Saturday Broadcast 23

Saturday Broadcast 23

Key topics:

✔️ ICYMI news, 10/31 – 11/4.
✔️ So… wait a minute. Is it a buyout for “underperforming” people or is it just an attempt to get rid of workers 55+? Let’s be real about things.
✔️A 3.7% unemployment rate? 😆 OK, sure.
✔️On Monday – Twitter layoffs are just a rumor. By Friday – they are a reality. Yet another reason why I advocate for critical thinking and common sense over listening to talking heads.
✔️The economists who said we wouldn’t see mass layoffs in Q4… how are their predictions looking now?

Links I mention:

Need more? Email me:
Siren courtesy of Pixabay.


Transcription by  Please forgive any typos!

Hello, Hello, and thanks for tuning in. Today is Monday, October 31. Happy Halloween, before I get into today’s headlines, thoughts about the job market, the Fed, whatever kind of nonsense is brewed up today, I just want to reflect briefly on the significance of this time of the year. I think sometimes we tend to be cocky about how much more advanced or supposedly advanced we are in modern times, versus ancient times. I think it really depends on the subject matter. I think to some degree, people who lived off the land generations ago, were so much more connected, not only to the Earth itself, but to the passing of time and the changing of seasons. I think they really respected the Wheel of the Year, a lot more than we do. Maybe that’s catching up to us now, I don’t know, I really, really hope that we don’t see the shortages and the crises that are being predicted. But you just don’t know. And so I think this Halloween, more than ever, it’s really important to take stock of what you have going on. Do you have money in the bank and food in the larder, because for the ancients, Halloween or the Samhain was really a time when they did that. It was sort of the last chance express to do what you needed to do to prepare for the winter. Tomorrow begins November, for a lot of places around the country around not only this country, but around Europe, too. And Northern Hemisphere, countries, we’re going into the cold part of the year. So we’re not only decidedly into the dark half of the air, we’re also going into the cold part of the year. And this was the opportunity to process any animals that were not going to be kept over the winter, they were going to be preserved and used as meat to gather in the last bit of harvest, if you still had any. Get things into the root cellar, get things preserved, be ready for whatever harsh conditions the winter might bring. Again, because we’re accustomed to going into supermarkets and grocery stores, and we can have things that are out of season, without any difficulty, we’ve gotten a bit spoiled. But here’s the thing, not so much anymore, with supply chain issues and inflation. And then hearing horror stories of people from around the country getting produce and it spoils almost immediately. Or they open a jug of milk even though it’s in date, it smells sour. I’ve had some bad experiences as well from different stores that I’ve just decided not to shop in anymore because they’re not trustworthy. We may very well ourselves in the modern world have to get back to some of these ancient ways. So I’m going to ask you, I can’t tell you what to do. But I will ask you very pointedly Do you feel like you’re prepared for the winter? Do you have money in the bank and food in the larder Do you feel like you’ve done what needs to be done to be prepared. If not, this is the opportunity to do that. While there is still time. Embrace it. Over on CNBC today, we have headlines such as Home Builders say the new year could be ugly as buyers pull back. Another interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve is on the way, here’s how it may affect you. Well, it’s definitely going to affect me by keeping me on the sidelines. As Orlando miner said in that great video, sit it out with purpose. Stay on the sidelines, not just waiting and being passive and crying in your coffee, but sit it out with purpose. Get yourself in as good of shape as you can so that when the bargains appear you’re ready to go. I kind of feel like that’s about the best that most people can do right now. Unless you are in an emergency and you have a very, very strong compelling reason to get off the sidelines. I’m not I’m really not sure what else you could do other than sitting it out with purpose. We also see stocks slip on Monday as dow looks to close out its best month since 1976. The market should rally this time of year even as tech struggles and new leaders emerge. Over on Yahoo Finance it’s a similar scene. Stocks fall to start busy week but in October with gains best month for Dow since 1976. Why October’s stock market rally is on shaky ground. younger Americans seem fixated on tying financial issues to President Biden hmm you ever heard the old phrase is the economy stupid wonder why I wonder if that might have something to do with it. Now when we scroll down a little further, we find another little interesting tidbit. FEMA rule gives investors an opportunity to swoop in on Florida real estate date. Wow, isn’t that a shocker? Meanwhile, earlier today on and also surviving Jared a Brock published a fantastic