21 Jan Saturday Broadcast 32
✔️ ICYMI news, 1/16 – 1/20.
✔️ Davos, debt ceilings, and a big ole mess.
✔️Is the job market going to “normalize” or any other soft-sounding word? I wouldn’t personally count on that.
✔️Jaime Dimon is perpetually on one at this point. 😣
✔️So in the midst of more layoffs, you are still asked to believe the unemployment rate is 3.5%. What?!?
Links I discuss:
Reminder – you can always find my blog posts here: https://causeyconsultingllc.com/the-blog/
Need more? Email me: https://causeyconsultingllc.com/contact-causey/
Transcription by Otter.ai. Please forgive any typos!
Welcome to the Causey Consulting Podcast. You can find us online anytime at CauseyConsultingLLC.com. And now, here’s your host, Sara Causey. Hello, Hello, and thanks for tuning in. Today it is Monday, January 16. I guess today is the kickoff of the WEF meeting at Davos, Russell Brand has been doing a great job of profiling the meeting, talking to various commentators. And I’m sure that the fraction of information will be allowed to know truly pales in comparison to whatever we’re not allowed to know. Over on CNBC, there was an article today, the richest 1% amassed almost two thirds of new wealth created in the last two years. Oxfam says, I’ll be publishing a blog post about that tomorrow. It’s not just that the rich are getting richer. It’s that the super, ultra insane no wealthy people, people whose money has money has money has money, are continuing to hoard this wealth. The idea that somehow it trickles down. If we keep lining the pockets of these billionaires, it will be okay. It will be like the rising tide that lifts all boats, we will be able to live off of the crumbs that fall from their table. I think we know now, that’s a complete and utter load of BS. I mean, going all the way back to 1980. When Poppy Bush referred to it as voodoo economics, this idea of supply side Reaganomics or trickle down economics, it was really not going to work. Then all of a sudden when he was tapped to be the Veep. Oh, oops, I was just kidding about that. And they know that’s the thing they know. They will peddle this insanity to the masses. And I would say at this point, what I find the most disturbing, it’s not that the power brokers and the fat cats are doing what they’re doing. Because they’ve been up to these tricks and chicanery for quite some time. Now. It’s nothing new. I guess what I find to be the most disheartening are the number of people that just seem to not care. As long as they have their bread and circus. They have their Netflix and their PlayStation and they’re thinking about what’s going on with Britney Spears or Harry and Megan or Kim and Kanye, then who really cares about the economy? Who cares about what’s going on at Davos? We’ll just continue on and why should we even think about that? That’s boring. You might not think it’s so boring when you have to deal with the ramifications of it. Over on Yahoo Finance, we find Davos PwC survey finds bleak CEO outlook for 2023. CEOs aren’t feeling too hopeful on the year ahead, according to a newly released survey. Yeah, no, Sherlock. I think what I’m going to do, I’m still continuing to gather more and more information of how this completely relates to 2008. For all the commentators and talking heads and morons, in my opinion, who want to tell you that this is not 2008, we will just move or blah, blah, blah, for all of that the evidence is mounting. But I think what I would like to do is create an episode around what is actually happening here. You have Jamie Dimon saying privately to investors last year that we could be in for an absolute nightmare, an economic hurricane, if you will. And then now he’s walking that back. You have these cutesy weird terms like slow session, soft landing, mild recession. What’s really going on here? I mean, seriously, when you look at the number of boom, bust cycles, inflation, recession cycles, that have happened in this country as long as well as bank failures and bank runs. So that’s a little interesting tidbit to ponder this whole idea of corporate America showing up with their hat in their hands saying we want taxpayer money. Well, is that the only money that they’re getting? I mean, seriously, maybe, maybe not. I want to talk about that some more. And I also want to talk about the time when that situation was reversed. In other words, the government showed up with their hat in their hand to corporate America that happened in the 1800s. Oh, you don’t take my word for it. And I’ll talk about this in the episode. Go to DuckDuckGo or Google whatever platform you want to use. Bing, does anybody still out there using Bing? Go to your platform of choice and just put in Grover Cleveland and JP Morgan, and it will come up, where the government asked corpo America for a bailout. Somebody needs to be talking about this. And I guess it’ll just have to be me. Also on Yahoo Finance we find while Bed Bath and Beyond stock moves expose a bigger problem, well, yeah, you’ve got people doing meme stocks and hyping the market up. But this is something else that happens. The fat cats do this. I think a really interesting portrayal of it is made in Casino Royale. When Le Chiffre is betting on a stock one way because he knows the event that’s going to happen that’s going to cause the stock to plummet. Well, then James Bond interferes with the villains plan, and it doesn’t go the way he wants it to. So he loses millions upon millions of dollars. In reality, typically, that’s not what happens to the fat cats. But you have to bear in mind that Ian Fleming was part of the Secret Service. I mean, he he was a British spy. So some of the stories and characters that he created in the James Bond novels are not entirely fictitious. So these things do happen. But I think more often than not, the fat cats are able to prevail in their plans. Again, there’s really no telling what all they’re planning at this Davos meeting and how much of it we’ll never know. They ain’t seen nothing yet. President Biden’s feud with oil companies heats up again, as the industry fires back, or is it just hot air? Yeah. Yeah, so that’s another thing. I mean, like when you look at Standard Oil, and the number of