24 Dec Saturday Broadcast 29
✔️ ICYMI news, 12/19 – 12/23.
✔️ So many shenanigans are going on in the job market. PIPs. Changed metrics. Lower performance scores. Relocate or quit. Keep your head on a swivel!
✔️Whether you’re looking at the job market or the housing market, Q4 of 2022 looks a lot different than Q4 of 2021.
✔️You mean forced groupthink sucks and being on constant surveillance apps is stressful for people? Well no duh!
✔️Are you listening to hot air and hopium or do you feel prepared for whatever is on the horizon?
Need more? Email me: https://causeyconsultingllc.com/contact-causey/
Programming note: The podcast will be on hiatus until Tuesday, January 3rd. I hope you all have a wonderful holiday season!
Transcription by Otter.ai. Please forgive any typos!
Hello Hello and thanks for tuning in. Today it is Monday December 19. Over on Yahoo Finance we find stocks start week lower as rate jitters dash hopes for year end rally. US equities extended out Monday after stocks booked consecutive weekly losses for the first time since late September. Oppenheimer downgrades Tesla cites Musk drama. Oh, and speaking of drama, Sam Venkman. Fried wants more info before agreeing to us extradition. I’m sure he does. AMC stock hits lowest point since January 2021. Inflation there’s not a whole lot of optimism from consumers analyst says, Oh, really? Do you think Nike stock falls ahead of Tuesday’s earnings report. analyst says FedEx stock remains vulnerable by Nance to buy crypto lender voyagers assets. Avatar SQL misses estimates. You know, one of the things I told you is that I expected we would see mergers and acquisitions. And then it may not always be a prominent company that’s doing really well buying up another company that’s not doing well. Sometimes you may find companies that both of them are not doing so great. So they decide to join forces and become one company. To me, this is just the beginning of what’s going to happen. The US inflation slowdown isn’t coming from the Feds rate hikes. Recent US inflation data has been a win 14 transitory economists who predicted that inflation would come down without interest rate hikes. You know, but just the other day Powell was like, Oh, I guess we’re kind of having to get more information about when inflation goes to an economy. This is like a comedy man. I mean, just demand remains very weak. Even as mortgage rates drop again, experts say many buyers are hesitant, what do you think? Yet again, okay, it’s the economy, stupid. But then on top of that, we’re in q4, unless someone has a very burning need a pressing need and true emergency. Most people don’t want to sell at Christmas time, and most people don’t want to buy at Christmas time. That’s just not a point when people are like, You know what I want to do for Christmas, I want to get embroiled in a real estate deal. Just commonly, that’s not the case. And we see an analogous thing happening in the job market. There are times when I feel like I have banged my head against a brick wall. So many times with hiring managers trying to explain to them q4 of 2022 is nothing like q4 of 2021. At that point in time, December of 2021, was freaking insane. I really didn’t take much time off in December of last year, because I couldn’t I was so busy. And it was easy. I’m not gonna sit here and lie to you, it was easy to get people on the telephone and willing to have a conversation with you. It just was a lot more people viewed themselves as free agents. And they felt like the onus is on me to look out for my career. And if somebody’s calling me and I have the chance to make more money, or get 100% Guaranteed work from home, I’m going to do it. Why would I not? That was really the attitude that you found. Why would I not? It’d be stupid of me not to keep my options open. That’s not happening now. In the same way that buyers are hesitant, even though mortgage rates are dropping, demand is still weak. No, duh. It’s the same thing in the job market. But you will have hiring managers that are like well, we just don’t understand why our hiring funnel is not full like it was last year. We just don’t understand why candidates say they’re interested and then they manage. We just don’t understand why nobody will pick up the phone on the same week as Christmas and it’s like really, you don’t understand, historically, this time of the year is a dead zone. The anomaly was last year, last year, the great resignation that was not the quote new normal, that was a blip on the radar. But yet trying to explain that to people who were like what it is don’t understand why a candidate wouldn’t want to get on the phone with me and talk about a hybrid opportunity or talk about full on RTO the same week as Christmas. Really, you don’t understand are you just looking for somebody to be your skin goat, are you just looking for somebody to have a wine and a moan to, they’ll get some cheese with your wine because I really don’t want to hear it. I feel like I have explained and explained and explained and explained, and it’s like I’ve told you listeners before, like, I’m no longer recording these broadcasts in the hope that I can wake up the masses. I’m really just here for those of us who already get it. And we’re watching this insanity unfold in real time. I’m also in the process of trying to write what I’m thinking of is like a field guide, a short, quick and dirty, easy to read book about job market crash survival. As I’ve said before, the Fed is not being shy, they’re not hiding it. They want to crash the job market, they want to see unemployment go up, and they want to see wages go down. This is not hidden and obscure information. It was published in mainstream media, on CBS News, I’ve dropped the link to it many times. And I’m really doing that in the hopes that that one person out there who needs that this this one person out there who’s like, I will share this with my sister, or my brother, or my daughter, or my mom or somebody will find it who needs it, and it will help them. But as far as like trying to wake up people that are just Mindlessly scrolling on social media and playing games all day. Know, that ship has sailed. And that’s how I feel about the hiring managers who they don’t want to accept that most people don’t want our to or hybrid hell of half measures. They don’t want to accept that this is a dead zone. Most people don’t want to think about a job change at Christmas. They don’t want to think about a job change on New Year’s Day. They want to get further into q1 before they start making those decisions. Again, the great resignation for white collar knowledge work is over o v e r and has been for quite some time now. At some point, you get tired of feeling like are you just not listening? Or are you going to keep coming back to me with the same set of questions because you hope one day I’ll tell you whatever you want to hear. I don’t know I don’t get it. Also, we find Toyota president says silent majority questioning electric vehicle only push we shouldn’t limit ourselves. Well, it definitely may come down to that the affordability factor on some of these electric vehicles is insane. Over on fortune we find time to end this nightmare. Analyst Dan Ives says Elon Musk will likely stepped down from Twitter as company is on track to lose roughly $4 billion. Wow. I think he did some kind of poll earlier today where it was like should I step down? Yes or no, I’ll abide by the poll. And I think a very clear majority was like Yes, go on get slow motion train wreck. Economist Dr. Doom is extra gloomy, as he warns of a deep and protracted recession, and says World War Three has already begun. Wow. Wow. Elon Musk complains that running Twitter is a drain on his life savings and a lot of pain. Oh, poor baby. From quiet quitting to