article titled, this isn’t a real estate crash. It’s an engineered deflation so corporations can buy your home and rent trap you forever. Hmm. I’m sure that these two things are not unrelated. On the side panel for LinkedIn news, we find Musk denies imminent Twitter layoffs, which makes me kind of think that there probably will be Twitter layoffs. I you know, that kind of seems to be the case, the more that they come out and say, Oh, no, this could never happen, the more likely it seems to be that it will happen. car prices are decelerating dot dot dot slowly. Some firms try to avoid New York City pay law, I’m sure who could be surprised by that. Ford offers underperformers severance. Hmm. So let’s click on that because in the last Saturday broadcast, I talked about the headline Chrysler and Jeep parent still Lantis offering buyouts to some US salaried employees. And in that article, we learned that the employees had to be 55 years old and have been with the company for 10 years or have 30 years of service and have a pension. Okay, so we clicked on this on LinkedIn and we find underperforming white collar workers at Ford will be offered severance pay or asked to take part in a performance enhancement plan reports the Wall Street Journal citing an internal company email, I’ve been in long enough to say a pip by any other name, a performance improvement plan, a performance enhancement plan. So I guess now we’re going to instead of calling it a pip we’re gonna call it a pip. Twas ever thus Okay, he thought he should though it’s the same thing. The move is designed to give Ford managers a simplified way to tackle low performance with employees not interested in the four to six week training plan, an easy exit route. To qualify employees must have been with the company for eight years and show a performance decline. It comes months after Ford announced plans to cut 1000s of employees as it competes with the likes of Tesla in the Evie field, Jeep and Chrysler parent company still antas has made a similar move offering long term employees buyout offers as it looks to make cuts and pivot to electric vehicles. So I mean, which is it? Or is there some implication here, which I suspect is the truth? Is there some implication here that if you’ve been with the company for a long time, you’ve automatically let yourself go? Or if you’re over the age of 55, you’re automatically over the hill? I mean, to me, that’s very scary, because I know people in their you know, suppose it twilight years that could work circles around people that are like a quarter of their age. Something in this situation stinks. To me, I just don’t completely believe it. I think part of it probably is an effort to get rid of people who are over the age of 55. And I think it’s also like what Zuckerberg has been doing, hey, look, if you want to self select out, if you have decided that these higher standards and benchmarks are just not for you, then you can just self select right out the door. This is the image that’s coming to my mind is like a bubbling cauldron How appropriate for Halloween, right, but a bubbling cauldron. Like it’s being stirred and it’s boiling. It’s kind of like you can either get out of the bubbling cauldron on your own, you can take this severance pay and get the hell out. Or you can try to hang on and do one of these pips. But Come What May if we’ve decided that you need to go, you’re gonna go. This is like the initial part of the carrot going to the stick. You either take the dangling carrot in the form of this buyout or the severance pay, or you can get the stick and get prodded out by force. Today, it is Wednesday, November 2, your ears are not deceiving you I was not able to get on and record a segment yesterday. I took ill and it happened so fast. It’s really like nothing I’ve ever quite experienced before. It would be like if you were walking down the street minding your own business, everything was fine. And then all of a sudden a city bus jumped the curb and just ran you over. That’s probably the best way I could describe it. I am feeling somewhat better today though most assuredly not 100% this experience gave me the opportunity to see firsthand what it is like to go to an emergency room in modern day America. I wasn’t surprised by it, let’s say because I’ve been hearing from people in other parts of the country, what it’s like, if you have to go to an ER if you have to be hospitalized and how it has changed so much, and they’re not wrong, the experience that you have now is so different from what it was like five or 10 years ago. And I think we used to tell ourselves that in this country, we pay a king’s ransom for health insurance. And then on top of that, the insurance is really not enough, you’re still going to be billed above and beyond if you have to go to the hospital. But it’s okay, because we have all of this innovation, all of these discoveries, and all of these cures, your survival rate here is going to be so much higher. When you go into the hospitals or the emergency room, you get fast, compassionate care, and everything is spotless, you could eat off the floors. Well, those days are gone. I don’t know if they’re coming back or not. But I can tell you, I was