19 Nov Saturday Broadcast 25
Key topics:
✔️ ICYMI news, 11/14 – 11/18.
✔️ More six-figure earners are shopping at Walmart because they have to. We’re also finally allowed to know that credit card debt is going through the roof.
✔️Are there people who game the system and lie? Of course. But not everyone does that. IMO, any boss who feels like Covid is just a lame excuse to stay home can go straight to hell.
✔️Is Lord Elon going to learn some big lesson from people walking out of Twitter? Nope. I think this is all about weeding out people who are non-compliant.
Yes, I sound like a frog with a 2 ciggy pack a day habit. This too shall pass. 🐸🚬
Programming note: I will be taking a podcasting break next week. I hope you all have a wonderful & safe Thanksgiving!
Links I mention:
https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/how-tight-is-the-labor-market-6083754/
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/musk-tells-twitter-staff-opt-115236558.html
https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/amazon-offering-voluntary-buyouts-5503828/
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-household-debt-jumps-most-160000475.html
https://www.businessinsider.com/call-in-sick-covid-get-paid-leave-bosses-excuse-2022-11
Need more? Email me: https://causeyconsultingllc.com/contact-causey/
Siren courtesy of Pixabay.
Transcription by Otter.ai. Please forgive any typos!
Hello, Hello, and thanks for tuning in. Today it is Monday, November 14. And yes, I am aware that I sound like a toad or someone who smokes multiple packs of cigarettes all day, every day. Or maybe I’m a toad that’s been hanging out smoking inside a casino. This has just been like a roller coaster. From Hell, it all kicked off with the viral food poisoning, then having to go to the hospital being exposed to some unhappy germs in there. I’ll leave it at that. So I’m on the road to recovery. I just don’t sound very great at the moment. on Yahoo Finance today, we have headlines such as stocks and lower snap last week’s winning streak. US stocks ended Monday lower as Wall Street waited for another round of earnings and key data from the retail sector. Amazon to layoff 10,000 workers as soon as this week. Feds housing dilemma pairing demand without killing supply. Hmm. I don’t know that we’re gonna see a soft landing there either. Retailers promote discounts and deals ahead of Black Friday. I’m not really sure how that’s gonna pan out either because there are so few people that have money to spend on holiday items. Over on the side panel for LinkedIn, we find Amazon poised to cut 10,000 jobs according to The New York Times. And then right underneath it. Not kidding. Is now a good time to quit your job. Biden student debt really flocked Musk’s trial over Tesla pay begins insurgency dropping out of the workforce. New York pay law brings comparison Kirk $1 billion missing in FTX collapse, Google’s record $392 million privacy fine. When we click on Is now a good time to quit your job right underneath Amazon’s announcement of layoff, we find it’s easy to get caught up in a job you’ve become really good at and accustomed to, though it may not boost your career. And given all of the economic volatility. It’s also a daunting time to think about leaving a comfortable role for something more challenging. So why would you consider a change? Decision strategist Annie duke says not taking risks that could accelerate your career can keep you from achieving ultimate success, and even happiness and quote, I mean, generally speaking, yeah. There there are people that have recession babies, there are people who start companies who go out on a whim during terrible economic conditions, and they make it is that everyone? No. Are there people who change jobs or maybe even completely change careers during an economic downturn? And then wind up happier than they’ve ever been? And maybe even richer than they’ve ever been? Of course there are. Are those people the exception? Or are they the rule? That’s what I would say. If you’re thinking about making a change, you’re really rolling the dice because we just don’t know what’s about to happen in the economy and how profound it will get, how long will it last? So is giving up the security that you have worth it? What if you don’t have security? What if you know that your company is about to conduct a layoff and you want to get the hell out of dodge before that happens? Everyone listening is going to have such a different circumstance, I cannot tell you what to do. Speaking solely for myself, I would really, really want to do a cost benefit analysis to see if it made sense or didn’t. Should I Stay or Should I Go? I think it’s important to make that decision before you make the leap. Today it is Tuesday, November 15. on CNBC we have headlines such as crypto.com Customers worry it could follow FTX