career cushioning all the work phrases we loved to hate this year. Yeah, there has to be a catchy name for everything. Somebody can’t just say here’s a concept. They have to invent some kitschy name that everyone immediately finds annoying. I don’t get it. investors think stagflation. A 1970s style death spiral is a bigger threat to the US economy than a recession. Yeah, I’m not. I’ve told you many times. I’m not an economist, professional financial planner or advisor. I’m not an all seeing Oracle. I don’t know precisely how this is going to play out. But 1970 Stagflation is a very real possibility. We could also see deflation. I’ve argued more than once about the possibility of what if the 1982 recession had a baby with the 2008 Great Recession? Whatever this is, in my opinion, it’s going to be one nasty economic poopoo storm. And if you’re not ready, God help you. It’s all I can say. I know Oh, I know. Believe me Debbie Downer. gloom and doom or you’re sounding like you’re calling for the apocalypse. No, I’m not. I have never once told you we’re going to be in this Thunderdome. And I also don’t do this clickbait crap. If you’ve only got four more days, you’ve only got five more minutes. I don’t do that. No. I think at this point, the evidence is mounting and mounting and mounting that we’re going into a mess. If somebody hasn’t figured that out by now there’s gonna be a damn thing I can get on a Saturday broadcast and say to them, it’s going to change their mind. In other news over on the side panel for LinkedIn, we find an article that any introvert or anyone with neurodiversity, or anyone who I don’t know, he’s just a free thinker that likes to critically think any of those people could have told you this. We find dangers of too much collaboration, collaboration technologies that work could be doing more harm than good to productivity based on a research cited by Harvard Business Review. It suggests a high frequency of app usage is driving micro stress in the workplace, with 49% of participating employees experiencing priority overload, causing them to focus more on non critical work than essential tasks. How can companies ease this form of burnout? Consider four solutions, offer tools and platforms with focus options, consider some form of collaborative intelligence, possibly a dashboard that lets workers track daily collaboration metrics, establish collaboration, norms, reset and rebuild in quote. Yeah, okay. I’m going to publish a blog post about this later this week, I think but I mean, no duh is over collaboration, a danger. Is it doing more harm than good? Well, yeah, of course it is, is forcing people to be on these surveillance oriented apps all day long. And God forbid your light goes yellow or red? Yeah, of course, it’s stressful. I wouldn’t say it’s a micro stress, I would say it’s just stress. And it’s also asinine, and degrading. I think that’s what people so often, it’s like, they just don’t even want to go there. They don’t want to talk about things that are degrading, belittling, that make you feel horrible, like the forced fun skits, people having to sing songs, or wear costumes, or they get to a happy hour, and there’s a lot of pressure to drink. Even that, though, that may not be something that they want to do, it may not be something that’s healthy for them to do. All of a sudden, while you’re gonna be the sore thumb, you’re gonna be the wet blanket. If you don’t do this, if you don’t go to company sponsored paintball, and act like somebody who has consumed five Red Bulls and a lot of testosterone before you get there, then you’re just a stick in the mud. We don’t really like you anymore, because you don’t go along to get along. So so much of this is about conformity. It’s about obedience. And it’s about conformity. Do what we tell you to do? Sit in this room and think what you’re supposed to think. I’ve said many times before, that I feel like these groupthink sessions, you know, let’s hurt everybody into a conference room. Or if we’re talking about working virtually, let’s hurt everybody on to one of those ghastly video call platforms and have a cowpoke round up. It’s not about diversity. And it’s definitely not about really bringing fresh ideas and fresh opinions and fresh options to the table. Typically allowed extrovert and it’s often male is often a man, a loud, male extrovert is the one that wins the day, it’s almost like who can shout the loudest who’s willing to be very abrasive and talk over the top of everybody else. And it really cuts out an opportunity for someone who’s quieter, more reserved, more introspective, you know, sometimes people with neuro diversity, they need the opportunity to stop and think being called into a sudden meeting with no clear agenda. It throws them off. They’re not they’re not sure what’s going to happen here. And they don’t have the opportunity to prepare a thoughtful response. They don’t even know what the question is, to be able to prepare a response. So I just don’t feel like it’s really about let’s collaborate, let’s innovate. And all these idiotic corporate buzzwords they use that are so hollow, and so meaningless. It’s not about that. It’s about you get your butt in this meeting room, or you get your butt on this video call. And you’re going to, you know, through magic, I guess, or NLP programming, you’re going to come to the same conclusion that the CEO wanted you to come to anyway. It’s so much like one of us, one of us. And the suggestions that they offer in this article are, in my opinion, also idiotic. I mean, okay, so one of them is opt for tools and platforms with focus options, right? And then whenever you put on your DND button, so that you’re not disturbed, you’re going to run afoul of your boss. Why was your? Why was your light yellow? Why was your light red? How come you were unavailable from 1pm to 3pm? What were you doing? We wanted to ping you for a dumb ass. I’m sorry. I’m trying to keep it clean. But I just get so frustrated with corporate America sometimes. We wanted you to show up for this demo as cowpoke round up at 230 And you were on d&d And how dare you that’s what really happens. That’s what really for real for real happens in the real world. You get in trouble you get your hand slapped. Because you had your Do Not Disturb button on consider or some form of collaborative intelligence, possibly a dashboard that lets workers track daily collaboration metrics? Oh, great. So then you have to also be responsible for a dashboard, and some stupid Tiki marks and a database about collaboration metrics. So you’re saying that being on all of these apps is driving micro stress. So then you’re going to also make them be on a dashboard and track collaboration metrics that connect the dots? You know, that sounds a lot to me like a social see our e d i t s c 0 r e? Did you stand around at the coffee pot in this morning? Did you high five your coworkers? Where are you available for at least five out of 50 million zoom calls that we had this week? I don’t like the smell of that at all. It stinks. Established collaboration norms. Oh, okay. So the danger of too much collaboration. But then you’re going to say establish collaboration norms. That right, they’ll run I can’t even talk today. That right there tells me this is all about groupthink. It’s all about conformity. Establish collaboration norms. We need to all get in this room and sing the company song and hold hands and think the same way. Yet again, one reason why I’m so passionate about exposing cult like tactics used in corporate America, because they are their collaboration nor let’s all sing the songs. Let’s all wear the same robe. Let’s all wear the same shoes. So creepy, reset and rebuild. Which What does that even made? If you really wanted to have a reset and a rebuild, you