10 Sep Saturday Broadcast 15
Key topics:
✔️ ICYMI news, 9/4 – 9/9.
✔️ A zero down mortgage? What could possibly go wrong! *Gestures towards 2008*
✔️ I had a disappointing experience of prices going up so fast the store employees couldn’t keep up with changing the stickers on the shelves. CNN published a story about a $25 backpack being unaffordable. But oh yeah – people’r’doin great! 😣
✔️ IMO, it’s important to watch what the fat cats do. Not so much what they say, especially to the general public, but what they DO.
Links mentioned in this episode:
https://usatoday30.usatoday.com/money/perfi/housing/2006-01-17-real-estate-usat_x.htm
https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/01/homes/bank-of-america-zero-down-mortgages/index.html
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mortgage-rates-tiptoe-perilously-close-130000339.html
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/census-bureau-3-8-million-110000669.html
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bed-bath-beyond-cfo-accused-215540458.html
https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/ceo-does-not-regret-rto-mandate-5975154/
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20220826a.htm
https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/04/business/back-to-school-expenses-struggle/index.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/07/harvard-fellow-using-bnpl-for-food-shows-personal-desperation.html
https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/job-seekers-proceed-with-caution-5978106/
https://fairmontpost.com/should-job-hoppers-leap-one-more-time/
https://finance.yahoo.com/m/0f50d41c-d925-3acc-b502-d40f69b42fcb/junk-loan-defaults-worry-wall.html
https://nypost.com/2022/09/06/bear-market-lows-likely-arrive-in-4th-quarter-morgan-stanley/
https://news.gallup.com/poll/400565/inflation-causing-hardship-majority.aspx
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Siren courtesy of Pixabay.
Transcription by Otter.ai. Please forgive any typos!
Hello, Hello and thanks for tuning in recording this portion of the broadcast on Sunday, September 4. We’re gonna take a little stroll down memory lane for you. This is tough. It really is. My I saw a news story over this weekend. And it made me want to cry it just I’m so sick of this. I just I just am I’ve lived this before. I know how this story ends, and it’s awful. So let’s go back in time to an article that was published in USA Today on January 17 of 2006. It reads as housing prices soared last year, an eye popping 43% of first time homebuyers purchase their homes with no money down loans. According to a study released Tuesday by the National Association of Realtors, the trend is potentially ominous. The real estate market is cooling in some areas, and rates on adjustable rate loans are creeping up. As a result some No Money Down buyers could owe more than their homes are worth. The median first time homebuyer scraped together a down payment of only 2% on a $150,000 home in 2005. The NAR found already home prices in many areas are declining and the for sale signs are hanging in front yards longer. There’s now at least a 50% risk that prices will decline within two years in 11 major metro areas including San Diego, Boston, Long Island, Los Angeles and San Francisco. According to PMI mortgage insurance, his latest US market risk index, and a number of areas particularly on the coast they have a high risk of price declines in the next two years says Mark Milner Chief Risk Officer of PMI, red hot homebuilding acquisitions, remodeling and refinancing in recent years, helped drive the economy and raise fears of a real estate bubble. Dean Baker of The Center for Economic and Policy Research says that if housing prices fall at least 10%, it could be even more damaging than the collapse of the high tech stock bubble in 2000. In quote. Does any of that sound familiar? Does it not feel to anyone else like we are in a another act of the same flipping play? God so over the weekend, I saw this article from CNN BUSINESS titled Bank of America to offer zero down payment mortgages in certain Black and Hispanic communities. Naturally, I will drop a link to it as well as the archived article from USA Today so that you can read both of those for yourself. I’ll read a little of that article for you now. Bank of America is offering zero down payment mortgages with no closing costs for first time homebuyers in certain Black and Hispanic neighborhoods in a new program designed to chip away at inequality in the housing market. The new loan launched this week requires no minimum credit score nor mortgage insurance, which lenders typically charge when borrowers put less than 20% down instead of a traditional credit score. first time homebuyers will be evaluated based on their history of making timely payments for rent, utilities, phone service and auto insurance. Bank of America said the new mortgage known as the community affordable loan solution is available in certain Census Designated markets, including black and Hispanic neighborhoods in Charlotte, Dallas, Detroit, Los Angeles and Miami in quote. How is this going to play out? I hope, I hope and I pray that this legitimately gives people who just need a chance they just need a shot, they are able to make payments, they’re not in over their head, they’re not going to wind up upside down on a house that has been priced way too high. Because when this bubble pops, and I believe it will, okay full disclosure. I’m not a real estate agent, not an economist. I