03 Sep Saturday Broadcast 14
Key topics:
✔️ ICYMI news, 8/29 – 9/2.
✔️ Media still on that “labor shortage!” train. 🦜
✔️ Rich folks are spending and not feeling the pinch of inflation. Meanwhile, we’re given contradictory information that everyone else is doin’ better, not living paycheck to paycheck as much, yet also they are using buy now/pay later for FOOD. 🤦🏻♀️
✔️ Thus far, I am batting 1000 on my job market predictions.
Links I mention in this episode:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fednow-payment-system-launch-2023-194814075.html
https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/08/29/federal-reserves-fednow-set-for-mid-2023-debut/
https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/fed-up-junior-bankers-flee-goldman-5421852/
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/30/jolts-july-2022.html
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/corporate-landlords-blackstone-gobbling-mobile-174500027.html
https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/freelancing-is-in-5976482/
https://www.buzzsprout.com/1125110/10858972
https://www.buzzsprout.com/1125110/11205137
https://nypost.com/2022/08/30/goldman-sachs-lifts-covid-protocols-urges-workers-back-to-office/
https://www.buzzsprout.com/1125110/10642417
Need more? Email me: https://causeyconsultingllc.com/contact-causey/
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Siren courtesy of Pixabay.
Transcription by Otter.ai. Please forgive any typos!
Hello, Hello and thanks for tuning in recording this portion of the broadcast on Monday, August 29. Seems a little crazy to be saying August 29. I know I know don’t wish your life away but I’ve pretty much had enough for the summer. I am definitely ready for fall. We’ve had some of that sudden flash flood rain. So we’ve been in the flash drought but then earlier today we had huge thunderstorms that dropped torrential rain blight, blowing howling winds and torrential amounts of rain standing and ponding in some places, so it’ll be interesting to see if that helps out the pastures if it helps the gardens I certainly hope so. Lord knows we need it. In terms of what I’m seeing bird’s eye view this part of the Midwest in the stores still fronting still turning like loaves of bread sideways. And in certain places, it’s like they’re still making the attempt to have it seem like there’s more on the shelf than there actually is. Other stores have just given up and there’s just gaps. Things like laundry detergent, peanut butter, bread, lunch meat, a lot of the back to school type items are low in stock, not a lot of variety on what is there. I’m also noticing that my local Walmart is starting to get in there Halloween decorations, and a lot of the lower level like cheaper decorations, even though they’re much more expensive than they typically would be. A lot of the cheaper and more affordable decorations are going quickly. So I do think people are interested in the holidays. They want to decorate it’s just perhaps they’re having to really clamp down on their budget to be able to do it. Over on CNBC. Today we have headlines such as expect Apple to show four new iPhones and an updated Apple watch next week. Dow closes 100 points lower as sell off continues. Treasury yields surge rate hikes won’t bring down inflation as long as spending stays high. 64% of consumers worry about shrink Felician here’s what to watch for. fixed mortgage rates will fall to four, four and a half percent in 2023. Fannie Mae estimates Okay, interesting. fewer Americans say they are living paycheck to paycheck as inflation begins to ease. Well, what do you know about that? That sounds great. Mortgage rates are going to drop fewer people are living paycheck to paycheck. Inflation is easing. Wow. So I definitely want to click on this article. About fewer people are living paycheck to paycheck, inflation begins to ease. Well, that sounds like something really wonderful hopium there. Under the key points, we find more than half of all US consumers currently live paycheck to paycheck. According to a recent report. However, the number of Americans who say they are stretched thin has started to fall as inflation pressures ease. lower income workers have been particularly squeezed by higher prices this year, but who really gives a rip about them? Okay, the article doesn’t say that. That’s my editorial comment. So let’s get into this article. We read consumers who have been squeezed by higher prices may be experiencing a little relief. fewer adults now say they are living paycheck to paycheck. According to a new Lending Club report. As of July 59% of Americans said they lived paycheck to paycheck down from 61% in June, but still higher than a year ago when the number of adults who felt stretched too thin was 54%. Okay, great. Great. So I guess we’re all supposed to just seal clap that the number has gone down from 61% to 59%. Okay, I’ll continue to read. lower income workers have been hit the hardest by price spikes this year, particularly for food and other staples. Since those expenses account for a bigger share of the budget studies show roughly three quarters say this again roughly three quarters of consumers annually earning less than 50,063% of those earning between 50k and 100k. Were living paycheck to paycheck in July based on lending clubs numbers. As far as signs that inflation may have already peaked. We read recent signs that inflation has passed its peak and maybe cooling off is welcome news for cash strapped Americans. cash strapped I thought everybody was doing great. July’s Consumer Price Index report finally showed that the prices consumers pay for a variety of goods and services started to ease after average gas prices fell below $4 For the first time since March and are now down to $3.85. Now I guess we’re all supposed to ignore the fact that that’s still way higher than gas prices have been. I guess we’re also supposed to ignore that we’ve been reading A strategic petroleum reserves. Wonder what’s going to happen when that runs dry. Also, I wonder what’s going to happen after the midterm because doesn’t seem convenient that we’re getting this hopium leading up to a midterm election year. And don’t Don’t accuse me of being partisan. I would be saying the same thing regardless of who was in power because you know, that in the most political I’ll get on this podcast is to tell you I’m registered Independent. I don’t have a dog in the hunt for the Republicans or the Democrats. Just big no, thanks on that. But, you know, that doesn’t seem kind of coincidental, but we’re getting we’re getting a lot hopium here ahead of November. As a result, real inflation adjusted hourly earning hourly earnings for the month rose point 5%, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Oh, okay. Great. Great, great point. 