okay, we’re gonna we’re gonna break Standard Oil up, it shouldn’t have a monopoly. It’s just laughable. You know, so all of these different oil companies spin off, but then they all start merging again. Is it hot air? Yes, of course, it’s hot air. This idea of controlled opposition, or we’re gonna get out into the media and pretend that we oppose this bill or pretend that we oppose this industry. In my opinion, it’s done for show. I’ve talked before about the pageantry and the play acting of corporate America, you come to the cubicle, you participate in the meetings, you show your face at happy hour, and you laugh at the right jokes, and you dress a certain way. There’s so much of this that boils down to pantomime. And we see the same thing I believe in the government and in the relationships between the state and corporate America, if we can even really differentiate the one from the other very much anymore. So much in my mind is about this pageantry and pantomime and keeping up a farce. You need to get a raise. It’s a workers market as job numbers show the great resignation is still going strong amid recession fears. The byline reads, inflation is still high, meaning workers have every reason and every opportunity to act now. Yeah, it’s so important to me to be the voice in the wilderness. That person involved in staffing and recruiting a job market expert who can come out here and tell you, this is not reflective of what I’m seeing. I don’t know a lot of people right now that are still continuing to Job hop that think the economy is doing great, and they need to go barge in and ask for a raise. Now you do have some people that are talking about rage, quitting and rage applying. And sometimes companies have to deal with the effect of that because somebody may go into the hiring funnel with no intention of ever taking the job. They’ve just, you know, they had a bad meeting with their boss that morning, they didn’t get the raise, they didn’t get the promotion. And so they’re like, Screw this, I’m out of here. But when the dust settles, they may not actually leave, they may just in the moment be rage applying to different jobs to see what happens. What I’m seeing with the majority of people that I interact with day in and day out is that no, they don’t feel that the great resignation is still going strong the way that it did and 2021 and a lot of people are starting to pull back and get conservative. So it is important to me to be that voice in the wilderness to tell you whatever you may be hearing from other people in the industry who want to play act. Here we go again, this this idea of pantomime. It’s like realtors that want to play act that the FOMO and the Yolo of the housing market we saw in 2021 is going to last forever marry the house but date there ain’t you should still buy right now. It’s still a great time. It’s like are you deranged? I mean, what’s what’s wrong with you to be thinking that I feel the same way and I mean, no disrespect to anybody who’s sincere in what they’re doing when I say this, but I feel the same way about anybody that’s going out and trying to hype up the job market. The Fed told you last year it was on CBS News, a major mainstream news outlet that they want to crash the job market. They want to see one or 2 million people unemployed at least, and they want to see wages stagnate. This notion that you’re getting a great resignation forever and ever and ever, and you can just job hop and job hop and job off and consistently make more money every single time that you leap. I don’t know how in good conscience that somebody could tell you that I’m certainly not going to. It’s okay with me to make bold statements and bold predictions. And it’s more than okay with me to buck the trend. And to be that lone voice of common sense telling you, hey, this is not reflective of what I’m seeing. In reality, maybe on Neptune. Hey, maybe in the Martian job market, that’s still true. But down here on Earth, I’m not seeing it. Over on fortune.com We have an analogous article to the one from CNBC Oxfam echoes Bill Gates and calling for new taxes on the rich with billionaire busting policies, and they show someone in a jet with a glass of champagne. So here’s what’s going to happen. The billionaires will always find a way to come out on top they’ll hire whatever tax attorneys and accountants and Politico’s they need they’ll put their money in tax havens safe haven countries they’re not going to actually pay any more they know how to game the system because they are the system Hello how are you pleased wake up. You remember that public enemy song? People people we are the same? No, we’re not the same because we don’t know the game. You and I don’t play the game. At the same level as some multibillionaire whose money has money has money. That’s that’s just a fact. Tesla’s used car prices are in freefall. But Elon Musk is not chiefly to blame, according to influential YouTube star aren’t even going to click on that how stupid Bitcoin roars past 20,000 in surprise surge can the rally last food Professor earning $221,000 A year embroiled in debate over inflation crisis after he slams grocery shoplifters. That definitely reminds me of that dystopian tweet about eat lentils. Don’t get cancer treatment for the pets. Just take the bus. Remember that a recession isn’t fun. I’ve said it before and I’ve got to say it again. If we were sitting down and writing a satire or a dystopian novel, we couldn’t do a better job in fiction than what we’re already seeing in truth. Today, it is Tuesday, January 17. I yet again feel like I’m living in an upside down topsy turvy clown world. Over on CNBC we find downfalls 300 points way down by Goldman Sachs shares. Goldman Sachs post its worst earnings miss in a decade as revenue falls while expenses rise. That seems like it could be a microcosm for all of us. It doesn’t it revenue falls while expenses rise. Kissinger backs Ukraine’s NATO membership says Russia needs the opportunity to rejoin the global system. I don’t even want to speculate on where that’s going and how that’s going to play out. We know that Blackrock has talked about building the Ukraine back better. There’s that whole region is such