pretty disappointed. I wasn’t surprised. But seeing is believing. So I went to an urgent care first. And even though the people there were clearly overwhelmed and understaffed, they at least seem to care, they at least seem to have some compassion. But when I had to go to the emergency room, that’s really where things took a downhill slide for me, because those people were overworked and overwhelmed, and just did not seem to give a toss. Now, this is just my opinion, just my perspective, my perception based on what I experienced. And that’s all, as Dennis Miller has always said, it’s just my opinion. And I could be wrong. But my perception of the situation was, if you don’t have something respiratory, they really don’t seem to care. I’m not saying that they particularly cared about the people that were coming in with respiratory illnesses either. But it just seems like if you have some other type of problem, they really don’t care, the DGAF really gets rolled up. Things like flu, COVID. And RSV seem to be a major push. And if you didn’t have one of those, you’re kind of just Sol. I hate to say that, but it’s true. That was my experience. So even there, even though I was in there feeling like I was going to puke up my liver and poop out my kidneys. It was kind of like well, I mean, you don’t have COVID And you don’t have influenza. So well, we’re sorry about the four was filthy, there were scuff marks all over it. And it looks like it probably had not been properly cleaned and and buffed. And I don’t know how long the door to the bathroom in the room that I was in was locked. So that was fun. We’re not going to even get into that part of the discussion. But the thing of it was that the people of the urgent care did seem to care. It was just you know, there’s only so much that they can do at an urgent care or clinic facility before they just tell you like, Hey, we’ve done what we can do for you. I think it’s time now for you to go to an emergency room. I hope to God that you don’t have that experience. But if you do, you might be really, really surprised as to what conditions are like in this is not what medical care used to be years ago, it’s just not It is very sad. I do have compassion for people that are overworked. They’re pulling a lot of shifts, and they’re just doing what they can do I get that. I’m not saying that it’s their fault. I think I’m really just pointing out that systemically. Wow, we’re failing. And I just don’t know that we’ll ever get back to what we used to be. I’m sorry, that sounds pessimistic. But yeah, I don’t know. I’m skeptical. I’m skeptical. So over on CNBC today we have headlines such as down closes 500 points lower NASDAQ sheds 3%. As Fed Chair Powell signals intent to continue hiking rates. Fed approves a point seven five point hike to take rates to highest since 2008. And hence a change in policy ahead. 10 year Treasury yield turns higher after Feds Powell says rates will go higher than expected. Shares of Airbnb tumbled 13% on low fourth quarter guidance. Over on Yahoo Finance we find Powell says it is very premature to talk about pausing interest rate hikes. The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates Wednesday by 75 basis points while hinting at a potential slower pace in the future. Then Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated the central bank’s commitment to tame inflation. Stocks nosedive after Powell pushes back against pivot ADP report us private payrolls post surprise bump. Hmm. I don’t think that’s a surprise to anyone. Because in my opinion, they’re using the supposedly hot labor market to justify continuing their rate hikes. I do not think we’re at a point right now where they’re ready to tell us oops, a daisy, unemployment really actually is higher than we’ve been letting on. We’re not there yet, in my opinion, is Elon Musk getting too distracted? To run Tesla? Well, that’s funny, because that falls more into the category of rules for the but not for me. Like the business owner or the CEO, whoever it was, that was griping about people being over employed. It’s okay. For CEOs to be over employed. It’s okay for them to have more than one job and to wear more than one hat because you know, that’s just being a good capitalist. That’s just being a good industrialist. They’re allowed to do that. But if the average working class person attempts to do the same thing, you need to get your hand slapped you naughty little peon. Shame on you. Also today, according to NBC News, US military inspectors in Ukraine to keep further track of weapons and equipment. Now, it wasn’t that long ago that PolitiFact had some fact checking thing where they said no, the US military is not in the Ukraine. That’s just propaganda that’s being put out by bots on Facebook, or whatever. And I’m like, okay, but now we’re being told that, at this point, US military inspectors are in Ukraine, where is that going to go? I don’t know. I do feel like we’re edging closer and closer and closer to whatever it is. That finally sparks off the powder keg. I talked in a previous Saturday broadcast that you know, this war hawks are not being shy in saying that they want regime change. In my mind, the minute that you drop a phrase like