14 Oct ⚠️ 175,000 jobs lost per month! ⚠️
As I’ve said many times before: IMO, naivete is coming at too high of a price these days. BoA is warning: “US economy will soon start losing 175,000 jobs a month.” They also predict job losses all through 2023. Do you have a job loss survival plan? Who is your first job-related phone call after a layoff? A good rule of thumb: 3 is 2, 2 is 1, 1 is none.
This information is not coming to you from weird fringe media outlets or banks no one ever heard of. You are literally being told by CNN and BoA that job losses loom large on the horizon. If you know of someone who needs to hear this, please share this episode with them.
Links I reference:
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Transcription by Otter.ai. Please forgive any typos!
Welcome to the Causey Consulting Podcast. You can find us online anytime at CauseyConsultingLLC.com. And now, here’s your host, Sara Causey. Hello, Hello, and thanks for tuning in, wanted to hop on put out another Please wake up, please stay aware message. And yes, I am getting tired of having to do this. But I feel like it’s very important. I don’t want anybody to get blindsided by what’s brewing up the information that’s being put out there, it’s findable. Now, I’m not going to tell you that it’s being smeared across the front page. And it’s easy to find. I’m just telling you that it is findable if you care to look. And I think if you have friends or family members that maybe they need somebody to poke them in the ribs a little bit and say, Wake up, up, up, up up, share this, please do not let yourself or people that you care about be blindsided by what is yet to come. This is not something on some weird fringe media outlet that nobody ever heard of some banker that nobody ever heard of. This is mainstream information. On CNN BUSINESS, we find US economy will soon start losing 175,000 jobs a month, Bank of America warns I don’t know how many more warning signs and words of caution that you will get before the snowball becomes an avalanche. I’ve used the analogy before that, in my opinion, we’re on a slow roll down a bad Hill. At any point in time, the snowball could pick up steam and turn into an avalanche. I don’t want to be buried underneath the avalanche. I want to do whatever I can to be in as good of a position to weather the storm. Because we just don’t know. I’m skeptical of people on hopium who seem to think that maybe things will be tough for a few months, but we’ll rally back and everything will be great. I don’t really remember economic turmoil to this degree that we pulled out of and only a few months. I think that that is a lot of wishful thinking. This really could be a downturn that we have to deal with for years. I’m not saying it’s going to be a downturn that collapses all of society. We’re going to be in the Thunderdome. There are people out there saying exactly that that you better be prepared to roast your marshmallows on the fires of the Apocalypse and you better be prepared to fight it out in the Thunderdome and all of this like intense sci fi movie dystopia language. I think a lot of those people probably have watched too many movies, they probably have read too much dystopian fiction and they’re just LARPing they want to play pretend that they’re going to be the Lord of the Thunderdome when it all collapses. And as I’ve told you before, I think a lot of those people will poop their pants. If we really did have some kind of scenario like that they would be the first ones to poopoo in their britches and not know how to take care of themselves. So I tune that out. Nevertheless, we could have something like the Great Recession slash global financial crisis of oh eight that lasts for a couple of years. We typically don’t pull out of something that severe in a matter of months. Even Suze Orman has said, why don’t you go ahead and assume you’re laid off wargame out your strategy, think about what you would do. I’ve said the same thing even before she did map out your job loss survival plan, who is your first phone call, after you’ve called your person? Who is your first job related phone call going to be? And I would not stop at one. I would not recommend that you put all of your eggs into any one basket as the preppers like to say three is two. Two is one. One is none. I learned that little lesson earlier I had a man plans and God laughs moment because I discovered that the extra fridge out in the garage. Lot of Midwesterners like to call that fridge the beer fridge. In our case, it’s really just an extra place to put things like water and overflow. Maybe I found a good sale on something and so I put some things in the freezer out there. Long story short, the outlet had gotten kicked. And I had to you know push the little reset button and turn everything back on. So I lost about I don’t know maybe 30 or $40 worth of food that I had squirreled away in the freezer in there because it had thawed out and after Do something thaws out like that it’s been frozen, it thaws out, you can’t refreeze it, you have to either cook it and use it while it’s still safe and temperature or you have to throw it away. And unfortunately, in my circumstance, I had to just throw it away. And that was highly unpleasant. But it’s a great reminder, three is two, two is one is not, you may think that you have everything covered, all of your bases are lined up properly, and then you get hit with a surprise and it goes into Mike Tyson territory. Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face. So I don’t recommend I can’t tell you what to do. I can’t give you advice, but I don’t recommend that you put all of your eggs into any one particular basket. I think people who have it in mind that they’re just going to start hitting up staffing agencies and everything will be alright because hey, during the Great resignation recruiters called me all the time. Your phone’s not going to be ringing I hate to break it to you there. But I’ve lived through this rodeo to staffing agencies will be underwhelmed with job orders. What they do get will be this bizarre niche. Maybe 10 People in the continental US can actually satisfy the manager. Wait and see. I’ve lived it before I know how it goes go find this Tony Stark genius billionaire playboy, philanthropist 50k a year, and he has to be button seen in the office because no more remote work. Go find us someone who’s a degreed civil engineer that can gargle peanut butter upside down. They need to know how to be able to build bridges and dams. But then they also need to be a TIG welder. They also need to be a store cashier, they also need to be a professional hairdresser. And you’re sitting there like what? How many freaking jobs are you trying to roll into one position? It will happen. It always does. It always does. So be prepared for that. I would not myself want to rely on third party contingency based staffing agencies to bail me out during a recession, because they’re just not going to have a lot to offer people. I’m sorry, I know that probably sounds harsh, but I’m just telling you, I’ve been in the belly of that beast, I know how it goes. So I would want to have more than one resource available. If you have a dry erase marker board and a marker, if you have paper and a pencil, if you have access to a Word document or some other something on your phone, or your computer that you can open up and type into these things are free of charge, use what you already have, and don’t go out and spend any money and start Wargaming out Who am I going to call? If they can’t help? Who next? Who next? Who next? And then keep going until you have five or six possibilities. I would say if you feel more comfortable having 10 or 20. Go for it. Do whatever you think you need to do to survive. That’s that would help you and your family, I don’t know your individual situation. So I can’t speak on it. Speaking for myself, I would not assume that Oh, well. My buddy Bob will be able to help me out. I’m sure he could get me a job at his company for a few months. Bob may be broke, Bob’s business may go under, you don’t really know. So don’t don’t say that my friend, Bob’s probably going to be able to bail me out. Or I’ll just call these recruiters back that I snubbed and treated like dirt during the Great resignation. That to me is not the greatest of job loss survival plans, have a good well rounded plan and also have some flexibility. So that as the saying goes If you get punched in the face, and you have to pivot from the original plan, you’re able to do so. So let’s get into the thick of this article. We read the Federal Reserve’s fight to squash inflation will cause the US economy to start losing 10s of 1000s of jobs a month, beginning early next year, Bank of America warns I will but in long enough to say I would not bet my life on their timeline. I know that we’re getting this weird hopium there won’t be layoffs in q4. Probably going to be okay. Yeah, the market slowing down. But layoffs are not going to come on mass. And they’re probably not going to come in q4. I don’t know what those people are smoking. It must be some really good and interesting stuff. But I would not bet my farm or betting my life on the idea that layoffs are not going to come in q4. We’re already seeing them. There’s still a headline up on LinkedIn news right now about how Intel is planning a bunch of layoffs. So it’s like, okay, sure, there won’t be layoffs in q4, right. But at the very least, we do have some kind of warning here that according to Bank of America, there’s really going to be some serious doo doo that hits the fan in q1 of next year. Don’t take this information lightly in my opinion. I’ll continue to read although the jobs market remains surprisingly strong in September The Fed is working hard to change that by aggressively raising interest rates to ease demand for everything from cars and homes to appliances. The pace of job growth is expected to be roughly cut in half. During the fourth quarter of this year, Bank of America told clients in a report on Friday and quote, don’t pay attention so much to what they say, especially out in public where they’re just talking to what they