5%. Are you noticing that that’s making a huge difference in your bottom line? Do you feel that your pressures financially have started to ease? I mean, what are you seeing in real time in your part of the country or in your part of the world? Does it feel like sunshine and roses? Does it feel like you’ve been in a vise grip but finally, it’s starting to ease up or does that sound like a lot of hot air and foolishness to you? Over on Yahoo Finance, it’s a bit more of a mixed bag, we find housing experts says this might be the worst time you could buy. Mortgage rates have jumped by more than two percentage points since the start of the year. tech leads stocks lower treasury yields jump amid hawkish fed Labor Board says unlawful for Tesla to ban wearing union shirts. Feds Instant Payment Service fed now to launch by July 2023. Americans are retiring later in life versus 30 years ago, who can be surprised by that? US mortgage lenders are starting to go bankrupt how this one factor could be triggering the worst surge of failures since 2008. holding out hope for clear skies and real estate. You may be waiting a while. I feel like a lot of this is who can be surprised by this type of news, you know, in revisiting the great recession and the housing crisis of 2007 2008. The things that were leading up to the bubble bursting. I have deja vu sorry. Now I know that that upsets the paid corporate shills, the bots, the trolls, the man explainers. The weekend drills move or crowd but read the tea leaves. You know, in that documentary I watched on Java discover they showed the same kind of shoddily built suburb in my opinion, okay in my opinion. shoddily built suburbanite tract housing getting pooped out basically overnight, just rows and rows of suburbanite tract houses. And the same thing has been happening again. Now here we are US mortgage lenders are starting to go bankrupt. How this one factor could be triggering the worst surge of failures since 2008. You know, we have hedge funds gearing up to buy cheap houses, because they know what’s coming. They see the writing on the wall. So I would much rather take a look at what these billionaires and individuals I’m just trying to think of the right word to put it you know people people that are Sharky people that are looking to make a deal and somebody else’s misfortune like I would rather take a look at what they’re doing and what they’re predicting than to listen to some AI troll bot man explainer who’s stuck in never Neverland. We also find some luxury consumers are utterly immune to inflation, according to a former LVMH exec talked about that before too. There are certain sectors of the economy as I believe it is a K shaped economy. And I’m not an economist, professional financial planner, advisor blah, blah, blah. This is not financial advice, nor am I holding it out to be I personally believe that we are in a K shaped economy. So we have people that are you know, they’re getting squeezed you know, we’re getting these hopium articles about inflation is peaked and it’s easing fewer people I mean, maybe only one or two ever firm say that they’re living paycheck to paycheck now the working poor are still getting absolutely pummeled but who gives a rip about them? We’re let’s let’s talk about luxury consumers. Let’s talk about how people are still shopping at places like Gucci and Louie Vuitton and you know, they’re fine with it. They’re just immune to it. So who cares? To me this is all yet again, a sign of the K shaped economy the rich getting richer and not really feeling any kind of a pinch and then the working poor having to go to Dollar Tree to buy cans of beans, because that’s the best they can do. Somebody is going to get really wealthy off of this. I don’t know who it is. I don’t know who’s going to come to us hat in hand and ask for another industry bailout who’s going to be tube Big to Fail, but somebody’s going to get rich off of this financial crisis because they always freaking do. You know, it’s like the episode I published earlier today Mephistopheles in Manhattan, you know, the lawyer saying, well, if somebody offered me $550 million to screw over, like everybody in the world, I might have to think about Uh huh. And it’s like, yeah, history may not repeat, but it sure does rhyme. Now, if we click on Feds Instant Payment Service fed now set to launch by July 2023. Find something else is fairly interesting. The Federal Reserve is on track to deliver an instant payment service called fed now between May and July of 2023. The central bank’s clearest timeline yet for a new system enabling settlement of us payments in seconds. What is this about? Exactly? Huh, let’s read a little bit more and see what we can find out. Fed now provides the cost reduction and settlement speed of stable coin payments without the need to convert them into and out of tokens. Fed now could then slow the growth of these tokens which may help address policy concerns regarding stable coins. rolling out the Fed now system would involve upgrading back office processes evaluating accounting procedures to accommodate a seven business day week, arranging liquidity providers and putting in place new technology to interface with customers. The Fed maintains making funds immediately available will help Americans living paycheck to paycheck, or small businesses with cash flow constraints by avoiding late payment fees or freeing up working capital for small businesses to finance growth. Analysts say fed now could also cut demand for payday loans as consumers won’t have to wait for a check to clear for businesses there could also be an upside for paying for better paying suppliers on time and businesses can embrace it as a less costly and more certain way to accept consumer payments. The Fed now system would help the government transmit emergency relief payments to Americans faster, avoiding making citizens wait for checks as during the pandemic. Financial regulators also want Faster Payments because it reduces systemic risk. During the financial crisis, the fear was that the financial system would shut down because banks would not trust that other banks would make good on intraday credit and quote. So that still raises a lot of questions and opens up many cans of worms. For one thing, get your story straight, which isn’t is it that inflation is easing, people are doing great. Fewer people say they’re living paycheck to paycheck, things are getting better, or is it that things are getting worse. In fact, there’s so much worse that people can’t wait two or three days for a check. To clear the bank. They need to have money right? Damn. Now we need to have a currency that functions 24 hours a day. Oh, and by the way, it also needs to function to disperse government payments to the general public. Long dramatic pause there just for you to figure out what is actually happening with that. Coin. desk.com has a headline which reads Federal Reserve’s fed now real time payments set for mid 2023 debut, the instant payments service is seen as a step towards eventual rollout of a C, B, D. C. If you don’t know what that is, look it up because in on some platforms, you actually cannot talk about it. When I went to LinkedIn to visit the side panel, the very first post that popped up in my feed was actually someone saying that their position was being eliminated, they need to find a full time permanent role as soon as possible. It needs to be fully remote, and because of their family situation, they cannot be out of work for long. I expect that we will see more posts like that. And if you’re listening to this broadcast, please do not be caught off guard. Know the warning signs that a layoff is coming and try as best you can before the Poopoo hits the fan, rough out a job loss survival plan. Do you know who would be your first phone call in the event of a layoff? I get it spouse, partner or parent someone close to you who’s your person? I’m sure it will