don’t sit on the web. I’m not a power broker, just a an individual who lived this before reading the tea leaves when the bubble pops in my opinion. People who overpaid for their homes are going to be upside down just like they were the last time around. People getting into FOMO people buying things that they really could not afford. And then what happens well, you start to see foreclosure after foreclosure after foreclosure. And it’s very depressing. And it hurts a lot of people This is just my opinion and I could be wrong. But this feels so predatory to me because I was there and I remember it. You know, I talked on some of the other broadcast about the ninja loans, no income, no job or assets just come on here and get this free money. What? in corporate America what on Wall Street? What in these corporate banks is ever really free? What? Oh, I’m gonna have to sit down because this is really making me mad. We have lived this before. I hope I am wrong. I really, really do. I hope that this program will help people who need the help they can afford what they get and they will be just fine. I really hope that that is the outcome. I fear that it’s not. Today is Monday September 5. It’s Labor Day here in the US so the American stock market is closed to reflect the holiday. So we won’t be getting any stock market news today. Over on Yahoo Finance we see headlines such as we don’t have enough lithium for EVs says mining CEO, China is no longer the golden goose for movie studios. Turkeys inflation exceeds 80% In worst price blowout since 1998. With the economy faltering Is it time to ditch your bank for a credit union. Why businesses are still furiously hiring even as downturn looms. The byline reads a shake up in the labor market gives the upper hand to job applicants. Okay. Sure. Okay. We also see the headline mortgage rates tiptoe perilously close to threshold where the average family can’t afford a typical home. I’ll read a little of that for you now. US mortgage rates moved higher this week amid signs that the Federal Reserve will continue to hike its trend setting interest rate. When the Fed raises its benchmark rate, which it’s done four times this year. So far, the cost to borrow money for homes generally goes up to yet even though consumers will be paying more to finance a home they may find solace in other parts of the housing market. The silver lining for those still looking for a home is that houses are staying on the market longer, pushing sellers to drop asking prices and leaving room for negotiation and quote, we also find since this bureau 3.8 million renters will likely be evicted in the next two months, why the rental crisis keeps getting worse. I’ll read a little bit of that for you now. For the first time ever, the median rent in the US topped $2,000 a month in June. And the increase has shown no sign of stopping. Those rising rents mean that households representing a total of 8.5 million people were behind on their rent at the end of August according to the census bureau figures. I’m going to butt in long enough to say but remember, people are doing great. These companies are supposedly hiring furiously. People are getting out of debt. Fewer people say they’re living paycheck to paycheck, people are doing great. Mm hmm. And 3.8 million of those renters say they’re somewhat or very likely to be evicted in the next two months. The combination of soaring inflation the end of most eviction moratoriums, and rental assistance payments, and an extremely low vacancy rate has pushed rents up and many renters out in quote. Yeah. Also on Yahoo Finance, we find Bed Bath and Beyond CFO accused of pump and dump scheme, before falling to his death from New York City skyscraper. I’ll read a little bit for you now, a Bed Bath and Beyond executive who plunged to his death on Friday, stood accused in the lawsuit along with activist investor Ryan Cohen, of participating in a pump and dump scheme to artificially inflate the company’s value and quote, gestures broadly. You know, I published a podcast episode this morning about how I think the entire economy at this point is like a pump and dump scheme. That’s just my opinion. And I could be wrong. I’m not an economist, a power broker. I don’t sit on the web. So who knows? But to me, it seems like so many of these markets are being artificially propped up. And then we as the public are being pumped up and hyped up as though hey, everything’s fine. People are doing great. Nothing to see here. People move along, move along. And then when the bottom drops out, which it always does, someone is going to get very, very wealthy. I don’t know who that’ll be. It won’t be me. It won’t be you. It will be some, I’m sure bazillionaire that’s already loaded. Anyway. Have you know I’m not afraid of making bold statements and bold predictions and that’s what I imagine will happen it just always does. Over on the side panel for LinkedIn we find outpouring after retail execs death, which that’s in reference to what I just talked about. CEO does not regret RTO mandate. They typically don’t. Google’s 4000 cafeteria workers unite Connecticut at war with developers. California heat soars to record highs. Boomerangs returned to more pay consumers happier mid COVID The now baby workers staff nursing home wow so we have a lot of little headlines there to choose from today. I’ll read from SEO does not regret RTO mandate one year after mortgage lender United Wholesale mortgage required staff to return to the office five days a week was that the