a powder keg right now. I hope and pray that nothing gets worse than it already is. But we just don’t know. Over on Yahoo Finance we find stocks mixed Goldman Sachs shares slide after biggest earnings miss in a decade. Bank of America CEO and fed easing why higher for longer make sense? Goldman Sachs had a miserable quarter. But wider market destruction may be coming. The bank’s numbers weren’t great, but it foresees deterioration in the future for everyone. Yeah, I mean, at the risk of sounding like a pessimist, which I hate to do that. I’m trying to just be real here. I’m very skeptical of any talking head that tries to say slow session, mild recession. Everything’s going to be fine. I’m still contemplating why Jamie Dimon said Oh, oops. Oops, I shouldn’t have used the word hurricane. That was naughty of me. Oh, I’ve got to walk it back. I’ll be talking about that in more detail on Thursday’s episode, but I just feel like there’s so much more than meets the eye. Okay, speaking of which real estate gurus say it may be time to buy a home now, mortgage rates are still high compared with last year anyway. And so are prices. So is it time to buy a home question mark? I can’t tell you what to do. And I can’t speak to what the market is like all over the country. Here in my little section of the Midwest, if you are trying to buy property with acreage, oh, yeah, the prices are still insane. I mean, to the point of defying logic, still, people want to LARP that they’re in 2021, the market is still red hot. Buyers have all this money, and they’re just going to show up with a wad of cash for a doodoo poop house. Or, oh, there’s a barn on the property, we’re going to act like it’s worth 30 grand. And then you look at the pictures and the roof is literally collapse. It looks like a barn that was built in 1850 and was never maintained. And it’s like, I’m not going to pay for that. I’m sorry. That’s, that’s crazy. Again, I can’t tell you what to do. But I am continuing to sit it out on the sidelines, like Orlando miner said, sit it out with purpose. Get your mind right, get your finances right, do what you need to do to be in the best shape possible. So that when an opportunity presents itself, it’s the right place. Right time right price, you’re ready to roll. But right now, today, what’s on the market. If I went to realtor.com, put in my search parameters and took a look. It’s It’s pitiful. I mean, it really is. Over on LinkedIn today, we found workforce leverage to normalize. And in keeping with the fact that we now have to have a kitschy name for everything, we get another one. Workers accustomed to feast or famine conditions in the job market may finally see something resembling normalcy in 2023. The Wall Street Journal writes this great rebalancing looks more likely as earnings increase and job growth, both of which skyrocketed in the past two years start to moderate. What’s been what’s been. So instead of going back to what the Fed said last year, that they wanted to see unemployment go up. They wanted to see wages stagnate. So instead of saying that earnings are not going to increase anymore, and there’s not going to be more job growth, start to moderate. Right, we can read it in the same tone, slow session, mild recession, slight hiccup, a little bump in the road. These increases are starting to moderate. The takeaway for workers experts say there’s no reason to panic, but expect employers to regain some leverage, especially as companies look to gird against a possible recession with layoffs and hiring freezes and go. Hmm. Yeah. I’m not going to tell anybody to panic. First of all, I’m not going to tell you what to do periodic to. I sit here and opine for your entertainment only in terms of panic. No, no, no, no, no, that’s one thing I agree with Dave Ramsey on when you get into a blind panic and you’re scared to death, you typically don’t make the best decisions. I’m not saying it’s impossible to make a good decision in a moment of panic. Some people can reach the eye of the hurricane and they have such clarity. Other people don’t other people turn into Chicken Little and they feel like the sky is falling. Generally speaking, a blind panic is not the best time to start making important decisions that will impact your life for years to come. It’s not about panic. To me, it’s about preparation. And I think whenever we look at these, in my opinion, hot air and hopium BS articles about okay, employers are going to regain some leverage possible recession start Timon or it keeps people in this suspended animation. They’re too worried about bread and circus and they’re not thinking about Holy shit. What would happen to me for real if I lost my job? What would happen to me if I were on a contract or a temp assignment, and then manager walked in at three o’clock and said hey bud, I’m sorry about you. But today is going to be your last day we’re out of money and we can’t pay anymore. That happens. Raise your hand in the air. If you’ve ever freelanced or done contract work and had a client pull the rug out from underneath you apropos of nothing. My end is in the air. It’s happened to me. It’s a shit way to do business. But when you are in an at will state or you’re a 1099 consultant, they have every right to do that. They shouldn’t do it, it’s much more pleasant when they give you some kind of notice. And you can plan ahead and have your cash flow stay stable. But there are plenty of companies that don’t give a rip about that. They don’t respect you and they don’t respect the gig the way that they should. In my mind, this idea, that’s all going to be okay, we’re going to use very soft, very gentle NLP type language we’re going to program you, you have to be careful with that. You have to you have to play that game at your own risk. There’s a person who wrote a comment down below this article. Fortunately, it’s still there, we can still read it. It’s not the typical hot air and hopium BS that we typically see in the comment section. And this person writes, however, job openings still seem to outnumber the unemployed and this prospects are now and the prospects for finding new work are generally good, especially in the US, and he’s quoting from this