be the very first phone call. Who will be the first job related phone call? Who are you going to call that might be able to help you out in a business capacity. Do you have a network? Do you have a group of people with a high know like and trust factor? Are you hoping that recruiters and staffing agencies or throwing a post out on LinkedIn maybe I can crowd surf my way into a new job? You know for some people that works out for some it doesn’t. And I can’t I can’t give you advice but I can tell you in my opinion if it were me, I would want to know that I had roughed out a job loss survival plan. Over on the side panel for LinkedIn news we find Disney’s magic comes at a cost airlines to keep flights grounded. Fed up Junior bankers flee Goldman COVID outbreaks, Vex Google’s are to Musk says we need to use oil and gas. Netflix turns 25 In VCs must not see TV budget ideas. New York City bets big on new office buildings. Yeah, I’m sure they do. I’m sure they do because the thesis is not varied folks. They want you back bump, bump, bump bump. Yeah, they want you back button seat in that cube farm note, nobody’s hiding it really anymore. It does make me feel old to think about Netflix being 25. I mean, I was obviously a full grown adult when I was using Netflix. But I remember when you had to get DVDs in the mail, there was a big deal and get your DVD and the old snail mail. And now this is interesting from NBC, because they’re talking about reducing their primetime TV hours from three hours per evening to two hours per evening. And giving that last hour back to the local market so that they can figure out what kind of programming they want to put on. It’ll be interesting to see how that goes. There’s a lot of network TV that we don’t even watch anymore. We do I will admit to being a big fan of any of the Gordon Ramsay shows. And I’m you know, there’s certain cooking shows in general that I really enjoy. And I do like to cook so things like Hell’s Kitchen and master chef, I’ll usually watch those. But as far as watching like dramas or comedies on network TV, most of the time we don’t I was just I don’t know. Maybe we’re maybe we’re old sticks with me. But I guess this is another interesting story about the mass exodus that came from Goldman Sachs. I’ll read that for you now. Goldman Sachs has been hit with a wave of departures Sources tell Business Insider in the New York Post. Both outlets report that half a dozen Junior bankers left the investment banks healthcare desk in the past week, citing frustration with lower than expected bonuses and a pressure cooker environment. In addition, at least five other associates left the same desk in recent months. Insider writes, Goldman’s bonuses were high and 2021 Thanks to record deal making. But this year, the bank is reportedly looking to cut costs as the pace of deals slows substantially. While some turnover is common after banks pay out bonuses. The coordinated effort is unusual and underscores the resentment and animosity many analysts feel towards the bank sources told the post. Yeah, it’s getting hairy out there. It is what what is going to happen in in banking, what’s going to happen on Wall Street? I don’t know wouldn’t claim to know. But I feel like it’s almost like little breadcrumbs. We’re getting these little breadcrumbs of information being fed to us about here’s what’s happening over here and over there. Food shortages, water shortages, drought. The people at this company are having a walkout people are fed up in this industry. They’ve had enough over here layoffs in sectors that were considered to be darlings of the economy. Where’s all of it going? I don’t know. But I think it’s really important to be not scared, but prepared. Today it is Tuesday, August 30. on CNBC, we have headlines such as stocks extend their losing streak a third day, Dow closes down 300 points. Feds Williams pushes back on market expectations of a rate cut next year. Snap will lay off 20% of staff report says Goldman Sachs to lift vaccination COVID-19 requirements in most offices next month. Doesn’t that seem coincidental? I wonder just wondering here. just spitballing ideas around. I wonder if that has anything to do with the walkouts they’ve been having they’re going to need to replace those people that left and I wonder also, if it’s because there’s been a real push towards return to Office. The mayors in these big cities have been talking about how we all need to cross pollinate. We need to be downtown eating and shopping and working. Gosh, you know, I’m sure that’s just one big coincidence. We also see job openings top 11 point 2 million in July well above estimate and nearly double the available workers. Well, how do you do? Isn’t that wonderful and fantastic news. So if we click on that we find in the TLDR key points available job positions in July totaled 11.2 4 million for the month well in excess of the 10 point 3 million fact set estimate. That total also was nearly double the total pool of available workers which stood at 5.6 7 million for the month. In the article we find there were nearly 1 million more job openings than expected in July and inflation Mary sign that the US labor market is still extremely tight. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. available positions totaled 11.2 4 million for the month well in excess of the 10 point 3 million fact set estimate. According to the job openings and labor turnover survey aka the jolts report. The total was about 200,000 higher than the 11.0 4 million in June, a number revised up from the initially reported 10 point 7 million Federal Reserve officials watch the jolts numbers closely for signs of slack in hiring. The July numbers reinforced that there is still a considerable shortage of workers labor shortage labor shortage, there is still a considerable shortage of workers for available positions, with openings outnumbering available workers by just shy of a two to one margin 2.1 open jobs for every one unemployed person. That in turn is inflationary as employers are forced to offer higher compensation to attract workers at a time when prices are rising near their fastest pace in more than 40 years. Hiring declined during the month falling to 6.3 8 million quits a closely watched metric for worker confidence also dropped down to 4.1 8 million as those leaving their jobs as a percentage of the workforce declined 1/10 of a percentage point to 2.7%. still relatively high by historical standards, changing jobs has proven lucrative during the COVID era, with switchers seeing an average 6.7% annual wage growth rate well ahead of the 4.9% rate of those who have stayed in their positions, according to the Atlanta Fed and quote, will that change? I think it already is. I’m not seeing nearly as many people that want to shuffle around, people are starting to be more measured and careful in whether or not they want to Job hop right now. Now you will always have people with the attitude of I’m never not on the job market. I’ll always listen, if you call me and you want to pitch something to me, I am more than happy to get on the phone with you. But the margin of people who are in that category are getting lower. I mean, it seems to me that the willingness of people Yeah, sure. Let’s talk about it. Yeah, submit my resume, let’s do this all Hippity, hop hop all over the market. Those people seem to be