regime change, you’re showing your hand, it’s obvious to me what your goal is. It’s obvious to me what you how you intend to play the game at that point. Where will it go? And at what point what will be that final thing that lights the spark? I don’t know. But I do think it’s important to stay aware. Not paranoid, not hyper vigilant, but just aware. Today, it is Thursday, November 3, I’m feeling somewhat better, although not good. To be honest. My bones hurt my muscles hurt. The least little thing makes me feel incredibly fatigued, and I am still drinking as much as I can to get rehydrated. This is not a joke, nor is it in game. I was like those memes I was today years old. I really didn’t know before. This happened to me that there was such a thing as viral food poisoning. I thought that it was just like, by its very nature, food poisoning was either bacterial or fungal. You got into something that was tainted, you consumed a bacteria or a fungus. And that’s what gave you gut problems. I didn’t know really until this happened to me that Oh, no, you can get viral food poisoning too. And some of these stomach bugs are very nasty indeed. So I hope that this doesn’t ever happen to any of you listening. If it has happened to you, and you’ve had this experience before. God bless you. I understand your pain. I was tested for influenza. I was tested for COVID. All of that came back negative, which didn’t surprise me because I have not had any respiratory symptoms. It’s all been, you know, profound fatigue, muscle pains and aches on and off fever and then a lot of stomach distress that I will not discuss on the air. But yeah, I hope it never happens to you. Over on the side panel for LinkedIn news, we find hiring slips in October, open door lays off 550 staffers, Stripe cuts workforce by 14%. layoffs and RTO at Musk’s Twitter. But remember, it was only just this week in the portion that I recorded on Halloween where another little tidbit that popped up on LinkedIn news was that Musk was denying that there would be layoffs at Twitter. And I remember saying like that makes me suspicious that there probably will be layoffs, because it seems like the more they get out in the media and deny that layoffs are coming, the more it seems to be that layoffs are coming. I also want you to really think about these commentators so called economists and pundits who said that we would not see mass layoffs happening in q4 that people were gonna be all right through the remainder of 2022 and things were going to be alright it was going to be cool, man. How did their predictions stack up? As we’re getting further and further into q4 and we’re reading more and more layoff announcements, does it seem like their predictions have held water? on CNBC we have headlines today such as Amazon pauses hiring for corporate workforce. Stripe lays off 14% of workers lift cuts 13% of its workforce in VA Top Shot maker, dapper labs lays off 22% of workers. Yet again, those prognosticators that said we just would not see layoffs, mass layoffs and q4. How are their predictions looking right about now? stocks closed lower for a fourth day, NASDAQ sheds 1.7% as October jobs report looms, it’ll be interesting to see if we get more hot air. It’ll be interesting to see if they finally give us some approximation of the truth. I’m not gonna hold my breath for it, but I just wonder are we still gonna get to open jobs for everyone unemployed person 3.5% Or 3.7% unemployment rate. How much are we actually going to be allowed to know whenever we get this report? Facebook parent company meta now the worst performer in the s&p 500 this year. Over on Yahoo Finance, we find stocks fall after hawkish Powell cues ahead of jobs report. US stocks fell lower Thursday as Wall Street revealed from assertions by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that hopes for a policy pivot were premature after the central bank delivered a fourth consecutive interest rate hike of 75 basis points. Starbucks earnings beat as consumers pay higher prices. Warner Brothers discovery reports $2.3 billion loss amid q3 earnings miss markets under pressure heading into the close energy stocks rise. Credit card aprs are set to blow past all time highs. This is again why a lot of commentators are saying if you can get yourself out of personal debt, this is a good time to do it. I can’t tell you what to do, I cannot give you financial advice of any kind. I would say that if you need to sit down with a professional financial advisor or planner, if you need to get with a credit counselor, this could be a very good time to do it. Because those credit card interest rates are only going to get worse. And I know it’s easier said than done. Pulley me. After what I have been through this week with my health like I honestly dread. I dread to know like with health insurance and all of that. Even though we pay a king’s ransom for it, I hate to know what my bills are going to total up both from the urgent care and from the hospital. When you’re over a barrel and you feel like you’re dying. There’s only so much that you can do. So I’m I dread to know what kind of medical bills that I’m going to have to pay for this ordeal. And it’s a shame in this country