considered to be the hoi polloi. The commoners. You peons and plebs watch what they do. I also think it’s interesting to have a little ear to the wall on what they tell their clients, their shareholders, the board of directors, because in these private conversations that go on with who they consider to be not the peons, and plebs, we can get some good information. So they’re telling their clients, hey, the pace of job growth is going to be cut in half during q4. So where are these other reporters are getting their information not to expect mass layoffs and q4 I don’t know where in the hell that’s coming from. But we’re being telegraphed here from Bank of America that they expect the pace of job growth to be cut in half, in q4 of this year, oh, and then in q1 of next year, that’s when we’re going to shed 10s of 1000s of jobs per month. Please, for the love of God, people do not be naïve about this. I will continue to read as pressure from the feds war on inflation builds non farm payrolls will begin shrinking early next year translating to a loss of about 175,000 jobs a month during the first quarter, the bank set charts published by Bank of America suggest job losses will continue through much of 2023 Oh, great. Right, right, right. So these people who think this is just a blip, you know, two or three months, maybe six months at the most and we’ll pull out of it. Bank of America is freaking telling you. They think that this massive job loss in the economy is going to go on through most of next year. The premise is a harder landing rather than a soft one. Michael gaping er gap him, head of us economics at Bank of America told CNN in a phone interview on Monday. In a perfect world, the Fed would slow the job market enough to get inflation back to healthy levels, but not so much that it causes significant and persistent job losses. Bank of America doesn’t think the Fed will be able to pull that off. We are looking for a recession to begin in the first half of next year gaping set. Hmm. Yeah, yeah. That’s gonna be bad. You guys, I just don’t see any way around it because I think we’re already in a recession and have been. I think they changed the technical definition of a recession so they wouldn’t have to admit that we’re in one but we are. The Fed has also told you go back and reference that CBS News article I published go back and look at it for yourself. It’s right freakin there. They’re telling you they want to crash the job market. Now you got Bank of America confirming it saying yeah, it’s gonna be a hard landing rather than a soft one. And we’re gonna shed all of these 10s of 1000s of jobs every month through most of 2023. How many more warnings are you going to need? I’ll continue to read unemployment to peek at 5.5% Bank of America says last Friday’s jobs report showed that although the jobs market is slowing down, the United States added a stronger than expected 263,000 jobs in September, the unemployment rate dropped to 3.5% tied for the lowest level since 1969. But gaping expects the unemployment rate will climb to around five or five and a half percent over the next year. By comparison, the Fed expects the unemployment rate to 4.4% Next year, the US central bank is raising interest rates at the fastest pace in at least four decades in a bid to cool inflation. Fed officials have made it clear that they are in no rush to shift out of inflation fighting mode to save the economy from a slowdown or even a recession and quote, well, they failed in that because I think we’re already in one. Here’s what I want to say about this. If they’re willing to come out publicly and say they think unemployment is going to peak at 5.5%. How bad will it really be? I don’t think for one second, that unemployment is currently truly at three and a half percent or 3.7%. I’m sorry, I don’t I also don’t think that these suppose a 263,000 jobs that got added in September are legitimate. I’ve told you before some of these people that took out PPP loans put on now hiring sign in the window and the now hiring sign never came down, but yet they’ve not actually hired anyone. I’ve also told you the story about the cashier that I had an interesting conversation with, who told me I applied all over town and I saw all of these Now hiring signs, but I only got one phone call back. And so this place I’m working out as the winner by default. There’s something really, really fishy about all of this. I think any jobs that have supposedly been added are service sector jobs. And I’m not trying to be submerged anybody’s right to make a living. What I want to say about that is to pretend that like an eight or $10 an hour job with no benefits, is a living wage is absurd. These are not white collar jobs that pay 5060 70k With a full benefits package. But that’s how the media wants to act. Like we’re all just supposed to read this information and turn cartwheels, that all of these jobs are supposedly legitimate open jobs that a manager will hire for, pay a living wage and have some kind of sensible benefits package. I don’t believe it. So sorry, don’t believe it. I’ll continue