dwindling down. And I’m starting to see more people saying you know what, I think I’m just gonna ride it out here where I am, let me let me kind of get a finger on the pulse of where the market is in six months, you can call me back then or, you know, I think I’m being treated pretty well, where I’m at, I want to ride it out here and just see how things go. People are just not not as hip on wanting to hop across the market like they were this time last year. I mean, this time last year was just really insane, just as it was with the housing market. And so in the same way that the housing market is starting to cool off and buyers who were treated like dirt last summer saying, You know what, y’all can keep your doodoo poop houses, we were just not we’re not going to take that bait. Job seekers are saying, wait a minute, wait a minute. If I’m in someplace that I think is decent, I I’m gonna stay there for a while and write it out. I don’t think that I want to take any unnecessary chances right now. And in my opinion, that’s not a bad thing. I don’t think it’s a bad idea to look before you leap and determine Am i going from the frying pan into the furnace? Or am I just trading one frying pan for another frying pan, and potentially giving up any benefits and tenure that I may have established at this place? Critical thinking and using good judgment? It is never a bad idea, in my opinion. Over on Yahoo Finance, we see stocks slide for third straight day as rate pressures weigh on markets. US job market doesn’t say recession, according to the Richmond Fed chief. Hmm. You know, it’s almost like, you know, I just don’t know here. But it seems to me that it’s almost like the Fed is using the job market as the ultimate barometer. As if to say, well, well, maybe we’re in an old school technical recession, but not really because people are doing great just look at the job market. We can keep boosting up interest rates, new things are probably gonna get tight, but it’s not going to be too awful bad because look at the job market. labor shortage. You know, it’s almost like that’s what’s happening but I’m just not quite sure. HP earnings miss as slowing economy takes its toll. Goldman on housing market further to fall. Corporate landlords like Blackstone are gobbling up mobile home parks and rapidly driving up rents In that article we find manufactured homes or mobile homes are considered the most affordable non subsidized housing option in America. That’s because the owners own only the prefabricated unit and not the land under the home. Well, I’ll break in long enough to say that depends on where you’re at. If you are in a mobile home park, that’s typically the case but sometimes out in the country and rural areas, you will find people who owned both the prefabricated unit and the land underneath it. So when they’re saying this, they’re speaking about mobile home tracks or mobile home parks. Specifically, I’ll continue to read, the land is usually leased from the landlord of a trailer park. The average monthly rent for a mobile home in 2021 was $593. That’s significantly lower than the average one bedroom condo rental rate of $1,450. The mobile Park rental also often includes utilities and insurance rents typically rise 4% to 6% annually and renters have the flexibility to move their housing unit to another park. These factors make the manufactured home highly attractive to low income households. I’m going to skip down and read a little bit more under the heading investing in mobile home parks. Factors such as below market rents and disrepair. Make mobile home parks attractive for investors seeking to add value seeking to add value. The typical mobile home park lot costs $10,000 which means 80 Lots would be worth $800,000. On average. Put simply the entry price for these parks is much lower than multifamily apartments and condo buildings across the country. professional investors can also raise rents significantly to improve the valuation of the property. Attracting tenants with higher incomes or improving the parks amenities and infrastructure are other value add strategies that make this asset class appealing and to quote a couple of things I want to note here you know, we’ve seen this push whether we’re talking about six flags or Walmart, we’ve seen this push towards kind of forget about the working poor sort of over them anyway, don’t think they’re gonna have a pot to pee in. So let’s try to attract tenants with higher incomes. So now this is even being done and mobile home parks attracted trying to attract tenants with higher incomes. I find that interesting. Also is the headline reminds us corporate landlords like Blackstone are gobbling up mobile home parks and rapidly driving up rents. Now I’ve said this before, I cannot give you financial or economic advice. I’m not purporting to do that. Just stating my opinion here and opining for your entertainment only. In my opinion, you don’t listen to what corporate America says. Because we’re getting fed all of these mealy mouthed messages. I’ll be talking about that in the blog post. I wrote on Patreon for this coming Sunday. On the one hand, we’re being told that people are doing great, fewer people are living paycheck to paycheck, inflation is easing. But then at the same time today on LinkedIn, we’re told consumers racked up Buy now pay later debt for food. So which isn’t is it that people are doing great now forget the fact that they’re having to do buy now pay later for food. And they’re going to pawnshops. Some pawn shops are at a point where they’re not even taking in any more merchandise, because they have more money going out than they have money coming in. Ignore all of that inflation is abating. People are doing great. Oh, and look at this jolts report. There’s all these jobs, just abundance of jobs, there’s still a labor shortage. Well, where are these jobs? What kind of jobs? Are they? Are they jobs that pay a living wage? Or are they jobs that are still minimum wage? Are they jobs that are maybe two or $3 above minimum wage, but not really enough for someone to be able to live in a particular area? Are they part time jobs? Are they jobs directed more towards like high school or college kids? What I feel like Seinfeld, who are these people? Where are these jobs? Where are they and what kind of wages do they pay if all of these millions of jobs are supposedly open? It also in my opinion is pushing this narrative of entire generations are lazy. entire classes of people are lazy. Nobody wants to work anymore. Everybody’s just a deadbeat or conversely they hit it big and crypto they became a millionaire. They sold their house at a grossly inflated price and they live off the grid now. They bought a tiny home somewhere in the sticks or they’re living out of an RV. They’re living in grandma’s basement on STEMI money from 2020 they somehow blipped off the radar like the fan OHS finger snap in The Avengers that’s one of my favorite conspiracy theories is that all of these people just supposedly got blipped off of the radar completely they just literally don’t exist on the planet anymore. I just Yeah, okay. Sure. But but which isn’t, you know, so this is why you can You’re not, in my opinion. Listen to what corporate America says. You cannot listen to what corporate owned and corporate finance media says. Watch what they do. Watch what corporate America