would tear all of that infrastructure out and say you know what, we really truly aren’t going to focus on productivity results are king. We’re not going to get in your sandbox and micromanager process. If you are doing what you’re supposed to be doing. I don’t care if you’re working at 2am I don’t care if you’re working at 2pm I don’t care if you never want to be on another video call again and your life or if you’re Suzy the extrovert cream cheese girl. And you want to be on camera every five seconds. You do you this this No. This isn’t anything more than obedience and groupthink and conformity. Today, it is Tuesday, December 20. on CNBC, we have headlines such as FedEx earnings sink, a soft demand persists, Dow closes higher to end four day losing streak. And it’s funny because the picture they have with that headline doesn’t match. And that’s because the headline only changed a moment ago. So it’s a picture of a young man staring at a computer screen looking sad and disappointed. And the reason for the mismatch is because we were told only moments ago that the Dow was down and this was just sad, depressing news. Oh, but it’s up again. And I haven’t even had time to change the picture. I guess. Elon Musk actively searching for a new Twitter CEO sources say? Yeah, so I’m going to put my tinfoil hat on here. I mean, I just don’t think any of this is accidental. You know, I mean, I’ve read my little spiel about the military industrial complex on one of the previous Saturday broadcasts. And so I’m like, there has to be a method to this madness. There has to be something that’s going on behind the curtain that we’re just not aware of yet. Just my thought, okay, tinfoil hat, who was just my idea, Supreme Court likely to dismantle student loan forgiveness plan, says Harvard law professor. Again, if you were counting on that money, if you were hyped up about it, if it was really going to make a difference in your life, how are you prepared to handle it, if this whole thing just evaporates into nothingness? You know, I mentioned yesterday that I’m in the process of trying to write a miniature book slash field guide about putting together your job loss survival plan. And this is exactly the reason people want to cling on to hot air and hopium they want to look at snippets and they headlines that just seem to be encouraging or they watch some politician telling them everything’s going to be all right, don’t worry, inflation is transitory boringk. The job market is still blazing hot wink. And it’s like wow, I was thinking about what it’s like in winter weather. You know, if the meteorologist comes on TV and says in approximately four days, we’re going to have a blizzard and it’s going to be insane. You have some people that leave right then they get the car keys and they go to the grocery store and they start to stock up. Now you have some people in the prepper community, they’ve already long ago stocked up they don’t need to rush around anywhere. They’re not in a mad panic because they already have everything that they need. And I give two thumbs up to that situation. Just have some people that write in as soon as they hear the announcement, they’re in the car, they’re going, they’re taking care of business as best they can. Then you have other people that will wait until an hour before the storm rolls in, jam pack themselves into the grocery store, and then have a whine and moan about how these shelves are already barren and nobody left anything for them. It’s like, Well, why didn’t you prepare better? I really do think at some point, this is going to separate out the people who paid attention and read the tea leaves from the people who didn’t. And I’m not saying please, please, please understand, this is not in any way shape, or form the fault of working class or poor people. It’s not. They will be the ones that get steamrolled. However, it’s not going to be the fat cats and the power brokers, they will always, always figure out a way to profiteer from the misery of others. So the best thing that you can do, in my opinion, is to try and be prepared to stay aware. Stay alert, keep your head on a swivel, and do what you can, so that you’re ready to ride out the storm. You’re not that person in the grocery store with hardly anything in your basket. 10 minutes before the blizzard rolls in. Walgreens and CVS limit sales of children’s medications amid triple Demmick. Another reason? Okay, here we go yet again, another reason to be prepared ahead of time. You know, I talked earlier on some of the Saturday broadcast this year about going into the store and seeing very little in the way of over the counter medication. Sometimes they would have ibuprofen, but not acetaminophen, vice versa. Sometimes there would be no Aleve or an approximate sodium of any kind. Sometimes they would be really low on like bandages and band aids, sometimes there would be no like cold allergy flu sinus meds on the shelf. Remember the tampon shortage we had to go through that wasn’t that fun? If it’s at all within your means, in my opinion, it is so much better to have these things on hand at the house before you need them. Again, I’ve told you a lot of these stores that had been 24 7365. They’re not doing that anymore. And if your child wakes up sick at two o’clock in the morning, or you wake up sick, do you want to be without medication until the pharmacy opens. And then what happens if you get there? And there’s nothing they can give you. This? I understand in first world America, people don’t want to wrap their mind around that. But it is increasingly becoming a very, very real scenario. So much better to be prepared than scared in my opinion. Over on Yahoo Finance stocks nudge higher Tesla falls to lowest since November 2020. The byline reads US stocks were on pace to avoid a fifth straight losing session while Tesla shares remained under heavy selling pressure. Tesla stock concerns go beyond Musk multitasking at Twitter. Netflix stock will suffer if ad rollout struggles analyst says also in Disney news, you know they’ve had all of their shuffling around to Disney to start process to spin off ESPN and ABC in 2023. Wells Fargo reaches $3.7 billion settlement with CFPB over customer abuses. Oh boy who’s who is going to be looking for the bailout? Is it going to be crypto? Is it going to be these banks? Is it going to be the auto industry? The housing industry somebody’s going to show up with their hat in their hand. Probably more than one I’m sure because in my opinion this is an omni bubble. We will have a lot of hats coming out into hands asking us for the taxpayer money. Americans ramp up by now pay later use as inflation rises. Yeah. With new mortgages down 47% us lenders are starting to go bankrupt. Huh? Huh? Wow, what a surprise. I mean, it’s almost like we saw this exact freaking scenario play out before in a little bit of a okay type news. I’m using news and air quotes here. This 28 year old negotiated her pay to $500,000 and found work life balance how she job hopped her way to half a million dollars in pay while also finding more time to spend with her family. Yeah, okay, send me hate mail, put the butcher daggers out I get it. This is another reason why I wanted to write that mini book Field Guide thing is because like people see this and I go okay, great. I can I can even though the great resignation for white collar work is over, and we have more and more hiring managers getting so freakin stubborn about RTO and their precious hell of half measures hybrid. You have people that look at that and go, Oh, well, I’ll just continue to Job hop. And then I too, will make half a million dollars and have work life balance. I too will have like a cute little home office and be able to make half a million year. To me I put this in