right call? CEO Matt ish via hopefully I’m saying that right Matt ish via tells the Wall Street Journal without question. It’s been worth it. Around 500 workers quit over the policy and while many did so for other jobs, some said that they wanted to work from home. Some major employers like Apple Goldman Sachs and BMO financial see Labor Day as a line in the corporate sand in their efforts to get workers back in the office consistently. This fall. Remaining workers at UW M say physical proximity and face to face interaction make work easier and strengthen their team overall, UW M has given in on workers request for more home time to a point, it gives employees a choice of 410 hour days in the office instead of a typical five day a week schedule and quote. Yep. So even what we learn here is that even though 500 workers quit, the CEO is still saying yeah, without question. It’s been worth it. That’s where I see things going Overall, I really don’t think okay, oh, no. All right. Okay, you’re okay, gloom and doom, or I really don’t think corporate America is going to cave this time. I think they’re going to demand that most people get back to the cube farm and be but in seat in a cubicle, or there’s the door. And then if people really do start to have a Mutiny on the Bounty, that’s when we’ll learn maybe that little curtain will get peeled back just a little bit more and and suddenly you’ll learn well, unemployment is not really 3.5% There’s not really two open jobs for everyone unemployed person. These companies that we told you we’re furiously hiring really are not. So if you decide to walk off the job, you better be sure better know what you’re doing. said it before. This is not the time in my opinion to bury your head in the sand and assume that your employer would just never demand are to or that if they did, you’d be able to find another job to replace it within a matter of minutes. Maybe, maybe not. Today, it is Tuesday, September 6. on CNBC, we have headlines such as dow closes more than 100 points lower in post labor day session as interest rates pop. Russia has cut off gas supplies to Europe indefinitely. Germany to keep two nuclear plants as a backup and burn coal amid energy crisis. Lows Chief Marketing Officer leaves the company as part of a broader reorganization. Seems like there’s some shuffling going around amongst the power brokers in corporate America. We also read Bed Bath and Beyond taps chief accounting officer as interim CFO after executive suicide. Well, speaking of the wheels of corporate America continuing to turn that reminds me of that meme or that quote about how your job will be posted even before your obituary hits the newspaper. There seems to be some sad truth to that. A couple of additional things I want to call your attention to one is an article that appeared on cnn.com titled, parents struggling with inflation. I left that $25 backpack for my preschooler at the checkout. I want to read from that article for you now. Just 36% of parents said they would be able to pay for everything their kids need the school year, according to morning consults annual back to school shopping report, that’s down sharply from 52% and 2021. When inflation was lower in stimulus checks plus advanced child tax credit payments helped some families. My shopping habits have changed significantly said long more and HR professional who lives in the Poconos in Pennsylvania with her husband and five children. The long Moore’s earn more than $100,000 a year well above the median US household income of nearly $65,000 But with five young children the family’s expenses are also well above average and long more said it is not enough to keep her household running comfortably. A problem underscored in the back to school season as four of the couple’s children are of school age and quote. But remember, people are doing great. Not that long ago, we were told that inflation was abating. Maybe we had finally reached the pinnacle of this and everything was just going to ease back down and things would be fine. Where’s the evidence of that? When you have a family that’s earning more than $100,000 a year? And they’re having to make difficult decisions about a $25? Backpack? How is that not concerning? How is that not a sign that there is more at play here than meets the eye? I don’t get it. I can’t I can’t make that make sense. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve had its conference in Jackson Hole last week. And I want to read from the transcript that Jerome Powell gave the speech that he gave the transcript of it, I’ll do that now. Without price stability, the economy does not work for anyone. In particular, without price stability, we will not achieve a sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all the burdens of high inflation fall heaviest on those who are least able to bear them. Well, isn’t that the truth. Restoring price stability will take some time and requires using our tools forcefully to bring demand and supply into better balance. Reducing inflation is likely to require a sustained period of below trend growth. Moreover, there will very likely be some softening of labor market conditions, while higher interest rates, slower growth and softer labor market conditions will bring down inflation, they will also bring some pain to households and businesses. These are the unfortunate costs of reducing inflation. But a failure to restore price stability would mean far greater pain in quote. What in that is a very thesis? What in that is