to read. Some forecasters are more bullish on the state of the jobs market. The Conference Board said Monday its employment trend index, a combination of leading job market indicators ticked up last month. The Conference Board said this is a signal that employment will continue to grow over the coming months, though job gains are likely to decelerate from their recent pace. The good news is that even those calling for a recession don’t see unemployment rate skyrocketing as it did in 2020, or 2008. Bank of America expects the unemployment rate will top out at 5.5%. Next year, well below the peak of nearly 15% in April 2020. Although nobody wants to be callous about someone losing their job gape and said, This could be classified as a mild recession and quote. Yep, yeah, it’s a mild recession to them, I guess where you have said the quote before, it’s, it’s a recession when the guy down the street loses his job. It’s a depression when you lose yours. So I think for corporate fat cats and Wall Street, high rollers and people that are paid obscene amounts of money at these banks, okay, it’s a mild recession, they’re going to be wealthy, they’re going to do whatever they have to do to survive. They’re gonna mercilessly squeezed the middle class and then the working class people, we already know that. So in their mind is a mild recession, unemployment will be five and a half percent, who cares? Again, I’m skeptical that it’s going to be five and a half percent, because the thing of it is, if we’re ever allowed to know what the true unemployment rate is, even then we’ll get the narrative of oops, a daisy. Oh, well call that one wrong. didn’t see this coming home. So sorry, nobody will see a day in jail. Nothing significant is going to happen. The the can will just keep getting kicked down the road, just like it did from the Great Recession. You know, it’s like the episode I recorded about the public always forgets, they sure do. We’ll go through this mess. And then you give it some time, people will forget they’ll just go on like nothing happened. I hate to sound so cynical. I just don’t see any evidence to the contrary. So I want to bring this up, because 175,000 jobs being lost per month. What if it’s worse than that? What if that’s all they’re willing to admit to? For the time being? What if your job is one of the 175,000 that goes away. It’s better to be prepared than scared. It’s better to have some kind of game plan put together so that you can go into stick to the plan mode. Just like people that go through training, martial artists, professional athletes, military personnel, when it’s time to play the game, when it’s time to do the combat when it’s time to do the drills. You’ve already been through your practice. You already have your training, so you can revert to your training. And you’re not worried about oh, God, I didn’t see this coming. Nobody warned me. I don’t want you to be like that guy on LinkedIn. It’s like I’ve never even heard of a rescinded job offer. Don’t be like that guy. I am sorry for him. In his sad what happened to him? It is not sad to me that somebody has ample warnings and ignores them. Don’t let that person be you don’t read an article like this and say, Oh, well probably won’t happen to me. I think I’m pretty secure where I’m at my company has been around for X number of decades. They didn’t get taken out in the Great Recession, they won’t get taken out now. How do you know that? Are you privy to their P&L statements? Do you know everything that their board of directors would do? Probably not. Let’s just be honest here. Probably not. Do what you need to do to survive wargame out that job loss survival plan, get a strategy put together. Don’t put all of your eggs into any one basket. have like a list. Have things that you would do. Can you cut back on expenses? Do you live paycheck to paycheck right now? Are you maybe spending too much on things that are frivolous, that you would not need things that would not be important to you in the midst of a job loss when you’re just trying to survive? Think about these things ahead of time. We don’t want to create a situation where what we fear comes upon us. So this is not about paranoia, hyper vigilance, losing sleep at night, wigging yourself out. This is about in the event that the doodoo hits the fan in a very personal way for me, I know what I would need to do to survive. I can sleep easier at night because I know that the first five phone calls I would make I’ve already had a conversation with people and we know what we would do to help each other. There’s a network in place here a safety net if you will. Consider these things for yourself. Do what you need to do. The main thing is please, please do not bury your head in the sand and please do not be naïve about these things in my opinion, naivete right now is coming at too high of a price. Stay safe, stay sane. I will see you in the next episode. Thanks for tuning in. If you enjoyed this episode, please take a quick second to subscribe to this podcast and share it with your friends. We’ll see you next time.