does. Blackstone has got all this money hoard it up because they know they’re gonna be able to get houses on the cheap. Now they’re gonna gobble up mobile home parks and drive up the rents and they want to do property improvements to try to make higher income people attracted to trailer parks, why are higher income people going to want to do that? Are you telling us that higher income people are going to have to do that? Because they’re having to put their food on Buy now pay later plans? What What kind of economic doodoo storm is coming down the pike that this is the kind of preparation that they’re making? I don’t have a firm answer for that. I’m just wondering out loud what on God’s green earth are we about to experience? Wow. Also, not to go unnoticed. If you go over to Forbes you will find the article. Biden’s student loan forgiveness could be taxable in some states. In his article, we learn that that student loan forgiveness is not supposed to be taxable at the federal level. But depending upon what state you’re in, it could be seen as income, you may have to report it. I’ll read from the article now. According to the Tax Foundation, 13 states could treat Biden student loan forgiveness initiative as taxable income to borrowers. These states are Arkansas, Hawaii, Idaho, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Mississippi, New York, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia and Wisconsin. The Tax Foundation estimates that borrowers borrowers could incur anywhere from 300 to over $1,000 in state taxes depending on the specific state if they receive $10,000 in student loan forgiveness through the Biden plan. These figures could double for Pell Grant recipients who are eligible to receive up to $20,000 in student loan forgiveness and quote. Hmm I mean, I really don’t even know quite what to say on that. I will just leave it alone right there and let you decide for yourself. Today it is Wednesday, August 31. The last day of August. We’re less than a month away from the Fall Equinox. And I’m so ready. Bring on the Halloween. Bring on the scary movies. Bring on the pumpkins bring on the candy even though I think we’re supposed to have a shortage of Halloween candy this year. I don’t care. I’m just ready. I’m so ready for the fall and winter months. Over on CNBC. We have headlines today such as Walmart owned Sam’s Club raises annual membership fee for the first time in nine years. s&p 500 falls for a fourth day. Putting summer market comeback in doubt. Bed Bath and Beyond announces store closures layoffs and new financing to fix struggling business. Snap shares pop on plans to cut 20% of staff as part of major restructuring. FinTech firm Klarna has losses triple after aggressive us expansion and mass layoffs. Over on the side panel for LinkedIn news, we find Goldman cuts COVID rules in our to push. So another prediction that I made come to life. I think it was just in the portion I recorded yesterday where I was talking about Hmm, I wonder if this has anything to do with the people who walked out and said take this job and shove it they left so they’re going to need to fill those positions presumably. Oh, and also the mayors of the cities have talked about how people need to be back cross pollinating. You know I wonder if that has anything to do with the softening of the restrictions hmm oh me. Oh my I just wonder now we’re being told officially Goldman cuts COVID rules in our to push. Yep, here we go. Snap to cut fifth of workforce historic drop in US life expectancy. Jobs switchers see the biggest raises according to ADP did college work for millennials. These US cities have highest rents, working hours, pick your own bed bath and beyond in survival mode. Business Travel nixed for many COVID boosters ready in time for fall. Now there’s also a story that they published earlier today on LinkedIn called freelancing is in. I’ll drop a link to it so you can check it out for yourself. I’ll also drop a link to the episode I did about job market predictions, which I published on June 30. Thus far, you know I will toot my own horn tu tu tu tu tu and say all of the job market predictions that I have made in that app Episode have come true. I’m batting 1000 Right now things are things are going, as I predicted that they would. One of the predictions that I made in that episode was that more people would turn to freelancing and the gig economy not necessarily because they wanted to, but because they felt like they had to in order to make ends meet, and that that arena would get quite crowded quite fast. Now here we are. I’ll read the blurb for you now. The future is freelance. According to McKinsey’s latest survey, about 36% of employed Americans, the equivalent of 58 million people identify as independent workers, up from 27% in 2016. That means more than a third of the country is working a contract or gig role from substitute teaching to driving for Uber to freelance writing. Meanwhile, economic uncertainty in the labor labor shortage means companies are more open to independent workers right now. A separate survey found 78% of business leaders reported being more likely to hire freelancers over full time employees in preparation for a potentially worsening economy and quote, yeah, so aside from tooting my own horn, that this is another job market prediction come true. I want to reread the last line of that blurb for you. A separate survey found 78% of business leaders reported being more likely to hire freelancers over full time employees in preparation for a potentially worsening economy. As I’ve told you before, don’t pay that much attention to what corporate America says. Watch what they do. If rich people are suddenly hoarding gold, and people are hoarding food, what does that tell you? Well, it to me, it tells me that they are preparing for some kind of economic poopoo store and a food shortage to hit Otherwise, why would they be doing it? Same thing at the last line here in preparation for a potentially worsening economy. They’d rather bring on Freelancer contractor labor over a full time employee that’s going to have to be on boarded, they’ll have to have benefits and they will represent No offense. I’m not trying to sound cold when I say this, but they’ll represent more of a drain on the company’s resources. If they leave. If you go through the process of onboarding a full time employee, they stay for a month and say peace out this was not for me, I’m done. Well, then you have all the cost of off boarding them resuming the search getting somebody else on boarded and it can really become a nightmare in a high turnover position. So these business leaders are saying, Hey, we think the economy is potentially going going going going going to get worse. So we would rather hire freelancers over full time employees at this point. Do not bury your head in the sand on this issue. In my opinion, as I’ve said many times before, naivete is coming at too high of a price. Also on LinkedIn today, in a bit of throwing a Molotov cocktail into your feed, Kevin O’Leary decided to double down and he recorded a video titled quiet quitting is a cancer to culture. The write up for the post which I will drop a link to it so that you can go and watch the video for yourself. The write up says nobody is asking you to work nine to five, they’re asking you to get your job done. When you bring someone