hidden? If that’s not slapping you on Google slapping you all upside the face right now? I don’t know what will, you know, in some of the commentators that I listened to are pretty much at the point of burnout, as far as trying to wake people up. But at this point, it’s like if you if you haven’t gotten it by now, then you’re just not going to get it. And so it’s really more about planning ahead and being prepared for people who care to listen and who care to connect the dots. And I understand why they feel that way. Because this information, I’m not going to say that it’s plastered on the front page, you know, there’s the crap that we typically see plastered all over the place people are doing right. We’re in a recovery things are turning around and it’s a Okay, nothing to see here. People move along. But as with this speech, this is public information. It is findable. And I’ve said this before, so I know I’m gonna sound a broken record, but it’s like naivete in my opinion is coming at too high of a price. There’s too high a price to pay for burying your head in the sand and trying to be Suzy cream cheese or Pollyanna sunshine, like wake up hip hop up. Today, it is Wednesday, September 7, a little bit hard to believe that it’s already the seventh day of September. I’m not sure what happened. But it seemed like after we got some relief from the long hot summer now, time itself is pressing on the gas pedal. I have mixed emotions about that, because I really hope that we actually get some nice fall sweater weather. Typically in the Midwest, it’s like we get maybe two weeks of a terminal weather goes from being hot and gross to being freezing cold. You have to about two weeks to really get outside and enjoy pleasant weather. The leaves start to change. You get that beautiful spray of red, gold, yellow and orange and it’s so pretty and then boom, it’s winter. It’s bitter cold and it’s not pleasant to be outside for long periods of time. So maybe just maybe, maybe we’re gonna fall this year. I hope so. Over on CNBC, while the headlines seem to be today predict good Dow closes more than 400 points higher NASDAQ snaps seven day slump as Wall Street shakes off right. Hi concerns. Wow. Wow. Amazon CEO says he has no plan to force workers to return to the office. Wow, that sounds great. But then when you scroll down, the picture changes just a little bit. Big Short Michael Burry. Hence, we are in the middle of a market bubble popping akin to 2008 and 2000. Yeah, in my mind, this is another No dull moment, if you were alive and well, if you were an adult at those points in time, which I was I was there I remember It’s like that old routine from the 40s Vasil that Charlie? Yeah, yeah, yeah, I was there. I remember and it’s when the bubbles were swelling and people were living off the fat of the land. It was great. Then when the bubbles popped, it was awful. And I personally am seeing the same types of warning signs happening all over again. All over again. Margot bracing for three quarter point hike from the Fed this month, homeowners lose wealth as rising interest rates weigh on home values. Also on CNBC we find the article more Americans tapping Buy now pay later services for groceries, shows the height of personal desperation. Harvard researcher says yeah, I don’t think that you have to be a Harvard researcher to see that that’s a sign of personal desperation, a sign of dire straits if you’re having to finance out groceries. So in spite of whatever in my opinion, puff pieces they want to put on the front page about stocks are doing great return in and around. Okay, Meanwhile, back at the ranch people are financing their groceries. In the TLDR key points we read. With food prices at historic highs more consumers are turning to buy now pay later services for their weekly essentials. Once people start stretching out grocery payments, it shows the height of personal desperation, says Marshall Lux, a fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School and quote Indeed, over on the side panel for LinkedIn news, we find Apple raises curtain on new iPhones. Kim Kardashian starts an investment firm. United may stop its JFK flights jobseekers proceed with caution. Netflix slashes spending across the board. job cuts could be coming at Google regal owners file for bankruptcy. nearing end of free COVID tests and Vax judge lets Musk amend Twitter case inclusive sizing takes over fashion. So let’s click on job seekers. Proceed with caution. In the write up for that article we find spotting warning signs during the hiring process can be difficult if you don’t know what to look for. Well, according to a recent survey of job seekers, there are three main red flags and job postings, no specified salary range, low base salary and experience requirements too high for the position. It’s no surprise that the top two warning signs involve pay with CNBC make it noting that pay transparency is now a major priority for today’s jobseekers. As more states require employers to disclose salary, salary ranges, and quote, I fully agree I fully agree there needs to be salary transparency. If you’re not really serious about hiring somebody, then don’t put an ad out. Don’t Ask a Recruiter to recruit people if you’re just playing games and goofing around. Don’t waste no, don’t waste people’s time. Okay? No, nobody’s in the mood for that nonsense. I was interviewed. Gosh, I think back in May by the Fairmont post, and I will put a link to that in the write up so you can check it out. And the article is