that we have to think in those terms. But we do. So believe me when I say I understand that debt is very easy to get into and very difficult to get out of. I get it. I think we have to be doing the best that we can right now. With the credit card interest rates going up. And I think in a lot of cases it’s probably going to get more difficult to borrow money anyway. The more judicious the more careful you can be, in my opinion, the better. Today it is Friday, November 4 And it is absolutely the kind of Friday where it’s like TGIF on steroids. I’m sitting here with my bottle of Pedialyte, being in that Petey Pablo song where he’s like, I want to give a shout out to Seagrim’s gin because I drink it and they’re paying me for it. I’m giving a shout out to Pedialyte, they’re not paying me for it, but I am drinking it. We are also under the gun for severe weather here in in my part of the Midwest. It’s an odd time for tornadoes and hail and damaging winds. This is more like the initial transition from winter to spring or from summer to fall. But typically November tornadoes not so much. So it’s a very odd kind of day. And I mostly just want to crawl back in the recliner and continue drinking this Pedialyte of being honest. If we go on CNBC, we have headlines today such as Elon Musk says Twitter has had massive revenue drop as advertisers pause spending. Twitter sued by employees after mass layoffs begin on Halloween though that was just a rumor. It was just a rumor. No don’t pay any attention to that. Like the Wizard of Oz don’t don’t pay any attention to that man behind the curtain layoffs are not coming in. I remember telling you them worried the media denies it the more I think it’s probably true. Down closes 400 points higher, but snaps for weak win streak on rising rate fears Carvana stock posts worst day ever as Outlook darkens for used vehicle market. As I say all the time, I can’t tell you what to do. But if you have a vehicle that’s operable right now, you’re probably better off hanging on to it than trying to go and finance something, especially with the interest rates going up mercilessly. If we scroll down, we will also see Americans are growing more frustrated with both Democrats and Republicans. Well, in my mind, that’s a step in the right direction. Because, you know, I’m politically agnostic on this podcast. I don’t get into it. But the most I will say is that I don’t see a huge difference between the one and the other. You know, South Park had a very funny episode about that years ago, where it’s like, here’s one bad choice and another equally bad choice zoom try to design what you want. When we click on Twitter sued by employees after mass layoffs began in the TLDR key points we find. Five current or former Twitter employees sued the company Thursday alleging it violated federal and California laws by failing to give enough notice about ongoing mass layoffs. Twitter will inform staffers Friday of their job status, which is today and it’s expected to fire about 3700 employees. The layoffs are commencing just days after Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk took control of Twitter. Over on Yahoo Finance, we get a nice little tidy summary of the hot air and hopium. In my opinion, October jobs report. jobs report us payrolls grew by 261,000. In October unemployment rate rises to 3.7%. The US economy added more jobs than expected in October even as the Federal Reserve pressed on with the central bank’s most aggressive monetary tightening campaign in decades. Here are the highlights from the Labor Department’s monthly jobs report released Friday compared to consensus estimates from Bloomberg, non farm payrolls up 261,000 versus only the 195,000 expected unemployment rate 3.7% versus 3.6% expected average hourly earnings month over month point 4%. Up versus point 3%. up that was expected average hourly earnings year over year up 4.7% versus being up 4.7%. Which was expected. Hmm. Okay. How much of that do you believe? Do you think that unemployment is it 3.7% mean seriously. On the side panel for LinkedIn, we find big tech hit with hiring freezes and cuts. I’ll read that for you now. A cluster of tech companies move to implement hiring freezes and sweeping layoffs on Thursday amid a stream of grim news for the industry. The job cuts and hiring pauses impacted, the corporate offices have behemoths such as Apple, Oracle and Amazon as well as payment processor stripe and ride hailing firm lift. The tech sector has been buffeted by layoffs for much of the year but the Federal Reserve’s decision to fight decades high inflation by sharply raising interest rates has corporate leaders preparing for a seemingly inevitable recession in the US. Yeah, it is inevitable because we’re already freaking in it. You know, I’ve heard other commentators say by the time they admit that we’re in a recession, we will actually be in a depression. I’m inclined to believe that’s correct. I heard on one of Orlando miners recent videos that he was saying we don’t want housing prices to drop by 50%. Even though a lot of buyers are saying yeah, we do. No, really we don’t, because that would mean that we’re in an economic depression. And who wants that? Well, respectfully that