as ce o tries to reassure them, everything’s fine. You know, the more that we get these public reassurances that everything’s fine, the more I think it’s probably not. s&p 500 closes higher after another lighter than expected inflation report, NASDAQ jumps 1.4% household debt soars at fastest pace in 15 years as credit card use surges. Fed report says, oh, but remember people are doing great. They went into the pandemic flush with cash. They had all this money in savings. People took their STEMI checks and they were totally responsible with what they did. In fact, they’re still living off of stimulus money from 2020 in grandma’s basement. Inflation is a baiting people are not financing their groceries. People are fine. Hmm. Something changed there, didn’t it? Russian missiles cross into Poland during strike on Ukraine US official tells AP, will that be the thing that sets off this tinderbox? I hope not. I pray not, but we really don’t know. Over on Yahoo Finance we find stocks pair some gains after cool inflation data amid geopolitical angst. Big tech layoffs, not a sign of an impending recession. Goldman says, Sure, I can’t even read that one with a straight face. FTX creditors could be more than 1 million. Wow. Walmart says more 100k plus dollar income households shopping with us. Well, yeah, because contrary to the hopium and hotter BS we’ve gotten for so long, people are not doing great. Walmart CFO on inflation. I can’t call a peak yet. Yeah, I can’t either. I don’t think we’re there yet. On the side panel for LinkedIn, we find Apple says it’s still hiring slowly. Credit card and mortgage debt surges. How tight is the labor market protocol to close news website? Walmart’s $3.1 billion opioid settlement tech companies shed office space. When we click on how tight is the labor market, we find LinkedIn is new measure of labor market tightness shows there was about one job opening for every person actively searching for work on the platform in October. That’s a lower ratio than the Labor Department’s preferred measure, which indicates there were 1.9 job openings per unemployed person. But still tighter than the pre pandemic average. The LinkedIn data suggests that the labor market remains strong despite economic uncertainty and rising interest rates. Well, if you ask me both of those stats are full of hot air, no one from the Labor Department’s their preferred measure that’s still still trying to convince us that there are two legitimate open jobs for every one unemployed person. Yeah. It’s not a wonder that’s their preferred measure. Because again, you know, the Fed has not been shy and saying they want to crash the labor market. They want to see unemployment go up, and then the people that are allowed to keep their jobs, their wages are going to stagnate. But do I think there’s even if we cut it in half, do I think that there’s one legitimate open job for every one unemployed person? No, not that’s going to pay a living wage and have good benefits? I don’t. Sorry. Based on what I’m seeing a lot of what’s out there. In terms of these sorts of jobs that are supposedly in just in a plethora, maybe so for Gen, labor, hospitality, fast food, the same types of industries that I tell you week after week, historically have high churn and burn rates anyway, there probably are still yet a ton of fast food places where you can go and get hired today. I’m sure that’s probably the case. In terms of white collar or knowledge work, it’s still the more specialized niche roles where no, you can’t just pick someone up off the street and say, hey, I can plug you into this job today. Just being real with you. Now in this LinkedIn article, they also say, get ready for the week by seeing what’s coming up Tuesday, November 15. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the monthly producer price index, different from the Consumer Price Index, which landed last week. The report measures inflation based on costs to those who make the products, not those who consume them. On Wednesday, November 16, the US Census Bureau will release its monthly retail sales report for October. The report is an indicator of consumer spending and general economic activity. On Thursday, the US Department of Labor will will release initial jobless claims for the previous week. The report, a proxy for layoffs tracks the number of people filing for unemployment benefits. Will that be anything even close to accurate I mean, also on Thursday, the US Census Bureau will release the annualized number of new construction single family homes in October. On Friday, the National Association of REALTORS will release the annualized number of existing homes that were sold in October. The report is an indicator of housing market strength. In other words, I think kind of what they’re telling us here is buckled the hell up because we’re about to start