titled should job hoppers leap one more time? So already back in May? I was talking about this topic of you know, there’s no one right answer to this question. I can’t give anybody advice. I cannot tell you what to do. But if you’re trying to decide if you want to make one more quantum leap before the door slam shut, and we’re finally told Ooh, sorry. Unemployment isn’t really 3.5% where you have some employer that’s going to hard line you back into the office. And that’s not what you want. There are certain things to consider. Does the environment feel healthy? Are you valued? Is the job stable? Do you see a future there? What’s the pay? Like? There are certain decisions that have to be weighed out very carefully, when there’s just not as much variety on the market to choose from. In another chapter of things that will give you a flashback to pre Great Recession. on Yahoo Finance, we find junk loan defaults worry Wall Street investors. I’ll read a little bit of that for you here. financial pain is spreading in the junk loan market showing how interest rate increases are hurting debt laden companies and worrying investors that a credit crunch looms as the economy slows. defaults on so called leveraged loans hit $6 billion in August, the highest monthly total since October 2020, when the pandemic shutdowns hobbled the US economy of course. Getting to Fitch Ratings. The figure represents a fraction of the sprawling loan market which doubled over the past decade to about $1.5 trillion in quote, If you think that those chickens will not come home to roost, I don’t know what to tell you. To me yet again, it’s like a such a flashback 2006 2007 the kinds of shenanigans and chicanery going on behind the scenes at that point in time. Here we are. On the New York Post, we find bear market lows will likely arrive in fourth quarter, according to Morgan Stanley, and I will also read a little bit of that for you here. Morgan Stanley’s Michael J. Wilson, known for his bearish projections during the current downturns that he expects Lowe’s for this bear market will likely arrive in the fourth quarter. Wilson’s projections suggest the s&p 500 the broadest measure of US stocks will plummet to at least 3400 During the final three months of the year, a roughly 13% decline from its current level, he warned that the broad based index could fall even further to 3000. If the US economy falls into a deeper recession, stocks have been under pressure for months as investors signal pessimism about the Federal Reserve’s ability to achieve a soft landing for the economy while hiking interest rates. US gross domestic product has declined for two consecutive quarters, a development that many economists consider proof that a recession is already underway and quote, yeah, that’s been the, quote, technical definition of a recession for quite some time. If the GDP declined for two consecutive quarters, you could say we aren’t in a recession. I think for those of us who have lived through this dog and pony show before, it’s just a matter of thinking back to your own life experiences and being able to say yep, and they’re done that how know how this goes, I can’t give you advice, not an economist, not a power broker. Don’t sit on the web, but I just don’t think that this is the right time for anybody to get naive or to be overly optimistic. Optimistic in general, perhaps, yes. But not toxically optimist optimistic and going way off into never Neverland and Suzy cream cheese territory, I think we have to keep our wits about us and just prepare for whatever is coming down the pike. If in fact, this analysis turns out to be true, and we do see the bear market lows happening in the fourth quarter. That’s not so far off. Not at all. That means less than a month from now, because q4 comprises October, November, December. It’s September the seventh. That is not much time. If this prediction bears out to be correct. We will see. Sometimes economics can be like, I don’t know, trying to pick up Mercury with a fork. So who knows? Who knows what we will really see. Today it is Thursday, September the eighth, as I’m sure you’re aware of the big news today was the Queen Elizabeth the Second passed away at the age of 96. She was the longest reigning monarch in British history. And upon her passing, Charles became King Charles the third. So the times are definitely changing. It gave me a flashback to when Diana passed away in the 90s. I remember that night, clearly, because it was sort of like, whoa, wait a minute, what kind of moment I was watching Saturday Night Live. And they were showing a rerun of the episode Rob Lowe had done earlier that season. And all of a sudden NBC breaking news pops up. And I’m thinking it’s kind of late for that, isn’t it? What on earth is going on? They made the announcement that Diana had been involved in a horrible car crash in Paris. She was at the hospital and they had notified the family. They were trying to get family members there to be by her side. And I thought, well, that’s terrible, but she’s going to get the best possible medical care. And she’ll pull through this and it’ll be a sad thing, but she’s going to survive. Well, of course, we learned afterwards that she was deceased, and that no, she she didn’t survive the accident. Earlier this morning, I saw that some of the news outlets were doing like live streams about Queen Elizabeth not being in good health and family members being encouraged to fly from wherever they were at across the globe to be by her side. And in that