the same category as the stories you see where somebody has an like an insane business model. I sell my belly button went online and make a fortune. I pass gas into a bottle and sell it and people will buy it. Like there’s some woman I think selling her bathwater her dirty bathwater. Is that do you think I’m just going to ask you hear what you think? Do you think that any of this is a good, solid, reliable strategy in the event of a job loss? I’m not trying to burst anybody’s bubble and tell you not to freelance are telling you not to try not to start an online store not to do something creative and different. I don’t ever tell you what to do. I don’t give you advice. I just sit here and opine for your entertainment only. You know, if it were me, I would not myself want to assume that I could job hop and make half a million dollars and have work life balance. I would assume that that’s probably a headline because it’s so freakin rare. I would also assume that I probably would not be able to sell my bath water or my gas in a bottle to creepy dudes on the internet. I mean, a you know, okay, technically speaking, anything’s possible. But I think I would maybe perhaps want to be a little bit more practical and pragmatic. In thinking about my financial plan, if I lost a job, you know, just just saying it. Over on the side panel for LinkedIn, we have a couple of different things that are interesting here. So one is speaking of the Blizzard analogy, storm could disrupt holiday travel, this arctic blast, whatever they’re calling it, the Siberian Express, that looks like it’s going to be awful. The other day, I thought it was going to have like an AFib attack because the meteorologist here in the Midwest, that I watched the most was talking about negative 20 or negative 30. Wind chills. And I know that some people that live up north, that that may be fairly commonplace for you, you have the infrastructure in place to deal with it. But for those of us further south into the Midwest, no, that’s not common. And they’re talking about protecting people and pets and your pipes don’t don’t do things that would make you more likely to have a burst pipe and then have to call Disaster Restoration people. It’s just it’s going to be a mess. And then having livestock you always have to be thinking about their safety, their well being putting a game plan together. And for animals that are outside like cattle in a pasture, for example, mean they do have shelter, my cattle have a windbreak, they have places that they can go to get completely out of the elements and be dry. But you can’t run a furnace outside the pasture. mean, you’re not gonna be able to go out there and have central heat and air in an open pasture. It’s not going to work that way. So you really have to do as much as you can, especially with making sure they have enough calories and enough protein so that they generate their own heat. It’s going to be something. And it’s just so important, I think, to be prepared ahead of time and to take these things seriously. Because people always want to get their ego in the way, don’t they? Oh, well. If I do all this preparation, and it doesn’t happen, then I look like a fool. I feel stupid. We’ll get over it. You’re really going to be looking a fool if you do nothing. And then you’ve got to sit there on on your hands with no help and no resources. I just I guess I just don’t understand that attitude. Okay, so we have a couple of different things here that are like this right here is a microcosm of what the news is today. wage demands hit new high. But then you scroll down, and you see how companies are keeping pay down. You can’t make this up. I mean, still and yet people who are supposedly just getting so greedy with their wages, they are the ones crashing the economy. They are the ones to blame for recession. They are the ones to blame for inflation. Meanwhile, we all know that’s not true. The emperor doesn’t have any clothes on in that scenario, and we’re expected to pretend that he does. Give me a break. Today it is Wednesday, December 21. on CNBC we find Dow closes up 500 points lifted To buy upbeat earnings, strong consumer confidence data. Oh, like an early Christmas miracle, a little miracle here for the yield and Winter Solstice all the Dow is up and while it’s upbeat to 2023 should be a brighter year for the traditional 6040 portfolio. Oh, well, how wonderful. Home sales tumbled more than 7% In November the 10th straight month of declines. I think really the main headlines today, it seems to be a bit of a slow news day to me. I think the main headlines are this bomb cyclone winter storm that’s supposed to roll through tomorrow morning, along with Zelinsky showing up at the White House. It looks to me like from the little publicity photo we have here that he just rolled in and like a sweatshirt and khakis. But I think we’re all just supposed to be like super excited about that. I’m going to refrain from comment. AMC says it’s no longer in talks to acquire theaters from bankrupt Cineworld. What is going to happen to the movie theater realm? I really don’t know. I really don’t. Because when we think about streaming, and those of us that are just kind of like, you know, I don’t need to see it on a big screen to have the experience. I used to. That was one of my favorite things to go do. But it’s been a long time, even pre COVID Before we went to the movie theater, plus the cost of it and the concessions and all of that it’s just like, I don’t know, I don’t know what will happen there. I really don’t. Over unfortunate.com FTX is Sam Venkman fried will return to the US to face criminal charges and could spend the rest of his life in prison. Well, we’ll see. So many times people that pull these cones never see a day in jail. Or if they do it’s a slap on the wrist and they go to some minimum security prison where they have like tennis courts and swimming pools. Charlie Munger has plans for a massive college dorm to house 1000s of students with almost no windows poses significant health and safety risks report finds Do you need a report to tell you that you’re going to cram jam 1000s of students into a dorm with almost no windows and then act like you’re surprised that it would cause significant health and safety risks. I mean, you can’t make this stuff up. You just can’t. Tesla’s troubles are more proof that Elon Musk needs to step down as Twitter CEO. Again, we’ll see what happens there. I find it very hard to believe that this isn’t some kind of pre planned orchestrated maneuver. I mean, really, who does that? Who goes in? smears poop all over the place puts up an unscientific poll of Hey, y’all want me stay? Or y’all want me go? What are we thinking here? There’s an I mean, there’s just no way that this hasn’t, in my opinion, be pre planned. Just it seems like it has to be there’s something in my opinion, nefarious that’s going on behind the scenes, I don’t see that this is just like some big mistake. Oopsy daisy, we didn’t know it was gonna go this way. It’s something Something Wicked This Way Comes. I’m just saying it’s my opinion. Also in a bit of like, yeah, okay, sure. Workers still have power over their bosses, and a recession won’t stop the great resignation. What? I’m gonna say it again, for the people in the back. For white collar knowledge work, the great resignation is already over. And it has been for quite some time. I’m going to come out with a blog post on Friday talking about how remote workers are already worried that they’re going to get laid off. And they’re going to struggle to find another analogous remote work position. Now, it’s possible that some of that is fear porn. We’re gonna put this out ahead of time to make you afraid that’s entirely possible. But I really think the tide is turning. And