in that slams their laptop shut at five o’clock on the dot. What kind of company culture are you cultivating? He triples down in the video by saying if you bring someone into your company who slams their laptop shut at 5pm you are introducing a cancer into your company culture. He does acknowledge that it really doesn’t matter nowadays, if you’re working at 2am or 6am it’s about getting your job done. And that part of the video I agree with it is about the end result it is about getting your job done and I choose to work with clients who they don’t care if I’m button seed in my home office at noon, or I’m button seed in my home office at midnight. They don’t care as long as I am providing the deliverable on time and who cares about the rest of it? You know, I try my best to avoid the mic the micromanagers the NED the NiNis the Nancy the nitpicker the always have one more question always want to be on top of everything that you’re doing. They need constant updates. Please give me an update every five minutes camp out on a slack channel and be available all the time. No, no, no. Where I think it becomes divergent is to say okay, it really doesn’t matter if you’re at work at 2am or 2pm. But the same time what the hell’s wrong with you if you shut your laptop off at five and walk off? Well, to me it’s a contradictory statement. If you’re getting your job done, if the Shi T is getting done well and on time, then who cares? Who cares, cares, cares, cares, cares, whether you’re working at 2am, or 2pm. But you can’t have it both ways. You can’t say it’s fine for you to work at any point in time. And as long as you’re getting your stuff done, your poop is in a group, I don’t care. But then at the same time, turn around and say there’s something wrong with you if you shut your laptop at 5pm. Well, if the work is getting done, and what do you care? What if my shift is from 12pm to 8pm? And that’s the amount of time that I’m working well, if I close the laptop at eight o 5pm. Once the to you something is not quite right here is like there’s too many contradictions in terms. Now at the end of this video, he quadruples down by saying, Okay, I if you’re the type of person that walks into a job interview, and you say I only work nine to five, and that’s it. Five o’clock, I’m done. And don’t ask anything of me until 9am. The next morning, I want to find you. I want to find people who are of this mindset and get you into my competitors. Wow. Yeah. Wow. And wow. And wow. Naturally, as you would expect, on a platform such as this, you have some people that are licking the boots, Oh, I agree, this is great. And then you have other people that are getting their feathers ruffled, and they’re upset about what he has stated in this video. I have mixed feelings about it again, because it’s like, all you’re going to do is fanned the flames, the algorithm is going to see that this is getting engagement good, bad or indifferent. And they’re going to keep showing it to more people. You know, there’s an old saying in Hollywood, that even bad publicity is good publicity. There’s one particular person who wrote a comment that I think is worth repeating here on the air. And he writes, quiet quitting is so ridiculous, the corrupt pyramid scheme of unregulated capitalism is so reliant on us, the gullible working class to go above and beyond to do things are not paid to do that they had to make up a pejorative for not doing it all in an attempt to make you feel guilty and to further exerting yourself for their bottom line. I agree. Where I would, again, where I start to diverge from this comment is I don’t think we have unregulated capitalism. I’m politically agnostic on this podcast, the most I will tell you is I think we have crony capitalism. I think that we have obvious collusion and entanglement between corporate America, Wall Street, the billionaires and the fat cats and the government. Otherwise, they could not come to you and say this industry is just too important. They’re too big to fail. We need you, the American taxpayer to bail these industries out by God. That wouldn’t be happening. You wouldn’t have presidents going on TV saying homeownership is good for America. Because what would they care? You would have individual liberty you would be able to live your life however you see fit, what would it matter to them if you want to pull an RV down to the lake and live there and have a perpetual camp out? What’s it to them? Why do you need at home ownerships? Good for America? You know, in that episode I recorded where I talked about how he creepily leans in and he’s like, it’s good for the economy. That’s that’s what it’s really about. It’s good for the economy. But no, I don’t think that we have unregulated capitalism, nor do I think that we’re in a free market. As Bill Hicks always said, if you think you’re living in a free society, try going somewhere without money and see how far you get. The other parts of the comment are spot on. Is it a pyramid scheme? Sure. Seems to me to be are you being gold into trying to do more for less, it also seems that way too. I’ve talked before about how I believe we’re in a K shaped economy where these wealthy people are getting wealthier and wealthier. They’re still publishing articles on Barron’s dot com and Yahoo Finance about how rich people are spending. They still got money to burn, they’re going in Louis Vuitton are going in our mess. They’re not worried about it, they are doing great, well, good for them. Because meanwhile is other people are getting squeezed out of the middle class. And they’re now lower middle class or working poor, and people who are working poor are living at the poverty level. So glad to know that somebody is able to go in and get designer clothing bully for them. I just, here’s what I would say about quiet quitting. I know I’ve said it before. And at the risk of being a broken record. I even put together a little YouTube video and publish it, I’ll drop a link to it if you want to check it out. It’s not about doing what’s best for corporate America, they most assuredly are going to take care of themselves trust and believe they are not stunting you. They they are not they’re going to do what’s best for the shareholders and the investors and the Board of Directors, not the little guy. One big club, you and I are not at it. So in my mind, it’s not about going above and beyond to try to line somebody else’s pockets. When we’re talking about survival mode. We’re talking about going through a deep economic contraction whether you want to use the R word and call it recession, or whether you want to get really scary and use the D word and call it depression, whatever it whatever you want to put on it 1970s era stagflation hyperinflation people in the Weimar Republic having to buy bread with wheelbarrows of Deutsche Marks, whatever, whatever you want to put on. It’s not about doing what’s best for politicians or corporate America, it’s about doing what you have to do to survive. And if it would not be in your best interest to lose your job in a depression or a situation where unemployment is high, then in my opinion, you have to factor that into your decision making. What would I need to do to hang on to this job to get through the crisis, then I can make further decisions, then I can job hop again, then I can go out on my own. Think about in my opinion, it’s not