article. Want us is this I was laid off in August, I’ve had one interview and two virtual interviews this after sending out 40 Or more applications, the openings as listed maybe more, but they the employers have no intention of filling them. Most of my laid off. colleagues have had the same results and quote. Well, thank you, sir, for telling the truth. I appreciate the fact that you are out here being honest about your experience. And I have told you repeatedly that some of these so called job postings that are open are not they are not they are evergreen positions. Are there some hiring manager trying to see if somebody better comes along, or they’re, they’re pipelining for the future. Maybe they’re going to hire somebody in the next quarter. Maybe they’re not but the job’s not really open right now. Today. This is reality. And I am so glad that somebody is out here telling the truth have been unemployed since August have had a total of three interviews after sending out 40 Or more applications. This is real. These supposedly open jobs According to CNBC, even they will tell you leisure and hospitality and healthcare. Not everybody is trained as a registered nurse or an emergency room doctor, they’re not going to be qualified for a job in healthcare. Not everybody can take a 12 to $18 an hour hospitality job and make ends meet. It’s like we need to start telling the truth about this. Also, over on the side panel for LinkedIn a little bit more Davos news today, CEOs veer into negativity. Global Business Leaders outlooks have taken a dramatically darker turn over the past year based on PwC 26th annual Global CEO survey released this week at Davos. Among the most striking findings roughly 40% of CEOs from 105 countries and territories predict their organization’s won’t be economically viable in a decade if they continue on their current trajectories. Negativity over the global economy has also skyrocketed over the past year with about three quarters of CEO citing shocks such as labor costs, increases inflation and higher interest rates, as well as Russia’s war on the Ukraine as contributing factors and quote, but we’re all supposed to be shiny, happy people holding hands. Don’t prepare. Don’t worry about the future. Don’t rush out that job loss survival plan. You just sit back, take your medicine. Take your bottle, like a good baby and hush your mouth. Today it is Wednesday January 18. on CNBC we find Bed Bath and Beyond looks for capital infusion and buyer ahead of likely bankruptcy filing. Microsoft Amazon and other tech companies have laid off more than 60,000 employees in the last year. Microsoft is laying off 10,000 employees. I published a blog post earlier today I’ll drop a link to it just lampooning this idea of where no workers market you should still be job hopping. Oh and don’t feel sorry for the laid off big tech workers because they’re getting jobs hella fast and for more money and it’s like here we go. If we were sitting at the marker board making it up. We couldn’t do a better job in fiction than what we’re being told to believe it. It’s so silly. Davos elites see a major risk ahead for markets with looming US debt standoff. Markets fully pricing in quarter point interest rate hike in February as inflation slows. Is it slowing? I guess whenever we make it to the grocery store for the week, I’ll look I’ll really pay attention to it. See if maybe the staple items have gone down by a penny or two but I doubt it. Stocks give back gains Dow sheds more than 400 points as January rally loses steam. Over on Yahoo Finance it is a similar seen stocks fall as earnings season picks up retail sales plummet. Remember though, we were told that supposedly Black Friday was still good. Now even though the people I spoke to that went out and about said they did not see shoppers just cram jammed into stores. Then we were told well that’s okay. Because Cyber Monday cyber week, cyber fortnight cyber month, it’s going to all be fine. Now we’re being allowed to know what common sense already told us that retail sales plummeted Microsoft to cut 10,000 jobs as PC sales and cloud growth decline. David Rubenstein says Fed will settle for a tolerable 3% inflation. Feds Beige Book inflation slows job market remains tight. Could be wrong on this just my opinion. But it seems like we’re still getting this narrative of the labor market is too hot and more work is needed. In order to really crash it good and proper, more work is needed. Dow falls 450 points after weak economic data hawkish fed remarks ease inflation cheer. There is no inflation cheer. BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager says central banks are deliberately causing recessions and warns of a downturn unlike any other. That’s not a new headline, even though they’re putting it back up. Again. That’s not new information. I have asked the question before, I don’t really understand what it is that Jamie Dimon suddenly feels optimistic about why he thinks that there won’t be a hurricane. Why he suddenly walking that back? I don’t know. I don’t know. I’m still not seeing it. And when you look at the information coming out of Davos, apparently the fat cats and the power brokers and the real for real high rollers. They’re not seeing it either. Also today, apparently there was a helicopter crash that killed I think the Ukrainian interior minister, maybe some other officials as well from the government. And Zelinsky has gone to Davos or called in whatever to ask the Western world for more tanks. So we got that going for us. Over on the side panel for LinkedIn, we find Microsoft to layoff 10,000 workers. High fares hike, airline profits. Retail sales crumbled over the holidays. Yeah. The only thing that I heard about being crowded was one lady who said that a local thrift store was having a half off sale for Black Friday and you couldn’t squeeze another person in there. But regular retail sales. Nike courts Gen Z. Musk’s tweet drama heads to court, Amazon Prime Numbers leveling off question more. Finance execs more in bonuses will fall. I’m gonna punt the question to you What do you hear? What do you see in any of that? That makes you feel optimistic right now about the economy or