as we go further into this economic mess, it’s only going to get worse, you really will see more and more employers becoming emboldened to call their employees back full time, no more hybrid hell of half measures either. I’ve predicted before two days in the office becomes three becomes four becomes five. I don’t see any way around this. And I really want to encourage everyone, do your own research, do your own critical thinking. In my mind, I cannot get to a logical place where I see the great resignation going on forever and ever and ever. And workers always having the balance of power when the pendulum swings and it and it already is. I will not stop talking about that leaked memo from Bank of America that was on the intercept.com. We want the balance of power to go away from employees and jobs. See because we want it to go away from them and come right back to us. In my mind, you are being so incredibly naive. If you don’t think that that will happen. What kind of opium what kind of hot air? What kind of good stuff are you on? If you think the great resignation will go on unimpeded forever, and that the balance of power will always be with the average working class person, really. Today is Thursday, December 22. The bomb cyclone winter storm has made its way through the Midwest and it definitely is something at points in time we had snow squall warnings and white out conditions it was just crazy. Now the snow seems to be fairly powdery, I don’t really know that it’s going to stick around for very long after the temperatures get up above freezing, but holy cannoli ease and for those of you not involved in agriculture, it is so challenging in weather like this to make sure that everybody is as well maintained and well cared for as possible it it puts a lot of extra stress and strain on you. As I’m sitting here recording this, the temperature is one and the windchill is minus 21. Now I know for those of you that are listening in Canada or Alaska or other colder parts of the world that may not even sound like anything remarkable but for us it really is we just don’t have the infrastructure for that kind of insane Windchill. So. Yeah, it’s been quite something today. Over on CNBC, we have Dow drops 400 points as December sell off resumes. What happened to that big rally yesterday that we were all supposed to be so excited about? FTX founder Sam Venkman fried to be released on $250 million bail will live with his parents. What could possibly go wrong there? I mean, I’m sure everything’s gonna be totally fine. Bitcoin dips and two executives tied to Sam Bateman freed plead guilty to federal charges. Airlines canceled hundreds of flights as winter storm and bitter cold sweeps the US before Christmas. I hope wherever you are listening to this when the broadcast drops on Saturday morning, I hope that you are safe and you were able to get wherever you need to go for the holidays because this is truly crazy. Google tells employees more of them will be at risk for low performance ratings next year. Hmm. When we click on that we find Google has released new details of its performance system overhaul and it shows employees will more easily fall into low rated categories. Employees questions at a recent all hands meeting showed a lack of trust in leadership to be forthright with how it handles headcount. Imagine employees said the new system amid industry wide layoffs has caused a lot of distress and anger. More Google employees will be at risk for low performance ratings and fewer are expected to reach high marks under a new performance review system that starts next year, according to internal communications obtained by CNBC in a recent Google all hands meeting, and in a separate presentation last week, executives presented more details of its new performance review process. Under the new system, Google estimates 6% of full time employees will fall into a low ranking category that puts them at higher risk for corrective action, no more than the old PIP versus 2% before. Simultaneously, it will be harder to achieve high marks Google projects 22% of employees will be rated with within one of the two highest categories versus 27% before. So in other words, it’s going to be easy to be considered a low ranking employee, and be put on one of those corrective action PIP plans which I’ve told you about those before. We already know what time it is, if that happens to you, and also more difficult to be considered a high level employee. As an example, in order to make the new highest rated category transformative impact. I’m sorry, this corporate buzzword transformative impact an employee must have achieved the near impossible, and contributed more than we thought. What the eff achieved the near impossible. Earlier this year, Google announced the new process for performance reviews known as Google reviews and development or grad. But CNBC recently reported that employees have complained about procedural and technical issues with grad close to the urine deadlines, making them anxious they won’t be accurately rated. Wow, you know, my Goodness me. It’s almost like this car. Any capitalism that we have in this country is rigged against the average person? I mean, no, it couldn’t be that way at all. I mean, this system is like so totally not rigged. We don’t really have crony capitalism, right. The anxiety is compounded by a wave of layoffs in the tech industry. While Google has so far avoided the widespread job cuts that have hit other tech companies like Mehta employees have grown anxious if they could be next. In a December all hands meeting on the topic, employees expressed frustration with executives who have long touted transparency, but are not providing direct answers to questions about headcount. Yeah, you know, corporate America just loves their buzzwords. They love to give a doff of the hat to certain things collaboration, innovation and togetherness, we celebrate diversity, we’re so open here. Not really, what they really are telling you is that we’ll we will go along with whatever our marketing department says is going to help us sell. And we want you to be open and transparent with us as the peon but as the feudal lords, we can pretty much do whatever the hell we want to you. Some employees believe new performance review systems might be a way for the company to reduce headcount. No Sherlock headcount has been a subject of employee concern throughout the latter part of 2022 CEO son Sundar Pichai found himself on the defensive in September, as he was forced to explain the company’s changing position after years of supercharged growth. executives said at the time, that there would be small cuts, and they didn’t rule out layoffs. Yeah, remember all that earlier this year death by 1000 cuts? Oh, we may trim a couple of people here and there, but we won’t have mass layoffs. And if you believed that, in in November, a number of employees and an all hands meeting boy, they’d be having these all hands meetings all the time, then. Well, all right. I was about to make an editorial comment there. I mean, I was about to say like these companies that want to have these, in my opinion, asinine all hands on deck cowpoke round ups, and then they want to talk about why nothing’s getting done. Probably because you’re having asinine calpak round ups all the damn time. How can anybody focus and get their actual work done? I’m just saying. In in November, a number of employees and an all hands meeting asked for clarification on executives plans around headcount, and even asked if executives mismanaged headcount, when Google grew its workforce by 24%. Year over year in q3 of 2022. Wow. As of q3, the company employed 186,779 full time employees, it also employs a similar amount of contractors. So clearly, we’re not talking about a small