to know, not know completely, but we’re about to start to know. Ooh, maybe there’s trouble in paradise. Today it is Wednesday, November 16. on Yahoo Finance we find stocks sync as retail sales beat target earnings miss. US stocks fell in a lackluster session Wednesday as Wall Street weighed and earnings warning from retail Bellwether target against to a strong government retail sales report, target earnings missed by a mile stock tanks. Homebuyers race to capture recent drop in mortgage rates. Really? Does that match with what you’re seeing in your part of the country because it doesn’t really match what I’m seeing here. In fact, earlier today, there was a real estate agent who called me out of nowhere, and was like, Oh, hey, all buddy, old pal. Anything that I can show you anything on the market, you might want to go and take a look at and it’s like, no. First of all, I’m still trying to get over the creeping crud. I don’t want to go anywhere. And other than medical appointments, I haven’t been anywhere. That’s first of all. Second of all, there’s not anything listed. That’s worth a dime in my mind. There’s nothing in this part of the Midwest right now that’s actively for sale that I would want to go take a look at nada zip. Now, is that completely uncommon for the holiday season? No, not really, because who wants strangers? traipsing through the house that Thanksgiving or Christmas? So that’s not unusual. But I think this does show how the tide has turned. Because last year these realtors who thought that their poopoo didn’t stink. And unless you were going to show up and offer more than asking with a bouquet of roses and a steak dinner. They didn’t even want to talk to you. And now someone’s cold calling me essentially like, hey, is there anything you want to go look at? Anything you want to see up close? And I was like, no. The only thing I want to see up close is my bed. The back of my eyelids and my bed. Okay, thanks. We also find Musk tells Twitter staff opt in for intensity or take severance. In that we read Elon Musk sent a message to Twitter Inc, staff telling them they had until Thursday to decide whether they wanted to stay on at the company to work long hours at high intensity or take a severance package of three months pay. Musk told Twitter employees that anyone who had not clicked on a link confirming you want to be part of the new Twitter by Thursday evening, New York time would be considered to have quit. long pause there. And if you don’t think that other companies and I’m not just talking about tech companies, if you don’t think that other companies won’t follow Lord Ilan ZZ lead. I don’t know what to tell you. Over on the side panel for LinkedIn, we find Amazon begins wide layoffs. Target sees families reining it in? Well, yeah, of course, more people are starting businesses, construction costs to ease in 2024. New York City taxis raise fares after decade. I don’t think it’s going to shape up to be a very fun and exciting holiday season in terms of money. A lot of people are feeling the pinch, folks are doing whatever they have to just to survive. Then on top of that, you have this whenever they’re calling it a triple Demmick of COVID, flu and RSV. I don’t want to sound like a fear monger about health related things. Believe me, I know that after quarantine, a lot of folks just want to get back out there. They want to travel, they want to see the relatives that maybe they’ve missed out on and I get that it’s a very human impulse. I can’t tell you what to do. The most I will say is please be careful. Do not think that just because the mayors of the cities want us to cross pollinate and they want you back but unseeded the cube farm, it doesn’t mean that these illnesses have just magically gone underground, and that there’s just no possible way that you could catch influenza or COVID Right now, because let me assure you, those viruses are still very much alive and well. I wish they weren’t but they are. Today, it is Thursday, November 17. It seems a little surreal to say that we are one week out from Thanksgiving. That doesn’t even seem possible to me. This month has really been a blur because I’ve been sick for the entire month of November and it completely sucks. It’s like no, this is my time. This is my time of the year. I love this period of time. It’s wonderful to be able to get under a fuzzy blanket and read a good book or watch a good movie, watch some football just enjoy and chill, have that opportunity to really like decompress and de stress and yet like no. On top of that we had, I don’t know maybe two or three days of like enjoyable sweater weather. And then we got plunged into winter. Like to give you an example it’s supposed to snow tomorrow. And I think the high is only going to be 34 So I mean, no wonder everybody’s sick. At one point it was 80 and then the next day