the world economy? Forget about just America economy. We have plenty of listeners from all over the world. So think about wherever it is that you’re at. Is there anything going on that really makes you stop and say I feel like we’re in for a turnaround? I feel like a Christmas miracle come late, is going to suddenly open up the doors and everything will be just fine. I’m not seeing it. But maybe you are. I don’t know. Apparently Jamie Dimon is maybe we need to take whatever he’s taking. Today it is Thursday, January 19. Yahoo Finance and CNBC are almost identical. Today with the exception of on CNBC, we find the headline, Morgan Stanley sees a great opportunity in defense stocks in 2023. Hmm, you know, I could be wrong. This is only my opinion, and it could be incorrect. But that makes me think that perhaps the engines of war are not going to calm down anytime soon. Now, maybe that’s just my false notion here. Kinda seems to be going that way. Over on Yahoo Finance we find stocks fall as Wall Street takes in earnings and fed speak. US officially hits debt limit extraordinary men ushers begin. Oh boy. So let’s click on that. Let’s just get that one right out of the way. The US government just hit its $31.4 trillion debt ceiling, triggering fears of a nasty fallout for Americans. Here are three ways it could hurt you. Only three. The US officially hit its $31.4 trillion debt ceiling on Thursday, launching a ticking time bomb toward a potentially calamitous debt default. Unable to break the political deadlock in Congress, the Treasury will now take extraordinary measures to ensure the government can pay its bills. The emergency measures are due to expire on June 5, according to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, triggering fears of a nasty fallout for Americans here are three ways it could hurt you. Freezing social support. The Council of Economic Advisers and agency that advises the President on economic policy has painted a grim picture of life after debt default, every single American could feel the impact. payments from the federal government that families rely on to make ends meet would be endangered. The basic functions of the federal government including maintaining national defense, national parks and countless others would be at risk. The public health system, which has enabled this country to react to a global pandemic would be unable to adequately function. What does that mean for individual households, it means that the government could delay various paychecks that helped millions of Americans such as Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid and benefits to veterans market turmoil. History has a tendency of repeating itself. And this does not bode well for America’s 11th hour debt ceiling decision or Your investments. In 2011 Congress approved a debt ceiling extension with just hours to spare before the Treasury would default. This Close call prompted credit rating agency Standard and Poor’s to strip the US of its price triple A rating, removing it from its list of lower risk countries. I remember that the agency cited dysfunctional policymaking in Washington as a factor in the downgrade. skittish investors reacted quickly in the stock market tanked. It took the s&p 500 index almost six months to recover. But remember now, we’ve been told by some of these individuals that we need to buy the dip. The worst is over with things are looking good. You just go ahead little peon and you buy that dip. Sure. What’s happening today is similar. the coming months of extraordinary measures look set for a long drawn out political wrestling match with opposing Republicans using their votes on an extension as leveraged to seek spending cuts. As things stand another down to the wire debt ceiling extension seems likely. This could cause a storm for the s&p 500 index, which is already hurting after a double digit decline in 2022. Credit card and mortgage rates, credit card interest rates as well as other interest bearing loans like mortgages and auto loans are tied to the health of the US economy, which is facing Dire Straits in this debt default debacle. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates from 4.25% to 4.5%. During its final monetary policy meeting of 2022, pushing borrowing costs to the highest level since 2007. There’s another shade of the Great Recession. When the Fed funds rate goes up the prime rate the interest rate banks lend to customers with good credit also increases. This means borrowers must pay higher interest rates on their credit card balances mortgages could also become more expensive for American families. Oh but remember the realtors that told you marry the house date the rate? This is still a good time to buy a house dammit because that’s what I want you to do to put money in my pocket. Sure. According to the CEA These and other consequences could trigger a recession and a credit market freeze. Oh, it could trigger a recession. I’m also going to butt in to say that I like how whenever I’m in the office hear talking that’s when my sheep like to come up outside the window and screen. So there’s ever a time when you’re bad. Yeah, that okay, this is a working farm and ranch. It is what it is. Right so it could trigger a recession. Okay, sure. And a credit market freeze. How bad is it really going to be? I know that sounds pessimistic. I know that sounds Debbie downer, sour, dour. I get it. I do. But I just remember what it was like during the great recession and how pinched we all were. You know, I was reminiscing about that yesterday evening with a friend of mine. I remember going into this one. is actually pre Great Recession before all of the fallout happened, I mean, I was living paycheck to paycheck and every penny counted. And I remember going into, like a happy hour at a local bar, and they had 25 cent draft beer on certain times of the week during this happy hour. And I remember paying for a 25 cent Coors Light and pennies. And I remember during the Great Recession, going to the value menu, you know, a night out meant eating off the value menu at a fast food joint and going to the matinee at the movies. It was really exciting when they would have a canned food drive where