number of people either full time w two or contract. Recent Documents about the graph also say the company will be looking at bonuses pay inequity, and expects to spend more per capita on compensation overall, it also states the company still plans on paying within the top five to 10% of market rates, Google did not immediately respond to a request for comment. This feels very carrot and stick to me. So in my mind, what they’re saying is, if we decide to keep you, if you give us the old razzle dazzle and you perform something near impossible, you really impress us that you’ve gone above and beyond the call of duty, then you’ll get rewarded, we still plan on retaining those top people and paying them more per capita. Overall, we still want to be in the top five to 10% for the people we really want here. I’m thinking of that scene and the mummy, you know and emo tip has come back to live and he corners Binney and then he tells him like the rewards will be great, and you show them all that gold. It’s kinda like if you want to stay here and jump through these hoops and continue to do the near impossible for us, then the rewards will be great. But if you don’t, then I mean a probably going to be out on your bum in the middle of a recession. It’s just my opinion, and I could be wrong, but that’s what it seems like to me. At the company’s most recent all hands meeting on December 8, many of the top rated questions describe stress around your end performance reviews. According to audio of the meeting obtained by CNBC. The questions also suggested some employees don’t trust the company’s leadership is being transparent and how it handles headcount. Why did Google push support check in quotas to frontline managers days before the deadline one employee asked? I’ve been through a lot in Google in five plus years, but this is a new low. It seems like a lot of last minute support check ins were forced through part of cloud in order to meet a quota causing A lot of distress and anger another employee asked, with only two weeks to correct course. How is this helpful feedback? How do we prevent this from happening in the future? The support check in process is confusing, increasingly becoming a cause of stress and anxiety in Googlers, especially given the current economic situation and rumors around layoffs set another top rated employee question. Earlier this month, CNBC reported employees began receiving support check ins often associated with lower performance ratings in the final days leading up to the year and deadlines. They also said executives changed parts of the process in the final days. I know it’s been bumpy, Google’s Chief People Officer, Fiona cecconi. Think that’s how you say it eventually said briefly acknowledging the issues with grad in a recent all hands meeting. I’m really sick of the all hands meeting reference here. It’s not ideal to have support check ins occur so late in the review cycle, and we know that people need time to absorb the feedback and take action on it. And minute Ciccone adding that Googlers should have plenty of time to course correct. That’s easy for the executives to say, isn’t it? Several employees also asked executives whether they had quotas for placing people in lower performance categories in order to reduce headcount and 2023. Even though executive said they don’t have quotas work. It didn’t seem to convince employees. Well, good, good. Maybe the emperor is naked and doesn’t have any clothes on and people are starting to wake up. One question asked executives, if Google was becoming a stack ranking company like Amazon, referring to the process of using quotas to place employees in certain performance buckets, uncertainties around grad processes have been putting a lot of pressure on lower level managers to pass down information. And about performance reviews and sometimes forest conflicting items. Another high rated question stated. Yeah, I mean, look, if they want you gone, they’re going to figure out a way to get rid of you. It doesn’t matter what kind of performance review they have to give you, or what kind of charge they have to trump up against you. If they want you out, they want you out. And more than likely, you’re gone. I am not an employment attorney. If you need help from an employment attorney, then you should talk to one. But based on all my years of experience in staffing, recruiting and HR, I can just tell you, having been behind the scenes, having been on the front end of it been on the receiving end of it. And then having also been on the back end of it where it’s like, you know, Bob, the hiring manager walks in and says Tim needs to go, I can’t do this with him anymore. If management wants, you’re gone, you’re probably gone. And it is so much better to have a job loss survival plan than to get blindsided all of a sudden. On the side panel for LinkedIn, we find bank been freed out or $250 million bail, as we know apparently is going to shack up with the rents. once in a generation storm hits us. Well, it is definitely a giant pain in the neck right here at the holidays. remote workers more afraid of layoffs, micron to cut 10% of workforce startups slash holiday parties. Well, from an introvert point of view, that’s good news to me if I were working at a company and they said you know what, just stay home. We don’t want you to come in and drive up here and dress up to get drunk with your colleagues. That would be a okay by me. Hundreds of Tyson workers to exit when we click on that we find hundreds of Tyson Foods employees are expected to leave the company following its decision to close two offices in Illinois and another in South Dakota. Anonymous sources tell the Wall Street Journal. The meat supplier is shuttering the offices to consolidate its corporate workforce to its US headquarters in Springdale, Arkansas. Tyson gave employees the option to relocate But three quarters of the 500 employees in South Dakota opted against it. And more than 90% of Chicago workers also declined according to the journal. Earlier this month, PepsiCo announced that it would be laying off hundreds of workers across its beverage snacks and packaged food divisions and quote, yeah, the people out there that think layoffs will only be in the tech sector. They will only be in big tech. They’ll only be in housing and real estate and banking. Everybody else is probably going to be fine. I just don’t think so. And we’re already seeing so much evidence to the contrary of that, like normalcy bias. I’m gonna be okay. The guy down the road he might lose his job and so sad for him, but I’m probably gonna be okay. Yeah, but what if you’re not have you wargame this out? Have you thought about it? I mean, it would be a long move. Springdale, Arkansas is not terribly far from where I am and like Fayetteville springs Al that area in Northwest Arkansas, it’s really beautiful country. But I can understand if somebody lives all the way up in South Dakota or they live all the way up in Chicago. And they’re being told well, you can either follow your job to Springdale, Arkansas, if you’ve never even been there. Or you have, let’s say, a negative opinion of the South, you’re not going to pack up your stuff and go there. So it’s sort of like saying, Well, yeah, you can follow your job, but we’re going to assume that most of you probably won’t. So many shenanigans so much chicanery going around right now, whether it’s pips and performance reviews, changing metrics, telling you Yeah, you still have a job if you’re willing to relocate. Please keep your head on a swivel. Today, it is Friday, December 23. And I am so glad, like so very glad to see Friday, especially the Friday before a holiday break. I’m like Calgon take me away at this point. More on that later. Over on Yahoo Finance, we find Sheila Bair