moment, I thought well, she’s already passed away I’m sure we’re not we’re not allowed as the common folk to know just yet they’re gonna get everything organized in terms of continuity of government continuity of the monarchy, and then when they say it’s alright for the general public to know. That’s when the announcement will be made. Several years later, of course, After Diana died, I remember on September 11, I was up that morning eating breakfast. And at that point in time, the first plane had already hit one of the towers. And the news media was there and talking about how they, nobody was sure what had happened. But not long before. There were some stories going around in the media about airline pilots being coked out drunk, taking drugs, and just being not at all fit to pilot an airplane. And when I got up, and I saw the news of sitting there eating a bowl of cereal, and I thought, that’s awful, how awful somebody probably did something completely reckless. They were probably on drugs or alcohol, all of the above who knows? How awful how just diabolically awful that someone has done this. And we’re sitting there eating, this moment, for me is frozen in time, always will be, always will be. I’m sitting there as eating the cereal when the second plane hit. And I just froze. I didn’t I didn’t know how to react. I didn’t know what to think. I mean, it was so clear at that point. Well, this is not an accident. This is not one airline pilot decided to make a horrible decision to take drugs and alcohol and be impaired beyond all human reason. This is clearly a deliberate act. But there’s that moment where you can’t even process what you’ve seen. You can’t put any context around it, you can’t make sense of it. It’s like you’ve seen something so unimaginably awful, that your brain cannot process it. I’ll never I’ll never forget it, I’ll never forget it. And in so many ways, I wish I did not have that image inside my head. I wish that I had slept in that day or had had done something else. And I hadn’t seen it. Because if if I could take brain erase, you know, like Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind and get that image out. I would. Unfortunately, it’s one that I have to carry with me. And, you know, obviously I feel horrible for the people who were there that saw it happen in real time on the ground is awful, absolutely awful. But the longer that we live, the more of these events that we experience, the more of these things that we see. And that’s one of the reasons why I’m passionate about getting on the airwaves and ringing the bell and saying look, the same kind of things that I saw leading up to the.com Boom, followed by the.com bust, the same kind of things that I saw, leading up to the Great Recession slash global financial crisis. I am seeing it again. People who get into this, bury your head in the sand mentality of what could just never happen again. The bankers promised everything’s gonna be okay, maybe that was a once in a lifetime thing. If you when you get older, you just, you know, I’ve lived through this before I know what the warning signs are, because I’ve already been there and done that. And to me, it just it doesn’t make any logical sense to allow naivete and normalcy bias to keep you from doing what you need to do to be prepared, in my opinion. Can’t give anybody advice. Just from my own perspective. I feel that naivete and sunshine and roses will come at too high of a price for some people as we go into whatever downturn slash correction slash disaster could be be following us. on CNBC today, we see headlines such as Fed Chair Powell vows to raise rates to fight inflation until the job is done. Dow gains 100 points as Wall Street looks past pals comments signaling future rate hikes. Over on Yahoo Finance we read mortgage rates close in on 6% highest since 2008. The rate on the 30 year fixed mortgage jumped to 5.89% from 5.66%. The week prior according to Freddie Mac. Stocks swing as Wall Street moles Powell rate comments. Britain’s Queen Elizabeth the Second dies after 70 years on the throne. Why the Fed wants a strong dollar and falling stocks. Home Price is set to fall in 39% of US cities next year. fed on path for another point seven five point interest rate lift after pals inflation pledge. In some other related news on housing wire.com We find A city trims mortgage workforce amid reorganization bank set it has made a small number of staffing reductions due to internal streamlining of functions. Mm hmm. That doesn’t sound good. Also, on gallup.com, we have a poll titled inflation now causing hardship for majority in the US. Well, what do you know? Who can be surprised by that? So even though we saw that article not long ago on CNBC, in my opinion, it was a puff piece saying that Americans living paycheck to paycheck has gone down, inflation is easing, and I’m like, On what planet according to who? Okay, so on September 7, which was yesterday, Gallup released this poll saying no inflation is now causing hardship for a majority in the US. The story highlights are 56%, up from 49%. In January, say rising prices are causing hardship. More middle and upper income Americans are experiencing hardship. cutting back on spending, canceling travel are the most common actions and quote, if we scroll down a little bit, we also find the latest reading includes 12%, who described the hardship as severe. But remember, people are doing great. We have made it now to Friday, September the ninth over on CNBC, we have headlines such as confused