it was like, if you bring a canned good you can get in for $1 to watch a movie. I mean, I remember, you know, and so I’m just like, I feel like I’ve seen this movie before. And I feel like they just keep trying to maintain an air of comb, hush your mouth, don’t worry about it. And the more they tell me not to worry, the more I think it’s complete and utter bullshit. There’s no other there’s no polite nicey nicey way to say it. That’s what I think is going on. We’re being given hot air and hopium and Bs all the way to whatever this mess turns out to be credit market freezing. And can you think about what would happen to the average person who’s living paycheck to paycheck and having to pay to play credit card roulette? This is not a judgment, please understand. I have been that person before more than once in my life. But you think about what would happen if people were just told there’s not going to be any more credit. We’re in such a bind. I also feel like it’s present that I recorded and published that episode about what happened when the government went to corporate America hat in hand and said, Oh, hey, we’re gonna need a bailout and JP Morgan fork out the money. Could that happen again? Of course it could. Now there’s probably going to be a lot more backdoor secretive, furtive cloak and dagger aspects to it. Whatever Hail Mary pass it is i We won’t be allowed to know who’s really financing it 100 years from now. 200 years from now, those generations of people may be able to know but we’re not going to know. I highly doubt it. But we’ll see. So these extraordinary measures sound like they could be a complete and utter mess. I mean, if you’re depending on a check for Social Security or for your VA benefits, I mean, it’s going to be a mess. Mortgage rates retreat for third straight week. Mercer CEO says the need for talent is still there. not business as usual. Jim Cramer blasts dangerous $4.3 billion bailout of crypto bank. I told you I really wondered if we were going to wind up having to bail out crypto somebody was going to bail them out because that whole thing was looking like such an utter mess. We also learn that the Treasury is tapping retirement funds to avoid breaching the US debt limit. Oh, that sounds pleasant. Let’s click on that. The Treasury Department is beginning to is beginning the use of special measures to avoid a US payments default. After the federal debt limit was reached Thursday, the department is altering investments in to government run funds for retirees in a move that will give the Treasury scope to keep making federal payments while it’s unable to boost the overall level of debt. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen informed congressional leaders of both parties of the step and a letter on Thursday she had already notified them of the plan last week when she flagged that the debt limit would be hit on January 19. Yellen reiterated that the period of time that the extraordinary measures will avoid the government running out of cash is subject to considerable uncertainty. Can you imagine Okay, I got a button. Can you imagine if you ran your household this way? Or if you were the CEO of a business and you operated it like this? Who does this who functions in this way? subject to considerable uncertainty and urged Congress to act promptly to boost the debt limit. Oh, geez, because that’s what we need. It’s unfathomable to even picture that 31 and a half trillion dollars, but oh, hey, we need to go further in debt. Who owns this debt? Let’s think about that. Who owns this debt? Where is this money really going to come from? Last week she said the steps wouldn’t lie. likely be exhausted before early June. The specific funds affected by the Treasury’s move are the civil service retirement and disability fund, which provides defined benefits to retired and disabled federal employees and the Postal Service retiree health benefits Fund, which provides Postal Service retiree health benefit, premium payments. The fund has also invested in special issue treasuries. So again, I asked if you are one of the people dependent on those funds. How can this possibly affect you? I mean, are you prepared for what could happen? I know that that’s not a sexy topic to think about. But yeah, I really do believe we’re getting to a point where basic survival you need to really be thinking about what would happen I am not telling anybody to panic or to start hoarding anything are freaking out, the zombies are coming and they’re gonna eat your brains, nothing like that. I just think, and this is my opinion, again, I could be wrong. I just think that this whatever this is recession, depression, stagflation, economic collapse, whatever. I really in my heart believe it’s going to separate out the people who paid attention from those who didn’t. People who were able to think critically and use good, rational thinking. In other words, they’re not waiting on some talking head to tell them what they can already see and hear for themselves. That’s what I think. On a job market note here we go. City is ordering its low performing remote workers back to the office, that could be a bad sign for quiet quitters. Bah, bah bah bah. While Citibank promotes flexible work arrangements, workers who aren’t performing well, when at home will be ordered back to their cubicle CEO Jane Fraser told Bloomberg David Westin at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Tuesday. Now, I will also button to say that apparently the New Zealand Prime Minister is resigning says that she’s burned out doesn’t have any more gas in the tank. To me, this is another kind of wilfy Davos II situation. What’s really going on there? I don’t know. To me, it’s like that Liz trust gal that was prime minister for five minutes and then resigned at some weird stuffs going on. Weird maneuvers. You can see how productive someone is or isn’t and if they’re not being productive, we bring them back to the office or back to the site and we give them the coaching they need until they bring the productivity back up again Fraser’s that lack of productivity might be chalked up to quiet quitting. The term does your that describes doing the bare minimum of what’s