it was like 30. So you know that’s not good for flu and allergies and all that stuff. Over on Yahoo Finance Today we find stocks fall as busy day of Fed speak, dampens hopes of policy shift. US stocks extended their downtrend Thursday is optimism around easing inflation and a Federal Reserve policy shift waned, while Wall Street parse through a motley of corporate earnings. Legal crypto expert on FTX. This really is a fraud first. Do you think so? GM raises 2022 profit guidance now sees EVs profitable by 2025. Oh, okay. Kohl’s is a business whose time has passed. That’s kind of depressing, because I remember when I worked outside the home, Kohl’s was always a place that I would hit up, especially like if they were having a sale could hit one of the clearance racks. That was always a pretty decent place to buy work related clothing. And now they’re saying it’s a business whose time has passed. So I guess they’re going the way of Sears and some of the other retailers. Over on the side panel for LinkedIn. We find mortgage rates drop most since 1981. Amazon offering voluntary buyouts Musk hands Twitter workers ultimatum? Yeah, I think let me on the East Coast. Yeah, it’s after five already. So at this point, I guess people have had to sign on the dotted line as to whether or not they’re going to accept his situation their ex Amazon employees talk layoffs. So when we click on Amazon offering voluntary buyouts because this seems to be a trend, right, you either go along, you do what you’re told to do, or we’ll give you a severance check, and then you can get the hell out. We click on that we find some Amazon employees were offered voluntary severance packages this week as the E commerce giant seeks ways to rein in costs. CNBC reports. The voluntary buyouts which are thus far concentrated in human resources and employee services are in addition to previously announced layoffs that are expected to be the largest in the company’s 28 year history and affect some 10,000 staffers. Employees have until November 29 to accept the buyouts which consists of a lump sum payment, amounting to three months of wages an additional week salary for every six months of tenure and weekly Cobra stipends and quote. Yeah, you know, I predicted earlier that as we see more human resources and recruiting departments getting thinned out, you’ll see more of those people setting out a shingle, they’ll call themselves a coach or an advisor, they’ll offer to redo your resume. Times are gonna get tight. Okay, and they’re gonna get tough. I wish I could say otherwise. I wish that I saw some pot of gold at the end of the rainbow here, but I really don’t not yet anyway. Today it is Friday, November 18. It is most assuredly another TGIF kind of Friday. Not a doubt about it. I’m feeling somewhat better. Not good just yet, but better. I no longer feel like I am knocking at death’s door. So I guess that’s a good thing. on CNBC, we have headlines today such as after Twitter plan to close offices for the day. Elon Musk asks engineers to come in hashtag rip, Twitter is trending. Here’s how to download your Twitter archive. Like it even matters that much. Who again, I asked, Who is still on Twitter, who still even cares about Twitter as a platform? Nevertheless, I know I’m supposed to get on here and say, Oh, these people that are refusing to RTO they’re really going to stick it to Elon Musk. It’s really going to teach him a big lesson. No, it’s not. This is about compliance. This is like Zuckerberg saying if you no longer want to be here, you can self select out the door and that’s fine with me. See, in my opinion, that’s where all of this is actually going. It’s not about a Power to the People movement. It’s about you can self select out. If you are not going to be compliant. If you are not going to sit down Hush your mouth and do what you’re told. Then we don’t want you here. If you do not think that other companies will follow suit. I don’t know what to tell you. Carvana lays off 1500 employees following stock freefall, s&p 500 climbs in the final hour of trade Eating Dow jumps more than 150 points. Again, I asked how is that impacting your life? Did you notice any big improvement in your life today because of that? I mean, I didn’t. buyers need a six figure income to afford a typical home report finds? Well, yeah, that that should come as a surprise to no one. On that note, a little disturbing headline earlier this week, US household debt jumps most since 2008, even as credit card rates surge. So there are no shortage of individuals at this point making the comparison between what it looked like in 2008, kind of leading up to the Great Recession slash global financial crisis and what it looks like now. I hope things don’t go in that direction, truly. But I think we’re already in a recession. How low will it go? How tough will times get? I