14 Nov “…as if they didn’t really want to hire anyone”
If you’re a frequent reader of this blog or my posts on Medium or you listen to the podcast regularly, none of what LI is reporting should be a surprise to you.
“Job seekers wish they started sooner
By Cate Chapman, Editor at LinkedIn News
Job switchers, like those trying to sell their homes, may be starting to feel like their ship has sailed. The latest Harris Poll shows more than 70% of Americans looking for a new role say that it’s more difficult than they expected. In fact, 72% say companies are ignoring applications and failing to schedule interviews — as if they didn’t really want to hire anyone. Experts say staffing decisions are likely stalling in the face of rising interest rates, even amid persistent tightness in the labor market.”
This is one reason why I felt it was important to publish the episode, “‘Cut corners somewhere or try to pick up a part-time job‘ 😣” We’ve heard 🦜 LABOR SHORTAGE, LABOR SHORTAGE so many flippin’ times that many people may think they can, indeed, just go grab 3 or 4 different jobs and/or side hustles to make ends meet. What if that’s not an option? I’ve said many times before that I do not think we have an unemployment rate of 3.7% and I also don’t believe there are 2 legitimate open jobs for every 1 unemployed person. Nor do I think all these people are supposedly flush with cash in Gran’s basement.
In spite of the various bots, trolls, shills, and mansplainers who have wanted to argue with me, I think:
- Unemployment is higher than what we’re being told and will be higher than 5.5% when the poop really hits the fan.
- People are not flush with cash and are not living in Gran’s basement off of 2020 stimulus checks.
- Inflation is higher than 8.1%.
- There are not 2 legit open jobs for every 1 unemployed person.
- People DO want to work. Some of them are getting absolutely steamrolled by crappy employers.
- Some companies put a Help Wanted sign in the window after they took a PPP loan and that sign has never come down.
- Some job postings are evergreen – they stay up forever and the manager is not gonna actually hire anyone unless s/he can find Tony Stark for pennies on the dollar.
- In my experience, most of the open roles that companies truly want to hire for are specialized, niche positions and not gen labor or non-specialized positions.
Bloomberg recently published:
“It’s Getting Harder to Switch Jobs as Labor Market Shows Cracks
A new study from the Harris Poll shows workers regret not starting their searches sooner as leverage moves away from employees.”
In this article, we read:
“More than a third of employed Americans are looking to change roles, according to the Harris Poll. Yet about 72% of job seekers say that companies are acting like they don’t want to hire anyone, since they’re ignoring applications and not scheduling interviews.
About two-thirds of those looking for a new job say they regret not starting the search sooner. A similar percentage think it would have been easier to change roles a year or two ago.”
Sounds like the housing market, n’est-ce pas? Sellers now trying to get Summer 2021 prices aren’t finding the takers.
“But, but, this is not 2008! Mortgage companies are not giving out loans willy-nilly like they did back then.”
Hmm. Perhaps not but there’s still chicanery that can happen behind the scenes. I’ve heard more than a few whispers of people with too high a DTI (debt to income) ratio still being approved for a loan even though one slight hiccup in life could ruin their ability to make the house payment. But yeah, sure, keep preaching this is not 2008 to everyone to give some false confidence.
Just as the pendulum will swing away from being an extreme sellers’ market with buyers willing to waive inspections, overbid, offer based on photos without even going to the house, etc., this will happen with the job market as well. It’s only a matter of time.
This is one of the reasons why I have repeatedly said that job seekers should try to gain as much from The Great Resignation as possible – because the day will come when the market changes. This is not to say I believe the landscape of work will return to its previous pre-Covid iteration. No, no, no. I think for most office workers, the genie is out of the bottle and the idea of long commutes, sitting in a Cube Farm, and staring at the clock waiting to go home is anathema. Many companies will continue to embrace the idea that work can happen from anywhere and at any time as long as it’s done well and on deadline.
But just as the market can’t sustain obscene real estate prices, I don’t think the job market will remain so heavily candidate-driven forever either. In the event of a recession, I think we will see the job market change much faster than if we don’t have a recession. To return to my 2008 comparison, if you had a job you could even halfway tolerate at that time, you did whatever you had to do to keep it. The fear of being unemployed and having no options was palpable. Presently, the market is rewarding job hoppers much more so than job stayers. In a recession, we will see that change.
–https://causeyconsultingllc.com/2022/04/04/when-the-pendulum-swings/ -Published on April 4th of this year
Back when most people in the staffing & recruiting industry were still giving out hopium about how The Great Resignation was gonna last forever, I was here warning you that it was not.
As I’ve said many times before: IMO, if you wait to be “officially” told something, you’ve waited too late.
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