asked of your work, and not the tiniest bit more not thought tiniest bit more. proponents have called it acting your wage. Fraser didn’t say how many workers were ordered back in but data shows that outsize lack of motivation among remote workers or by another name a quiet quitting epidemic is a myth slacks Think Tank Future Forum Excuse me. I’m going to have to pause this so I can cough pardon me their slacks Think Tank Future Forum survey 10,000 global white collar workers last October and found that those with full schedule flexibility showed 29% higher productivity scores than employees with no flexibility at all. Plus employees with flexible schedules reported a 53% greater ability to focus Yeah, and three times better work life balance than those with rigid in office protocols. Considering there’s no shortage of companies who remain bullish on a return to office despite ample evidence showing it’s unnecessary, to the point where some are tracking their workers productivity while working from home. It’s not unlikely other companies could follow in City’s footsteps. Yes, this is another no Sherlock moment. I have warned you about this and warned you and warned you and warned you. This is about the digital panopticon. It’s about obedience. It’s about compliance. This is not really about productivity, in my opinion. If it was then you would leave people to hell alone, wherever they are most productive if they need to be hot desking if that’s what they want to do for God knows what reason, okay? If they want to come into a rented office space space and have camaraderie with the gang cool. If they want to be left alone and work at home, that’s fine too. But we don’t see that. Indeed they are bullish on our to and yes, other companies will follow in cities footsteps, because they’re following in the footsteps of Lord Elon, and Zuckerberg. Some of you can just self select gone out the door, and that’s fine by us. RTO or it’s your job. If you don’t show up here button seat for a minimum of 40 hours, we’re going to assume you’re resigned and we’ll move on. I told you that this was coming. And in spite of the fact that people want to give you hot air and hopium, I’m trying as best as possible to give you the truth as I see it. I could be wrong. I’m not an Oracle from olden times, I don’t know everything there is to know. In my gut, in my heart, I just feel like we are headed into an economic mess. And I also feel like corporate America, by and large, not everybody, not every single company, but by and large corporate America will use this economic downturn. And by necessity, its higher unemployment rate as leverage to demand that you do whatever the hell they want you to do. I hope that I am wrong about that. I just don’t see any way around it. Today, it is Friday, January 20. T GIF. I’m so tired. A little bit of housekeeping. As I’ve said before, I am 99% sure that for all intents and purposes on certain platforms, I am shadowbanned. You sort of know when your posts are just not getting the reach that they should that hmm, something’s not quite right about that. I also think you know that when you’re starting to truly hit nails on their heads, and all of a sudden your message is just getting suppressed. I think you kind of can connect the dots on that. So as I’ve said before, don’t wait on social media to tell you that I have published a blog post or that I have published a podcast episode. If you like tuning in on a regular basis. Please subscribe to the podcast so that the episodes will be delivered to you by whatever provider you prefer. You can find my blog, I’ll drop another link to it. It’s available at the Causey consulting LLC website. And then also I have commandeered My name as a domain, Sara causey.com. And the blog post that I publish on the consulting website will also be mirrored over there. So I am findable. I would just ask, don’t rely on these platforms that I don’t own. I don’t control I don’t have any say in what they publicize or what they suppress. So if you care about the message, you want to support me just in terms of putting your eyes on my content. I am findable. Make sure that you’re not waiting on social media. Over on CNBC today, we find Feds seize almost $700 million of FTX assets in SAM Bateman freed criminal case. Google to lay off 12,000 people. stocks closed higher on Friday, NASDAQ notches third straight week of winds. Fed Governor Waller backs quarter point interest rate hike at next meeting. Google is delaying a portion of employee bonus checks. Yahoo Finance a very similar saying Google Microsoft and more 2023 tech layoffs pile up. Elon Musk could be called Friday in Tesla tweet trial. Feds Waller citing good news Vax quarter point hike. Oh, yet again. I’m quite sure what this good news is. But okay. NASDAQ rises 2.7% as tech leads Wall Street and big Friday stock rally. Hmm. This week and Biden omics slowdown. I guess this is more of that slow session narrative. Not a recession but a slow session. Over on the side panel for LinkedIn news, we find alphabet to layoff 12,000 employees. Text luster is fading. JP Morgan’s diamond slams work from home. Well, that’s not a surprise to any of us because he’s done that before. He was the one that said he wanted the fall to look like the fall of 2019 and I warned you about that repeatedly. fake meat falls on hard times. T Mobile says 37 million hit by hack. According to the FFA the outage that we saw was a human error. Feds aim to quash organic fraud and crypto lender files for bankruptcy. Oh, our old buddy Jamie Dimon. What a peach. When we click on Jamie Dimon slams work from home we find JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon has become the latest executive to criticize working from home telling the World Economic Forum at Davos that w h f worked from home. Does it work for bosses well going big bang wins. That’s really all that matters. Are the bosses Happy are the Dutch protrudes the feudal lords the people that you know like really matter in this world. They’re the ones hands that are supposed to be happy, not you and me. Diamond said younger employees also don’t benefit from the arrangement, although he did concede that it does help some