why the Fed and Powell should hit the pause button on raising rates. The former FDIC chair argues the Fed is moving too quickly on the interest rate front and why it should back off its plans to keep hiking in the new year. consumer inflation expectations hit 18 month low employee has the upper hand to demand more pay in economic environment. Yeah, in a good economic environment, or the kind of weird Omni bubble situation that we saw last year, when everybody had FOMO and Yolo. And the great resignation was in full steam. Yeah, of course, people had the upper hand. But I mean, if you think that’s going to happen in 2023, I have some oceanfront property here in the landlocked Midwest, I’d love to sell to you. And on that note, apparently, we also learn Santa Claus is North Pole home lists for over 1.1 million according to Zillow. So if that was important to you today, there you go. If you have a couple mil sitting around and you want to buy Santa Clauses home, go for it. A recession is not inevitable. According to a White House. He thought it was, huh. Yeah, that’s another one. I’ll sell you some oceanfront property. If you believe that. Hold on to your money. Jeff Bezos issues a financial warning says you might want to rethink buying things like a new automobile or a refrigerator. Hmm. Also, Robert Kiyosaki has issued a dire warning about the current pension crisis and says it could be the next global Lehman. Yeah. Now that I believe that I do believe we could so easily, we could see Enron, we could see Lehman Brothers. We could see Bear Stearns, I mean, there. Yeah. I don’t want to go off on too much of a pessimistic tangent here. But we very well could see a repeat of 2008 2009. Yeah, yeah. Again, I don’t want to go too far down that path. Over on the side panel for LinkedIn, we find vast winter storm cuts power and travel. And we’ll be talking about that momentarily. Offices shed weight loss contests. Who didn’t kind of find those creepy? I mean, isn’t that awfully invasive? And wouldn’t it also be considered discriminatory? I mean, you’re you’re essentially body shaming people at the office. I mean, what does it really care if Bob and Sally can do the jobs? You’ve hired them for? Then, but out? You know what, what they do what they eat and their own personal life? Like how does that? How does that impact you? I don’t know. It’s like corporate America just wants to have their their hands their clutches on everything. Tick tock staff wrongly access data. Imagine that retailers fear holiday shopping bust. So here’s my comment on that. There were some stores that were pretty busy, based on just going out to run some errands to pick up a few quick things that were necessity items that we needed. But it was not just wall to all people. That being said, like the grocery stores and the discount stores were the ones where you really saw the most cars in the parking lot. But your regular department stores where the items would be more expensive. No. And I have heard from other people around the country, same type of experience places that normally this close to Christmas would be jam packed with like a line practically out the door of people trying to check out with items. Not so much right now. House pass is $1.7 trillion spending package. Great. Great. Yeah. The other night when we were trying to watch February run a Family Feud. It got interrupted by the special broadcast for Zelinsky to come I’m on and thank everybody for their taxpayer money and all of that. I don’t get political on this show. So I’m not going to voice any further opinion than saying I would really have just rather seen the Family Feud. Because it’s like I’m so tired of of anybody I don’t I don’t care who it is. I’m tired of anybody showing up and asking for sweet taxpayer moolah. You know, it’s like if that money were actually going to help people, you know, when you drive through a city and you see tent cities of homeless people where you see folks living under a bridge and you’re like, we’re sending all of this money overseas, and then we’re probably going to have to bail out some giant corporation or some Wall Street asshole bankers. I’m just gonna say it. I’m in the mood to say it some Wall Street asshole bankers. You know, we can’t help people here domestically, we can’t help poor people that really need it. But you know, you’re gonna send it overseas and have somebody show up in a sweat shirt and khakis. I mean, doesn’t that kind of seem like Central Casting doesn’t it. doesn’t it kind of seem like this whole Churchill and a T shirt thing is spin of some kind mean. Seems kind of seems kind of funky to me. Musk Holt selling Tesla’s stock, the rise of contractors and tech, yeah, that’s going to happen. So sometimes when we get into recessions, companies will want to bring on contractors are 1099 workers, so they don’t have to pay any benefits. And it’s also an easier process of kicking them out the door. So if you are a full time w two employee and you are reliant on company provided benefits, you will want to really, really, really be thinking about that job loss survival plan. Bird Flu affects record egg prices great. No, the hit the hits, just keep on coming such such good and wonderful news. So especially in thinking about things like this bomb cyclone, and the insane winter storm, people being without power, and it being like, you know, five degrees outside with a negative wind chill. Normally, around this time of the year, I get out my little book about the you’ll and I read to you about the fallow time of the year, how the Earth itself goes barren. At this time of the year now we just had the winter solstice. So we actually even though it doesn’t seem like it right now we actually are going into the light half of the year where slowly but surely, imperceptibly at first, we start to get more and more daylight. We’ve already experienced that shortest day of the year on the solstice. So now, little by little minute by minute, the days actually start getting longer, we start to go into the light half of the year, even though right now in the wintertime it definitely doesn’t seem that way. That is the case. So normally I get out my book about the Yule and I talk about resting. I talk about Dolce far Niente and how beautiful and sweet it is to have some nothingness. Oh, I’m ready for some of that myself. But here’s the deal gang. I’m going to say something a little bit different this year because I am absolutely convinced that we are headed into one hell of a bad economic poop storm. Not an economist, financial planner or advisor, etc. Not an all seeing Oracle from ancient times. I don’t know precisely what’s going to happen. I cannot see around every dark corner or blind alley. I don’t know. I just based on let’s say the preponderance of evidence, common sense and having lived it before. I really feel like we’re in for due to storm. I would not want to be caught off guard by what’s coming. So I would say yes, we are going into the fallow time of the year where nature itself is resting. Nature itself has gone barren because it realizes there is a time there’s a time to reap and a time to sow. There’s a time to plant your seeds and a time to bring in your harvest. There’s a time to work hard and break a sweat. And there’s time to rest to truly rest. And I do think in the western world we get so caught up in the glory of just being busy mindless BS activities that don’t do anything. But they give us that that surge that adrenaline bump of I have to be busy I have to be occupied. I have to be doing something something something all the time. God forbid that I just stretch out in the recliner and read a good book. Just a good book, whether it’s a silly novel that, you know, you laugh that you even read it or watch a movie you’ve seen 