don’t know. I really don’t know. Over on the side panel for LinkedIn, we find mass resignations hit Twitter, over hiring hurts white collar staff. Amazon job cuts to drag into 2023 beer sales banned at World Cup. Home sales continued dramatic plunge. Well, yeah. And on that note, a couple of houses back on the market in my area one sold at the end of January, the other sold in the middle of February. And already that people want rid of them. In one case, based on how many houses have come up for sale in this particular area. I think there must be something going on out there. I don’t know if it’s crime. I don’t know if it’s weird rednecks. I don’t I don’t know what’s going on. But something is clearly happening. That’s causing most people to want to leave. And, you know, this is something that I’ve seen over and over again, during the FOMO and the Yolo. It seemed like the people who were listing houses, it was never just like your garden variety situation. We need to upscale or downscale, want to get closer to the grandkids need to get closer to elderly parents need to relocate for work purposes. It was like none of that. Everything was a problem child house, bad, unsafe, crime filled area. House about to fall apart. Tons of deferred maintenance. nobody seemed to care anymore. And it’s like well, who who wants to buy that stuff, especially at a grossly inflated price? Not me. Now, one thing that I want to say, because we are kind of living in this tumultuous time of people having it out over whether they’re going to continue working from home, whether they’re going to RTO Oh, and then by the way US household debt is skyrocketing, just like it did at the beginning of the last great recession. So this is another reason why I am suspicious of this idea that there’s just going to be a mass walkout across the country and that people are going to in droves. Resign and say we’re not going to work unless we can do it remotely. There’s no such thing as a free lunch, someone’s going to have to be able to pay their bills, while they continue to look for another remote opportunity. You know, I mean, I hate to be the bearer of bad news there, but Hello. So here we are, in the midst of this, whatever they’re calling it, triple triple Dimick of RSV, flu, and COVID this crap is not a joke. You know, it’s really not. I saw an article on Business Insider earlier this week that made my blood boil. And it’s titled bosses are done with the COVID excuse. And it means calling out sick is getting harder. Mm hmm. Right. Yeah. So see, this is another thing that I don’t miss about being crammed into a cube farm. No matter where I work, there were always people that would come to work sick. It seemed like the vast majority of them had young kids that were like human petri dishes. And after going through this experience, I wouldn’t wish it on anyone. And I understand that these mayors want people to cross pollinate, go back downtown, start eating in the restaurants again start shopping in the shops you need to rub shoulders you need to come home back to the cube farm because that’s what corporate America wants. reminds me so much of Bill Hicks is routine about government approved rock and roll. were rock stars that do Pepsi Cola commercials, in that what you want government approved rock and roll. We’re rock stars and we love George Bush. No, you want to stand next to Dan Quayle at a rock concert? Hey, we might be out till 11 tonight. Exactly, yeah. Okay. So we’re supposed to all go back and cross pollinate and rub shoulders and COVID is supposed to be over with, but it is not. Let me tell you. It has been quite some time, if ever, that I have been so sick. I have been sick for the entirety of November. And I am only just now getting to the point where I feel like maybe there’s light at the end of the tunnel. And it’s not the light of an oncoming train. At least that’s what I hope. So I cannot imagine somebody saying to me, Well, you need to come on back to the office. We don’t care if you’re still contagious. We don’t care if you still need to be quarantining, like you’re either going to come the hell back to this office, or we’re going to fire you. I can’t imagine being placed in that position and how awful that must be. Or working for some a hole that feels like COVID is just an excuse. Really, I have never experienced anything quite like this. When I was a kid, I had double pneumonia. And I was bad sick for weeks. And that was horrible. Some years later, I had a bad case of bronchitis that turned into bronchial pneumonia. And I was quite sick with that. Along about 2003 or 2004 I got sick with influenza. And that was truly heinous. i At that point in time, that was the closest in my adult life that I felt like I had been to death until this happened. The viral food poisoning was bad. That’s something else I would not wish on