groups. So here we go more generational clickbait supposedly all these Gen Z kids are clamoring to return to the office because they miss something they never had. I’ve not talked to a single person in Gen Z who feels that way. Maybe that one person out of a million is out there, especially if they’re paid by the media to say they are Oops, oh, my pressure and I said no notes, but you know, I’m not finding them. Modify your company to help women stay at home a little stated diamond, adding that many working mothers undertake a disproportionate portion of childcare. There are concerns that amid industry wide layoffs and economic uncertainty, people who work from home could be unfairly targeted for cuts and quote. I mean, I told you I have told you and told you and told you and told you this was coming. They’re gonna go from the carrot to the stick some companies already have and they’re just going to full on demand RTO and I feel like his little comment there modify your company to help women stay at home a little how patronizing and pejorative is that they help the women folk, you know, they they just kind of, you know, they’re barefoot and pregnant anyway. So you okay, if they want to stay at home a little, you know, we’re not gonna think about paternity leave, we’re not gonna think about stay at home dads, screw them. No, just let the women folk, you know, they’re not they’re not as important to us anyway. Right? So let them stay at home a little. Everything about this makes me want to puke in my mouth. I am just so fed up with these fat cats. And these power brokers who think that they are so much better than everybody else that just the snobbery and the arrogance of it is astounding to me. I’ll be releasing a bonus episode on Monday where I want to really dive into the BS narratives that we’re getting about the job market still. And yet, we’re still in job market clown world. Okay, that hasn’t changed. I want to go particularly into an article that I found on CNBC today, titled, despite a wave of layoff announcements, it’s still a good time to get a job career experts say, Oh, right. Yeah, of course it is, of course, you know, so let’s go and talk to people who have been unemployed for months, they’re struggling to even get callbacks or interviews. But sure, it’s a great time to go find a job. Supposedly, we still have a 3.5% unemployment right now, even though CNBC will also point out that this red hot labor market is really only happening in leisure and hospitality and healthcare, you’re just supposed to ignore that. If you get laid off from 100k tech job, you should just go take like a 15 $18 an hour job and leisure and hospitality or in fast food. And you know, that should just be enough for you. You know, just kind of like sit down, shut up and go away. Oh, and then also please keep in mind, if you become a discouraged worker, and you stop looking for a little while, well, then we’re just not going to count you in the unemployment numbers anyway. Round and round and round it goes. You know, even in the freelancing and gigging world, I warn you about this as well. There may be more competition from what’s available, it’s like people fighting for scraps. Now, typically, okay, outside of the FOMO and the Yolo. And the insanity that was 2021. Pretty typically November, December, January, can be ghost towns. That can be a point in time where a lot of things slow down whether we’re talking about full time w two employment or whether we’re talking about gaining freelancing, project, work contracts and so on. Is this not just that six week period of time of the holidays here in America, it really is in in its entirety, November, December, January, after about Halloween, you better really hope that you’ve put together a nest egg because things could be slow. I am seeing this for sure in freelancing and gigging people fighting over scraps, clients wanting to pay pennies on the dollar clients claiming that they have a sense of urgency and saying, Well, we want to start somebody immediately. But their definition of immediately and then what a freelancers definition of immediately may be, appear to be two completely different things. You may talk to somebody and say, Yeah, I can get started on this project tomorrow morning at 9am. Oh, well, no, no, no. I mean, we probably not going to do anything until I don’t know sometime in February, but we’re hiring immediately. No, you’re not. No you’re not and quit lying. But that’s the thing. I think people superficially look at these job postings and they say must be available immediately. This need is urgent, urgently hiring. And they think oh, well, okay, that must be true. It may be in some cases it is. But I’m here to tell you from firsthand experience. No, it isn’t. Somebody may tell you that they’re rip roaring ready to go. They’ve dotted all the i’s. They’ve crossed all the T’s. And let’s let’s do this deal. Let’s get it rolling. And then No, no, no, no, no, no. Some of this is natural. As I said, November, December, January can be sort of dead months for any kind of job search or trying to rustle up business. But I’m seeing it more acutely now. And, again, I understand this probably sounds depressing, but I’m also seeing a lot more people fighting over scraps. I mean, just, I mean, no disrespect, but bullshit jobs, awful jobs for awful pay. Clients who sound like they would be really awful to work for. And then you look and it’ll have like, 20 to 20 to 50 proposals on Upwork. And it’s like, Oh, why? Why? Why? You know, are you going on LinkedIn and be like, currently, this piece of crap job has more than 200 applicants, and you’re like, why? But you know why people are hurting? We don’t have, in my opinion, a 3.5% unemployment rate. There are all of these hot jobs roll ups where everybody is just clamoring for employees. No, no, I don’t think so. So I’ll get into that a little bit on Monday. In the meantime, please stay safe, stay sane. Do what you can to look out for yourself and your family. And I will see you in the next episode. Thanks for tuning in. If you enjoyed this episode, please take a quick second to subscribe to this podcast and share it with your friends. We’ll see you next time.