100 times but you just love it that much. God forbid we do that. What I would say this year is I can’t tell you what to do. But if it were me, we were sitting around. Let’s let’s think about something Christmassy here. I usually say if we were having a pint at the pub, if we were around a nice bowl of hot punch, you know, we were, we were singing Christmas carols and having a little something extra alcoholic to keep us warm. And we were talking about this, I’d say, you know, I don’t think you better relax until you feel confident about your preps. Seriously. So we lost power for a little while. And Holy smokes, it does not take long for it to get cold in the house. No matter how nice and toasty, you may have had it before the power went off when it is so absurdly cold outside. With a brutal wind chill, it just doesn’t take long for the temperature inside the house to start going down and for you to start feeling very comfortable. Now I went ahead and invested in an emergency heat source, and Murphy’s Law, there you go, I was in the process of getting that emergency heat source put together so that we wouldn’t freeze. And that’s when the power came back on. Knock on wood glory be in hallelujah, I was so happy to see it. But it just reminded me like, this is why it’s so important to have some kind of plan B in life. Some people can afford a whole house generator, some people can afford, you know, the type of generator where you can at least run the TV in the refrigerator or something like that. And if you have the economic means for that, that’s awesome. But if you don’t, can you do some research to see what other options exist? Could there be some other emergency heat source that’s not dependent on electricity that you could use? Always do your own research, always look into the risks because you don’t want to burn your house down. I know sometimes people get a little overzealous with space heaters. And then the next thing you know, you’re seeing these awful stories about how somebody burn their house down at Christmas, don’t be that person, please be careful. Please be safe. Do you have enough food in the house? In the event that you weren’t able to cook anything? Do you have some canned goods? That wouldn’t taste terrible? If you needed to just pop the top and eat them right then and there? Think about these things. Yes, I want to encourage people to enjoy that sweetness of doing nothing the time to rest. Because I really think we’re going to be up to our eyeballs in stuff. Come 2023 I don’t know what I don’t know exactly what to expect. And exactly when the full brunt of the Poopoo is going to hit the fan and spray all over all of us. I don’t know. But I just think it’s going to be bad. And I think that even those of us who do who are able to do 1099 work, we carry our own benefits. We don’t need anything from an employer per se. I mean even some of the contract and temp assignments have dried up. It’s it may very well be a year of having to call and scrape and do what you can to make enough money. In that regard, having some preps in place can also help because if you have a week or two, that’s pretty lean on what you’re bringing in with your take home pay, maybe you can get into some emergency food that you’ve squirreled away, maybe you can have something in place as a hedge against inflation. But I will tell you having having some food and water put back having an emergency heat source or just something that you can rely on hell, even just having extra blankets, you know, we also have a few of those. They look like tin foil, but they’re not you probably have seen the material before those emergency blankets that are silver in color have some of those, and plenty of quilts. I mean, I’ve also heard really good things a friend of mine who’s an ex army guy told me that one of the best investments he ever made was a modification sleeping bag, so that you can get all the way in zip yourself up from the inside and everything’s covered because you know, we lose so much heat through our head and our feet that if everything is in there and you’re all mummified in the sleeping bag, it really helps to retain that body heat better. Do the research, figure out what would be a good investment for you. But it is so nice. You hope then an emergency doesn’t happen. You hope that something like this bomb cyclone doesn’t come and knock your power out or leave you without resources especially during the holidays. What a particularly crappy time for all of this to happen. But it can definitely happen. It really, really can. And something else that I want to say you know I had to go earlier to the cardiac unit, not an emergency. Thank God just for some testing as I am still dealing with the ramifications of the long haul Rona. Do not take your health for granted. If you are sitting here listening to this broadcast today and you do not have any kind of health With problems, you better think whatever you believe in yourself, the universe, a god or goddess of some kind, whatever it is, whatever your belief system is, you better be damn good and grateful because at any point in time, you know, something can happen. Something can come flying out of the unknown and the unexpected. That’s not a good development and you have to deal with it. medical tests are not cheap, even with insurance. So if you’re in good health, be so grateful for it. This is another reason I think why being prepared is so important because if you do have a situation where it’s like, okay, I’m sick, and I can’t work for a little while or I’m, I need to take this break because I’m tired, I’m burnt out, I need to convalesce some more, whatever your situation may be. Having your preps in place, you’ve got food in the house, you have water, you have everything covered in the event of a grid down situation where you lose power, you have a little bit of extra money squirreled away so that in case you want to take a couple of weeks off, or in case, maybe you don’t really want to but the economy is telling you that you need to because you can’t find anything. You have that money set back in savings, and you know that you’re going to be okay. You do sleep easier at night, knowing that you have some preparations made you’ve thought ahead, you’ve planned ahead. And you can do that adapt, improvise and overcome. So while I typically tell you make sure you get in some good rest. Yeah, I think this year, it needs to be a little bit different. If we were if we were around caroling and drinking some hot punch to stay warm, I’d say you know if it were me, I think I’d want to build in some pockets of time to rest and have that sweetness of doing nothing. punctuated by making sure that my preps were in place so that I knew whatever kind of poopoo 2023 might throw in my direction I would feel capable of handling it. On that note, I will be on hiatus. The broadcast will not be broadcasting until Tuesday, January 3, I’m going to take my own advice. I’m going to look for gaps in my preps and I’m going to rest and I’m going to really enjoy some Dolce far Niete when I can. So no broadcast next week, but I will be back in the saddle bringing you the news you can use and doing what I can to try to help out Tuesday, January 3. In the meantime, have a happy holiday. Whatever you celebrate whatever is important to you this time of the year. I hope that you are safe and happy and healthy. I’m so grateful for each and every one of you. I’m so grateful and happy for anytime that someone pings me and says this episode really helped me or I shared some episodes with a friend who needed to wake up and they finally get it now. Thank you. Bless you all. Hugs and kisses to all of you. I will see you very soon. Take care. Happy holidays. Stay safe, stay sane, and I will see you in the new year.