my worst enemy. You know, but I told you that going to the hospital was quite depressing. The hospital that I went to for that experience. It looked like the floors had not been properly cleaned or buffed in years. I mean, everything just had like a coating of dirt and neglect on it. So if I had to hazard a guess of where I caught the Rhona oh and strep throat to Yeah, as if the ronin wasn’t bad enough having strep throat on top of it that was really freaking lousy. that would that would be my best guess as to probably where I got it. I think my immune system was already in the 12 A having to deal with the viral food poisoning and then getting sick with the Rona and the strep at the same time. What a nightmare. But I’m telling you I didn’t think that I would ever feel as bad again as I did when I had that influenza. Holy karo I thought I was going to die many times, many times. And And just when you would think that, you know, maybe your symptoms were going to abate maybe you were going to start to turn the corner, then some new set of symptoms would come up. And it’s like oh, okay, great. Well, all of a sudden I have AFib Oh, okay, great. All of a sudden, I can’t breathe anymore. All of a sudden I’m projectile vomiting. It was horrible. This, this has honestly been a living hell. So when I see some idiot as headline about a COVID Excuse, you know, it makes me want to just throw this microphone through the wall like are there people that game the system? Of course, always, in any situation in any walk of life, you’re going to have people that want to run a scam or want to run a con. Twas ever thus. Are there people that want to work from home because they’re lazy and unmotivated? And they essentially want to get paid for doing nothing or for sitting and watching Netflix. Of course there are doesn’t mean everybody’s that way. Same thing with people that are calling in. Are some of them faking it, because they want to go to the beach somewhere probably doesn’t mean all of them are. And I know I sure as hell would not want to go into a cube farm with someone teeming with influenza, or COVID, or RSV, or strep. And be at death’s door. I mean. But here we go. This is how corporate America thinks. This is how Lord Elon thinks you better come back balls to the walls and be ready to work hard or or leave. You come in Do you work more than 40 hours at a breakneck pace? to please me, or you leave? Look, I think that one of the reasons why you have these dudes, by and large, let’s face it, it’s dudes that want to fanboy out about Elon Musk is because they have some kind of, it’s almost like pain is envy. Elon is Lord Elon is coming up in here doing what we wish we could do. We wish that we could be the patroon or the feudal lord and command all the peons to come back until the soil, you better sit down and shut up like a good little surf. Or there’s the door. Yes, of course, you have freedom of choice. You can choose to be abused, or you can choose to leave. Well, what the hell kind of choice is that in the middle of economic uncertainty? Who wants to go through a job loss right now? Again, I know that from a staffing and recruiting perspective, I’m supposed to get on this podcast episode, and hype everybody up, oh, this is going to be a big change. All these people are going to resign, Lord Elon is going to look like a complete fool. And hahaha, No, he doesn’t care. He is trying to weed out people that are not compliant. That’s what it all boils down to. If I can make any editorial comment here, it’s really please take care of yourself. You know, having been faced with my own mortality, more than once this month, it just really drove home to me. Yes, of course, meaningful work is important. Making money is important to again, I dread to know even with insurance, how much my hospital bills will be from from this ordeal. So you have to have money in order to function in this society. But man, it it doesn’t matter nearly as much. If you feel like you’re fixing to die. Please, please take care of yourself. You know, if you find that you’re in an environment where your boss doesn’t think that COVID still exists, and they’re being a real top asshole to you. Do you have other options? I cannot tell you what to do. I’m not gonna say go in there and quit. You may need that job. And you may need that money. The most that I can say is if it were me, I would want to have some sort of plan B. Because what if you get sick? You know, these viruses and bacterial infections. They don’t wear a name tag. Hello, you can be anywhere and all of a sudden realize, Oh God, I think something bad has befallen me. Do what you need to do to stay safe. Please, please, please, please. On that note, stay safe, stay sane. Take good care of yourself. And I will see you in the next episode.
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