05 Aug Have you pieced it together yet?
On Friday, 7/29, Yahoo Finance published this article, which you can find here: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/recession-economy-chart-explains-july-2022-153839171.html
From said article:
“U.S. economic output has contracted for the last two quarters, though a new report from economists at Bank of America (BofA) Global Research explains why this back-to-back drop in GDP is not going to lead to an official recession call anytime soon.” (emphasis mine)
You can’t make this stuff up.
Meanwhile, back at the ranch:
“A BANK OF AMERICA executive stated that ‘we hope’ working Americans will lose leverage in the labor market in a recent private memo obtained by The Intercept. Making predictions for clients about the U.S. economy over the next several years, the memo also noted that changes in the percentage of Americans seeking jobs ‘should help push up the unemployment rate.’
The memo, a ‘Mid-year review’ from June 17, was written by Ethan Harris, the head of global economics research for the corporation’s investment banking arm, Bank of America Securities. Its specific aspiration: ‘By the end of next year, we hope the ratio of job openings to unemployed is down to the more normal highs of the last business cycle.'” (emphasis mine)
I mean… to use the phrase du jour: come on, man.
From the Yahoo Finance article:
“Citing the 2.7 million jobs created in the first half of the year and a 3.6% unemployment rate, (Fed Chair Jerome) Powell told reporters on Wednesday: ‘It doesn’t make sense that the economy would be in recession with this kind of thing happening. So, I don’t think the U.S. economy’s in recession right now.'”
Have you pieced it together yet?
Why, we couldn’t possibly be in a recession! Look at how good and how strong and how robust the job market is! 3.6% unemployment rate. (Now, we didn’t count 5.7 million people to get that figure, but just ignore that little tidbit.) Two open jobs for every one unemployed person! (Do all of them pay a living wage? Have some of them been posted since the PPP loans were going? Are some complete BS jobs posted for optics only? Well, don’t consider that!) People are doin’ great! (I mean, yes, consumer sentiment is at a near-record low, people are struggling to pay their cell phone bills, people are using credit cards for necessity items, but overall… they’re doin’ great.)
Now, in the latest jobs report, we’re told that unemployment isn’t even 3.6%, why, it’s 3.5%! JOBS JOBS JOBS everywhere! Wages are surging higher!
Since everything is doing great, that next interest rate hike surely won’t have a negative impact. The economy is strong and things are rockin’n’rollin. Doin’ just fine! Every time you’re at the grocery store, it’s more expensive and sometimes the shelves are half empty. My electric bill has doubled. Water rationing is going on. More and more layoffs and hiring freezes but just ignore all of that.
“What do they know, know, know
Go to work in some high rise
And vacation down at the Gulf of Mexico
And there’s winners, and there’s losers
But they ain’t no big deal,
‘Cause the simple man baby pays the thrills,
The bills and the pills that kill…”
-“Pink Houses,” John Mellencamp
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