advice, I cannot give you advice. In my opinion, it would be savvy to think about what’s best for you and your family. And if that does not include a job loss or a layoff. You have to factor that in to the day to day workings of how you are with your employer. Just some food for thought. Today it is Thursday, September 1. Ah, meteorological summer How’s that for a $10 word meteorological summer has ended. I know it’s not officially the Fall Equinox just yet, but we’re getting closer. Today on Yahoo Finance. We have headlines such as s&p 500. Dow finished higher after huge comebacks to start September. US stocks finished mixed on Thursday as the s&p 500 and Dow fought off sharp losses and the Nasdaq fell just point 3% After losing as much as 2% earlier in the session, where Wall Street’s mega bank stand on RTO hmm, pretty sure we can guess. A third of borrowers will have student loans wiped out according to Bank of America, credit scores stagnate after pandemic aid disappears. From free ice cream to for eternity leave. Here are 10 Cool and unusual employee perks you’ll want at your next job. The byline reads as the labor market enters the era of quiet quitting, employers are adapting to the changing demands of workers. Interesting, interesting. Yes. So some of us are old enough to remember the.com Boom, followed naturally by the.com Bust. And it was very popular at that point in time to tout perks. Whether it was the jelly of the Month Club, a slide in the office, an on site gym, here’s the deal. Can you mail a slide in the office to the mortgage company? Can you give jelly of the Month Club to your landlord to stay in your apartment? Can you pay your car with it? No. I thought that this myth of boat in my opinion, bogus perks had been debunked who is interested in going back to the office or in staying at a job over free ice cream? Really? What does Friday’s jobs report mean for the market too hot and stocks could tumble says market Pro. The byline reads with Federal Reserve Chair Powell last week, reaffirming plans to keep raising interest rates to bring down inflation. Despite the risk of recession. Friday’s monthly US jobs report may once again carry risks for the stock market. Over on CNBC, it’s a similar scene, we find dow s&p 500 close higher to snap four day losing streak and begin September. Amazon took all US solar rooftops offline last year after a flurry of fires and electrical explosions. Critical August jobs report expected to run hot and that could lead to a more aggressive fed strokes long devil beard thoughtfully. Yeah, that kind of seems to be the theme, doesn’t it? We’re going to keep reporting labor shortage and talking about how great the job market is doing. So then it doesn’t seem quite so scary that the Fed keeps raising interest rates. Hmm, what do you know about that? On MarketWatch we find an interesting article titled, Morgan Stanley warns this corner of the credit market could be first to implode as interest rates rise. I want to read a little bit of that for you now. Now that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Tao has made it abundantly clear that the Fed has no plans to slow the pace of interest rate hikes. Some bond market experts are warning that the most speculative areas of the credit market might be in for a rude awakening. A team at Morgan Stanley warned that leveraged loans could be the canary in the credit coal mine, due to their floating interest rates and the increasingly poor credit worthiness of issuers. As the US economy slows, these borrowers can expect to be hit with a double whammy, as cash flows deteriorate while debt service costs rise. For those who are unfamiliar with this corner of the credit market, the term leveraged loans typically refers to a senior secured bank loans made to borrowers with a below investment grade credit rating. According to Wells Fargo investment Institute. Typically these loans are purchased by institutions, like investment banks, who then pool the loans and repackage them into collateralized loan obligations, which are then sold on to investors. The era of low interest rates that followed the great financial crisis of 2008 caused the leveraged loan market to balloon and quote, the more things change, the more they sound the same. Right? Does any of this sound familiar to you? If you caught Monday’s episode, Mephistopheles in Manhattan, I know it sounds familiar to you. If you were alive, and well, let’s say into adulthood and working a job, it’s probably going to sound familiar to you for that reason to remember ninja loans, no interest, no jobs or asset loans, no credit, no problem, no income, no problem, just come on in and get you some of this sweet free money 0% down mortgages, 125% financing. Here we are again. But just keep in mind all the AI and bots and corporate shills, in my opinion, and mansplaining is getting online telling you we could just never have another housing market crash, we could just never have another global financial crisis, why there’s so many safeguards in place that weren’t there in 2008. About a third of the way in to that money, power and impunity documentary, which you can find on Java discover highly recommend watching it. It’s very interesting. It’s not easy watching. It’s not something where you’re going to probably pop popcorn and put your feet up and enjoy the ride. It’s it’s pretty sad. But relevant, nonetheless highly relevant. If you don’t get deja vu from that I don’t, I don’t know where you’re at. But about a third of the way in on that documentary, they start to talk about the housing crisis. And they talked about how massive global banks made billions by packaging up toxic mortgage loans and toxic financial products and then selling them all around the globe. So back then, I guess they were called derivative loans. But nonetheless, they were junk loans and junk mortgages. And then like the whistleblower who is interviewed in that documentary, who tried to tell city, excuse me, but most of these mortgages don’t meet our quality standards, something is clearly wrong. Well, he gets shoved out the door. And business just keeps right on going and who goes to jail. Basically, no one, the main fat cats, the main perpetrators never went to jail for that. They just went right on down the line to keep on doing what they do. And the public forgets, please don’t forget this time, Don’t bury your head in the sand and don’t ignore this information about things happening in the economy. Maybe this time, we don’t get asked to bail out Wall Street. Or maybe this time, we don’t get asked to bail out a flailing housing market. That doesn’t mean that there’s not a bubble in the housing market. It also doesn’t mean that we won’t be asked to bail out someone. It doesn’t mean that some giant corporation won’t show up with their hat in their hand to the government saying hey, we’re going to need some of that taxpayer money. And it’s going to be up to the American taxpayer to provide that. Yeah, btw, they’re hiring a lot of new IRS agents and, gosh, you know, I’m sure they’re only going to audit the billionaire’s I’m sure they’re only going to audit these massive corporations on American soil and these billionaires that just have tons of money. I’m sure that’s all they’re going to do. Okay, also in in something else you need to be paying attention to in my opinion, Goldman Sachs lifts