may not be avoidable. Nobody wants another Great Depression, except the fat cats at the top will profiteer off of it. They always do. They always do. Does the average working class person want another Great Depression? Hell? No, of course not. I’m just not convinced that we are going to be able to do enough to mitigate the risk of that. I tend to agree with the commentators who say by the time they tell us Oh, we’ll oh, we’re in a recession. It may be something deeper and worse than a recession. Truly. As a homeowner, do I want to see the value of my house get cut in half. No, I don’t. I do think that some kind of correction has to happen because people putting burned out myth trailers on Five Acres and saying yeah, this burned out meth trailer on five acres in the middle of nowhere is worth half a million dollars. That’s insane. crap like that cannot continue. So there will have to be some kind of correction, some kind of day of reckoning. How low will it go? And when will it happen? I have no idea. But I really do think that things are going to get quite ugly indeed. And I think these economists, I’m using air quotes here economists who told everybody oh, we’re not going to see mass layoffs in q4. Everybody’s gonna do fine. You can just ride through the holiday season. No worries. It’s all good, huh? Visit is it? Let’s read the bullet points here that they have highlighted. Amazon has frozen hiring for corporate roles and anonymous sources tell Business Insider that Apple has paused almost all hiring potentially through late 2023 Lyft said Thursday, it will cut 13% of its corporate workforce. Stripe indicated it will lay off more than 1000 employees or 14% of its workforce. Elon Musk will begin laying off Twitter employees on Friday, according to a company wide email. The New York Times reports Oh, but you know, no mass layoffs and q4. You might be tempted to say well, okay, but it’s just big tech or it’s just it startups it’s all just kind of confined to that area. No, it isn’t. No, it isn’t. There are other areas having layoffs too. I mean, obviously, in the housing industry, realtors, mortgage brokers, mortgage bankers, etc. Now that they’re not able to just make money hand over fist. Some of those are doing the old Zuckerberg and just self selecting out the door. Others are getting laid off. It is not just big tech companies, or IT startups and it’s also quite frankly, not just companies related to the housing market either. Earlier today, even CNBC published the article, layoffs are picking up. These are the first three steps to take after losing your job. Key points a job loss can be traumatic, setting off a myriad of financial problems, but taking the right steps sooner rather than later can help reduce the disruptiveness. You know, but think about all through the year. We’re not in a recession. Well, I mean, okay, a technical recession, but the job market, people are doing great. Look at how low the unemployment rate is to legitimate open jobs for everyone. My Pedialyte’s making noise. Pardon me. I got a little animated there. You can’t see me but I do talk with my hands a lot. To open jobs for every one unemployed person. People just don’t want to work anymore. They don’t they don’t have any stick-to-it-iveness at first little sign of of trouble they give up. Gen Z you don’t want to work. No more. Everybody’s in grandma’s basement with them stimmy checks. Right, right. Oh, of course. I have been warning you for months. That all that glitters is not gold. We are not in as good of a shape economically the job market is not just to toot toot no on the way that they claim it is. I really have transitioned from a mindset of look, you know, you need to get your house in order. You need to be preparing. You need to be thinking about these things, too. Hey, if you haven’t gotten it by now, you’re just not getting it. I don’t know what is left. I don’t know what to tell somebody that is still head in the clouds or head buried in the sand. I really don’t. I don’t if there’s someone in your life that you care about, and you’re trying to wake them up, I guess you can keep trying. But at some point, you may just have to walk away from that situation. I can’t tell you what to do. I just know that for my part, you know, especially today and thinking about this weird weather where we may have tornadoes. At some point you have to go into the basement or into the safe room into the seller and lock the door. If somebody’s like No, I’m just going to stand out here and look at this tornado and try to film it for for Instagram or Tik Tok. I’m not going to take appropriate shelter. I want to try to be internet famous. I mean, well, what can you do? If that person is an adult of sound mind you have to just let them take their own risks. It may be coming to that in a very economic kind of way, like, well, if you want to play games and act like everything is a joke, and we would just never we never have another housing bubble. We never have another 2008 We could never have another Great Depression. Well, okay. Let me know how that works out for you. In the meantime, stay safe, stay sane. And I will see you in the next episode.

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