about the housing market. Here’s what’s happening now. And what could happen next. Interesting. I’m going to bebop over to fortune.com for a second because they have a headline titled, a housing crash in Canada, Australia and New Zealand, it sure looks like it. There are frequent podcast listeners in all of those places. So as you know, I cannot give you advice and wouldn’t presume to what I would say is that if you live in one of those locations where you feel like the market could be vulnerable, and especially if it’s going to impact your ability to live your ability to find safe shelter, your livelihood, if you’re tied up in real estate or mortgage broking and that area, then I think it would be smart to just pay attention and read the tea leaves. I’m going to read a little bit from that fortune.com article now. For the first time in over a decade, residential real estate across the developed world appears to be vulnerable to falling prices. That’s what happens when Central Bank’s flip into interest rate hiking mode after an unprecedented run up in home prices. Hmm. Where have we seen this before? Gosh, you know, it’s just giving me so much deja vu to like, oh 50607, but I’m sure that’s coincidental. I’ll continue to read. But unlike the last time around the 2008 housing bust, the US won’t be at the epicenter of this housing pullback. At least that’s according to Goldman Sachs. This month, researchers at Goldman Sachs released the housing downturn a bigger deal down under and up north through the end of 2023. The paper predicts a crash like drop in home prices in New Zealand minus 21%. Australia minus 18%. In Canada minus 13%. For comparison, the US housing bubble saw home prices dropped 27% between the 2000 peak and the 2012. bottom end quote. Yeah, I’m not convinced that the US is going to be completely unscathed to because in my opinion, we’ve also been in an artificially manufactured bubble. But again, if you live in one of those places, and you feel like it could have an impact on your living situation or your ability to earn a living, I just don’t think this would be a wise time to be naive. Returning now to CNBC, we also see the headlines of Apple event this year had an unusually dark undertone as it leaned into emergency features. That kind of reminds me of the city of New York putting out information of how to create a bug out bag or a to go bag as they call it, in case you need to hightail it out of town in an emergency. Oh, and in the event of some kind of nuclear attack. Here’s what you would need to do. Again, I am sure all of this is just coincidental. Down closes more than 300 points higher stocks snap three week fed induced slide. Burger King unveils $400 million plan to revive us sales with investments in renovations and advertising. Feds Waller sees significant rate hike this month backs data dependent approach g7 looks to recruit more countries on Russian oil cap before negotiating deals. Officials say Bitcoin rallies 10% on a weaker US dollar and a reality check for the merge. Now we also say Bill Murray raised nearly $200,000 of crypto for charity, and a hacker stole it right away. You may have heard the old phrase if you don’t hold it, you don’t own it, or possession isn’t nine tenths of the law. Again, I cannot tell you what to do. I feel that for me personally, it’s scary to think about having money that’s just digits on a screen somewhere that could be vulnerable to hacking. I mean, think about $200,000 of crypto being raised for charity, and a hacker can steal it right away. That’s, that’s troubling. To me. It scares me. We also read Eli, Lilly’s obesity medication looks poised to become a 100 billion a year drug. Hmm. Yeah. So what could possibly go wrong there? I mean, Big Pharma has always, always had the best interest of the common man at heart. I mean, we need only look at the precious opioids they gifted us with to know how much they love and care for the average working class person. Sure. Sure. New York declare a state of emergency over polio to boost low vaccination rates. Wow. Well, that was just sugar plums and gumdrops. Over on Yahoo Finance, we see NASDAQ surge is 2.1%. Stocks snap three week losing streak, Ukraine’s battlefield gains are good for markets. That kind of weird and coincidental. Wall Street Fed officials warm to one another form to excuse me, well, that was a Freudian slip, wasn’t it? I’m not going to edit that out. I’m gonna edit it out. So much of a Freudian slip. Let me try this again. Wall Street, and Fed officials warm to another point seven 5% interest rate move. But I think what I said earlier is probably more accurate. New 401k statements could confuse folks about savings. I’m sure the only thing that’s going to be confusing is how little you freakin have in there anymore. Wow. So on an another related but unrelated note, you have talked before about using a calculator paying attention when you’re in a store to the price on the shelf versus what brings up being able to stick to a budget. I had a negative experience today in my local Dollar General. You know, I’ve talked before about how they’re not even keeping up any pretense they’re just having to put sticker over sticker over sticker over sticker every time you go in. Several things are gonna be more higher than they were the week before. This is just reality. Even though inflation is evading Wink, wink. Sure, of course it is. Yeah, right. So there was a concealer stick that was supposed to be $2. For those of you with perfect dewy skin, be glad