact the Big Tech layoffs are having,’ she said.” -MarketWatch, Ibid. (emphasis mine)

Again, a job seeker is telling you the truth. Those of us who are in the job market every single day understand what it’s like in real-time. Some talking head in the media or some “expert” who may be paid a fee to push a particular agenda does not.

“But not all job seekers are having success. The outlook is ‘pretty barren,’ said Erickson, who has put off knee surgery because he lacks full-coverage health insurance. ‘I just applied to Microsoft,’ he said, ‘but I doubt that works out, with 10,000 layoffs.'” -MarketWatch, Ibid.

Please do not be caught off-guard by this. A few more thoughts in freeform:

+ This will NOT stay isolated to Big Tech.

+ Yes, Lord Elon kicked the door open for this (as did Zuck) but this behavior will not be relegated to oligarchs, billionaires, and tech lords. It will manifest in small and medium companies, too.

+ We have been in a recession for a while now, IMO. Just because the “technical” definition was changed doesn’t mean squat.

+ Is inflation really abating? Do you see prices getting cheaper when you need to buy food or clothing? I sure don’t.

+ If you rage quit a job or get caught in a sudden layoff, you very well may not find something else quickly. The power brokers know this. They are not naïve.

+ One more time before I go: if you wait to be “officially” told something, you are waiting too late.