all COVID protocols, order staff to return to Office full time, I’ll drop a link to the article in new in the New York Post so that you can see it for yourself. I’ll read now, Wall Street giant Goldman Sachs will lift all COVID protocols that have kept some workers away as it pushes all employees to return to the office five days a week after Labor Day the post has learned in a memo sent Tuesday obtained by the post Goldman Sachs told workers it will no longer require vaccines COVID testing or masks signal it won’t accept excuses for employees who claimed COVID as a reason for working from home. There is significantly less risk of severe illness the memo stated in line with the CDC updated protocols. If you have not been coming into the office, please speak with your manager to ensure that you understand and adhere to your divisions current return to Office expectations. The official memo comes just days before the bank expects all employees to return to its offices five days a week sources at this is another way of Goldman Sachs saying schools in session and we want you in person. Right? Right, right because you know, grown adults are like school children. I’ve used that analogy before too. And not in a pleasant way. I’ll continue to read schools in session and we want you in person after Labor Day, Wells Fargo bank analyst Mike Mayo told the post, Goldman is the ultimate customer facing firm, and it’s tough to face customers remotely and quote, listen, if you tune into this podcast with any frequency, if you read my blog, if you’re over on Patreon or on medium, any place where I’m pushing out content, you already know what time it is, I have been warning about this for months, people were either going to take the Lord Ilan approach and just rip the band aid off, come on back to the office ASAP, or it’s your job, there’s the door. Or they might do it a little bit more subtly, well, we’re gonna put everybody on a pip, the old performance improvement plan and if you just can’t hang, then there’s the door. Or we’re gonna do it a little slower, a little bit more painfully kind of like the Python, it squeezes you a little bit more, and then it lets up and then it squeezes harder, and then it lets up, we’ll do some hell of half measures hybrid. And then when it becomes difficult and unwieldy. We’ll tell everybody to come on back or it’s your job. One way or the other, I really don’t see any way around it. I think a lot of companies are going to follow suit and say, Come back RTO or it’s your job. I cannot give you advice. I cannot tell you what to do. If it were me. And I if I were plugged in somewhere as a W two full time employee. And working from home was extremely important to me, I had really ironed out my domestic infrastructure around being at home and I did not want to go back to an office, I would not bury my head in the sand. I would not play games, I would not be a denialist I would pay very close attention to what my company was doing and what my other options were. In case they said Get your butt back in here or you’re fired. Just my two cents. We have made it last to Friday and is September 2 It’s also Labor Day weekend here in the States. So I hope that you are able to have Monday off and relax. We are due for some peace and quiet. Over on CNBC we have headlines such as major stock averages slide for third week, NASDAQ post six day losing streak. Here’s where the jobs are for August 2022 in one chart, and they show business and professional services being up 68,000. Okay, if they say so. One in five home sellers are now dropping their asking price as housing market cools, how quiet quitting became the next phase of the great resignation. Queue up Randy drab is singing I told you so because I predicted that. When I made my first episode about quiet quitting, I told you we would see more of it. And I predicted that as people got plugged into places and they started to get that uncomfortable feeling about the R word. You know the dirty R word we’re really not supposed to say right now recession. They would look around and think maybe this is not the most opportune time to keep hippity hopping across the job market. So what can I do to maybe make this a little bit more palatable, hence, quiet quitting. Over on Yahoo Finance, we see stocks tumble into the clothes into the clothes ahead of holiday weekend. All three major indexes lost more than 1% on Friday reversing gains of more than 1% early in the session ahead of a three day weekend for US investors, handful of states debate whether to tax forgiven student loans. August jobs report was what the inflation doctor ordered than warning all about that too. All of these hyped up inflated jobs reports in my opinion will be used as justification for the Fed to keep bumping up interest rates. I just don’t see any way around that. Why you can’t trust Friday’s jobs report and what it means for the s&p 500. Interesting. Let’s click on that. When we click on it, we’re taken to investors.com I’ll drop a link so you can check it out for yourself and I hope that you will. I’ll read from it now. evidence has mounted that the monthly jobs reports are way off the mark and that the labor market is much weaker than it appears. Yes. Yes. Oh, you can’t see me right now. But I have like a fist in the air like Yes, Yes, finally. Oh, Oh, this is a moment where I feel like the heavens could open up and little angels could strum their hearts. That suggests a recession may be closer at hand for the US economy than widely believed the implications for the s&p 500 are mixed to negative with lower interest rates and a weaker dollar offset. By a worsening earnings outlook volatility is a good bet. While the headline why you can’t trust Friday’s jobs report requires a high level of conviction. We have the receipts to back it up tax receipts. For what it’s worth. Wall Street expects Friday’s jobs report to show the US economy added 293,000 jobs in August as the unemployment rate held steady. Yet some economists have also begun to cast doubt on the accuracy of the monthly jobs reports UBS economist Jonathan Pingel, and colleagues wrote that predicting what the jobs report we’ll say has become less about forecasting, labor market fundamentals and more about war gaming, the surveys potential Miss measurement, and then they go on to present their evidence. Oh, I’m so glad. I’m so glad. I was starting to feel pretty lonely on this hill saying yeah, hey guys, so it kind of seems like these reports are full of hot air and bull sh i t in my opinion. So I’m so glad you have no idea. The more people that wake up, they get a job last survival plan put together, they have a little bit extra setback in case of emergency, the better off we will be. I feel like we have to stick together. Corporate America is going to protect itself Wall Street’s going to protect itself the government will as well. The more people that can be prepared, not scared going into an economic downturn, the better in my opinion. And so I hope that you will be able to do just that. I wish you a weekend of relaxation. Even if you’re not in the States. This podcast goes out globally. It’s if it’s not a holiday weekend for you. I still hope that you have a restful, peaceful weekend you’re able to stay safe, stay sane. And I will see you in the next episode.
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