some of us out here in the real world still occasionally get blemishes. And we have some areas that we need to tighten up a little bit here and there. So I had gotten a concealer stick that was supposed to be $2. But when I got to the register, it was 225. Okay, so it’s a quarter more, not not great. But whatever, I had a shampoo and conditioner set, they were supposed to be $2 apiece. So $4 All total, when I got to the register, they rang up $3.75 apiece, so almost double what they were supposed to have been on the shelf. And when I asked the cashier, what was going on, he just said, Hey, I’m sorry, we’re doing the best that we can to get the stickers out. But the price increases aren’t coming so fast. And then on top of that we’re short handed, like, we can only do so much. And so essentially, what I was told is you can either pay the price that rings up at the register, or you can put the items back and that’s that, you know, in times past, they would say okay, if it says $2 on the shelf, then that’s what we’re going to honor. In my experience this morning. That’s not what they were doing. I like to go sometimes it off be times where it’s just me and like 85 year olds, I much prefer that to when it’s like masses of people and everybody’s clogging up the aisles and kids are screaming, so I sometimes I’d like to go during the senior citizen times. And I’m just like, you know, if if I, if I needed that money to live, if I needed that money to be able to put additional food on the table, I will be really pissed off. And I know you might think okay, but it was just shampoo and conditioner and a concealer stick like that’s, that’s not the end of the world. True. But that’s not the point. It really irks me that the prices are changing in these places so fast that the staff members can’t even keep up with it. And then when you get the items to the register, there’s this cavalier attitude of well, you either want it at what it’s priced at in the computer or you don’t and if you don’t, that’s fine. We’ll take it off. But those are your only two options. I’ve heard other people complaining about customer service saying that customer service is dead. Now, that’s probably true to a large extent because we do live in a highly transactional society. There is the attitude by and large if if you don’t like it here, go down the road. Don’t leave, beat it. We don’t really want your business that bad anyway. And I’m not ripping on the people in this store. They’re really nice people, and it is not their fault. Again, to me, it’s just irritating and tiresome to go into the stores. And just week after week, basic items are more expensive than they were the week before. It’s frustrating, it makes it difficult to know how much that you can save how much that you can put back for a rainy day. I wish that I could say I see that getting better in the near term. But I really don’t. And I wish that I had some convenient answer to give you on what would solve all of the world’s problems, but I don’t, I don’t. And I hate to sound like an ER but I do really have flashbacks to what it was like in the Great Recession. What it was like in the.com, boom, money was just flying around, it was easy to get a job to give you a point of reference, when I was working. So the the first two years that I was doing my undergrad work, I worked in a bookstore. The last two years when my schedule started to get wonky. I was taking more specialized classes, sometimes they would be early in the morning, and other times it would be at night. And sometimes they’d be all jumbled up at weird times during the day. And I had to catch as catch can. I just worked on campus. I worked for a little while in the tutoring lab. And then I would also work as a TA. Because I was in pursuit of my bachelor’s degree. I couldn’t teach other people in college level classes, but I was able to teach adults who had come back to try to get their GED, so I was a TA for those classes. But to give you a point of reference, the college didn’t pay anything. I think I made minimum wage, and I only get got paid once a month. So I had to be very, very mindful of my money, so that I could pay for books and school supplies and whatnot. But I made more money when I was working part time as a clerk in a bookstore than I did when I graduated with my bachelor’s degree. And I had to go out and try to find college graduate level employment. But we’re talking about.com Boom, you know, things were getting hot in the market and money was flying around. So then I get out of college, as the bust years are going and it’s like man, during the boom cycle when everybody’s living off the fat of the land, it feels really good. And then you get in the bus cycle and people are like, no, sorry about you. We don’t have anything to offer you. I just feel like like that’s happening again. Maybe you don’t feel that way. Maybe that’s not what you see coming. I don’t know, all I can do is speak on what I’m seeing out in the market and what’s bearing out to be true in my reality and in my part of the Midwest. I know that’s not sunshine and roses. Sorry. Maybe one day, I’ll say You know what I can suspend the Saturday broadcast. There’s nothing else of a economic hardship and economic poopoo storm to talk about. We’re back in the money and everything is fine. I don’t see that coming in the immediate term. I hope however, I’m wrong. I really do. In the meantime, stay safe, stay sane. And I will see you in the next episode.
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